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  1. 112 likes
    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to compare for verification- These were both of the 6 dayers GFS on the left. Note GFS flat with no heights in Greenland, UKMO more amplified with heights - Also a circular vortex North of Scandi. UKMO has energy seperation & a closed low - GFS just sends a 'block' of energy through - Look at todays UKMO 72- Comments: -Circular vortex just North of Scandi -Closed low traversing East towards Iceland - Residual heights over Southern Greenland - Arctic High 1040MB. Conclusion UKMO is a clear resounding winner here- every element that differentiated from the GFS is still apparent in the T72 chart, this is a big thumbs up for the UKMO, proof ( on this occasion ) that the GFS clearly has an eastward bias & why looking at developing heights over the pole ( NB UKMO 144 today ) The UKMO resolves energy better... So, onto the SSW it seems an eternity since the first warming started showing up way back in December - but now we are day +6 since the wind reversal- Much of the discussion has been about the 'slow' response in terms of downwelling in terms of creating a significant AO - This is depicted nicely on the NAM index which I have saved from the other week- The GFS bias initially showed minimal downwelling, however gradually ( like the comparison with the UKMO above ) has slowly come into line with a more 'propergating' feature. I think we have been unlucky with the QTR - sadly the NOAA composites page isnt available, however twice there has been significant mid lattitude blocking developing in the locale forecast as a QTR relating to the strat split- However the blocking has been just to far East for us to really gain any benefit - *but* as far as Europe as a whole is concerned in terms of snow this winter could challenge the record books in terms of sustained depth from mid Jan onwards- My memory ( from the old teletext days ) was that St Anton could reach 600CM on the tops by the end of Winter- By the end of this week it will be North of 400CM Also records going in Greece with snow in Athens & -23c reported North of the region- So whilst the QTR missed us that release of deep cold didnt miss everyone... The next stage of this SSW / Split will be crucial for winter as the norm here would be a gentle recovery from the PV ( not to normal strength ) - however if like me you were hoping for something that lasts longer than a few days - IE 1 MONTH then a secondary warming & further splits would be the upper cut to the PV that would knock it out for the rest of the Winter. However just before commenting on that lets see the progression of the downwelling- The charts at the top are from around NYear- now look at the NAM index from the GFS today ( remember its still not the best model for coupling the Strat > Trop ) Here is the NY 100HPA profile V todays Lots more clustering below 5M/S- some below zero. This is why we are seeing the GEFS respond post 192 - Note the AO Ensembles - Starting to gain momentum towards -4. Moving through day 9 on the ECM strat from yesterday we see that the Uwind is still negative but importantly the allignment of the vortex lobes are significantly different to this week - encouraging blocking- Red is the left lobe allignment Blue is the right lobe allignment Yellow is the blocking potential- Its quite apparent that despite a split the current shape of the lobes means that the U wind off the states doesnt support blocking, but day 9 ( alligned to the trop response ) allows for a different pattern that is complimentary towards the jet being sheared up the western side of Greenland & also residual flow alligned SE in the atlantic - We should also see the vortex 'throwing' Scandi Deep cold SW across Europe - This is the jet flow -( yellow ) & associated areas of deep cold. This is a solid -AO / + PNA / -NAO pattern. This is why the models have suddenly flipped to that sharp NW > SE allignment If you are looking for sustained cold then a SSW split + follow up warmings & continual negative zonal winds are the hallmarks of LONG cold spells, * with the usual caveat that we are the SW point of the cold & could always see some milder air pushing back west * This could be a crippling final quarter of Winter for Europe & the Balkans- Best S
  2. 89 likes
    C'mon guys lets give @Paul and the mods a break with the bickering and personal digs type of posts after all it is a WEATHER forum and this thread is for WEATHER MODEL discussion I can only imagine how hard it is for newbies to try and decipher what is going on among all those types of posts so if anybody has any issues with posts / members perhaps it would be better to use the report post button / ignore member button or try and settle it like adults through PM's and also remember the couple of banter threads that exist Now onto the models I will refer back to my post from 8th Jan some statements / thoughts that I made in the post on 8th Jan "I still believe that any low pressures that do develop will begin to take an ever increasing NW - SE track (with the majority perhaps struggling to get much past the UK) resulting in some northerlies / North westerlies bringing the first hints at something cooler / colder to the UK " "My key period for this would be 17th Jan - 21st Jan " starting on this point, I am fairly happy with this still as we move towards those dates as it looks like around the 17th will be the first (of what I think could be quite a few within the next few weeks) at a sliding low attempt dont take the position / strength of the low too seriously as this is still changing from run to run but the NW > SE movement is there and a run showing possible north westerly / northerly / north easterly air by around the 21st onward for a few days onto my next statement / thought from 8th Jan "So what could happen after that?" "Well IMO it looks like being the last week of Jan from around 24th Jan - 31st Jan that the possibility of some fun and games with blocking and colder charts will reach its maximum potential so far this winter." Again I remain pretty confident with this, why? IMO there is still a signal for the last week of Jan for blocking to start to develop / take hold there are some more ensembles showing this but I think this demonstrates my point clearly enough AO still set to nosedive first hints that the NAO might head the same way And with the MJO looking like possibly heading back toward / through phase 6 / 7 by then that could also help aid blocking (again I am only going off my limited knowledge on the MJO and also might need to factor in some lag time) (some of the other MJO forecasts look a bit more uncertain / slower to go toward those phases ATM) Also still worth factoring in effects from the strat warming event(s) that have took place during late December / Early Jan. some more thoughts / statements that I made on 8th Jan "A word of warning / potential spoiler would be a west based - NAO which remains a possibility http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html Key Points keep an eye on these beginning to nosedive once the blocking gets nearer https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml be wary of the west based -NAO" All of the above are still true / possible IMO but with regards to the west based - NAO perhaps the chances of this wont be know until nearer the last week of Jan and where the models are seeing the potential blocking setting up / developing keep an eye on the ensembles for more and more BOOM type charts appearing in the run up to the last week of Jan I think the first area to focus on ATM would be the potential for slider lows and the possible snowy conditions that they may bring but I still believe the amount of BOOM charts will be on the rise the nearer we get to the last week of Jan. A few extra points I would like to make 1. I wouldn't worry too much about differences in each GEFS suite on the graphs (rises in 850 hPa temps) as slight changes in positions of possible slider lows and later on blocking highs can shift those 850's heavily in one direction or the other and I think we are seeing the usual ebb / flow of the models trying to grasp exactly where each low / high is likely to set up (possibly whilst trying to factor in ongoing effects from start event(s) and MJO etc) 2. How quickly have we seen in the past that things can change and head down a colder / much colder route a la Nov / Dec 2010 & Feb / March 2018 etc (yes there have also been occasions where charts such as "that ECM" where the cold looked like it was on route to the UK and suddenly diverted but I much prefer to look at things with a glass half full rather than immediately thinking that we have no hope / chance of the cold / snow reaching our shores / back gardens) using the 2 years mentioned above as examples and again I am not saying that anything of that severity is heading our way I am just highlighting how much can change within the space of a few weeks (using today's date 14th Jan and 2 weeks from now would have us in the last week of Jan , 28th Jan) taking the 25th November as the end date as that was when the colder air was spreading right across the UK then 2 weeks before was the 11th November 11th November 2010 > 2 weeks later 25th November 2010 11th November 2010 25th November 2010 an example of how quickly things can change / blocking can develop February 2018 - again I will use the 26th February as the end point as this was when the colder air was spreading across the UK so 2 weeks before was the 12th February 2018 > 2 weeks later 26th February 2018 12th February 2018 yes there was some snow around for some but I am highlighting how quickly more blocked conditions can develop 26th February 2018 Keep calm everyone and try and enjoy how the rest of January and beyond plays out, I still think we are in for some fascinating model watching. And I just want to remind people I am certainly no weather expert, I am just having a go at trying to predict where we are heading and seeing how close or far away I am (and if I am miles off the mark I will own up and try and examine the charts to see what happened and how we ended up with scenario A or scenario B etc) ensembles GEM 0z ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 0z
  3. 68 likes
    Leaked express headline for tomorrow. #sorrynotsorry
  4. 62 likes
    The problem is, we have many spending hours on this forum, explaining why things may and may not happen. The pros, the cons with a certain setup. The background signals, from Pacific forcings to Solar to the Enso state.Going to great lengths to point out the mechanisms, the caveats, the opportunities. I understand why some feel, why do I bother? 95% are here to do exactly what the forum title says, 'HUNT FOR COLD'. Whether that is looking for a glimmer of hope in a flat zonal profile with poor background signals or in more interesting times, aka right now, it is the whole point of being here on this forum surely? Clearly this forum would be redundant if we all lived in Antartica, but we don't, we live in an area that is usually beyond the reach of any easterly train from the east and with a continuous warm belt of water being pumped up from the Gulf of Mexico to our west. The odds are stacked against us right from the off. The dice are heavily loaded and they are not in our favour. And that is the thing, the crux, the whole point is the chase itself. I won't go as far as to say the cold actually landing is secondary, but before it does, the chase, the hunt, the hope, the despair, the rollercoaster, that is why we torture ourselves on here every winter. I am a die hard lifelong Spurs fan, so that probably makes me a masochist! But the fact remains that for the 95%, just seeing those cold charts appear gives us the buzz we all crave at the time. That may make me look like a total fruit loop in 'real life' but I know full well most of you know exactly where I am coming from!! It is a shame then that we will always get one or two miserable posters who take a few op charts as gospel and on complete face value. Bad enough but to then, through no skill but their own negativity, extend that op chart out to several weeks / months beyond is what really gets people's backs up on here.
  5. 61 likes
    Reading this thread tonight has been a real rollercoaster....have to wonder why those who believe the weather is nothing but chaos with no discernible pattern bother to spend time on a forum where the main thrust is to try and make sense of complex signals and decipher a path forward - but there you go. Takes all sorts I guess.... ...and on the subject of signal deciphering all still looking pretty good, isn't it? I have a slightly warm and fuzzy feeling at the sight of this EPS chart for the 18th Good to know that GSDM theory has a basis that produces the goods. Signal for isolation of the trough underneath a growing band of high lat blocking is growing, and on schedule. To reinforce the fundamental reasons for this - time to post the MT chart that David has already put out there tonight...just for double emphasis It's a really very impressive spike at 30N - and to summarise David's detailed argument into a brief sentence - it very much increases the chances of our strat warming becoming a major one. This sharp increase in momentum will do all kinds of nasty to the vortex - but it also creates a signal for increased atlantic blocking as eddies downstream of the spiked pacific jet form. NWP has been slow to pick up on this - but that EPS chart suggests we have increased clarity now. From here? EPS at 10 days suggests again that the expected pathway may be accurate. The trough will sink south, and with it will come increasingly cold air and wintriness to high ground. This is the start of our winter proper (at least in my eyes) but don't expect widespread snow at low levels quite yet. However - this period will signal the start of the real cooldown. And from there? Time to return to GSDM forcing because strat reinforcement of the pattern will be a little way off yet. Tendency of AAM will begin its next downward cycle soon. This will signal in effect a reduced momentum signature at 30N and opportunity for enhanced momentum further north. However the difference this time is that our next MJO cycle has kicked off, with moderate wave activity emanating once again from the pacific. This will aid in preventing the pattern from becoming too flat, and I would suggest we will see a reinvigoration of the atlantic as we head into Xmas week (despite the higher than average pressure anomalies out west on that EPS chart) but with the trajectory to the south rather than through the heart of the UK (as is happening this week) as heights to our NW serve to deflect the jet on a NW/SE axis. Shamelessly cherry picking a GFS extended image from the 18z rolling out now this chart for Xmas eve would be about what I would expect though perhaps with a greater maintenance of heights over Scandy Systems tracking beneath the block heading towards mainland Europe. Polar maritime airmass mixing with a trough that is beginning to pull in air from the NE. In essence becoming progressively colder on average. So - when does all this give us snowfall at low levels in the south? Don't know yet - don't want to guess. Depends on how quickly cold air can be absorbed from the NE and just how entrenched the block becomes. But chances certainly exist prior to New Year if the flow is right. If not it wont be long after NY before we see 850s in the right kind of zone with a flow that will be evermore easterly on average. And all this being forecast on 13th December rather than 13th February. Warm and fuzzy all over again....
  6. 56 likes
    Ho hum dee dum. Interview done and back to the phone to see the most awesome GFS output of the season. Being blunt - pity it's GFS...but maybe something in the data has changed and we'll see ECM latch onto the same later. I hope brethren in the SW have woken up, because we'd have people drowning in the drifts again....... Usually a run like that would be written off...and in all probability it is overly extreme BUT worth pointing out at this stage that the evolution is not out of kilter with the forcings that are being applied to the north Atlantic circulation. Recent EC strat charts have shown a signal for a block to the W/NW and a jet driven further south, and so a split flow like that is entirely within the envelope of the possible, as impacts of the SSW increase. I'm sorry I can't access all my charts etc on my phone, but once home I'm going to have a really good look at the evolution of the pattern and see what may be what. Meanwhile don't forget that Tuesday is approaching and can still deliver for many. Just needs a westerly tweak as a product of underestimation of high pressure strength....something we have seen several times before. Jan 18 today. Can anyone remember the gloom and frustration of 10-14 days ago? Neither can I. Shows things can move very quickly in weather terms at times, and gloom should always be tempered with optimism when the signals are good.
  7. 56 likes
    What's interesting at the moment is the consistency of the ECM op forecast for Tues/Weds. To be honest it's slightly surprisingly consistent - and the fact that both timing and angle of the slider/incoming trough have remained in the same 12 hour time bracket for the last 3 days makes me wonder whether finally we have a handle on the rate of downwell and strat imprint onto the trop pattern. The diving, sliding low remains on a trajectory that is mostly west of England and steep enough for an undercut of cold air to turn the moisture to snow for many. Confidence in this scenario is now about as high as it can be at 168 hours, and before too long we can begin to look at what may follow. So - why such confidence? Leaving aside the MetO reports/video (which if interpreted say a lot....) and GP's tongue in cheek comment about the comparative EPS / GEFS suites there are a number of reasons to be approaching the kind of confidence in product that was possible for the Beast. Ensembles first - EPS ensembles have been rock solid now for days, and the depth of the trough anomaly over NW France is the strongest low pressure anomaly in the NH for next week. Note too the strength of the high - and the expectation therefore that this trough is going to drop hard and fast down and through the UK. Snow chances increasing by that fact alone. Berlin strat slices are also revealing - at 50hpa we have a very slow westerly average now, and a main vortex lobe to our east that has shunted way over the Siberia at 240h However a residual strat trough lies across Asia and Europe....and heights to the NW are forecast to build as energy transfer across the north atlantic simply dries up. 150hpa image shows the approximate end result, also at 10 days There is less of a straight easterly component to the forcing at this point than we had back in Feb, so no scandy hieghts yet in all probability....but as the arctic high strengthens in response to the downwelling of negative anomalies from the last couple of weeks it looks likely to me that easerlies by month's end and into Feb...and maybe more scandy heights in time. And tropospheric forcings? Calculated GLAAM tendency currently is stalled - but awaiting an anticipated uptick which will produce more of a shove for high lat blocking in the 10-14 day period probably, just at the same time as the strat impacts are peaking MJO has been advertised by others to be re enteritng 6 - 7 - 8 before too long. All of this is just fuel to the stratospheric fire. So - if we are to see a fail where will it come from? Not from a rampant stratospheric vortex. Not from a flat Nina signal in the pacific. Strong trough activity off Canada as very cold air hits warmer seas? It will certainly create some sparks via a steep temperature gradient - but is there enough westerly momentum at present to send this through the blocking signal and flatten everything out (as GFS, with its less good strat model keeps playing around with)? Cant see it. Downwell timing has done for that option. Might even help by putting a bit of sparkle into what is left of the jet as it splits/dives south and feeds the trough over time. Solar uptick as per Dec 2012 when everything went t*ts up? Spaceweather currently reads "Spotless Days: Current Stretch: 8 days" - so not a spot in over a week. It's about as good as it can be. And to finish - a look again at the forecasted 850hpa anomaly out east. This has strengthened considerably - now forecast to sit at -8 to -10 from normal in parts - so once we get more of an easterly feed come month's end it is potentially going to turn extremely cold. Time to look in detail at that scenario later. For now - Tues/Weds is going to be interesting and the more cold air we can get in situ from Thurs/Mon the better things will be. 850 temps for Mon as the trough prepares to dive/slide look pretty good to me as a starter of the spell. It isn't going to be diving into warm air that's for sure. Marginal event - but someone somewhere will cash in. And with luck we all get some of the action soon after.....
  8. 53 likes
    So I mentioned earlier on about very high angular momentum levels, which would normally be associated with a strongish El Nino. GWO in high amplitude phase 6 orbit, expected to move towards phase 7 as the MJO component moves through the West Indian Ocean this week. There is a persistent +ve momentum signal across the tropics and sub-tropics which is holding up this unusually high angular momentum signal. Not much scope for a drastic drop in inertia although frictional torques are as expected strongly negative. When the MJO signal swings through the East Indian and Maritime Continent, angular momentum tendency will rise, driving a phase 5 projection in the GWO around 10th December. Composite: This doesn't fully capture the blocking signal over the Eastern Arctic, so some manual adjustment on this required, but the key messages - Alaskan trough, +ve height anomalies to the NE. GEFS for that time alongside the composite: Again, don't get hung upon on exact placement, the broad gist is that at that range, reasonable confidence that the GEFS mean is about right. The strong presumption from there would be for a phase 5-6-7-6 type evolution (herein the beauty of a conceptual model): There is some manual adjustment necessary to these to inflate +ve height anomalies to the NE and reduce +ve height anomalies to the west of Greenland, but some westward pull of the man trough over the North Pacific is the key thing here. That allows any blocking to our NE to manifest itself, and would consolidate a monthly expectation for +ve height anomalies across Scandinavia. Either way, a challenge to any view of returning zonality at any point during December.
  9. 50 likes
    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before! Anyway The ECMWF-GFS this morning Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe. The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK. So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out. The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic? With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that. So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right. Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  10. 49 likes
    Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.
  11. 46 likes
    If we take the ECM at +168 two days ago And compare it with the ECM +120 from tonight You can clearly see that as we’ve got closer to reality, the model has; 1) Underestimated heights around Iceland area 2) Has started to disrupt the trough to our west more, it is more negatively tilted and a little more elongated. 3) heights in Europe lower than previously modelled If that trend continues in the next two days and the same for the subsequent frames after this, perhaps Day 10 will look a lot different come T+0 than it does now. This is the same for GFS too, not just ECM. Uncertain outlook but certainly upgrades in the mid term from the models. UKMO pretty solid. Going to wait a couple of days at least yet.
  12. 45 likes
    Evening All- Today is probably the first day that many will start to take notice of the ECM ( & of course the UKMO which dovetails nicely in together at 144 ) What we have here is a clear case of a model backing away from the initial proposed continuation of the zonal flow to something potentially very amplified. This transition is clearly demonstrated in the modality change of the AO taken from the 12z ECM operational. It has to be said & earmarked at this very early stage that no-one can be certain of any outcome whether that be some deep seated easterly or a flattening of the pattern with no cold. The ECM ( & GEM ) are picking up a transition signal & at day 9/10 may well continue to move fully through that transition to a scenario of what want ( a la 2013 ) or indeed stop short of Nirvana. Whilst he was ridiculed on here for all the right reasons certainly the Ian brown phrase of if you cant see the train then its not coming- Its great to see positive developments over the last 24 hours at 8/9/10 whilst the interim continues to show periodic snow events at localised levels over the UK... An exciting few days to look forward to - All aboard the chase as it starts inline with the crimbo run in......
  13. 44 likes
    The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you used. The CET predictions of 16, 18 and 17 compare with 16.1, 19.1 and 16.6 for an average error of 0.53 C deg, and it has to be kept in mind that August was running close to 17 until around the 23rd with a very cool finish. The overall prediction was closer, with an average error of only 0.27 C (17.0 vs actual of 17.27). It was a dry summer in many parts of southern Britain and southeast Ireland. The magnitude of this drought was probably underplayed in the forecast. As for North America, it certainly did turn into a scorcher of a summer in the west with widespread fires in western Canada in particular. We were dealing with noxious smoke on an epic scale for much of August (although I was away on holiday in clearer skies down south) and the first week of September before the activity finally subsided. The tropical season has not been keeping pace with the forecast although it could still work out fairly close, and Michael alone is worth several ordinary hurricanes I suppose. ... well, I won't make a big deal about this forecast because basically I think almost everyone expected this sort of summer after the spring blocking, so it is now on to the winter of 2018-19 for the next instalment ... Long-Range Outlook for Winter 2018-19 As always, my forecast is based on a blend of traditional concepts and exclusive research into "index values" on the assumption that at least some variability in the climate can be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field (a complex response to relatively small changes in solar wind output and effects on the earth's linked atmosphere and magnetosphere). It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather. This is also favoured by assumptions made about lunar modulation of the pattern, which is how I have come to see the lunar influence, not as a driver so much as a shaper of larger signals from the other players at work. Another consideration is that we are well into a prolonged solar downturn and so there's nothing in the larger solar-weather paradigm to contradict the notion of this being a colder than average winter. We are in a similar position to the period 1819 to 1823 which had numerous cold winters but it's not a guarantee by itself to be in this sort of regime. I've seen some discussion saying that perhaps this won't be the widely expected "big one" and perhaps we'll need to wait another winter or two, but I have no way of choosing which one is the big one from the coarse assumptions that one is forced to make using only a solar-weather paradigm. The past summer season in the central Canadian arctic was exceptionally cold. Resolute for example had no month warmer than the 1.9 average in July, and that is the lowest such statistic on record in recent times (the record began in 1948). This has been followed up by a large-scale southward movement of a cold anomaly over central Canada that has people commenting that winter already began in the prairies in early September, with snow often on the ground. This anomaly is almost bound to be followed up by a persistent trough around 90 to 100 W longitude. That in turn would favour west Atlantic blocking and a downstream trough between 10 and 30 W. Although that's a little west of the "sweet spot" for a cold winter in Britain and Ireland, I feel that it may be a high amplitude pattern that will induce Scandinavian blocking highs, and cold outflow from those despite fairly high 500-mb heights in western Europe at times. And the pattern could oscillate east-west enough to place the trough over Britain and Ireland at times. So I am predicting a notably cold winter but with high variability possible leading to alternating spells of wintry cold and stormy fast flow situations. Another factor that may prove significant is that energy levels will be highly concentrated near the full and new moons this winter, perhaps more so than has been the case in most recent winters. I expect this to translate into alternating periods of very unsettled, stormy weather around those lunar dates, and relatively long settled intervals between them. The settled intervals are likely to be the times when blocking will deliver the colder air masses from an easterly or northeasterly source. But there may be some tendency for the disturbed intervals to remain cold and turn more northerly. This could add up to considerably more snowfall in the heart of winter than we've seen for quite a few seasons, in contrast to last winter's concentration of snowfall near the very end of the winter season (27 Feb to 2 March was very snowy in some regions). I am aware that this represents a high risk forecast, especially given the tendency of recent winters to resist opportunities to establish potent blocking. So it won't absolutely surprise me if the result is some kind of weaker compromise where some cold and some snowfall develop but longer intervals remain relatively mild. I don't foresee a really mild winter being likely given these background conditions, and I do have concerns that the volatility may produce some exceptionally stormy intervals. This pattern may persist well into late winter and March may not see a lot of change from it, except that by then the energy level considerations will be more evenly distributed into four peaks rather than two per lunation. That separation during February may lead to a peak in snowfall since the peaks will be somewhat less supported and that could be reflected in a more persistent blocking pattern. As to the dates of the stormy episodes, those appear most likely to fall around 19-22 December, 3-6 January, and 16-20 January, and there could be heavy rainfalls in the south during some of those intervals as colder regimes are pushed back to the north at least temporarily, but as time goes on the chances for snowstorms likely increases with each of these windows, then towards the end of January it may be more of a sea-effect snowfall opportunity with the storm track pushed much further south into Iberia and the Mediterranean. During the anticyclonic intervals that are likely to peak between those stormy intervals, we could see some unusually low temperatures especially if snow cover has been established towards the transition from stormy to settled weather. In the run up to the winter, I would expect quite frequent mild and unsettled patterns with the colder synoptics taking their time to appear, possibly in muted form around mid to late November so that perhaps Scotland will get the first round of this predicted wintry regime. In North America, I am expecting a winter dominated by intense cold over central regions, often extending out to both coasts, and a generally depressed jet stream but with weak El Nino tendencies likely to lead to frequent and heavy snowfall inland from the west coast over the Rockies about as far south as northern New Mexico. Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province. I feel like this may be a very rough sketch of a winter that may contain some really unusual synoptics and bring conditions that are rarely seen at some times, and those are difficult to anticipate so would just caution that various extremes may be tested at times. I don't think it will be a dull or boring weather pattern for most of the winter, in any case. For verification, I expect the average temperatures to run as much as 1.5 to 2 degrees below recent normals and for this winter to be one of the colder ones in the past thirty or even fifty, and colder even than the longer-term averages which run almost a degree below modern 30-year averages. I somehow doubt that it could be an all-time cold contender to match the summer because that seems to be very difficult to achieve with the ice margins being as far north as they have set up in the North Atlantic in modern times. But as we saw in December 2010, anything is still possible and there could be some intervals of record breaking cold.
  14. 42 likes
    Another year we could hope to emulate is 1855. The first ten days of January were mild with a flabby high over Europe, and CET values near 8 C to 7th and above 5 C to about the 12th. The second half of the month turned much colder, the end point was 2.4 C, and February was third coldest at --1.7 C with some bitterly cold easterlies showing up mid-month. There was a ten day interval that rivals any other for sustained near-record cold. Looking at the wetterzentrale archive maps it would appear that the flabby Euro high gradually weakened in place, became an extension of higher pressure near the Ukraine, and then that ridge gradually disappeared when higher pressure still developed in Siberia and extended gradually towards the Baltic. There were no sudden or dramatic changes but eventually what we might consider perfect snow-producing synoptics appeared by early to mid February. Another similarity was that the cold appeared at roughly the same time in eastern North America after a mild start to January there as well, with some record lows in the first half of February. This was a low solar year between the 1848 and 1860 sunspot peaks although not in a long-term quiet spell. Not sure if we can say whether the Pacific was in the El Nino state. Also it was just two winters after a cold late February and early March in 1853 so while that timing is different it shows that the progression from mild winter (1852) to late cold to mid-winter cold was operational. The winter of 1853-54 was fairly average after a very cold spell in mid-December. I've mentioned before that 1895 and 1917 also had these mild starts to January followed by gradual but sustained colder patterns. 1956 was not so organized but some rather mild days at first and then again before the major cold spell in early February as late as 28-29 Jan the mean was above 7.5 C. And if I asked you to guess the mean daily CET on 15-16 Jan 1947? 9.1 and 10.0 ... the subzero spell started on the 24th of January. Sometimes mild fades out, other times it has to be removed forcefully from the premises by one last gasp of the Atlantic. Given the stratospheric pattern and the evident weakness of the Pacific at present (can't even deliver El Nino warming to my house 300 miles from the ocean) I place the odds at 4:1 in favour of a sustained cold spell this winter, most likely timing 15 Jan to 25 Feb. The 1855 analogue looks closest to a perfect fit but hey, with all these major cold years showing similar signs, you have to be optimistic.
  15. 41 likes
    SSW Down welling will over ride the MJO signal the resurgence of the upper level westerly regime will flush down the 'burrowing easterlies' referred to in Scaife Meto vids Simply put this SSW is new - its a monster displacement - so strong - its split the vortex - no long range model saw this. The physics meant it went strong into canada, then strong into siberia - it literally has been sheared QBO is irrelevant now - this is important as upper strat advertises differing regime from lower the split means the trop is influential - and the trop players arrive from the tropics - the nino base state and the mjo transition Where we are .. the dilution of the IO development for the MJO today after the coupling of the lower TSV over the pacific means the MJO can move again - its sessions stalled in COD - we can see more modes ahead... It's going to cycle with AAM into phase 5 .. EC week 5 regresses these.. and we have the winter lock
  16. 41 likes
    Or... just don’t bother coming on here at all if every single one of your fleeting visits to the forum is to moan?
  17. 40 likes
  18. 39 likes
    Alice was told that there wasn't much Jam left in the Jam Jar, and when she wanted her Jam today was disappointed to find out this was all that was left.. Thankfully Alice was patient and found this hiding down the back of the ECM.
  19. 39 likes
    The mighty ICON slayed by the UKMO.. @The Eagle has landed
  20. 39 likes
    Also a cut off Greenland High at 216- Rare as hen Twins with teeth !
  21. 39 likes
    Can we open an IMBY 1 please.. The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!.. C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications.... Gets my goat something bad!!!!
  22. 39 likes
    I posted this table over in banter and perhaps a lot of more serious onlookers don't go in there, so as it's not really banter I am taking the liberty of posting it here also. Basically it's a summary of all major cold spells in the daily records of the CET from 1772 on (the first one caught being 1776, and there must have been some stonkers before 1772 but we have no way of knowing the daily details of them, 1740, 1684 and 1709 for example must have produced long cold spells. The bottom line is that one fifth of all winters have produced a cold spell of at least ten days (where the mean daily temperature stayed below 0.0). A few others produced ones that failed that test but were very significant (eight or nine very cold days, or just being a bit too late into March and getting the inevitable daytime boost). Also what this table reveals is that one cluster of cold spells started on dates in late December and early January, with another cluster preferring February. There was a bit of a half-time phenomenon in late January. However, I did note that some of the major February cold spells had a good start in that period of late January and just failed to attach by one or two days getting briefly above zero. I'm sure you would experience the 1947 cold spell as starting 24th January for example. But in the table it shows up later. So here's the table, I have reduced it to quite a small size to make the seasonal profile easier to see visually, but if you want to examine the details then go to a higher magnification. The table is arranged in order of duration of these cold spells and when several are tied, the mean temperature they achieved is used to sort them. Days _ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ______________________________ Coldest ____ Average ______[] __DECEMBER__ [] __JANUARY__ [] _FEBRUARY_ [] __MARCH______ 32 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 ....................................... -- 6.7 ...... -- 3.2 26 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ..............................................-- 7.5 ...... -- 3.0 22 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 5 - 26 Feb 1947..................-- 6.7 .... -- 2.5 **** 20 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 27 Jan 1881 .................................................. -- 8.1 ...... -- 4.6 20 ... ... ..(+12d see below) .. 7 - 26 Jan 1963 .................................................. --8.4 ...... -- 3.6 *** 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ................. -- 7.5 .... -- 3.7 18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 ................................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 3.0 18 ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Dec 1890 ........................................................................ -- 6.8 ...... -- 2.1 17 ... (very cold 31 Dec - 7 Jan).10-26 Jan 1795 ............................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 4.0 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ............................................... -- 6.9 ...... -- 3.6 15... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ...(+11d later) ......................... .. -- 7.1 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ....................................... ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 3.3 15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ................................ . -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1 14 ... ... ... ... ...(+10d earlier) . 8 - 21 Jan 1838 ............................................. ... -- 11.9 ...... -- 5.1 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 .......................... -- 8.3 ...... -- 4.8** 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3-16 Jan 1820 ................................................... ....... -- 8.5 ...... -- 3.6 14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 .......................... .... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.0 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ........................... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.5 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 ........................................................ ........ -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1^ 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-18 Feb 1986 .......................... ... -- 4.6 ...... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956..................... -- 3.2 .... -- 1.6 13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 ............................................. ... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.5 12 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-17 Jan 1987 ................................................ ..... -- 7.7 ...... -- 2.6 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 .(plus 20d ^^).......................... -- 3.6 ...... -- 2.2 *** 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ......................................... ..... -- 4.3 ...... -- 2.1 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 ............................. ... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.9 12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 ........................................ ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 1.8 12 ... ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 .......................................................................... ..... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.8 12 ......... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 .......... -- 3.3 ... -- 1.7 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... .17 - 27 Dec 2010 ............................................................. ...... -- 7.0 ...... -- 3.9 11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................................. .... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.9 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................................. ...... -- 7.2 ...... -- 2.8 * 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ........................ ... -- 4.1 ...... -- 2.7 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ..................................................... ........ -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-16 Jan 1850 .............................................. ........ -- 2.8 ...... -- 1.4 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 ............................................ ........ -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853....................... -- 3.2 ...... -- 1.2 11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...(+15d earlier ^^) . 9 - 19 Feb 1940 .......................... --2.5 ....... --1.1 10 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-15 Jan 1982 ..................................................... .... --7.6 ...... -- 4.0 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .......................................... .............-- 6.9 ..... -- 3.7 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 ............................ ........ -- 7.6 ...... -- 3.5 10 ... ... ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................ .............................................................. ............-- 5.5 ...... -- 2.7 ... see below Mar 1845 10 ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ............................................................................. ......... -- 5.3 ...... -- 2.9^^ 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 .................................. ....... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.8 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 14 - 23 Jan 1809 .................................. ........ -- 5.1 ...... -- 2.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 ................................................ ........... -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..(+14d later) ............................. .......... -- 2.7 ...... -- 1.4 10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 .(1-11 Feb^)................. -- 1.8 ... -- 1.1 * __________________________________________________ ^ Most of the period 1-16 Jan 1861 was also subzero, the 31-day period 17 Dec 1860 to 16 Jan 1861 averaged -1.3 C. ^^ This cold spell extended from 7 to 26 Dec, 20 days in which the mean CET was --2.4 C. The interval 20-25 Dec was --3.7 C. * Except for +0.3 on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb. ** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.4 as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C. *** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days 22 Dec to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C. **** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C. <<>> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST <<>> 25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.3 and 5 Dec was +0.4). The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.2 C. The 15-day period from 5 to 19 Jan 1985 averaged --1.7 C. (11th not subzero so it has no ten-day interval) 1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C. 16 to 25 Jan 2013 averaged --0.9 C but failed to make the list because 24 Jan was +0.7 C. 8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C. ___________________________________ honourable mention should be given to 11-20 March 1845, there were two days in that 10-day interval slightly above zero but the average so late in the season was --1.7 C and contains the coldest March day (-6.5 on 13th). Also, in terms of a sustained cold anomaly, 21 March to 1st April 2013 (12 days) had a mean of +1.2 C. 1785 was even colder at the same time of year, 13 days from 22 March to 3 April had an average of +0.8 C. In terms of early winter season sustained cold, the interval 11-16 Nov 1919 averaged --0.3 C. ________________________________ ANALYSIS of starting dates for 10-day or longer cold spells Of all the 51 spells (in 47 winters, roughly 19% of the years surveyed) including the later ones in March, but excluding those that just missed during the winter season, this is the frequency count for starting dates: xx Nov to 10 Dec __ 4 11 to 20 Dec ______ 2 21 to 31 Dec ______ 9 01 to 10 Jan ______13 11 to 20 Jan ______ 6 21 to 31 Jan ______ 3 01 to 10 Feb ______ 8 11 to 20 Feb ______ 3 21 Feb or later ____ 3 For whatever reason, there is a period from 21st January to start of February when these spells are less likely to commence. A second cluster then emerges around first week of February often lasting longer than 10 days. We have now reached the point in the winter when half of these significant cold spells had begun. The three-quarters point is around 8 February. Not that length is the only important point when comparing cold spells, last winter's late bloomer lasted about five days but "did the business" for snowfall and set a daily record on the 1st of March. Not all of the above set daily records, about two-thirds did (and sometimes quite a few, for example 1776 set five in a row). You will find examples of winters with a cold spell listed and some other memorable cold or snow outside that interval, for example, in Dec 1796 a later but shorter cold spell produced the coldest December day. February's coldest day in 1816 was embedded in a seven-day subzero stretch which was about a week after an earlier five day interval at end of January. The spell listed for 1956 is not the most memorable cold of that month, that happened in the first few days of February. But that spell only ran to five days. Will this winter join the list? If so, likely to be 23 January or so before it begins. The 1947 subzero cold spell began on 24th, the interval to 2nd averaged -1.7 but fell one day short of this list (and by 0.1 C on 23rd). Two days of 0.7 separated that from the main cold spell shown in the table and it then stayed very cold to about the 10th of March.
  23. 39 likes
    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Jan. ( perfect ) Standard Propergation time is 10 - 14 days - however the QTR can arrive from onset & throughout propergation time depending on where the split is. So High lattitude blocking to develop 'possibly' from 1st Jan - 10th & high probability 10th onwards- I think the cold will hit the UK from the transitioning AO somewhere day 5-6 as the split looks condusive to a +PNA & Altlantic ridge scenario- s
  24. 38 likes
    I must be the only one then that looks at these chart and walks off satisfied. Anyone hunting wall to wall snow in November needs to read their history. The pressure differential between Greenland and Scandy on those charts is pretty good for vortex disruption when combined with the Aleutian low in the North Pacific. November is nothing but a setup month - no low ground product in terms of snow is realistic. In addition the pattern is effectively blocked, and people need to realise that a block creates a more meridional flow that promotes warm flows from the south as well as cold flows from the north. The fact that the Scandy anomaly helps pull warm air up over the UK is part of life in this part of the world at this time of the year. The pattern is not one of raging zonality, the strat/trop disconnect remains in place at least for now, and vortex stress looks likely. Winter doesn’t start for 3 more weeks, and realistically doesn’t really kick in until mid December which is 5 more weeks. If you need to cheer yourself up in the search for snow try reading up about the Feb 18 reversal that led to that beastly spell. The Atlantic preconditions are not dissimilar and while every patten is unique we are certainly in with a chance of a cold outbreak this season. Just don’t expect it in November and don’t expect it to last all winter. 1963 was unique and a year I don’t think we will see repeated for as long as the world continues to warm.
  25. 38 likes
    On a more serious note.. This is fantastic.. We have 2 models ec/gfs battling for gain on the given synops.. And either..or iether.. Its stunning probabilties.. ÀND WE ARE ON... @EASTERLY COMPONENT... And yes IM MAD
  26. 38 likes
    Looks like the emotional rollercoaster is in full swing for coldies ! After the helpline being over run in the morning I’ve laid off the staff at least until tomorrow ! Some nice nice upgrades this evening . The ECM though takes a little longer to get there with less trough disruption at day 6 . This is the part for coldies that is most nerve wracking . The tasty set ups aren’t stuck at day ten , you can almost smell the snow ! If we can just get over that 6 day hurdle intact then even I might have a mini ramp !
  27. 37 likes
    Would that be this winter, only 8 days old, with another 82 days to go? Which has already delivered a lovely cold start to December with widespread frosts for many, and an Atlantic storm now in the western approaches? Some have been reporting hail and thunder in the south west today as well. Goodness me, hasn't this been a promising start to the season? No reason to lose heart so soon, my friend, just because we're not all buried in snow - yet. Every year I see the best winter weather conditions develop almost overnight from nothing in the 5-7 day period so we should all keep looking because the next great blizzard may only be just around the corner!
  28. 37 likes
    There is no crystal ball im afraid- What we have is the Met office responding to their Glosea model in a considered fashion - see IF tweet to me below Hes clear that the document is lagged in production - What you have on here are people responding to real time data & interpreting this into forecasts - with obviously no repercussion if it goes wrong - The fact that the met office are tentative in their move to cold is very good news.... I think at this point as highlighted by many of us for a long while is the best possible position heading into any winter since 2009/10. S
  29. 36 likes
    Morning Cold-Chasers.. Before we kick off another fraught day in here, please remember that the models do not dictate the weather, and it is pointless picking holes and overanalysing and getting yourself in a tizz over computer generated statistical simulations. It really isn’t! I know everyone is dying for a day off work BUT.. Every single cold event has its wobbles. Unfortunately with the wobbles seem to come unhelpful posts- and for anyone that saw my post last night which is probably 10000 pages back, I talked about one-upmanship. So once again-there are no prizes for being the person who declared that this would be a bust already. If you like the feeling of being right and dwelling jn the misery of others, this isn’t the place for you. The tone of some of the ‘I told you so’ posts creeping in already is really unpleasant and unnecessary. This isn’t what this forum is about and is not in the spirit of things at all. If you wouldn’t say it to someone in the pub for fear of losing some teeth, it’s probably best not typed out and posted. I appreciate that these scenarios cause emotions to run high but it’s not okay to turn on one another. It’s also not very cool to mudtrack into twitter - going off and complaining about this forum and it’s posters on a public platform replying to senior Meteorologists just makes you look like a child. If you have an issue, please report it to the team. Finally any obviously trolling or wind up posts will be removed and you’ll find yourself unable to post for a bit. PLEASE be nice to each other. Otherwise might be best turn your screen off and enjoy some cold air- it’s not like it was in December!
  30. 35 likes
    Just to elaborate on my previous post that evidence is gathering for a true Arctic outbreak. As we know there are two major spoilers in the current set up. The Azores high ridging across the UK and cutting off any Arctic flow and when we get that ridging at more favourable latitudes Atlantic energy flattening the pattern. There are strong indications within the output that the Azores high will be displaced further West and play less of a spoiler role and that the pattern will become conducive for stronger blocking though there may still be more of an Atlantic influence than some would like. However if correct there will be deeper and longer lasting cold air in place so looks like an ideal set up for some heavy snowfall in early Feb or even sooner if we get lucky. If it all implodes again then this message will self delete.
  31. 35 likes
    I might be totally wrong but we must hang on in there and wait hopefully for some great charts to arrive on our screens .if this forecasted SSW does arrive and our luck is with us and the weather turns wintry in January that will be be half the battle .our squirrels here on mendip have been very active today and they have a look of hope ,think they love being all snug and warm and watching us humans suffer in deep snow and sub zero temperatures, iveven seen them laughing ,and last year in our Beast from the east they were heard saying bring it on .Great to read all the posts on here , I might not post so much these days but I am always popping in, here's to a mega cold spell ,snow for all ,from all types of synoptics ,similar to 1947 ,1963 , full frontal ,convective , etc etc .I wish all MY fellow weather mates a very good Christmas and New year and if you are a weather Model ,please bring it on ,cheers gang ,STELLAS ON ME .
  32. 35 likes
    Almost a week on, and against the efforts of the models to progressively remove the signal as described in the caption extract, the signals have been fighting back. It remains sensible to view NWP from outside the inner circle. Cluster and ensemble data also hampered by inconsistency and erratic perceptions. Current steer from the Global Wind Oscillation is a slow low amplitude orbit underway circa Phase 8/0 which acknowledges the degree of re-amplification there has been upstream in the Pacific (as outlined in the most recent post ) through this week and injected just enough energy into the polar jet downstream to edge the heat into the nearby continent. But the models have been blind-sided by the tropical activity in the Pacific that flares up in addition to any low frequency signal - and which they are often slow to respond to. Hence the out and out trough solution suggested in recent days for the weekend ahead of an amplified Atlantic ridge, has been watered down and greater downstream ridge persists instead. This in turn has altered the apparent evolution for that once depicted upstream ridge to move eastwards and try to settle things down into next week. However, this is far from the end of the story. Worth taking a look again at the implementing standing wave pattern in the Pacific and seeing how the July pattern started to adopt to that in terms of position of tropical forcing. Which @Singularityhas already alluded to. The outlook remains focussed around the difficulties NWP is having related to this regime - in the short term, the flare-ups of more micro-scale cyclonic forcing in the Eastern Pacific which adds positive wind momentum upstream and cancels out this weeks attempting amplification (upstream). This activity is superimposed onto the moving on of the cyclical low frequency MJO signal before re-starting its new timeline eastward cycle. The Hovmollers wind anomaly cross section also depicts this positive momentum in the Pacific clearly close to 180W This means that resolving troughs and ridges downstream within an apparent upper westerly flow into the medium term is not straightforward and subject to further amendment within closing timescales. Then into the medium and longer term itself the re-engagement of the low frequency signal itself with the Nino standing wave which is highly likely to repeat the sequence of late July once again. The re-entry point heading east from Maritimes within last third of August. There is little point in posting deterministic modelling of this that far out at this stage - as progress of developments with the usual 5 days, let alone beyond it have not been reliable. This ultimate destination of the low frequency tropical convection signal in later month involves, downstream, the re-implementation of a substantive ridge to the NE, likely overspreading an amplified upper trough that is perhaps more likely to dig southwards and become slow moving to the SW as opposed to the more progressive west>east solution in late July. The ramifications of this are highly interesting indeed for those of us who want summer extension to take us through to conclusion and beyond : More settled, but most especially the further north once heads and always a good chance of mid level convection and thundery potential showing up due to destabilisation c/o of the stalling trough to the SW spiralling up some embedded features in the humid airflow from the south to keep folk entertained with some light shows in the darker mid evenings - and still plenty warm enough for many to keep sitting outside and enjoying themselves In that sense, it could well be the summer officially finishes not too dissimilar to how as it was ushered in during late May. There is credible evidence and reason to support such a scenario, which also is not also unnoticed by the professionals in the extended outlook over and above any weather enthusiasts of this site - so on the basis that none of us are paid to make suggestions or predictions, then what the heck, lets have some fun and see how it unfolds Finally to complete the post and in relation to the continued process that underpins its logic and conclusions: I think, yet again, some further repeated correction needs to be given to a few posts made since the one under update consideration - in respect of the El Nino (standing wave) and its alleged lack of effect on our downstream pattern in summer, or at any time. The emphasis of this continues not to be the base state itself as I see repeatedly still keeps being incorrectly misrepresented regarding these summaries, but the changing relationship the atmosphere is adopting to on-going slow shifts in base state and which do impact on synoptic changes from upstream. One cannot deny that changes in jet stream profile upstream in the Pacific will not impact on the downstream pattern - and in this sense it is not wise to take NWP at face value where there are complicated and sometimes contradictory signals occurring upstream. This principle applies such as it does currently in summer as much as it does in autumn, winter and Spring. This atmosphere/ocean relationship is not linear as this year has proved so emphatically - with the east based La Nina providing a very different winter (also relative also to the stratospheric state prevailing back then) than commonly seen under "traditional" La Nina's where the tropical signal is much less eastward. than it was. Similarly there are a-typical El Nino's where the most common atmospheric responses expected are altered in state. But the point is we can take each on its own merits and then identify how the atmospheric relationship may, or may not be altered from this state and then see how other factors may also augment or detract from them The whole purpose of this kind of GSDM analysis is to widen the parameters and hence open minds to possibilities within NWP, not straight-jacket them into x+y= *one size fits all boxes* based on any given base state supposition
  33. 35 likes
    Mate... Really-- lol you said the same thing about 14 days ago...
  34. 34 likes
    So Ensemble watch getting exciting now as I have introduced the 'deep cold' circle today ( sub -7c ) & that is tracking SSW with each run....
  35. 34 likes
    I cannot believe the total memory loss of the same old people here, thats the same ones posting the same replies as they do every year - defending the GFS when its going to be wrong. When you have UKMO aligned to ECM & ECM mean at 120 they are NEVER trumped by an out of kilter GFS especially the 06z which is like comparing a pedigree with a stray. So for all the neutrals who wonder if its just opinion or is it sound education over a few years lets take yesterday as a prime example of how bad the 06Z GFS is - UKMO 144 yest V 120 Today That is a superb match across day 6 down to Day 5. Metronomic consistency with minimal adjustments all around the Globe. Now look at the runt of the litter the GFS. Same timeline. Yesterday at 144 No Greenland High, No decent arc of Cold coming through Scandi UK in southerlies -- Look how much this model has changed in that short time span... * So if yesterday was awful at 144 with no clue of the pattern then the probability is todays 144>168 is the same bin fodder How anyone who indicates they follow the models can put any credibility on such a pants model (06z) - means to me they are deliberate in their attempts to derail the thread. Back to the original well proven point * If the 06z goes off on a tangent through 144 then scrap it *
  36. 34 likes
    I was cleaning the car about 30 mins ago & felt a tremor in the force - Must be something brewing in the models.. ( I love warm & sunny weather ) but a switch in the next 10 days could mean a last chance meeting with old man Winter...
  37. 34 likes
    What we need to see is exactly what you are seeing here, though by pacific trough I'll translate that as Aleutian low. We need the pattern to retrogress to pull the power out of the Canadian lobe, and that means seeing the return of the Aleutian low as the next pacific wave initiates and tries, once again, to throw the atlantic ridge up and over the top of the jet. MJO phase 7 at this stage of winter ties in with an Aleutian low signal. We all know this is painful watching at the moment - but at some point this westerly momentum bubble is going to burst. Better minds than mine are arguing that the problems we have had in the last week or so have been initiated by destructive increase by easterly trades at the pacific equator, interfering with momentum distribution as expected in a Nino year and allowing westerly momentum to remain higher than expected at high lats. Images of the mid atlantic high constantly trying to ridge north but being forced back by the strength of the flow from Canada match this concept exactly. But this interference is expected to wane over the next week. Taking that perhaps as a given (accepting, of course, that it is simply another element of a global forecast that could yet go "wrong") we can continue to expect the start of February to bring increasingly good prospects for the block/trough combination we are hunting. Destructive interference in expected signals is a topic that deserves a thread all of its own probably - and I'll admit right here and now that there are aspects to it that I find really tough to grasp - but if we can get shot of it in the coming days and find our way back to a constructive pattern that aligns the signals properly and, consequently, allows the slow downwell to impact more effectively then let's wish it speedy and healthy progress! Finally - taking the science out of it for a minute and reducing it all to chaos and "luck" - we've had a US storm get in the way, and now an issue with increased pacific tradaes. 2 bits of bad "luck." Surely we cant have a third - it HAS to be third time lucky?? Whether you want to go down this route - or are prepared to engage in the complex scientific debate - the outlook looks to be positive!!
  38. 34 likes
    Ec46 week 5 is more of the same ...euro trough then pulls back west later week 6 which relaxes the uppers for week 7 basically ...... cold ......and potentially snowy ......
  39. 34 likes
    The fact that UKMO cold starts @144 ( on the 12z ) is already now T132/138- The ECM is probably slower-by about 6 hours. The credible forecast is the cold spell to start from that day ( Weds ) - & as time progresses the cold works its way further south -the slider is the biggest risk of initial snow but also poses a problem in terms of how fast east a temporary flow from the atlantic slides in- So the blended forecast which is credible given its derived from the UKMO/EC blend is exactly above - The GFS whilst a bit flatter has suddenly moved to the euros - which invariably means it will follow them fully in the next 24/48 hours... As it stands then - cold arriving from the now 138, snow potential about 150 onwards..
  40. 34 likes
    Bloomin Nora, Stone the Crows, where do you start with all this!! The output is absolutely top of the class this morning!! First this developing Icelandic High on the GFS. Op run = 1050mb at D9!! Mean = 1035mb at D10, and still 1030mb by D12/D13!! These are huge figures!! Remember a static Icelandic High is pretty much a guarantee of cold air filtering down from the Arctic into Scandi and then NW Europe more generally - the best scenario for cold at this time of year imo. Onto the GFS Parallel. D8: uppers down below -8C. This will be snow in the SE. The cold feed gets lost for a couple of days but is back by D15 And the ECM ... Nearly as good. At D10 - 1035mb op Icelandic High, 1030mb mean Scandi High - wouldn't have been disappointed with such a chart when I woke up this morning. On the clusters ...can't really do much better than this at D8. Clusters 2/3 have an excellent alignment of heights to bring more cold in from the east, and clusters 1/4 have potential for the same with small adjustments. And by D13, it's an 85/15 split in favour of northern heights anomalies, which is a significant amount. A November 2010 re-run is not a ridiculous suggestion based upon this output.
  41. 33 likes
    I bet you could not wait to post them charts.
  42. 33 likes
    Morning all, we were promised the finest champagne by ECMWF and instead they end up giving us Babycham! Although I think we could be drifting away from bitterly cold snowy northeasterly now, don't think the 00z EC det. is necessarily correct with the Atlantic resurgence to the NW after mid-week trough disruption and all the other models will fall in line. I think the models are struggling with the emergence of an arctic high off eastern Greenland next week, probably a trop response to the easterlies downwelling from the lower strat. 00z UKMO has the high dropping down to Scandinavia, EC did last few days, but this morning EC is drifitng the high towards the Barents Sea instead - which doesn't block the Atlantic resurgence from the west like the UKMO solution. UKMO T+144 EC T+144 So, although a big upset from EC this morning, don't expect it to be right, even at this short range, because of that arctic high.
  43. 32 likes
    Wonder where Crewe has gone.. ECM is as good as it gets!
  44. 32 likes
    .. back to views out of hotel windows in Torquay.... Unless and until upstream Pacific flow is resolved, and until strat downwelling takes place, out to day 10 will have a strong mid latitude high component for NW Europe.
  45. 31 likes
    Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).
  46. 31 likes
    The ECM is the best of everything for everyone .... Remember we ( some of us ) said going back over the archives you never get such a deep low dropping south over the UK well this is now the change- Projected GFS ( then ) V ECM Now Also initially the cold uppers & atlantic air was bing pushed east & mixed out but todays 120 where it ejects that shallower system more in a southerly direction keeps the cold air intact- Here we have 12z ECM V 00z ECM 12z had the atlantic pushing through-with the mild sector mixing out the cold 00z today increases the slider snow potential Note the cold catching up in Ireland again- Post that well, it speaks for itself...
  47. 31 likes
    ECM breaks out the champagne again- This time its just 168...
  48. 31 likes
  49. 31 likes
    Nick - you are stressing way too early - the models are moving towards the expected solution in a similar way to the late feb one ... eps have had one rum suite but that apart, they head towards the ec 46. The gefs and gems are now headed the same way ...... the holding period could be a lot worse than a mid lat high close by ...... looking back to feb, the gfs fi should catch on more consistently around Xmas day if it’s a strat downwelling wave which proves to bring in the cold. Expect winter to arrive just beyond 7th jan
  50. 31 likes
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