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Afternoon- Its a difficult call this - However the operationals working towards the very solution could hold the key- The last beast the other day the Ensembles were 24-36 hours behind the operations in delivering the deep cold, the operationals were there / thereabouts by day 5- But prior to that the model tendancies were to drop the high pressure & undercutting further SE at day 6 & 7 (144 & 168 ) Heres a great example of 'bias' from the ECM I we compare the 168 chart with the actual chart we see the high pulled back but also significantly more troughing to our East- Taking todays ECM 168 It doesnt take much of a leap of faith to forecast that theres a higher probability of the cold being curved Further west if the ECM is applying the same bias - Of course we cant assume it be the same again, however considering its very similar synoptics at a ver similar timescale then we could almost forecast a westward correction in the next 24 hours.... S

168 > 216 over scotland - Record date cold Lying Snow - Check Deep upper cold - Check Stationary Air - Check Sub -15c anyone?

Tweet from BBC / Meteogroup suggests they buy ECM route perhaps with the low a bit further SE. talk of snow in the south over Easter

WOW Snow clearing the SE - Snow showers following through from the NE - probably trough activity... Bitterly cold.

There's plenty of support from the GEFS 6z for a cold / very cold wintry Easter with overnight frosts, ice and a risk of snow, there is also some support for further cold weather into early april.

As we approach April, the models perhaps not very surprisingly showing the first sustained northerly of the year - April and May are renowned for them. Strong heights to the NW, locked in trough digging into Europe. What is perhaps more surprising is the depth of cold shown by the models still lurking to the north, every chance low level snowfall, and severe frosts over easter - if the ECM comes off. Very cold charts shown this evening and this is a recurring trend now..

Thanks Ecm, looks even more wintry than the 00z..great trend ??❄❄

ECM 144 shows that is now odds on a decent cold / very cold spell out to day 10 for the North ( North of say Leeds ) Further south if your searching for cold the the trough needs to sink a la control or operational-

ECM Control looks tasty - channel low at days 6-7. Possibly a foot of snow in the capital (yes that's a ramp!).

ECM could be weighing in with the big guns here - note the high not sliding now

Haven't we been here before when everything downgrades, hasn't this happened with the last two cold spells and then eventually everything upgrades and BOOM before you know it, it's snowing in your back yards

Mean omega block at 312! That's very strong support for a N'ly.

The North less risky and the far North guaranteed some cold but looking at the spread of solutions, I could make a case for the SW, the South and parts of midlands, and the SE to get huge dumpings. in other words, more risky but potentially some huge rewards on offer.

'Hold on tight'... The stakes are on an' upwards trickle- via a notable run and jump into easter!.. A whole array of data to trawl through... But news making(this time of year weather)...gaining!!! Data to follow soon !!!!!

168- unsettled with snow flurries in many areas Could be severe frost in the North to open Good Friday...

According to the BBC weather today I've been relocated to the the middle of the Channel, Romney Marsh is a bit damp but not quite that wet

I'll take this from the ECM . Nice .

This was the end of the sunset that kept ducking in and out of my mirrors this eveing as I got towards home. Eventually I stopped and got the camera out, possible a minute or few on the late side.

As shown above, the ECM has spells of snow over much of the UK next week. In fact, it follows on from its last two runs well - snow for midlands Tuesday/Wednesday, snow further south Friday. That would be three separate snow events in the space of one month!! It's still so close, but as Steve Murr mentioned earlier today, we've seen all of these situations correct west this month as T0 approaches, so plenty to play for. Again!!!

Cold coming back south at T240 with a northerly, bonkers!

Tonight's Ecm 12z is nothing short of epic for the end of march..it's beautiful!???

Verging on epic territory at T168:

As steve mentioned, the GEM 00z is the pick of the bunch, it turns cold everywhere and puts scotland in the freezer, there are some extremely cold nights for the time of year with severe frosts..remarkable stuff for the end of march / early april!

Blizzard 1 alert! Blizzard 2 alert! South gets buried... Sleep tight..

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is better / colder for more of the uk than earlier..for the north it's epic for the time of year and further south it's heading in the right direction. There could be yet another very wintry hurrah next week and the way this spring is going..it may not be the last!❄❄..it's Exciting!

EPS mean looking splendid at 144 as well.

?

Thursday morning colder at -15c min over the cairngorm glenns. Parts of the south midlands are -11c over snowfields..... must be a date record going if those numbers verified

Lovely jubbly ? ECM T168

Evening all Dearie me, that GFS 06Z OP was an outlier apparently.. Nobody bothered to tell the ECM 12Z.

ECM looking still on for the third cold outbreak at T144: ECM on the cold side of the 12s. More runs needed, but this run looks very good.

The set up looks tantalizingly close to something exceptional for the time of year with some remarkable cold to the ne. The depth of cold for the end of March is extremely rare which means the stakes are high for coldies . The GEFS have loads of different solutions in terms of trough set up which really reduce confidence in the outlook. The main issue at present is the hang back of low heights to the nw and the depth of low pressure near the UK, and also the amount of trough disruption, there’s a reluctance to drive sufficient energy into central southern Europe. A lot to be resolved but the early timeframe is important as it sets the boundary for the initial cold, in terms of how close that is to the UK. It could still go either way.

So GFS 06z says "I guess some of you must be fed up getting frozen by a bitter easterly it is April after all - OK change of scene, let's build a solid Greenland High and blast you all with a frigid northerly instead" LOL - FI extreme but based on recent form I wouldn't bet against it!

And you really couldn’t completely rule out a barbecue Monday in e England if that system stalls for a couple of days. It’s that time of year and would be typical if the weather made mugs of the written media by delivering the opposite of what they have predicted.

I wished it was..... exeptional charts for this time of the year and when the beast #2 was coming i said lets have one last hurrah! well the 12z and 18z gfs has re-loads from the east,northeast and north on them right out to FL and has been very consistant on this over the last few days lets have a look at some data the 8-14 day cpc from NOAA has been consistant lately on the build of heights to our west,northwest now onto the De-built dewpoints,i look at this to see if there is a trend in the ens to drop the dewpoints below -5,this morning there was a couple of stragglers dropping to -10,now there is more growing on the latest,the wind direction is a bit all over the place though so i will be keeping a close eye on this over the coming days.

GFS 18z so far taking a different route to the ECM, differed early on at T72,T96, but where's it going now at T126? Uppers: Northerly incoming?

I think we on netweather are more clued-up on what's likely to happen next week, auntie beeb will be playing catch up as usual!!..anyway, latest models, especially the Ecm 12z op / mean scream wintry potential for what would be the third magical cold spell this spring so far!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

I've been roasted.

This mornings Gem 00z showed epic cold, this evening's Ecm 12z shows epic cold..there's already been 2 Epic cold spells this spring so far..why not a hat-trick!game on!

ECM showing the cold spreading south as early as day 5 with easterly winds Atlantic low pressure sliding under the wedge of weak heights to the north.Should create some snowy interest from mid-week as the cold air comes up against the mild further south.Perfect angle of attack on this to get some late cold here.

Some very big differences as early as T96 hrs. The ECM has a much weaker shortwave which separates from the main trough . It also holds back the deeper low near Greenland. Its key to get the shortwave sufficiently south before the hangback to that other low starts causing issues . The early timeframe is key to get the cold into the UK before that hangback drama. Still problems with a lack of trough disruption as low pressure becomes slow moving to the sw of the UK.

Morning Models still a little uncertain on how this next cold evolution develops - however there is a common theme of troughing to the NE & weakish heights to the North- Scotland & the NE look best placed if cold & snow is your bag- areas further south & west are a 'maybe' -- GEM the pick of the bunch- S

I'm fine thank you Katie Today will generally be a fine dry day as a transient ridge moves east across the country but things are afoot to the west in the Atlantic. An upper trough is on it's way east around the Azores high pressure and the complex arrangement of surface lows and fronts are doing the same. Thus later in the day cloud, rain and strengthening southerly winds will encroach the west' Temps very near average. Through the night and tomorrow the fronts continue to track east initiating a very wet and windy bight in the west, clearing by morning when it will turn showery whilst the east clouds over with rain. As can be seen on the 06 and 18 charts the low associated with these fronts tracks NE/NNE and deepens at the same time whilst the little wave to the west is absorbed by the rapidly deepening low en route for the Bay of Biscay. This low is not without interest. At the moment it is just a wave forming SE of Newfoundland and from here it smarts tracking around the Azores high pressure but 24 hours later it engages with the jet and deepens rapidly as seen on the charts above. The straight line jet contains an 150kt jet streak with air diverging in the left exit in front of it which cause air to ascend with compensating convergence below.. This on occasion initiates rapid intensification of surface lows and this would appear to to be the case here. It can be seen to be absorbed into the main upper trough. Anyway as this depression rapidly tracks south east bringing some quite inclement weather to the Pyrenees the UK is left in a fairly quiet showery day on saturday as the Azores ridges weakly NE with Scotland still in the westerly flow of the low pressure to the north Temps still around average at 10-12C in England and a tad lower elsewhere. Not much is different on Sunday with the UK in a light westerly giving sunny intervals with showers and temps still around average so all in all not a bad weekend for most. But out west the two energy flows are continuing to put pressure on the Azores ridge as yet another twist to the evolution unfolds but that's for another day.

My favourite chart from the 18z..the day after April fools day!

Not getting into the whole climate change debate thing (wrong place for it) but I would like to add one thing to the above...... The Sun is currently declining towards solar minima, the experts seem to be somewhat perplexed at the way it has been behaving and are predicting a strong likelihood that we may be heading into a deep, prolonged solar minima, the likes of which hasn't been seen since Dickensian times. I'm not suggesting that the planet will cool, nor that a quiet sun will mitigate or even cancel out the climate warming we've experienced, it does however have the potential to impact upon our part of the globe. Past deep minima have resulted in much colder winters here, (also wet summers or conversely very warm, dry summers) after the cold winter of 2010 there was a big study undertaken that showed strong correlation between the cold winter and the declining sun spot numbers, the explanation given was that the declining sun impacted upon UV levels which in turn impacted upon the jet stream and the Hadley cells, promoting a meandering or southerly flow for the jet stream and a higher likelihood of Northern blocking, allowing cold air to flood south in our direction. So, if the sun goes quiet and stays quiet and the gulf stream is slowing too, I suggest we all should look at the insulation in our homes because we're going to need it ;-)

Afternoon all Apologies for the late running of today's update and the 12Z output will be on us shortly so I'll keep it a little briefer than usual. Looking at the medium term for Sunday April 1st and whether the weather will be making fools of us all by that time: ECM 00Z at T+240 has an E'ly covering most of the British isles with an area of LP just to the west of Biscay and the trough extending into the English Channel. The British isles is directly in the battleground between the warm air-mass over France and the much colder air over northern Scotland. I suspect therefore plenty of rain or showers with snow for northern hills. GFs 06Z OP at T+234: A ridge is moving across the British Isles from north to south. Pressure is high to the west and south west and lower to the NE but the previous colder spell has mitigated somewhat. Further into FI heights remains strong to the west and north so while for many it would be dry we're a long way from spring warmth and further retrogression at the end of FI hints at renewed Arctic outbreaks. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Weak heights across the UK with areas of LP to the north and south so a light WNW'ly airflow for Scotland and an E'ly flow for southern England. Further into FI the Control goes more zonal but not terribly warm. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 As with yesterday, no sign of anything warm. The mid-Atlantic ridge is a strongly-signalled feature but its strength and orientation very much up for grabs at this time. The question is whether it builds far enough north to anchor the trough over or just to the east of the British Isles or whether we can retain any milder Atlantic component. In summary, this weekend's brief unsettled spell will be as nothing compared to the descent into colder conditions likely as Easter approaches. I'll leave others to talk about "Beast 3.0" and certainly ECM would only be beast-like for parts of the far north. The strong signal for heights to the west or north west of the British Isles isn't good for those wanting warmth - much more likely is we will continue to source our air from the north or east so it's likely to remain below average for temperatures (and possibly significantly so) and quite likely to be wet at times especially for southern regions though I see snow only as a problem for hills in the south though obviously for lower ground in the north it will be possible on occasion and for the Scottish mountains the snow keeps on coming.

Still only intermittant phone/broadband but speaking with others there are some big problems with BT service in this area. Good day yesterday more stones off ,last of outside straw bales into shed under cover and a batch of cattle off to sale. Ground is fairly dry and tempting to sow but its still warming up and if above comes off then seed is probably better in bag unless you are on very free draining sandy soil. The implications of extended cold in April for agriculture will be immense coming after a very long winter and peviously poor summer with lots of suppliers already complaing about poor cash flows from farmers. Even I can see that this summer may not be great if the jetstream stays on its southerly journey. Wild life will suffer too birds are emptying the feeder every second day and there is absolutely no grass anywhere with our own wintering sheep devouring tonnes of turnips every day. Hopefully its not too snowy to load them on the lorry on the 1st of April back to their home in Skye. Currently bright and 7c

The snow goes on and on . Pub run special ? . There be no Easter egg hunting outside , the eggs would be buried . At least they won't melt ?