Leaderboard

So by common agreement we have a warm spell arriving. Do we bask in this prediction? Not some of you just arguing will it be 21 C 23 C or 25 C. For gawds sake stop bickering and enjoy the summer like weather for many areas for 2-3 days.

Perfect spring in my opinion beasts and snow aplenty to start March now temps in mid 20s here in the SE in mid April ?

Can't tell if you are joking or attempting to make fun out of the real fact of climate change in a weather forum.

As you were on the 7-day forecast mean

Morning all A new week but very different weather coming for large parts of the British Isles as a large LP stalls in mid-Atlantic and a plume of much warmer air moves from the SW leading to the formation of HP to the east and the importing of even warmer SE'ly air midweek. Some are claiming we could exceed 25c by Thursday - I'm sceptical - but certainly a spell of temperatures more akin to June than April seems on the cards with London experiencing several days with day time maxima above 20c. Will it last ? The medium term analysis this morning takes us to Thursday April 26th and starts as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: After the initial HP has declined, a ridge builds in from the Azores to promise a continuation of fine weather through the weekend but early next week the writing looks on the wall as LP moves down from the north and by T+240 the trough extends from Scandinavia through the far north of the British Isles with a cooler WNW'ly airflow in place. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Slightly more complex. GEM hurries the breakdown and the NW'ly is in place by next Monday. However, weak heights remain to the south but with slack troughs too in quite a messy synoptic evolution. By T+240 basically settled and especially so for central areas. Perhaps an increasing risk of showers for south-western areas and the far north west under an Atlantic influence with a threat of rain or drizzle. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Recognisably close to ECM though does have the messier evolution to the south of GEM. Cooler than in the coming week with a noticeable WNW'ly airflow and rain or showers especially for northern areas. The south perhaps hanging on to some better weather but nowhere near as warm as it will be in the coming week. Further into FI it all looks very average with attempted ridging from the Azores flattened by Atlantic LP systems and continued weakness to the south, especially over Iberia, as we often see as summer approaches, threatening more disturbed weather for southern parts. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: Not too different to the OP in all honesty. Further into FI very average with a W'ly flow. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 OP and Control following the Mean which you always like to see for verification and a strong cluster supporting that evolution. Just one Member keeping HP to the east but a few also interested in building Greenland heights once again though I would be sceptical. Further into FI no clear signal to end the month and start May. As you've all been well behaved, here's a treat with the 06Z OP at T+234: Make of that what you will. However, FI gets much more interesting with the trough to the SW deepening into a serious LP area and with heights building to the north and NW we get an E'ly !! Rain (and possibly plenty of it) for southern and south western parts but fine for the north but cool with a hint of NE in the air flow. In summary, a fine summer like spell of weather starts tomorrow or Wednesday (depends on your definition of summer I suppose) and the south should squeeze five or six decent days out of it, perhaps less so for northern areas. By early next week, all the models are indicating a breakdown to a more traditional Atlantic-dominated pattern but not because of a raging Atlantic by any means. Slack areas of LP and weak areas of HP proliferate and it's all quite messy for the last week of the month but temperatures will return to where they should be for most. No signs in far FI of anything too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry to be honest and for those following the old weather maxim of April going out "like a lamb" you may well be right.

Patchy rain in Scotland and the north of England will dissipate quickly this morning from the north west leaving the UK with a dry day with sunny periods and light winds Note at midnight the major Atlantic depression is down to 943mb. But by 1800 the low and associated fronts have slowly moved east and rain and strengthening winds are into N. Ireland and western Scotland. During the night this rain, heavy at times, and strong winds will track south east to include northern England and Wales but during the morning it will tend to fizzle out at it reaches the Midlands. Thus the south and east will remain dry and relatively clear. So by 1800 on Tuesday the Atlantic is dominated by a large and complex low pressure area coming up against a strengthening block to the E/SE as the Azores and European ridges amplify leaving the UK in a strong south westerly with temps above average. Overnight Tuesday the high pressure to the east continues to intensify and become more influential over the UK as it forms a high cell over Germany and spreads west whilst at the same time putting the upper trough to the west under pressure and this becomes more neutrally tilted.Thus a warm, dry day with plenty of sunshine and temps way above average. A not dissimilar picture on Thursday but the High pressure to the east ha become positively tilted and the trough to west has started to deconstruct under pressure from the twin upstream energy flows, in particular the strong jet leaving the south east seaboard. Thus the surface ridge over the UK comes under some pressure and resulting a freshening south westerly wind over north west Scotland But still dry and very warm day, even hot in the south east, with the temps way above average. By 1200 Friday the energy continues to exert pressure and the trough duly deconstructs with a cut off low popping south east towards Marrakesh with the ridge over the UK now tenuously supported by the Azores ridging north east from a long way to the south west. This results in the UK remaining dry and sunny with light winds and with temps still way above average, hot in places,with the exception still being north west Scotland that remains in a fresh southwesterly and patchy rain. Later on Friday perhaps a risk of some thundery activity drifting north from the continent. All of this is according to the GFS

Row brewing on mad thread as to whether its going to be 25c or 26c. Be careful in there if anyone decides to venture in.

Spring has arrived is Costa del Redcar up to the dizzy heights of 15 degrees and about time. Rest of the week looking gorgeous is our region.

Predicted temperature? Wrong. It started off with predicted highs of 23C on beeb then to 25C now 26C. GFS is notorious for being 1-2C under with warm weather, it consistently under-does it years of experience. It upgrading the temps I’d say are more in line with the actual outcome.

I get you now! That's normally the issue in these setups we can have large CAPE values showing, but being under the influence of high pressure and lack of moisture can be an issue. I would agree that isolated thunderstorms have the possibility of forming, using Friday for example. We have sufficient diurnal heating, a few convergence zones developing and the introduction of a cold front from the NW, I think we may see storms form from West Midlands and later in the day transfer SE. Must take caution but details at this stage are uncertain but using merely as an example. Certainly as you say as pressure begins to decrease late weekend, early next week we could see something a little more widespread. EDIT: Oh and I forgot, though not model discussion, Skew-T's will give us a better idea closer to the time.

If 26c is hit during this week it will be the hottest day since August 29th

Looking at the output this morning you have to wonder whether some places will see their first thunderstorms this year. Conditions look favourable over northern france for storm development. IMO the atmosphere looks too stable here but we may get lucky and see some cross the channel. Late next weekend into early next week looks more likely for home grown storms if the 00z GFS is to be believed. However GFS has a tendancy to overdo CAPE. Either way its looking notably warm for mid April and very summer like. Hopefully not too hot for the London marathon on Sunday. PS I think ANYWEATHER is getting confused between weather and climate yet again. I will just leave it at that...

No Anyweather was making the point that when snoway said he thought cold spells late april early may where becoming more regular that this was nothing new and I remember in the 70's 80's this being true. Climate has always changed in cycles the only question is has man made those cycles more pronounced my answer is unlikely

Ditto

I got a lot done in the garden over the weekend, and the first official washing hung oot on Saturday!

20 years in the dry slot on the radar nooooooooooooooooo

Just for fun,,,,1st May on GFS 12z showing MIDDAY MAXIMUMS

Only because it won't be 26c in Manchester though?. Good old SE always the best place from now until autumn

12z ECM keeping the lows a bit further north so far

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.7C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 76.7mm 121.4% of average

Regarding the tripod, I'd strongly advise against getting a cheap one there! I got one last time and it was the most useless tripod I've ever had and prevented me taking long exposures of lightning if there was the slightest breeze. Had to tape it up within a few days too as it was broken pretty much out of the box. There may be some better ones available somewhere like Best Buy but I'm planning on getting a decent (£40-50) travel tripod before I go this time.

I think that’s nonsense it reached almost 20C in Northolt on Saturday with much less inspiring warm air advection for warmth compared to later this week. It will reach at least 25-26C very warm mid week in London area with unbroken sunshine the temperature will shoot up with ease. Warmest weather in the east and southeast, standard stuff. Urban areas warm up quickly and retain ‘heat’ much better than rural green areas, night temps will be notably warmer. Very unusual summer warmth to come for some.

16.1°C here now. I would say Wednesday maximum 25°C somewhere with foehn influences such as Crosby, Valley, Porthmadog,, Hawarden. Thursday27°C somewhere in the Greater London area.

I never intended to directly define wavelength, my answer was portended to help Mike with his questions. Wavelength in it self is does not require much talk, I intended to discuss around the topic to help promote Mike's wider thinking.

Not sure where these maxes of 26/27C are coming from. .... Anywhere will struggle to get anything of 23C or higher let alone 27C. Any strong sunshine will result in high evapotranspiration rates so unless there is some mixing of dry air from just above the boundary layer then dew points will be quite high. But at same time the near surface temperatures will not be as high as they could be if we had just experienced a very dry March and first half of April with plenty of sunshine. Models just may not factor this in correctly.

Right....the models are within the reliable timeframe now for some serious warmth. I have to say not to my liking as the last thing I want on my waik to the station each morning is to feel too warm and sticky in my suit, followed by a warm train journey (They surely won't turn off the heating for another few weeks!) The time to buy a fan is now, before the rush comes! I wonder if we will see a return to colder arctic air after this week as some model runs have hinted at? Would remind me of early May 1997 where days of scorchers were soon followed by a bank holiday weekend which featured snow!

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 Apr 2018 ISSUED 11:09 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan To the rear of the cold front/occlusion, some marginal instability may develop as mid-levels cool atop moist low-level airmass. Post-frontal trough may provide the focus for a few heavy showers during the early hours of Tuesday, organised in a rather linear fashion given the strongly sheared environment. Any lightning will likely be rather isolated (if any at all) given limited cloud depth, but some heavy showers with strong gusts of wind are possible. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-16

8.2 to the 15th 1.3 above the 61 to 90 average 0.5 above the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 8.2 to the 15th

It’s 14C, sweltering! Was beautiful earlier, the usual cloud is rapidly infilling the sky now, boo

As you were this morning, with Thursday looking like the peak of the heat: Some very warm air over the E/SE will result in temps hitting the mid twenties. Afterwards it's a slow decline as the high loses its influence, but the weekend still looking fine for many with the warmest air holding on in the south. More westerly into next week, with the warm air swept away. Not desperately unsettled, just more seasonal. Enjoy this week folks!

Satellite 0550 UTC

The sun is blank again 1 day blank, 64 for 2018 61% Solar flux 71

Much done outdoors yesterday and today. But spurt of rain 6-ish this evening. Stars now though - surprised.

Nothing new with that it snowed in June yes June 2nd 1975 in southern Britain ,there is nothing new under the sun , I wonder what the crazy climate change folks would blame that on now if that happened. ...perhaps man made climate change

Sunny morning murky afternoon, now raining. Headed to Burntisland where the sun was a little more abundant. Also went to Kinghorn to see if we could spot the hump backs been spotted this year.

Your general area northern Scotland is warmest in the land.. heatwave!

Lovely warm spring day here with hazy sunshine. few snaps from dug walk. Deer have been really common around here of late. Getting photos is tricky though as they of course always keep a respectable distance. @Hairy Celt Enjoy the summer rubber. Had my first outing on mine yesterday.

Yep. Haar burned off here about midday and the thermometer has been between 13C and 15C since. Very pleasant indeed, a day to shed the winter blues. Ms HC flapping blankets out of the upstairs windows. Re swallows - we saw 2, separately, fly swiftly past on Islay a few days ago. They didn't hang around and I can't say I blamed them.

hot and sunny out

This is not the Climate thread, let's keep to current model outputs please. Thanks.

I think what we can can all agree on is Vitamin D3 is very important for our health and in reality we don't get enough sun in this country to benefit our health. Being a long way north doesn't help as the the further north (and south) you go from the equator the weaker the sun is so you generate less D3.

Oh no I agree, I cannot stand those who get all high and mighty for having a "healthy lifestyle". I'm lucky in a way that I never tan, only burn, so never get complacent with the sun from March to September and slap on the sun screen.

After a taste of summer during the coming week, ECM takes us back into some chillier air as we move into the final full week of April

Overnight after the occlusion has cleared showers will be the order of the day with some more concentrated in the north west before morning before a generally dry day in the brisk south west wind. But by evening the frontal rain associated with the deep depression in mid Atlantic has encroached over Ireland and western Scotland. Temps around average.

This is my notes on my anomaly file this morning Sunday 15 april http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Ec-gfs some changes from above (charts copied on Thursday), neither have such a marked ridge indeed ec has none, and does suggest fairly unsettled weather would be likely if it is correct Noaa keeps more ridging thus a settled pattern remains if it is nearer what transpires 2 for one pattern and one for another? Usually noaa is closer to the upper air actual over the period-as ver time will tell. The 8-14 NOAA shows a flattish not overly strong atalntic flow into a trough just west of the UK.

Blue tits have been busy nest building

Some of the experienced posters in here have been prepared to comment on the weather we might expect in June based on a few warm days in April whereas I am not very confident of my interpretation of the current model output even at just +216 hours. Oh, heck - I'll have a go anyway....we all have to start somewhere! ECM and JMA seem to be almost on the same page with a more settled outlook around the 22/23 April: GFS and GEM however see things differently and are proposing more of an Atlantic influence bringing unsettled and cooler weather back again: So it does appear that the models can't agree yet on how the month will progress. Perhaps things will stay warm and settled for many of us which would be a very welcome change from the cold early Spring we have endured this year.

Some large cells heading across the channel heading towards kent now but no sparks. I think the sea is just too cold at the moment. Still hopeful however that these cells will pass over, as I adore the sound of rain pounding on the roof and windows late at night. So relaxing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9d08d561ce30&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1 My take on this is what has been suggested for a long time now, is that increased melting of Arctic Ice Cap would slow down the North Atlantic Drift because of the different specific gravities between saline sea water and fresh sea water. This would appear to be happening now and as it progresses the warming effect on North West Europe would gradually decrease. I wouldn't expect it to stop just there because the normal sinking of saline water in the Arctic is one of the main drivers of the global sea currents, so I would expect a knock on effect. Quite what the results of that would be, I don't really have the foggiest - it is well beyond my pension grade to work out. I can only guess that with a decreased speed of general circulation would allow tropical waters to get warmer whilst northern waters cool.

Redshank on the river Mersey,Pickering's pasture