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Just a quick question . Why do you seem so pleased when the outputs show mild wet weather ? I can understand people wanting mild/warm dry weather as I can understand people wanting cold and snow (me included) . But being happy with mild and wet for Easter is a bit weird. ?

Excellent - snow showers across the bulk of the UK! A very brief milder blip and then the April Beast strikes again

Maybe but judging by the latest extended METO text forecast it looks like cold all the way until mid April at the very least & then only a slim chance of something slightly 'less cold'. It's interesting that earlier / middle part of the winter it seemed that there was a 'predisposition' to bring cold weather patterns from the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period. Maybe we have entered a phase when there is a similar 'predisposition' to bring very cold shots to us from the N / NE / E Exactly what the drivers are and which ones predominate (SSW etc?) I'll leave to the experts in other threads. Suffice it to say, I'm enjoying this fascinating cold phase - just hope it re-emerges around about mid November for - say - 4/5 months.

It’s clear that Easter barbecue’s are off the agenda this year could see a second wave of cold for Easter mon/Tuesday behind a dropping low which would be a pretty snowy feature over northern hills and could well run a track which brings more of the country into play. Gavin’s Azores ridge next week looks to have been cancelled, along with the rest of March springtime...........

I remember winters where we got uber excited with uppers of -5c .................

The trend is definitely the coldies friend, apart from some milder weather in the next few days there is really no sign of proper spring warmth showing it's face, indeed, generally the models show a gradual return to winter from the N / NE next week with an increasing risk of snow, frosts and ice, especially throughout the long Easter weekend and potentially further into april too..I'm a very happy coldie making the most of it and after all the mild mush we've endured, I make no apology for wanting as much cold as I can get before the sunshine becomes too strong!

This is all a bit crazy but it's what the models are showing so I will keep my cold hat on a little while longer (I normally flip to warm by the middle of March!!!). ECM clusters 1 April - unanimous on a flow from Greenland or even further north (and this is no April Fool)

Looking at the 00z runs, winter to return with a vengeance through the second half of next week with snow looking increasingly likely and potentially further wintry reloads extending beyond easter..for a coldie wanting to squeeze out as much wintry potential as possible at this time of year, it's wonderful to see charts like the Ecm / Gfs 00z show this morning..fingers crossed coldies!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

ECM trends towards that 18z solution @144-168 but not a full swing, however certainly colder with a channel runner- plenty of time for more significant upgrades - as if -8/-10 wasnt enough...

As far as I'm aware, a weak polar vortex located over Siberia is pretty much the ultimate setup for placing deep cold airmasses E/NE of the UK and then allowing ridges from the Atlantic sector to pull some of that SW or W toward and potentially right across the UK. Sadly for those who prefer this to happen in the heart of winter, only the most powerful vortex splitting events are able to bring about such a weak vortex in that area during Dec-Feb, yet due to the seasonal warming-out, it only takes a weak event to do so in late March or early April. Anyway - combined with albedo feedback from the extensive snow cover across NE Europe and W. Russia, it means we're at risk of unusually cold air imports until either the vortex fully winds down and stops drawing deep cold together beneath it, or the cold air warms out under the increasingly strong sun, or tropical forcing such as the MJO can force the ridges from the Atlantic to stay at lower latitudes. The warming of the global climate will be focused away from the N. Europe to NW. Asia regions during this time, hence it's not out of the question for record levels of cold to be challenged in these areas. I am of course just highlighting the potential here; even with the higher than usual risk, there's still quite a good chance of escaping another import of air as anomalously cold as we've received twice this month already. The ensembles do have me concerned for the welfare of our wildlife though!

Cold blocked scenario until end of May!!

Here's a few examples of the wintry potential for the Easter period and beyond from the GEFS 6z..although it's still a fair way off the trend appears to be that we are heading for a cold / very cold unsettled Easter with frosts, ice and snow..there is even potential for something even more severe if everything falls into place!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Absolutely sensational Gfs 6z operational with another Beast in early april with snow for the s / e..astonishing stuff!!❄❄❄❄❄❄..Easter looks very cold

IKON 06z120 makes a swing to potential deep cold with more SE trajectory on atlantic energy V more eastward on the 126 00z

You sound like Theresa May!

Beast 3 - he just can't keep away !

The snow goes on and on . Pub run special ? . There be no Easter egg hunting outside , the eggs would be buried . At least they won't melt ?

I seem to be having a conversation with myself in here, what's wrong with people, don't you sense the Beast#3? GFS 18z certainly does, here's the pub run at T186:

That’s the Mean. I was referring to this London graph where you said the lowest ensembles were -5c....look again ...it drops below -5c ...to around -7c. I know you are determined to wind up the coldies but you can’t post a graph and describe what it shows inaccurately ?

What an outrageous 6z. FI but its gaining support. Easter Sunday snowman anyone?

Yet another cracking run from GFS 06z Nothing 'marginal' there! Never mind Gavin (SS) summer will come eventually.....

A bit late but we had an additional 8cm or so of powdery snow by Monday morning, bringing the depth on one car to 18cm, possibly slightly from blowing off roofs but it was at least 15-16cm on the coldest surfaces. It was surprising how much it reduced in the sunshine on Monday though.. and yesterday it mostly went apart from drifts/shaded remnants. It actually seemed to drift more than the 1st March locally (though it had a bit longer without the freezing rain), I didn't see it being whipped up off the fields at home then like it was on Monday Morning for a while. Here are some pictures I've got round to sorting. The 1st pic is the start of the main snow on a local hill, at which point I decided it was a good idea to go home. Pictures 2-5 are at home on Sunday/Monday, and picture 6 is drifts on the same local hill later on Monday. Also it was nice beach weather at Sidmouth I'd say this event gave more snow than the 1st March on the best surfaces (but showed the difference with warmer ground/road temps at lower levels) Min of -3.4C yesterday and today with the ground nice and cold now lol.

A very interesting set of ensembles, key points: 1) The high to our north is set to become more influential early next week with cold pooling over Scandinavia 2) Support is growing for another cold easterly. The control in addition to the OP shows a cold easterly 3) There is a risk that low pressure could just get stuck meaning the UK doesn't see any cold air 4) However given the ensembles were slow to catch up last time we had an easterly, I get the feeling something is afoot....

Blizzard 1 alert! Blizzard 2 alert! South gets buried... Sleep tight..

My favourite chart from the 18z..the day after April fools day!

The people... they all gone.

The issue going forward is whether you get a breakaway shortwave rather than waiting for the whole low pressure and associated shortwave energy to clear. You really need a GFS trend and that chunk of low heights on the tip of Greenland to stay there. Waiting for a total clearance is going to take time and the angle isn’t great.

Stunning 12z gfs brings the cold from the northeast by Wednesday next week! The UKMO appears much slower.

Couple of photos taken by my brother down at st aldhelms head in purbeck. My old stomping ground very rare to get decent snow on the coast. Some of the drifts driving out to the head were as big as his landy. Got stuck twice managed to rock the landy off

I saw it but chose not to respond during it, but what I would say is that nobody here knows what other members here are going through, be it illness of themselves or family members, perhaps lost their job, maybe even just lonely. Some members have chosen to share their problems/illnesses which is great if others can support them, I for one would be very sad to have the great community we have here reduced to only weather related comments, i think all of us have been cheered up by the joking aound we do sometimes, i know that sometimes when i feel very lonely and miss southernman and feel that being ill is unfair as well, i can always rely on a laugh in this thread.And yep I'm sure I would have got myself banned as well.

Thanks to all the above!! What got my goat ( Sorry Lassie, yes I've got one too!!), is the member concerned has been on this forum, for a far shorter period of time, than some of us on here. They obviously don't understand the concept, of a community based thread!! Their comments were overly patronising and condescending!! And I really shouldn't get riled about it, as some of you know, I have plenty more important things to worry about!! I have a post to get through on the Sports Zone, anyway. Sorry mods, had to be said. So members of this thread, you talk about, what you want to and ignore, this individual!! Regards, Tom.

Last night the Op was on the cold side of the mean towards the end of the month and into April now the control has joined in The mean does look marginally higher around Easter take April 1st last night it was -5 this morning it is around -3 00z 18z

Morning @TomSE12 glad to see you're fighting fit today A touch of frost around early but also some cloud which again put pay to sunrise, still some nice reflections on the beach at Greatstone though.

Morning all. Crikey!! Thought I was in a scene from Ray Bradbury's, "Fahrenheit 451" ( See WEATHER related), on here, yesterday morning!! Those members. that have non-related weather books indoors, be careful the "Thought Police", don't turn up, confiscate them and burn them all. ( You can't miss them, they'll be dressed in black and white stripped uniform.) I've been "baited" twice in just over a week, by this individual!! Yes, I do know Cheltenham, is in Gloucestershire and not the S.E, Sherlock!! And how I can be accused of "enticing" members to gamble, when mentioning a Cheltenham "Tipping Competition", is beyond me!! If JennyJane reads this, I'm sure she'll confirm that no money changed hands, it was just a bit of "virtual" fun!! My next Fantasy tipping competition will be at the U.S.Masters in, Augusta, Georgia. I know, not S.E.England but in the S.E. of the U.S.A, (Does that count) My next project will be the Grand National meeting, near Liverpool, in the N.W. of England, Sherlock. But don't worry, it won't appear on here. I'll be a good member and keep it on the Sports Zone forum!! Sorry, rant over!! Did any of you see, one of these little fella's, on the news this morning? (Sorry,only slightly weather related ) Colette wants one but already has a polar bear, Uncle Svarlbad, in the cupboard!! ) Very cute. In WEATHER related news, some overnight runs still hinting at a possible, "White Good Friday". Hope you all have an enjoyable day but keep it WEATHER related, people!! Regards, Tom.

ECM at T216, looks like it supports the idea of a cold blast for Easter, for many: SS just beat me to it! Think it is going to be another model roller coaster. I'm certainly on board!

You could always Stay Another Day, E17?

Afternoon all Though milder again today, plenty of attention turning toward Easter and the possibility of another blast of cold air from points east so will we looking at a White Easter, a Wet Easter or a Warm Easter or some combination thereof ? Looking ahead to Easter Saturday, March 31st, and starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240: After a short milder spell this week, the descent to cooler and then colder unsettled conditions is pretty steady and by T+240 there's a slack NE'ly airflow between LP over northern France and heights to the NW of Scotland. Uninspiring at best with -8 uppers covering much of the British Isles so cold rain for many but wintry conditions to higher ground likely. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: More of an Easterly on this chart as the LP sinks south over southern England and into France with pressure building to both NW and NE. This actually keeps milder air over southern areas while cold air is already into the north. Rain or showers for many with the heaviest rain for southern and south western parts and plenty of haar for the east coasts of England and Scotland. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Another cool or cold chart which GFS has produced consistently for some runs. LP over northern France and heights to the NW keep a NE'ly flow over the British Isles with -12 uppers approaching the east coast so we can safely assume cold and likely to be wet for southern and eastern p[arts though perhaps drier weather moving into the far north-west of Scotland by this time. Further into FI and while there's a brief attempt at milder conditions, the Greenland HP maintains a strong ridge SE and that sends Atlantic features into Europe and means northerly winds and colder air are never far away. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Spot the difference though this run makes more of heights over Scandinavia. This evolves further into FI into a major block but, as is often the case with GFS, it's all very transient and the block breaks down but not without leaving residual heights over the British Isles. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Plenty of cold air over Scandinavia flooding south and south west over the British Isles in a slack N'ly at this time. Further into FI heights build over Scandinavia before migrating SW over the British Isles and ending up close to the OP. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The Mean puts the LP more or less on top of the British Isles but represents a split between two clusters - one has LP to the east and south, the other has LP to the north and west and I suppose it's all about timing and whether the trough has disrupted to the south and south east by this point. In summary, winter rules today on the models. Little or no sign of spring warmth if I'm being honest and plenty of N or NE'ly flows bringing cold air from Scandinavia and the Arctic over the British Isles. The timing of the process is still open to question and GEM offers a slower evolution but the strength of the path and the general agreement looks solid for a transition around the end of the month to something much colder and unsettled. Far too early to be talking about specific snow for specific areas but the likelihood of snow for higher ground looks very high at this time. Lower ground may yet see cold rain rather than any snow but if the likes of -8 uppers are about snow for all looks likely albeit transient in nature. Getting snow to stick at low ground for a period of time in early April takes some doing - snow for high ground in April much less unusual and still likely to linger even with the passage of the year.

I hate to hear that people are being cruel to each other there is enough cruelty in this world without more being added. I love this forum and it’s full of different characters. The weather today started beautiful not many clouds and quite warm, its started to cloud over a bit now booooooo. As for the snow at Easter not sure how I feel, I do love snow but my bones are cold now and I have to say I do fancy some warmth. I do love being in my garden watching the kids play in the pool and feeling the sun on me. P.S will this be another easterly if it come off???

Beast mk3 - Easter Sunday ! followed by on 4th Apr Long way off but fascinating to see - what a remarkable end to winter this is proving to be

Glad I missed whatever happened, as I may have gotten myself banned. I've always liked Tom, and saw nothing wrong with his game, during Cheltenham, was just fun.

Good morning k where is your analysis this morning. Do I have to check the models and work things out for myself? Come on lad little S can manage without you for 10 minutes!

Absolutely. There's always people out to stop other people having a nice chat, ok its supposed to be weather related but there's only so much weather you can talk about.

Mild westerlies ???? ????. ECM days 7,8,9 and 10 below . Cant see mild westerlies there ? ? So the GFS has support from the ECM for a coldish spell . How cold ? Will have to wait and see .

Still fighting to the death

EPS mean backing the op - another step in the right direction.

all the relatives seem to be visiting the UK from Russia, let's hope this one doesn't get expelled after just two dayslittle bit of politics in the SE thread i'll get my goat, sunny btw

P10 offers to break the deadlock one thing not achieved widespread snow in SE and south. I find the more marginal set ups more thrilling very tricky to forecast but reward can be high. I actually see a snow event such as this as very plausible.

@Hawesy Er, so I'd be packing the waterproofs and thermals if I were you! I may have overdone it a wee bit on the auld autumnal snawdance this year...

Happy Equinox, kilters! Another cracking day. Wall to wall sunshine and another braw crescent moon in the west tonight. Wee trip to Norn Irn today, with snaps from the plane attached. Glorious landscapes. Meanwhile, back at the wee hoose, it struggled up to 7.4C this arvo after an overnight low of -2.3C. Not a single day has been above average so far this month. Possible window for it to do so in the next few days and then back into the freezer - or at least the fridge - later next week. Cross-model agreement appears to be firming up for another properly cauld snap/spell over Easter itself. Still beyond the reliable of course and potentially will be of limited interest to our southern cousins given the time of year, but the Scottish ski centres look to be on for a total bonanza over the Easter holidays.