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Showing most liked content on 04/04/18 in all areas

  1. 10 likes
    Yep, dead lambs up in the Lomonds today Our road is completely blocked for the second time in four weeks. Usually it happens every few years! But the very low sun came out just as it was setting and cast East Lomond in the weirdest light. Looks so inviting!
  2. 10 likes
    Some great images today. You’ve had a year for the ages @101_North Reporting on from Lusaka, Zambia where it was a lovely 26c on arrrival this afternoon and I’m sitting out in a tshirt having a beer!
  3. 6 likes
    My view re the burglary might come across as a bit heartless to some members but the emotional impact on people who have had their homes burgled or even worse had this happen whilst in their homes can be huge . Because in the majority of cases there’s no physical harm to the victims it’s often downplayed as a lower level offense. The effects can last for years , even forcing people to move home, it can lead to severe depression and PTSD. How we react to this crime is very personal , it very much depends on how we view our homes and how we view the world around us. The home can be seen as an extension of the self , the more we see that home as a safe space also effects the impact . Often burglary can be the last straw for some people , the one place where they could build that safe space is violated and will often never feel the same again. Its for this reason I have a particularly low opinion of those who violate that safe space. I have in my career worked with victims of burglary, this tragic case of the pensioner being met with this terrifying situation in their own home is thankfully rare. He has to live with those events and wonder whether he could have acted differently ,of course we don’t know the full details yet and those will come out in time. But we need to put ourselves in that situation and wonder how we’d react , it’s very easy in the cold light of day to question how this could have happened. Unless the burglar was running away and then got stabbed then this murder charge seems completely over the top .
  4. 5 likes
    Great pic 101. Here's Currie Kirk earlier, just visible through the snow covered trees.
  5. 5 likes
    Great work ! You deserve a break now before we start again in November (hopefully) ! I'm off to sunny Moray golfing tomorrow and weekend. Should be an interesting drive up through the Highlands.
  6. 5 likes
    Getting an utter pasting here! Bloody surreal this :)!
  7. 5 likes
    Good timing today sheep in off field and lorry arrives five minutes later,sheep loaded clean and off to Skye before 9.00am. However driver who has been coming here for nearly 40 years with the sheep said that in most years farms carry forward a surplus of feed from one year to the next but this year there is none almost everywhere.He said that if the summer is poor again and little feed is conserved there will be a mass sell off of livestock from the N and W of Scotland in the autumn. He also said he had never seen our road so muddy. With everything being so backward I have been telling friends for a while that this will be an historical spring .Even on my local forecast on here for next week night time temperatures will not be conducive for grass growth. I think too with a southerly tracking jet probably accentuated by a sleepy sun then above may come true. Currently 2c Just looked at the model thread and their is a chance of more cold weather mid month!!!!!!
  8. 5 likes
    Certainly firming up on another easterly (trending colder over time if the euro trough stays solid). Well supported on spreads, ens and ops.
  9. 4 likes
    The snow has been falling for hours but it's not settling very well. The snow is coming from over your left shoulder looking at this pic, the grass is clear in the "shadow" of the house: I would assume places higher up not far from here are getting a pasting. Remember it's to be -3C tonight so expect a little ice in the morning.
  10. 4 likes
    A proper 'late in the game' miss from the Met Office this one!
  11. 4 likes
    Turning heavier. Picture of Lanark road near the Ricci.
  12. 3 likes
  13. 3 likes
    The above is found within the link: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP99-111/RP99-111.pdf The strange thing is Alexis, if you look at the chart of the recording of indictable offences from 1900 to 1997, you will see that during the time of the Great Depression there was little rise in crime and at the same time there was little generosity in welfare: "In August 1931, the 1911 scheme was replaced by a fully government-funded unemployment benefit system.[15] This system, for the first time, paid out according to need rather than the level of contributions. This unemployment benefit was subject to a strict means test, and anyone applying for unemployment pay had to have an inspection by a government official to make sure that they had no hidden earnings or savings, undisclosed source(s) of income or other means of support. For many poor people, this was a humiliating experience and was much resented." Strangely enough the episodes of the 'Peaky Blinders' as depicted in the TV series had little effect, however, though in fact the Peaky Blinders did exist I understand that it was dramatised and taken out of context historically. so not too much attention should be given to that. The rise in crime came with the more affluent period starting off in the 1960's, which were initially times of low unemployment. The only real reason I can think of for this, based on what I heard older people say when I was a child, that during this time society changed. During the times of the Great Depression there was much less movement of people, meaning that communities were more static with more people knowing each other. Those who committed crime were subject to a social stigma and this was a deterrent to many. Also penalties were much more severe - in those pre war days there was still capital punishment, the birch, imprisonment with hard labour and the police had much more leeway in the administration of summary justice i.e. a cuff round the young tearaway's ear, whereas today it could amount to a sacking offence. It was then a more 'no nonsense society' and there was still a hangover of Victorian values and self respect with more respect for others so much more important. I would suggest that the criminals of today do not have self respect in the manner understood by most and clearly by committing crime against others they have little or no respect for their victims. The 1960's also coincided with more liberal values - this was the time the 'do gooders' started creeping in with an attitude that it was society to blame rather than the individual criminal. I can only skip over the surface of all this but would suggest that it could make the basis of a study to determine why the poor man of the 1930's should have been much less tempted into a life of crime than today's man. Quite clearly, we have not got it anything like right yet.
  14. 3 likes
    Wouldn't rule out some quite interesting clouds tomorrow , level 1 in France mainly for hail but it's welcome back storm season
  15. 2 likes
    Don't call Sadio Mane that .... He nodded it in with his horns! 3 -0 now MIA
  16. 2 likes
    -11c and snowing here..soon be xmas
  17. 2 likes
    Embarrassing for our Government. No evidence so far just circumstantial. The new cold war continues and we don't seem very good at it.
  18. 2 likes
    I don't know how far my dad's is below sea level guess right on it but we got very heavy sleet here say go 2 or so miles up the road asda/tesco it's pretty heavy snow
  19. 2 likes
    There was a maximum of just 25.0C here that day, as the wind was a fairly strong onshore south-easterly which supressed temperatures. Its a common theme in hot spells this close to the coast. We usually record the warmest days just as the hot spell is breaking down as the wind tends to switch offshore - much like the example WH posts above. In the spell in July 2015, the 4th was actually warmer for us with a max of 26.3C, as the wind switched to the south-west.
  20. 2 likes
    Hi. Heavy wet snow in Cambuslang all morning, not lying though. Forecast for same till 4 or 5pm. Radar looks good, almost 3/4 Scottish mainland has snow !
  21. 2 likes
  22. 2 likes
    Scotland used to have much worse problem with moncultural white christian British gangs. We were the violent crime capital of Europe under direct British Tory 'centre right string em up' rule. Was in a big part the result of the high net emigration brexiters seek! We've dramatically reduced violence using 'left liberal' ideas while making Glasgow a diverse, multicultural European city which now attracts migrants. But let's just ignore facts eh! Just out of curiosity, which party is in power in EVEL England / in overall charge of policing and has been for close to a decade? You need to not massively slash police funding too; that and put more bobbies on the beat. This is what we've done in Scotland. Hopefully the highest ranking police officer in England has found our experience useful.
  23. 2 likes
    Here is the latest thrilling update of r O b o T i c ___ 4 Ca S T e r S They walk among us !! ___ Past months ____ ____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54 1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41 Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34 * becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward. ________ Current Month __________________________ Contest year averages to date (4 mo)___ "Forecaster" _Mar Error_Mar Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank 1988-2017 ___ +1.9 _____ 20.8 - 22.1 ____ 60 to 61 ________ 1.15 ______52.0 - 56.2 __ 33 to 36 1981-2010 ___ +1.7 _____ 26.1 - 26.1 ____ 57 to 57 ________ 1.075_____ 53.4 - 56.1 __ 32 to 34 Consensus ___--0.3 _____ 78.9 - 85.5 ____ 12 to 17 ________ 0.725_____ 64.3 - 68.6 __ 23 to 26 __________________________________________________________________ Our consensus continues to improve vs the random "normal" values for recent 30-year intervals as most forecasters pick up signs of an impending significant negative anomaly in both February and now for March. The errors are scored as in the contest, among those of similar magnitude. In March, no forecaster picked 6.6 (the 1981-2010 normal value) but one had 3.2, a similar error in the opposite direction, and that forecast's rank and points are used. For the more recent normal 1988-2017 one forecast matched its value (6.8) and another was a similar amount below (3.0) the outcome (4.9). Meanwhile, six forecasters were among the group with the same absolute error (only 0.3 deg) as our consensus, three matching it and three a similar distance above the outcome. Eleven forecasts were better than our consensus. If these robot forecasters were in the contest, they would be ranked about where their mean rank lies, possibly a bit higher but not much (can't directly compare because there are other score variables which I don't track for them such as accuracy points). In general, none of these are performing as well as they did in the previous year when they all ended up in the top ten. The average errors (not absolute) of the three so far come out to -0.2 for consensus (our bias is cold), +0.5 for 1981-2010 and +0.85 for 1988-2017. The normals are proving to be unreliably warm in the past two months, they were closer in the first two. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ THE NEXT EXCITING EPISODE OF rObOTi C __F or EC asT e Rs may occur about this time next month. Find something more important to do. "We will be back."
  24. 2 likes
    London's inner city gun/knife culture is on a totally different level to what anyone on here may have seen in other cities over last 20 years or so. The majority of crimes are gang related turf wars between different racial cultures. Hide behind social worker failed ideals of last 50 years if u want.
  25. 1 like
    I think that is exactly what is being investigated at the moment. They have to cover everything. Manslaughter will probably end up the charge if it goes to court at all. He'll plead not guilty, self defence, and should be fine. I don't think it'll get to court though.
  26. 1 like
    Can Johnson survive the latest debacle? Always thought the man was a walking disaster but outright lieing by any FS surely cannot be tollerated?
  27. 1 like
    Damit!! how the hell did that get out!......That was in my younger days,thankfully much better looking now. Must admit though some of the supporting cast bare a uncanny resemblance to a a couple of UKIP supporter's i once met! Believe it or not but honestly one of my nicknames at school 35/40 year ago was Captain Caveman....and i'm not joking!
  28. 1 like
    Violent HP supercell with two EF 5 tornadoes and a touch of drizzle here .
  29. 1 like
  30. 1 like
    did you know that i'm a celebrity goat me out of here is s hite
  31. 1 like
  32. 1 like
    Absolutely torrential now and proper convective drops. This could electrify atany moment.
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    Now, every entrants NAP so far and points value. ANTONYBR7 - S.Garcia 28/1 = (MINUS 4pts) GHONEYM - X.Schauffele 70/1 = (MINUS 5 pts) HAYLEYBR7 - J.Rose 14/1 = (MINUS 2 pts) KIRKCALDY WEATHER - P.Casey 25/1 = (MINUS 3 pts) MATTNEAL - P.Casey 25/1 = (MINUS 3 pts) PAULBR7 - J.Spieth 12/1 = (MINUS 2 pts) PHIL NW - J.Rose 14/1 = (MINUS 2 pts) SUXER - R.McIlroy 8/1 = (MINUS 2 pts) TOMSE12 - M.Kuchar 66/1 = (MINUS 5 pts) Above bonus points were based on Bookmaker's prices, at time of starting Masters thread. Regards, Tom.
  35. 1 like
    Wasn’t expecting it ( cause I never watched the forecast ) but woke up to a layer of slush and more snow falling ...... looks bloomin freezing yet again! Thanks for sharing your news More Snow....... ive had a great Winter reading your snow reports
  36. 1 like
    Careful. Soon you'll be accused of mild bias and being a troll
  37. 1 like
    Thanks Leon! It was a good day thanks.. looking forward to the weekend: GIN TIME oh, and introducing my friends to Cards against Humanity game too.
  38. 1 like
    Be careful with the word glacier there, you may get jumped on for hyping things up but I see where your coming from Brrr 15c in my back yard today
  39. 1 like
    That mild start and colder turn around 4th-5th is a bit unusual, even as these 30-year means often do show some variability from a longer-period curve that "follows the sun." I looked at the data for 1981-2010 and the years which contribute the most to this start of April oscillation would be these in the following table where daily CET values are shown for 1st to 7th). They are listed in the order of greatest differential (1-3) to (4-7) for any days which correlates with the last entry, change in mean temp from 1-3 to 4-7. To get into the list, at least one day out of 1-3 has to be warmer than any day in the period 4-7. Any year that has a colder mean for 4-7 than 1-3 is in this list (out of the 30 available 1981-2010) except 1997 (a cold 4th otherwise all seven days mild, max on 6th) and 1998 which was fairly flat-lined from 1st to 6th and dipped slightly on the 7th and 2009 which had a warmer 7th and no particularly cold days although the mean dropped slightly. The years most opposite to this unusual trend were 1982 (which became very warm), 1984 (which started quite cold), 1993 and 2010 (both fairly average but warming faster than long-term trend). Cases shown in the table such as 1988, 1995, 1999 and 2007 were weak examples and 1981, 1994 which showed the effect in a rather subdued trend curve. Any years not in the list or mentioned in the discussion (such as 1983 etc) were fairly average and saw a general increase as one might expect from the solar (main) driver of these trends. It can be inferred from all of these facts that the unusual trend curve began around 1985 and lasted to about 2008. As shown later, it has not been a factor in years after the 30-year normal period ended in 2010. YEAR ___ 01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 04 __ 05 __ 06 __ 07 ___ gr diff ___ avg temps ___ change _2008 __10.0__9.9_10.9___ 10.3 _ 6.6 _ 1.7 _ 4.0 ____ 9.2 ____ 10.3 __ 5.7 ___ --4.6 _1990 __11.0__9.9_ 4.7 ____ 2.4 _ 3.0 _ 4.3 _ 6.1 ____ 8.6 _____ 8.5 __ 4.0 ___ --4.5 _1989 __10.0__6.6_ 4.4 ____ 2.9 _ 2.4 _ 4.1 _ 6.1 ____ 7.6 _____ 7.0 __ 3.9 ___ --3.1 _2006 __ 9.9 __8.6_ 7.7 ____ 4.4 _ 3.2 _ 5.9 _ 6.5 ____ 6.7 _____ 8.7 __ 5.0 ___ --3.7 _2002 __11.3_10.0_13.4 ___ 11.0 _ 9.9 _ 8.2 _ 7.2 ____6.2 ____ 11.6 __ 9.1 ___ --2.5 _2004 __11.4_11.7_ 9.4 ____ 8.9 _ 7.9 _ 6.3 _ 6.8 ____ 5.4 ____ 10.8 __ 7.5 ___ --3.3 _2005 __10.4_12.3_10.5 ____9.5 _ 7.3 _ 9.3 _ 7.1 ____ 5.2 ____ 11.1 __ 8.3 ___ --2.8 _2000 __ 5.3 _ 8.2 _ 4.5 ____ 3.3 _ 5.1 _ 4.8 _ 6.3 ____ 4.9 _____ 6.0 __ 4.8 ___ --1.2 (cold to colder) _1985 __10.6_10.9_12.4____ 9.6 _10.0_ 9.1 _ 8.1 ____ 4.3 ____ 11.3 __ 9.2 ___ --2.1 _2001 __11.2_11.4 _ 8.4 ____ 6.9 _ 7.1 _ 9.0 _ 6.9 ____ 4.3 ____ 10.3 __ 7.5 ___ --2.8 _1991 __ 9.0 _ 9.7 _ 7.3 ____ 7.1 _ 7.0 _ 5.6 _ 8.2 ____ 4.1 _____ 8.7 __ 7.0 ___ --1.7 _1986 __ 5.8 _ 3.7 _ 4.1 ____ 4.6 _ 4.0 _ 3.4 _ 1.8 ____ 4.0 _____ 4.5 __ 3.5 ___ --1.0 (cold to colder) _1999 __13.1_11.6_ 9.0 ____12.3_12.8_12.7_ 9.4 ____ 3.7 _____11.2 _11.7 ___ +0.5 (weak case) _1995 __13.3_11.0_ 9.9 ____ 9.8_10.2 _12.8_11.8 ____ 3.5 _____11.4 _11.2 ___ --0.2 (weak case) _2007 ___9.4__9.4_ 6.5 ____ 6.3 _ 8.7 _ 9.3 _ 8.5 ____ 3.1 _____ 8.4 __ 8.2 ___ --0.2 (weak case) _1988 ___5.8__8.9_ 8.4 ____ 7.5 _ 5.9 _ 7.0 _ 7.9 ____ 3.0 _____ 7.7 __ 7.1 ___ --0.6 (weak case) _1981 ___8.0__8.4_ 7.7 ____ 5.6 _ 6.6 _ 6.8 _ 7.1 ____ 2.8 _____ 8.0 __ 6.5 ___ --1.5 (effect subdued) _1994 ___7.1__4.8_ 5.6 ____ 5.2 _ 5.2 _ 6.3 _ 5.9 ____ 1.9 _____ 5.8 __ 5.6 ___ --0.2 (effect subdued) Has the effect continued since 2010? These are the daily means of the seven years since the normal period ended. _2011 __ 12.8_13.3_ 8.8 ____ 7.9_11.6_15.1_12.0 ____ ---- _____11.6__11.7 ___ +0.1 _2012 ___5.5__7.1_ 8.3 ____ 4.2 _ 5.5 _ 3.8 _ 7.9 ____ 4.5 _____ 7.0 __ 5.4 ___ --1.6 _2013 ___1.9__2.7_ 2.7 ____ 2.8 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 3.4 ____ ---- _____ 2.4 __ 3.5 ___ +1.1 _2014 __11.1_11.3_10.6 ____10.9_10.5_12.7_11.6____ ---- _____11.0__11.4 ___ +0.4 _2015 ___6.2__7.2_ 8.4 ____ 8.5 _ 9.0 _ 8.1 _ 8.7 ____ ---- ______7.3 __ 8.6 ___ +1.3 _2016 ___5.5__9.9_10.0 ___10.3 _ 9.0 _ 7.5 _ 7.3 ____ ---- ______8.5 __ 8.5 ____ 0.0 _2017 __11.1__9.8_ 9.4 ____10.7 _ 7.9 _ 7.9 _ 8.0 ____ 3.2 _____10.1 __ 8.8 ___ --1.3 _mean __ 7.7__8.6__8.2 ____ 7.9 _ 8.3 _ 8.4 _ 8.4 ____ ---- _____ 8.3 __ 8.3 ___ 0.0 From the above it can be seen that the anomalous effect is almost extinguished from the data after 2010, although there is a faint trace of it evident from the slightly higher mean for the 2nd than other dates. The effect seemed to be at its peak in the 1990s and 2000s decades. The most significant fact uncovered in this data analysis is that 12 cases judged to be strongly supporting the unusual trend were balanced against only three that were unusually positive (exaggerated "normal" trend). Many other years had just weak trends in this period, but with 13/30 strongly pushing down (they averaged a decrease of 2.7 deg) this explains the rather salient anomaly mentioned in the previous post.
  40. 1 like
    Nothing convective-wise here however it was ominously dark towards the east in confirmation with the NWRadar as the cell was passing around Nottingham. Tomorrow is looking promising for more of the same with a larger swathe of the midlands-north seeing some heavy showers in the afternoon.
  41. 1 like
    1962 was a wet cool summer - just sayin'
  42. 1 like
    If it were dry and warm now we would be getting those saying we were using up all the nice days now and were destined for a poor summer. Luckily no one knows what this year will bring.
  43. 1 like
    I always believed Glasgow and the west was wetter but warmer, the east was colder and drier. Which doesn't answer your question at all
  44. 1 like
    5.3 to the 2nd 1.5 below the 61 to 90 average I'll add the 81 to 90 data when it updates to the 3rd shortly
  45. 1 like
  46. 1 like
    What a complete and utter load of tosh, you really do come out with some garbage. Arab states either gave refuge to or, were complicit in the escape of any number of SS officers, fact. I note that you didn't bother to make reference to my examples regarding Syria All you ever do on here is to scream racism at anyone with an opinion which differs from your own. I'll tell you what , you push the ignore button for me , and I'll do the same for you. Like the old saying goes, "You can't reason with stupid"
  47. 1 like
    Aren’t you conflating different issues SS? I read the Guardian and no way would I say it was centre right . And I’m left but think most of the Green policies are a fantasy , does that make me centre right ? In terms of the SNP the Guardian would be Sturgeons biggest cheerleader if she was south of the border and not pushing for Independence . Would you call current Labour centre right because they don’t support Scottish Independence?
  48. 0 likes
    Former England captain Ray Wilkins has died aged 61
  49. 0 likes
  50. 0 likes
    Holiday weekend rainfall totals for the east - nearly a month's worth for some locations. For those who've read my posts over the last few days, I'm sad to report that the swan's nest on my local river didn't survive the Sun/Mon deluge and renewed (worse) flooding that followed. There was no sign of nest or swans today (Tues). But hopefully they will be back to try again in due course.
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