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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/03/18 in all areas

  1. 24 points
    Well I came to Scotland this week hoping for snow and it hasn't let me down! What a week in Strathyre lol... Over a foot here now... I am so happy! Thank you for letting me join in with you all this week, I love this place. Here's a few pics for you to enjoy
  2. 24 points
  3. 21 points
    Some photos from the last couple of days. Near Bewl Water in East Sussex.
  4. 21 points
  5. 21 points
    A snow drift given scale by my 5ft2 wife and Clyde too: These would have been across the road but the farmer and the haulage company guys have dug the road out multiple times now.
  6. 20 points
    The next person to use an App forecast and go into one in here will be banned ! How many times can you say the same thing, apps are useless , automated forecasts are crap. The weather doesn’t behave according to an app. Will people please stop checking apps every 10 minutes and just wait and see what happens . Moan over ! NS newly assigned App moderator !
  7. 19 points
    Bang on Catch - given the strength of the warming and the sheer beauty of the split dynamics it has pretty much been a textbook transfer of the split from stratosphere to troposphere. Here first off to frame this is the seminal Baldwin and Dunkerton Paper on NAM dynamics - NAO/AO From this study you can see the impacts of the SSW elongated over time as the warming down wells and impacts on the troposphere( where our weather happens). Then, to this years episode - this tweet from Amy Butler tells the story that means we had the instant tropospheric response that the perfect split of the Polar Vortex can deliver... immediate ( well 7-12 days) of an instant down welling where the easterly anomalies impact the troposphere. In this case reversing circulation and the Siberian daughter vortex immediately evident at 10hPa echoed in troposhperic forecasts. We were at a point around 16th Feb when this could have gone tits up, but some cool wave breaking in the Atlantic severed the chances of the Siberian vortice joining forces again with the Canadian vortex, this serendipity meant the modelling continued to create a Grand Canyon, no Atlantic incursion could get thru, a brick wall if you like - picture it running from Penzance to Svalbard. This then allowed that earlier programmed Siberian vortex to shuffle round and usher in the easterly regime. Dr Butler's plot below shows the zonal wind and the Geopotential height anomaly impacting all the way down through the stratosphere to impact us locally. Without this further wave breaking and also the subsequent cleaning out of the Canadian Vortex we would not have had a) the Scandi High and then the retrograde action to Greenland blocking. It really has been a thing of beauty. What we saw at 10hPa back on say 08th Feb has in a text book manner down welled through the stratosphere after the SSW and manifested itself in this remarkable easterly. When the wave break to the canadian vortex getting annihalted happened i knew wwe were game on, ahead of that, on 04 Jan the MJO being in Phase 2-3 was a clue to the SSW itself taking place. The SSW then got further confirmation via the MJO entering phases 7/8 mid month breaking the Nina regime. And that's the science from 02 Jan MJO thru, MJO recycle, through SSW , thru vortex split thru wave breaking > Easterly and historic event... Helluva amount of jigsaw pieces to get to eventually a red warning and a cold pool of -42 C at 500hPa which I saw was on statistical analysis a 1/31000 yr event. Special times ! Edit - Appreciate this is a bit technical vs the F$%kloads of snow pics so if you are interested in how we got here then ping me a message and I can either point u to the threads about this or hopefully answer any questions. Waited for some years for an SSW and this one has delivered spectacularly - excuse my excitement - it's been a five year lag and it's an opportunity to investigate a lot of research written around the subject with of course the much improved modelling resources. Baby Steps science... @chionomaniac Ed , to save my typing again can you add to this summary- maybe confirm the precursor you saw and how it beat every agency hands down by 3 weeks
  8. 19 points
  9. 19 points
    Watching the radar, eyes stuck like glue South Westerly gale, you blew and blew The blob it got bigger, it grew and grew Said the weather gods, with love, from me to you
  10. 19 points
  11. 19 points
    Morning all Obviously, focus on the immediate both in terms of snowfall and the complex LP moving WNW and its interaction with the cold air over the British Isles. That's for others - I'll look further ahead to where we might be by Sunday March 11th or Mother's Day or Mothering Sunday or Jackpot Day for a pub with a carvery. Starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A shallow LP is over the north east of the British Isles and winds are light here but further south and west winds are from a NW'ly direction. The LP is part of a complex trough elongated north-south across Europe with centres to the north west of Norway and over Romania. HP to the Azores is trying to ridge north (as yesterday) to residual heights over Greenland. Uppers below zero everywhere so temperatures still struggling and below average. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Very different or is it simply more progressive? A developing HP over Biscay with a ridge to the north is crossing the British Isles so light winds for most but a residual NNW'ly over eastern areas. Pressure remains high over Scandinavia with a ridge westwards from an intense HP and the jet is lifted north. Uppers remain below -4 for most of the British Isles so temperatures remain below average with frost likely at night. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Different again and even more progressive ? Perhaps but it's a hint of spring for the British Isles with a southerly flow as a HP moves east and intensifies with the cell now centred over the Low Countries and ridging north. LP is in mid-Atlantic but going nowhere slowly. Further into FI and as expected the HP moves into Scandinavia and intensifies ridging back west allowing pressure to drop over Europe as an E'ly sets up over the south of the British Isles. While lacking the potency of the current spell, -8 uppers in mid March would certainly deliver snow for many and especially so at altitude. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A very different and flatter evolution. Plenty of colder air over Scandinavia and a weak ridge coming SE from heights over Greenland. The Azores HP is ridging east into Iberia but not really moving north. It's a messy chart and with uppers between -4 and -8 across the British isles still very much on the cold side for the time of year. Further into FI and the jet stays well to the south with shallow LP areas crossing southern areas periodically bringing rain. Looking at the uppers, there are periodic incursions of milder air into the south but the north remains in cold or very cold uppers so any precipitation could well be topping up the snow cover. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: A clear distinction between the colder air-mass over Scandinavia and something milder coming off the Atlantic as the cold trough pulls away far enough east to allow the Azores HP to ridge in. Further into FI and "normal service" is resumed with a broadly SW flow with heights to the south and SE and LP to the north and NW. The 06 GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of options but I can only see the odd Member that screams "spring". Most keep winter very much in charge with air flows from the north or east. It's also trough dominated so rain or snow looks likely and with very low 850s especially in the north, I'd argue more snow for many and especially so to altitude. IN summary, the transition from winter to spring looks sluggish at best on today's medium term output. The south seems set to see milder air on occasions as LP pass over or close by and uppers come back nearer zero (which would only denote average temperatures for the time of year). Further north, the air stays cold and temperatures remain below or indeed well below what you would expect. Plenty of rain and snow on offer with the onus on the former in the south and on lower ground and on the latter in the north and to elevation. One evolution I am interested in is seeing a lobe of the Azores HP transfer east and then NE into Scandinavia. This ties in to suggestions I've picked up from GP and others of a further phase of blocking into mid month and beyond. The 00Z OP took that and ran with it and it's been hinted at elsewhere while others keep the trough and the colder air over Scandinavia and as that fades east, the Atlantic comes in. The plethora of options across the models this morning illustrates the uncertainties out there and the hugely unusual environment we are enjoying or enduring currently.
  12. 18 points
    wow once in a lifetime for a garden Just observed snow rolls' going across in the wind -
  13. 18 points
    This will get lost in the brilliant mayhem but my lowest ever maximum in 15 years of recording temperatures has happened today!! Minus 2.4c !
  14. 18 points
  15. 18 points
    I’m from Liverpool but have been based in Spain since the start of the year. I used to spend a lot of my holidays in Scotland , I love the place and the people. I’m really enjoying seeing these pictures and amazing snowfall your all getting. Continue with the videos and pictures they’re making me smile after feeling a bit home sick. Your a good bunch on here. Wish I was up there now and not in this boring 20 degree heat. Hope you all enjoy the snow and obviously all stay safe out there!!! Keep this great thread going!!!
  16. 18 points
    Morning All 2 key items of note this morning * All models agree on the Eastern track of the PPN today -still with varying degrees of moisture - however London is certainly now in the game as well as all the original areas * UKMO 00z now follows the ECM in terms of 500MB profiles & extending the cold all the way through the run, whats interesting ( almost incredible ) is the now, solid continuation of the E / SE convective flow for the N / NE part of the UK ( accompanied by low heights ) as well as the continued risk of frontal weather pushing in from the S / SW turning to snow- The GFS will more than likely follow very soon...
  17. 18 points
    If you are still up and able to do so and it is safe to do so you should get out a wee walk just now, it's beautiful. Very rare to have the streets to myself and unlike anything I've ever seen in Motherwell before.
  18. 17 points
    Not a lot to add really. First saw the possibility of a SSW end of December (through classic precursor pattern in trop) - thought it might occur late Jan, but had to wait until 11th Feb - so that forecast proved reasonable. Main thing was how the SSW developed from then. The area of the split was favourable (from Atlantic to Pacific) and by early Feb I could see that the first phase was of the SSW was the destruction of the Siberian vortex. This opened the door for any downwelling to increase the likelihood of height rises to the NE. But also by this time, significantly the second residual strat daughter over Hudson Bay was forecast to take another hit with the second warming (not technically a SSW as you can't have two over a short period). The trop strong daughter vortex extending from Greenland to Canada was curtains from this point onwards and it was only a matter of time. This meant that it could assist in the Scandi block formation through WAA into the Arctic before it too subsided. This was the last piece of the jigsaw falling into place because it allowed the Scandi block to head west and over Greenland assisting the cold Siberian winds to head westwards with it. All this was predicted by the first Sunday in Feb. Hence I remember stating that I was so excited by what the models weren't showing at that point because I suspected that it was only a matter of time until they did - even though the trop models were showing no effective response to the SSW for a while. Not every time will we get such strat activity being very conducive and structured to an expectant trop response, but this was such one of those times, and I have waited many years for this. Happy now that pretty much most of the country has benefitted from the extreme weather that a trop response following a SSW can bring.
  19. 17 points
    Please get some pics- Ive seen some old historic pics of dartmoor when houses have snow up to the roofs Best of luck everyone but stay safe-
  20. 17 points
    As I look out the window snow? - check radar show snow - check more incoming? - check I’m up to date -
  21. 16 points
  22. 16 points
    Interloper from the frozen north here, we've had a foot of snow and drifting and widespread chaos ! . so hope you get yours in the SW - good luck today and stay safe !
  23. 15 points
    This week has highlighted many thing for me. 1) That modelling, even in ths digital age, is still remarkably unreliable for some weather events depsite what the “public’ are told about the increasing accuracy of forecasting. 2) the population as a whole do not have the resilience that they had 5 years ago, let alone 27 years ago. To hear a man virtually crying in tantrum on the SE news that he couldn’t get his train to Tonbridge was laughable. Prevously there would have been a typically British shrug of the shoulders and gone to the pub instead after helping their neightbours out first. In all honesty, if the freeze of 87 or the great storm in 87 happened today, those of us that were there, got on and enjoyed those events, would be laughing at todays “managers” for the handling of such crisis!! Perhaps thats why so many us who grew up then love weather!! Sorry to drag on...and also I am aware that I didn’t politely introduce myself the other day when I joined the forums (i got carreid away in the snowy moment!). Watching, and occasionally commenting, this week has been enjoyable, frustrating (especially being too close to Horley, Horsham, Dorking, Reigate clearly to get proper snow ) but most of all illuminating that the spirit of the 80’s community feeling still exists throughout the SE!! Quite understand if no-one responds!
  24. 15 points
  25. 15 points
    people trapped in snowdrifts here, the police have had to call in batman for help-
  26. 15 points
  27. 15 points
    How are my often forgotten sw coldies doing? Remember folks this snow now isn’t in relation to the main low !
  28. 15 points
    Freezing with a chance of hydrated iron(III) oxides Fe2O3·nH2O and iron(III) oxide-hydroxide (FeO(OH), Fe(OH)3).
  29. 14 points
    Anyone who follows our summer Thunderstorm plume threads should never give up hope with the weather and precip moving up from France. A few years back everyone in the West Country were celebrating a rash of Storms that were in Biscay and 8 hours later the SE got slammed all unforecasted Expect the Unexpected
  30. 14 points
  31. 13 points
  32. 13 points
  33. 13 points
    Some incredible ice formations down Gorpley Clough in Todmorden today!
  34. 13 points
    Couple more from earlier. Wind-scoured Calton Hill 5 minutes up the road from me, and The Mound.
  35. 13 points
    Snow getting heavier now in downgrade central On the plus side Fred Flintstone made it to work this morning
  36. 13 points
    There are some awesome drifts now, the farmer has dug out the road to the main road but it's filling back in. Main road is a 3ft deep 12ft wide snowplough shaped channel through the snow drifts, also filling back in.
  37. 13 points
    Icicles like I've not seen since 2010
  38. 13 points
  39. 13 points
  40. 13 points
  41. 13 points
    Look, this snow now is bonus snow if you have it! Light snow on and off all day across the region, then the main course later So can you please stop the frankly wrong posts of non event, it’s if nothing else pessimistic, but actually dangerous if people look in here see a post and head out!
  42. 13 points
    Just wanted to say thanks again to Knocker for his extremely informative and well written updates. For those very much in the minority such as myself who regularly read these pages simply to acquire accurate information as to the forecast itself, they really are greatly appreciated.
  43. 13 points
    Today the continuing evolution takes on another phase so best to start with a quick appraisal of where we stand this morning. Currently the is a very severe frost with heavy snow showers still persisting, predominately still in the north/north east But as can be seen from the above fax Emma is getting organized and by 1800 is in the Bay of Biscay moving north as are also the associated fronts with the upper and warm fronts having already encroached the south. In fact the 00 Herstmonceux sounding indicates the approaching front quite well at 600mb These are the bare bones, and sets the scene for what is set to be a day of atrocious and dangerous weather in many areas of the UK today, Heavy snow showers will persist in the central belt of Scotland and further south into north east England with blizzard conditions in the strong wind giving further accumulations and feeling bitterly cold. further south snow showers will also figure, particularly in the east but not as concentrated bu also bitterly cold. Then we come to Emma and the fronts and these are already bringing snow to the south coast This area of snow will then track north and west during the day with blizzard conditions in places in the very strong winds and producing large accumulations of snow, possibly 10-20 cm in many areas and double that on the moors.And remaining bitterly cold all day. Overnight the showers will persist in the north with perhaps the snow in the south west easing but with a significant risk of freezing rain and with the strong winds persisting still feeling bitterly cold. During Friday the squally showers will still persist in the north east with further snow and ice in the south west where the winds will ease somewhat but still feeling bitterly cold apart from Cornwall where the milder air has encroached.
  44. 13 points
    After being trolled by almost every streamer and blob going, I now have snow! Thin layer getting going.
  45. 12 points
  46. 12 points
  47. 12 points
  48. 12 points
    That's pleasing to see! Corfe Caste in view with snow.. http://www.swanagerailway.co.uk/corfe-castle My dad loved snow, and the castle is overlooking him.
  49. 12 points
    Just had a look at the latest charts and it looks like Spring won’t start anytime soon. More cold and snowy weather on the way
  50. 12 points
    Behind that wall is one of the two roads I can use to get out.
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