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Showing content with the highest reputation on 20/02/18 in all areas

  1. 84 points
    I think too many have already become desensitised to what constitutes a 'fantastic chart' and the seasonal ailment of this thread (which is irrationally mood driven anyway by the more average synoptic charts that are customarily on offer) has taken on a latest variant of becoming superimposed and twisted on the absurd semantic that 'merely' only UK Tundra conditions are being shown and not the Canadian variety. Truly, if you cannot exercise self control in front of your lap-top by the smorgasbord of dessicating cold solutions evident on NWP, especially as we are heading right into meteorological Spring, then its maybe best that a different form of self torture is considered to spare those who take a more considered perspective. This has nothing to do with any regional bias (coming from a part of the country that relies on these increasingly rare sort of synoptic to get a snow fix) its to do with the usual fascination I have for sitting back and marvelling at watching a pattern like this unfold in the greater macro scale. If/when it snows at home, I will be less inclined to spend spare time waiting for when it is next going to snow, or when its going to end - but instead getting out, having fresh air, exercise and enjoying it. And then, when the snow and ice is over, it will be a case of seeing how the patterns evolve through Spring and into Summer - looking for the best that can be on offer for this Island, whose micro climate is fickle, elusive and overly too mobile to the sort of sustained blocked patterns that can be the deeply cold derivative as upcoming next week, or depictive of deep Azure blue skies, sunshine and warmth of the summer. Get used to this reality - it will always be thus
  2. 77 points
    I wish you guys could see the precip charts on the EC. Serious disruption Tues and Wed on this run across swathes of the country.
  3. 67 points
    Well it's a wonderful sunny day down here in Exmouth and 12c right now and set to continue (here) for 4-5 days with overnight frosts but gradually cooling off by day. The south-east will be the first to see the cold weather biting and some early snow flurries (perhaps by the weekend?). Very few people will believe us or the MetO etc (and certainly not the Daily Express - crying wolf far too often) that we are heading into deep cold! This benign, sunny and mild weather reminds me of what proceeded many of our severe cold spells and I thought that it would be the perfect time to compare some of these to the current and predicted patterns. Before my time, it was very mild in mid-January going into the 1947 epic cold spell. At age 3 (before I can remember), it was very mild prior to the severe cold of early Feb '56. Then my actual experiences started with the '62/'63 winter. Some early cold and snow in November and early December. Then cold and foggy. Then mild and benign for a week and then from Dec 25th, sudden cold and snow and 11 weeks of winter wonderland. There are other and more recent examples, including February 1991 and March 2013 which some have already alluded to. What many of them have in common is the HP building into the country (either Azores HP ridging north-east, HP developing right over us or HP ridging down from the Arctic or Scandi). They all brought in winds from a southerly quarter with mild and benign conditions. Then the Siberian or Arctic (or in between) HP built and the wind backed into an easterly or north-easterly quarter. It actually all makes sense. Almost all of these spells started slowly and then the doors to the freezer were suddenly flung open. BEFORE AFTER 1947 1956 1962 1991 2013 2018 I believe that we'll be referring back to the 2018 severe cold spell as an analogue for many years to come. I'll be back with one of my Eurasia temperature and snow cover reports towards the end of this week. Everyone enjoy watching this all unfold. It's going to be something highly memorable.
  4. 61 points
    Ah those were the days, 'real' snow depths not your 1-3 cm and traffic chaos like now!
  5. 60 points
    Wow, some of you are like bloody toddlers. Either grow up fast or don't expect to be able to post in here for much longer, it's ridiculous.
  6. 49 points
  7. 48 points
    The anomaly charts continue to support the overall pattern of northern blocking with lower heights south of this. The 8-14 NOAA is as good for cold as I can remember for a good many years. How cold, how snowy then much too far ahead and these charts are not for that purpose. The synoptic models will give some idea but not this far out. T+72 or so for a GENERAL idea, T+12 for detail. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php The ECMWF-GFS version also goes along with the NOAA advice http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  8. 43 points
    This will not be a dry easterly with scattered snow showers as per ukmo 120-144 - there will be non stop snow in the East & SE , NE up to about Newcastle & this will push across England & become more broken / spread - so yes if you live in the west It wont be quite as good to start with. As mentioned now by me / Nick L etc etc this is lake effect snow. 1 day of perfect allignment will bring ~20-40 cms of snow in the best areas - up to 10 on average- The flow looks to be sustained 2-4 day poss longer.... do the maths....
  9. 43 points
    I think some are worrying about small features that pop up in the models, which, physically won’t have much effect on the general well documented/agreed on momentum westwards of the deep cold as @Catacol has already highlighted. A small surface feature cannot alter the upper pattern and the jet, it’s normally the upper pattern and associated jet that dictates the movement of surface features. The movement westwards of the deep cold is being driven partly/mostly by the remnants of the daughter vortex that formed from the split of the SPV by the SSW beginning of last week, which dropped into NE Europe / NW Russia and will now move west over Europe and is coupled with deep cold pool moving west in the troposphere. This weakening strat vortex can be seen on the 2PVU loop below (in blue) on GFS tropopause (where trop meets strat) pressure charts, dropping south over NE Europe then moving west. This is in turn causing the jet stream to push SW across Europe – helping pull the cold air west and southwest. A small surface low or ‘shortwave’ as some like to call it won’t stop this momentum. <--- click to animate
  10. 39 points
    You know it's a severe cold spell when the 510 dam 1000-500mb thickness line has moved over the UK! Rare for it to happen. As the deep cold advection eventually waters down later next week on the 06z GFS op, the run offers a reload of very deep cold air from Barents Sea area maybe in the offing first weekend of March, which collides with Atlantic lows trundling across France - BOOM Oh dear, think I'm losing all kind of forecaster sensibility and sound thinking looking at these GFS charts in FI!
  11. 39 points
    goodness gracious, pages and pages of ridicuously OTT ramps....this is really on a knife edge folks, just a small variation will change the weather pattern totally....I mean for example if you take the GFS00z run and then rotate your computer screen clockwise 90 degrees you'll quickly notice the isobar lines change direction and you get the mother of all southerly plumes with temps in the mid 80's......I'll fetch me coat (thermally insulated I might add as I'm going to need it for the next two weeks) notice to mildies, doing this is the only way you're going to see southerlies for the next few weeks.....lol (I do believe I have ramped again, that's twice in the last 12 hours........I need a lie down)
  12. 38 points
    Minor feature develops.. Are a sure cause for a major inflow.. As exactions of flow are aligned.. Its like farting in the bath.. Smells at first...but then the bubbles clear.. Horrid way 2 relay it... but simple-..and honest!!!!!
  13. 36 points
    Well I might start acting all out of character and posting positive things You won't be able to make sly digs at my expense... I'll start as I mean to go on... Good output this morning.
  14. 35 points
    That's fine - go do your research: I've done mine. For length this will likely outlast 87, be a bit less cold but quite possibly more snowy. It looks as cold in uppers as 47 though not as long.... but snow potential matches. Definitely more impactive than 91 or 96, and in my book an improvement on 10 (though we will only be able to argue that after the event.) Nothing can touch the longevity of the 63 winter - but taking snap shots from that incredible season what we have approaching is of similar intensity, even though spring is on the doorstep and will cut it short. I'll hold to the claims. I think the next 2 weeks could go down in the history books as one of those special events. A ramp? Yes - but take a look at the output and the signals. All irrelevant now of course cos it hasn't happened yet - but after the event we can review. :-)
  15. 35 points
    I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April....
  16. 34 points
    As Steve has correctly said in an earlier post - we will need until Thursday before we can be 100% certain that the cold, as modelled, is going to hit. But I think we are 90% there, and my fears overly a potential southerly track are all but gone. There's barely a sniff of a southerly trajectory in any of the output, and as the models resolve the collapse of the Canadian vortex the HP is being moved into the most favourable of all positions. I don't want to say - "unbelievable" - yet again... but somehow it does need to be said. BBC at 0750 did something I don't think I have ever seen before, and that was put up a graphic for next Tuesday illustrating daytime max temps at below freezing. 7 days away? Every model in line, MetO in line and all we are now left to talk about is snow depth. Concerns over power, infrastructure, the old/homeless and general safety become real in this circumstance now. I hope the Met don't wait too long to put warnings out (its amazing how many people here at work have looked at me strangely when I said it was going to be extremely cold and possibly snow next week) and that everyone enjoys what comes AND tries to help those who will need it. Sleeping rough under -15 850s and heavy snow is not a combination to celebrate. But on the positive side - wow. Back end of next week for the SW to see real fun as per this chart or this one or this one (so many to choose from!!) but starting Sunday I will sit back and enjoy watching images of the east coast come under fire, and prepare for the best spell of weather since 1991/96 and quite possibly a spell that will outdo both of those, outdo 1987 for longevity and match 47/63 for severity. Big claims - but the model runs support such interpretation.
  17. 31 points
    Courtesy of Ventrice over at WSI - ECM temp anomalies for next week. Gulp. If my reading of shades of pink is correct, that's an anomaly of -5 for the south of England. And via Masiello and Alicia Bentley - a stark representation of channel low style synoptics running underneath a very vigorous and cold 850 easterly airstream. Dry? I doubt it.
  18. 31 points
  19. 30 points
    So with trepidation I opened the models in following sequence. UKMO - check.....lovely bitter easterly GFS - check.....lovely bitter cold easterly with lots of snow to come and goes on and on with easterly reload at the end.....Chio? ECM - hmmm - not as clean.....quick check the uppers....oh boy, disturbed with widespread -12 uppers......snow snow snow GEM - safety in numbers....awesome Phew.... BFTP
  20. 28 points
    The mean is further North than the OP run was, Can we stop throwing the toys around, now? Even if the OP came off exactly as modelled it'd still be pretty damn notable.
  21. 26 points
    What exactly is the problem here... I’m struggling little bit of inter run variation and guess what we still end up in the freezer. Deary me.. unless you’re from Iceland, nobody can complain at the 12z output.
  22. 25 points
    There really is no pleasing some people, is there? 12z GFS continues to be incredible, UKMO is a solid 10/10 for me, can't wait to see the GFS We're about to see the snowiest period for possibly years.
  23. 23 points
    I think people need to calm down and not react to a run which is still within a borad envelope regarding how the cold to our east will interact as it tracks towards the UK. To emphasise this, the GEFS are further north with the high compared to the 06z suite with a much larger cold pool pushing in. That is a stunning mean, again there will be variation run to run.
  24. 23 points
    I think I'm with @frosty ground on this one. A surface feature like this is unlikely to overrun a pattern that is being driven by much larger forces. I was a bit concerned a few days ago by thoughts that the warming might actually drive the whole storm track too far south - but such suggestions have moderated. Frictional input from layers above is holding the cold to a trajectory that works for us - ECM strat 150hpa here for 192h and nothing here to suggest that the track is going to drag down towards Spain. We'll wait and see if that ECM cluster for a mid atlantic high returns - but frankly it feels somewhat counter intuitive to the current setup.
  25. 23 points
    Morning all, what wonderful winter charts we have. Pick for me is the two from UKMO. The model rock solid route to prolonged cold and now in the reliable time span. The human input in the latest fax chart , this one for Friday shows the increasing North Scandinavian heights continue to gather a pace as the week progresses with its extended strong ridge pushing well into the Eastern Atlantic. Now we also see the depth of coldness likely with the plotted 528 and 510 dam lines indicated. For snow watches its that area between Latvia and Denmark that we have to look for trough development in the increasing depth of cold as it advects towards the British Isles. Think late Sunday and into early next week looks good for convective snow showers to move across your part of the world. Beyond that retrogression of the high with frontal attack from the SW ? Who knows...just enjoy and await the Eastern delights in store !! C
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