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Showing most liked content on 20/02/18 in all areas

  1. 52 likes
    All this fuss about downgrades - 'chill' out ! Looking at two runs 24 hrs apart so examine the same time stamp - from last night's 12z to tonight with a helpful Polar Bear diagram included. As you can see the Polar Bear still on course to arrive, just a slightly less ferocious looking bear this evening..
  2. 42 likes
    Well my simplistic UK forecast on the forthcoming brutal cold would be..... Cloudy with the chance of Penguins.
  3. 42 likes
    Another thing to consider is that dry snow puts down more than wet snow for the same liquid equivalent. With wet snow it's typically 10:1, dry snow can be around 30:1.
  4. 39 likes
    You know it's a severe cold spell when the 510 dam 1000-500mb thickness line has moved over the UK! Rare for it to happen. As the deep cold advection eventually waters down later next week on the 06z GFS op, the run offers a reload of very deep cold air from Barents Sea area maybe in the offing first weekend of March, which collides with Atlantic lows trundling across France - BOOM Oh dear, think I'm losing all kind of forecaster sensibility and sound thinking looking at these GFS charts in FI!
  5. 31 likes
  6. 29 likes
    That;s what you call a direct hit! Bewildering.
  7. 23 likes
    Morning all, what wonderful winter charts we have. Pick for me is the two from UKMO. The model rock solid route to prolonged cold and now in the reliable time span. The human input in the latest fax chart , this one for Friday shows the increasing North Scandinavian heights continue to gather a pace as the week progresses with its extended strong ridge pushing well into the Eastern Atlantic. Now we also see the depth of coldness likely with the plotted 528 and 510 dam lines indicated. For snow watches its that area between Latvia and Denmark that we have to look for trough development in the increasing depth of cold as it advects towards the British Isles. Think late Sunday and into early next week looks good for convective snow showers to move across your part of the world. Beyond that retrogression of the high with frontal attack from the SW ? Who knows...just enjoy and await the Eastern delights in store !! C
  8. 19 likes
  9. 17 likes
    I've seen folks on TWO saying that this looks like a dry easterly
  10. 15 likes
    On the tarmac @Gatwick- ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days- If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic s
  11. 15 likes
    So, just to clarify, people are annoyed that we may have to wait 12/24 hours for -14/16 850s
  12. 14 likes
    Pinch yourselves. This stunning looking chart is now in just 4 days time...
  13. 13 likes
    For our Cornish friends keep an eye on the exact wind flow because anything with a touch of se in the easterly flow can deliver down there. Also areas a bit further east right on the coast if theres enough se in the flow. The set up could also be very exciting for eastern coastal parts of Ireland with the Irish Sea providing some lake effect snow. It goes without saying that east facing coasts of the UK should do well It’s also possible nearer the time we’ll see some troughs showing up in the flow bringing more continuous snow. These getting well inland on the strengthening easterly flow. The stronger the flow the better both in terms of convection off the North Sea and getting that snow well inland . At this point the exact flow can’t be nailed down and this does make a difference. I’d ignore any precip charts as they’re woeful with this type of set up.
  14. 13 likes
    With all the excitement earlier, not sure if anyone mentioned the EC weeklies updated tonight, but they indicate it staying cold Well into March, here’s weeks 2, 3 and 4 week 2 Week 3 week 4
  15. 11 likes
  16. 10 likes
    It must be pretty depressing having snow in East Anglia when you think about it. No hills for sledging.
  17. 10 likes
    GFS shiting the main pool of cold air to our friends in mainland Europe by the end of next week still cold for the UK but a slight recovery in temps
  18. 9 likes
    And possibly the se but we're not allowed to see that bit(much to the north members delight)
  19. 9 likes
    The Ecm 12z is stunning, it turns into an absolute snow fest with snow just about everywhere as pressure gradually falls during the run and deep siberian sourced cold becomes entrenched..wherever you are in the uk, the Ecm 12z would deliver!..next week is going to be Epic i think and not dry with sunny spells as BBC say!!!
  20. 9 likes
    Essentially today marks the beginning of the transition into a pattern change and a different regime, albeit not overnight. Today frontal systems are still affecting the east so pretty much an west/east split with the east remaining cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle whilst the west will be bright with sunny periods with perhaps the odd shower in the north west. Much the same picture this evening and overnight, the patchy rain in the east may move a little west on the dieing occlusion qQite likely a frost in the north west after a clear night By 1200 tomorrow the high cell is established across the country thus light winds and plenty of sunshine in the north and west but cloud and patchy drizzle may linger in central, southern and eastern England on the remnants of the front and temps in the 7-8C range Away to the west another front marks the interface between the airmass over the UK and the major upper low over southern Greenland and the cut off low to the south west which have linked and at this stage there is still a lot of energy leaving NE North America eastbound. By 1200 Thursday the energy has pushed the northern section of the front east whilst the high cell tilts and migrates north east thus initiating the aforementioned new regime as an easterly component to the wind is introduced in the south but at this stage not adversely affecting the temp noticeable. Over the next 24 hours, by 1200 Friday, the front does actually get quite close to NW Scotland, and further south the wind is picking up and veering a tad. Which brings us to the weekend. The wind continues to freshen in the south and with the colder air gradually encroaching from the east it will feel very cold in the wind chill although it will remain dry apart from maybe some snow flurries it the S/SE
  21. 8 likes
    GFS falls in line with the majority consensus- HP centred at a better (higher) latitude than was the case on the 12z
  22. 8 likes
    Now getting upset over the ECM run I cannot understand. So much snow potential in that precisely because we have avoided the much colder uppers. Why would anyone want -20c uppers if it meant it was dry?
  23. 8 likes
    UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018: Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  24. 8 likes
    ECM op at the top of the pack when the cold is supposed to arrive, explaining why the mean is earlier...
  25. 7 likes
    The Control is truly epic, stays cold throughout and throws in a blizzard for the SE in deep FI (when it would probably already be buried ) Fingers crossed we get something so memorable
  26. 7 likes
    The posts about it being delayed are really becoming irritating. The real cold has always been expected to arrive between late Sunday and Monday. You expect the output to be going back and forth on the exact timing. It is not been put further and further back. Some runs have brought it forward. This run is just another variation on the general theme of deep cold with potential for snow. People need to stop fretting about specific detail. The models will be appalling with detail at this range. It’s the general theme that matters. As for the GFS trying to bring in milder air. I don’t buy it. Everything looks perfect for a prolonged cold spell. Plus, we know the GFS almost always breaks down cold spells too quickly.
  27. 7 likes
  28. 7 likes
    Evening all, Well steady as she goes. The last few days model runs, have produced some of the most wintry looking synoptics, I've witnessed, since I started viewing model runs, on the internet, in 2003/04 and then became a member of this forum, in Jan. 2005!! Just want to post up a few links. First one explaining the dynamics of "Lake effect snow", or in our case, "North Sea/Thames Estuary effect snow ". In the United Kingdom, easterly winds bringing cold continental air across the North Sea can lead to a similar phenomenon. Locally it is also known as "lake-effect snow" despite the snow coming in from the sea rather than a lake.[31] Similarly during a north-westerly wind, snow showers can form coming in from the Liverpool Bay, coming down the Cheshire gap, causing snowfall in the West Midlands—this formation resulted in the white Christmas of 2004 in the area, and most recently the heavy snowfall of 8 December 2017.[32] A similar phenomenon can affect the city of Inverness in the Scottish Highlands, where cold north east winds cause heavy snow to form in the Moray Firth; this was the case with the White Hogmanay of 2009, which caused the street party to be canceled. Northerly and north-westerly winds can cause the effect to occur over the Irish Sea and Bristol Channel feeding snow into south-west England and Eastern Ireland. Western Scotland and the north of Ireland can also see snow showers from a north or north-westerly wind over the Atlantic. Lake effect clouds over Caspian Sea on Jan 07 2008 Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent. The most recent lake-effect snowfall event along the east coast of England was on 30 November 2017, coming four years after the previous event.[33] Hopefully, we will develop a favourable alignment, to the flow and we can sit back and watch those bitterly cold 850 temps flowing over the relatively mild temps, of the Southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary, do their worst. Now a link to current sea temps, around, our coastal waters. https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/southend-on-sea.htm Finally, a link to the Dutch radar site, to view, what's hopefully coming at us, everything crossed, during this spell. https://www.buienradar.nl/ Really hope, I havn't jinxed this now. Regards, Tom.
  29. 7 likes
    Well if we are playing model bingo this morning I think we just have got a full house.
  30. 6 likes
    Best ECM ensembles yet from what I have seen, many have that shortwave diving down from Norway which regardless of where it goes prevents any pressure increases over the UK and keeps the core of the upper high further north. This in turn keeps that cold and unstable flow going for longer. Great runs and I feel more confident again after seeing this.
  31. 6 likes
    The beast from east will the 12z upgrade even more ..
  32. 6 likes
  33. 6 likes
  34. 6 likes
    Did anyone spot the channel low at 192 on the ECM?
  35. 5 likes
    Remarkably similar position to 12z GFS with the 528 dam line coming over eastern England
  36. 5 likes
    ECM mean going from the 26th to 28th with the 850's steady at -13 in London by early March we are barely above -10 in London
  37. 5 likes
    If this doesn't come off I'll be so so bitter and twisted in future winters Cant take another let down.
  38. 5 likes
    Northern Britain finally gets some snow as winds turn northerly, a very wintry finish for the north on the Gfs 12z.
  39. 5 likes
    12z Icon showing the precipitation heading in from the east
  40. 5 likes
  41. 5 likes
    A lot of easterlies messed up by shortwave lows were cases that had us looking to be near the western limits of a less extensive area of deep cold, with much less margin for error than we have on this occasion. Its like being sat on the train tracks instead of at the station, and so close to the train yard that even if it derails it will probably still crash into you. Or something like that anyway! For this reason it is a adjustment southward that I am wary of most - a rebuilding of the train line itself along a new trajectory. That 40% ECM cluster likely contains a fair few of those. There’s always something isn’t there?
  42. 5 likes
    We’re on the cusp of an incredible cold spell - Full time jobs are a pain for watching the models come out but the updates in here have been awesome! EXM/GFS/UKMO & their ensembles remain solid, slight differences over timing but Monday-Wednesday is typically the range. Barring major changes over the next couple of days, we’re going to see some incredible weather.
  43. 5 likes
    The CPC NAO/AO worthy of a BOOM,not one straggler in there full retrograde of height's pushing into Greenland with a re-load from the N/NE possible,what do you call that train from the Atlantic,Oh!!!,zonal,what is that!!! De-built temps,dewpoints and wind direction all prelonging the cold and those easterly trades have gained since yesterday too i am still on the fence though,has anyone got a time machine
  44. 4 likes
  45. 4 likes
    Still an amazing run but we all want perfection now we have this Amazing synoptic on our doorstep
  46. 4 likes
    I know it was me that started a panic over ECM cluster 2 but it isn't quite as bad as is being made out - if you look at the progression from T192 to T216 and then T240, you can clearly see the cold is still moving in from the continent, just not quite that direct hit - probably staying dry in the north and west. Coldies would have bitten your arm off for this cluster at any time since 2013!!
  47. 4 likes
  48. 4 likes
  49. 4 likes
    Looks like the Atlantic might make it in.... By March 8th. Bless it.
  50. 4 likes
    Steve, your good at reading output but rubbish at commuting, you actually need to get on the plane right, trying to find my channel low, this has possibilities.
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