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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/02/18 in all areas

  1. Comes in, has a little look at the 12Z GFS and has a little chuckle to himself.
    54 points
  2. Irrespective of what the ECM goes on to show shortly and irrespective of what my head keeps telling me of how the effects of this SSW could be mitigated, I am not sure I have seen anything programmed quite like this thing. Polar easterly reversals are often enough mitigated at least to some degree by other tropospheric drivers, but I am beginning to come to round to thinking this may not be one of them where that happens so easily and its going to take over a lot of the NH for some time. Its one of those very occasional cases in point where referring to the direction of travel of the GSDM is certainly not the whole story when it comes to tropospheric forcing and the placement of the jet stream, set against such a considerable reversal of zonal wind anomalies coming into the troposphere. So on that basis, putting aside what my head has been telling me, it could be the case that it would start to be more prudent not to underplay the SSW, than place caveats as to what might mitigate it. On that basis maybe its me who should have a bit of a ramp, and not others who should restrain themselves However it plays out in terms of what comes out of the sky in the coming weeks - and despite the fact that the actual phenomena of SSW's is not new, this is quite a significant specimen indeed we are watching unfold
    51 points
  3. Suspect it’s going to be busy in here today, so because I’m up making coco pops pre 8am with the kids, just some gentle reminders before I spend my day moving posts and asking why and being PM’d: •there’s a thread for bbc discussion. Please use it. I’ve said numerous times before that the bbc don’t ‘sign off’ the weather. It’s another opinion, just because they put it on tv, doesn’t mean it’s a done deal •SSW is in v early stages so there will be output variation run to run. As a few have mentioned, it’s the overall signal to be looking for, a theme. Not the best or worst charts each suite. •There’s also a thread for met office commentary • Please try and keep it on topic. Posts that start ‘I know this is off topic, but’ will be sent to the great virtual incinerator in the sky- if you can’t post it in the right place, I won’t be moving it to the right place. It’s just going to disappear. • Sarcasm and digs and general unpleasantness won’t be tolerated. If you don’t like something, report it. If you strongly disagree with something or someone, then don’t make it personal. Debate is healthy and good. Shooting people down with misery or belittling with ramping isn’t. If you have an opposing view, use data and evidence to make your case. Given this discussion by its very nature, it’s underpinned by science and data, not gut feelings, tingly toes, spidey senses, weather stones, seaweed, the daily express or any other voodoo. If you’re into that kind of thing I’m sure I can find you or even make you a wizardry thread. Just not in here. • just again, be nice to each other. It’s the weather, it’s a hobby. Nobody in here is responsible for what it’s doing. Lots of people take time out of their day to post good analysis, please respect that. •snowing in my back yard stuff belongs in the regionals. <Deep breath> aaaaaaaaand GO.
    48 points
  4. Afternoon- The last 3 GFS updates for the warming ( oldest first ) Shows the convergence on -40M/S - This is record breaking - Wayyy stronger than any date in history back to 1979 on Interim ERA data ( -32 Ish being the record ) With such a broken vortex - one would assume that theres no return from there for Feb or for March.....
    44 points
  5. I wouldn't worry. The ECM is taking a different route. It's like taking the M6 Toll or the M6. Both will get you up north eventually except the M6 will meet heavier traffic. Well tonight, Matthew, the ECM is the original M6 Either that or @Tamara 's ramp has jinxed it lol.
    32 points
  6. Indeed so. I've just returned from a Met Office open day tour at Exeter and the topic came up there. The forecaster I spoke to was suggesting a 70% chance of cold / Easterly at the beginning of next week which he said was a very high percentage certainty at that range, whilst emphasising there is still the other 30%. He was also showing the 'London Model' 333m output but cautioned that in terms of improving model resolution the limit was quantity of input data rather than computing power. Still the current 4 day accuracy is the same as the 1 day accuracy from the early 80's.
    30 points
  7. We can’t have our cake and eat it 12 hours ago the mantra was that ecm high res is the best tool to manage this scenario with its better handle on strat/trop interaction. what now? And the idea that the nwp just can’t handle the consequences of this ssw a couple of days before it occurs is also far fetched. A week or so away - yes I can buy that but it’s beginning tomorrow night! The same model that show us what it thinks will be happening next Saturday is the same one that models the ssw within the same dynamic representation on Monday. The trop response is well within the high res part of the gefs and the eps. The ec op ridge had 25% cluster support yesterday and I suspect it might be less this morning. The gefs suite is now showing around 25% support for this fella headed north. the ops are not reliable post day 5/6. We know that. So we shouldn’t be surprised by a lack of consistency. It’s a shame that ecm has jumped ship on the accelerated amplification this morning but it could get back on board later today. one ‘dodgy’ op is always feasible. Two, as we got so close to the reversal would be tough and could well pull down the curtain on a scandi ridge establishing before the 20th. What seems pretty clear from all the extended eps modelling is that we will become blocked to our north and northeast post day 10. the key to getting very wintry surface conditions here will be dependant on the euro profile. This seems rather less certain. Getting heights to drop close enough to advect deep cold this far could prove tricky. we could well go into a cold frosty anticyclonic spell and be relying on a strike from a meandering cold pool headed west or an approach from the Atlantic pushing ne into the cold air to see any widespread snowcover. (Ignoring what may fall prior to all this with the cold Pm flow) looking at Berlin and the weather is cool website, yes there is a qtr but just how strong is it by the time it reaches 500 hpa and what latitude is it affecting ? Not very is the answer and north of 65 seems to be the answer. . Of course it doesn’t have to be so strong - you aren’t expecting to see the systems headed in reverse. We just need to flow to slow down enough for some sustained HLB to take hold. Something to bear in mind is the eps from that 00z run failed to take the AO negative until the 22nd and then it’s fairly muted. That’s about a week behind the gefs and gems. It could be that the entire suite is unreliable. Or it could be that the model is resolving what happens in the strat/trop better than the other two! the ec op strat profile this morning showing the remnants of that Asian vortex chunk becoming a pain in the way it ‘phases’ with the Canadian, moreso lower down. this could well be interfering with any ‘uber accelerated response’ for us and meaning we have to hang on for another few days and hope nothing else ‘pops’ up to interfere further! Going to remain busy in here for a while yet!
    30 points
  8. So - here we go. Vortex split, reversal to occur in the next 24-36 hours. Depth of reversal significant, length of reversal significant, vortex shard placement and progression a bit uncertain - but set to leave the UK in no man's land between the 2... surely providing a rich context to height rises to the north... maybe NE (my best guess) or maybe N to NW (as per some model runs recently..) Either way - height rises. Still looking also for the storm track generally to drop south, though this has not been hugely noticeable in model runs in the last few days. Are the algorithms able to deal with a split vortex on top of an extended and deep reversal with a pacific context of high amplitude MJO and ongoing impact of east asian MT promoting the kind of poleward wave activity as posted so well recently by Masiello on twitter? And warming of the Canadian vortex shard on the horizon also? No. NWP will model all this far worse than usual. Wild swings will occur I think - with some awesome charts interspersed with downright ordinary looking ones. GFS just now churning out good ones - and this image here for medium term illustrates my thinking pretty well. There have been some wise words in the last day or so, urging caution. They are right. Caution in weather forecasting is the name of the game - I suspect I have been guilty of being rather bullish in some recent posts. But at the same time - let's be clear. We havent seen a split and reversal like this in the modern record. Amy Butler has tweeted today that eddy heat flux has just broken the modern record and will be making a mess of vortex shape as I type. Sustained reversing strat winds for around 10 days are not something we have seen before - but are forecast. End result is that we have preconditions for something special. To be honest - if we cant be excited now (coldie excitement that is) then frankly we never can be.
    26 points
  9. The UKMO 168 can be made more use of if GFS and ECM are posted from the same perspective here is GFS-UKMO-ECM; UKMO sitting very much in the middle of the pack with the angle of the flow but the southern extent of the frontal system is much more akin to GFS than ECM so I would say that overall, it's about 75% toward GFS over ECM. As for what the heck ECM is up to, well how about we look at the MJO projection v. that of GFS: Bizarrely, the observed MJO for 9th Feb doesn't quite match up between the two - I've never seen that before - and things only get weirder when you look at the model projections, with both models showing some retrograde motion and a little kick back up but with ECM decaying the signal a lot more before that kick. As the zonal winds decelerate, it's not out of the question to just see a gradually relaxing westerly flow down at the surface, should there be a lack of amplification signal for the Atlantic sector. In that scenario, due to the initial split acting more like a displacement away from Eurasia, the best we can do ahead of the second phase SSW kicking in is a broad ridge building gradually north with dry and increasingly cold weather at the surface. Then as the second phase kicks in (lucky we have that eh?) and the Canadian vortex weakens/falls apart, blocking migrates further N and later W. In the case of GFS, extra amplification from the MJO drives a trough into Europe and puts the warm air advection out west on a more northerly track, both of which give us a shortcut to the 'blocking migrates further N and later W' stage of the above. The SSW impacts to our E and NE, particularly the displacement of a weak vortex lobe that then moves west from Asia to Scandinavia, have been messing with the evolution at times but the general tendency has been persistent with this model today. So that's my take on the why behind the model runs of the past 24 hours. As for which is more likely to be correct, all I will say at this time is that the position of UKMO seems encouraging if you'd prefer the faster outcome.
    22 points
  10. Going to disagree with John H here. Plenty of support that our weather will eventually be coming from the E over the next 14 days even despite this mornings ECM. For starters we have the GEM & GFS Operationals and looking at the UKMO +168 that is heading the same way. More significantly is the GEFS mean at +300 plus has consistently suggested a flow from the E. Evidence of blocking to our N & E continues to be suggested by the models and a flow from the E/NE looks favourite. However the depth of cold is impossible to predict at the moment,.
    21 points
  11. For anyone bummed out with the flipping and flopping in output just now. The SSW isn’t underway until tomorrow so it certainly doesn’t surprise me that the models can’t decide what to put out. I should imagine that runs from maybe the 18Z tomorrow but certainly 00Z/06Z Monday will start giving a clearer picture once the SSW is actually underway. Take the charts today and early tomorrow with a shot of tequila (I recommend with cinnamon and orange over salt and lemon) . Yes, there will be the doom-sayers lauding each less favourable run over us but until that SSW (and remember this is a pretty spectacular looking SSW) is underway, don’t let them rain on your parade. Stay strong snow squad ??
    21 points
  12. I was hoping the ECM maybe could go all the way down to T-0 consistently showing blocking in all the right places. Then I woke up. Literally. Not a blinder this morning from the ECM op, but in all reality a smooth transition from current state to post SSW was never ever on the cards. The models struggle at the best of times, and when you consider how unusual a situation this if for them, and it is, it is hardly any wonder we are getting all sorts of forecasted outcomes. Like it or not, that’s just how it is, nothing will be even close to nailed down for a good few days yet. Expect further disappointing outputs and further winter wonderland outputs to appear, disappear and reappear from model to model, suite to suite, day to day. I just can’t wait to get the wind reversal underway later on Sunday. Give it a day or so and then we can see what the charts look like, as the actual data starts getting fed in.
    21 points
  13. yes mate & ECM 72 looks similar - Just awaiting the snow depth charts to update *** Why are we seeing these charts appear - Yes, The most Easterly stratospheric winds ever measured in 40 years ... *** S
    20 points
  14. GFS mean out to day 15- reverse flow across the whole of Europe out to Greenland - in tune with the progression post record breaking warming-
    20 points
  15. The post above by ba is perhaps the most constructive one I have seen since the anticipated reaction to the 'warming' and how it 'might' affect the UK. I have to confess to being at odds with a lot of the euphoria on here and not really convinced by my ex colleagues at Exeter over this deep cold possibility from a point east of the UK. Staying colder than normal into the next 2 weeks I quite agree with but to me, most of what I can see from this forum and data we can all pick up from various weather centres suggests that the cold is going to come from a westerly not easterly point, more like NW and at times perhaps N. That is in the 14 day time scale from now. What happens beyond is not my sphere. The 500 mb anomaly charts are not as solid as needed for a definite take but all 3 I use have consistently shown height rises across much of the northern part of our hemisphere but with not much, to me, to suggest that any upper or indeed surface ridging is going to come from other than the Iceland/Greenland area, again I stress in the next 14 days. The upper heights from northern Russia all the way across into the far NW of N America mean that the surface lows may well end up being further south than currently. Behind one of these I suspect a burst of polar air is likely. Beyond that then I am uncertain how it may play out. If the expected effect on the Troposphere occurs in our area at such a time then the snowy wonderland so hoped for on here might well happen-I don't know. Bit coldish, even cold at times is the weather for 2 weeks or so. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
    20 points
  16. I think one thing is certain - we are going to learn a lot over the next few weeks. The extent to which a split and SSW can impact on patterns in the trop is gong to get some excellent data to add to that which we already have.. and we must all admit that we don’t have a wealth of such data to go on in terms of major strat event combined with the lagged impacts of a very strong mjo progression. In essence there is some educated guessing going on. I have hardly disguised my sense that the vortex imprint will imprint favourably and that sharp reduction in westerlies at 55/60N will combine with twin shard location, subsequent warming over the US and a pattern set to retrogress (perhaps) will bring cold. But words of experience and wisdom are equally valid, and even in my most optimistic mindset moments as we look at next weeks events I am aware that alternative scenarios are on the table and are evident in some model runs. In the end.. all we can do is wait and see.
    19 points
  17. Dear Winter 2017/18, I am writing to formally complain about the shabby treatment I’ve received at your hands over the last two and a bit months. While you have slowly but steadily (some might say sneakily) charmed the pants off other forum members by dishing out snowfall on a pretty regular and liberal basis (though NE members feel they have been forgotten since December - please sort that out) I’ve received nothing except one pathetic, patchy, wet dusting. And not just me, I’m writing on behalf of other good folk ( @aggy & @ciel) who you have cruelly chosen to ignore while plying the likes of @Northern Strath and @shuggee with 5 and 10cm falls like they were going out of style. Even @CatchMyDrift has benefitted greatly from your generosity. While I understand that you would provide @101_North with the white stuff just to get him off your back what have I done to be treated so poorly? I’ve been positive and talked you up all winter, I’ve even gone out of my way to specify exactly what amount of love you were going to show to the individual members on this thread and yet still I get the shaft. And don’t give me that coastie bull, because you’ve pulled the finger out for @Hairy Celt @mistyqueen & @snowy owl. Snow is like wealth, I believe some attempt should be made to distribute it fairly across the nation. You’re not adhering to this principle so I’m calling you out on it. Hell, even Crail got a few cms last week....after being ignored completely by your colleagues Winters 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15 & 2015/16. Between you and me Winter 2016/17 is held in pretty poor regard in these parts and yet even (s)he provided me with 3 fluffy cms last January. In summary you have 18 days to sort this mess out. I demand to see AT LEAST a cm of snow on the ground here in Broughty Ferry, in Fettercairn and in Irvine or I’ll do nothing but badmouth you to Spring 2018 and your legacy will be tainted forever. Yours sincerely, Hawesy
    19 points
  18. The decent orbit was the GWO 5-6-7 part. It changed the upstream profile and enabled the door to be shut on the Atlantic that has been fed for so long by the low angular momentum combination of increased polar jet c/o Canadian vortex and bumped up sub tropical ridges due to enhanced easterly trade winds. Its proved brief - a jab around the edges as I described it might be about 10 days back. The heading to GWO Phase 8 part has curtailed the Scandinavian ridge and returned greater polar flow with angular momentum falling back once more as the vigorous tropical momentum phase c/o MJO comes to a conclusion as it arrives at final high latitude destination. The fall back in AAM now entails looking at the 'back door' Atlantic ridge route to height rises over the arctic c/o the SSW. We have seen plenty of these scenarios many time before. The height rises across the arctic are not in question. Self evidently as I said yesterday the highly impressive reversal of zonal winds will effect the higher latitudes into the troposphere through a quick response. But as other SSW events have shown, that does not preclude obstacles occurring as a result of legacy of tropospheric default patterns at mid latitudes. An SSW is only effective 'in ones back yard' if there is clean cold air advection that is unhindered by 'left over' vorticity and also any legacy of sub tropical ridging pattern c/o low angular momentum... which, in my humble and less swashbuckling opinion anyway, doesn't make an -AO/ -NAO 'impossible to escape'. The record breaking SSW of Feb 2009 was seen as a 'dead cert' to a cold pattern - and it fulfilled that initial part of the bargain no question at all. But in terms of longevity, which you dismiss with ease as 'irrelevant' on this occasion, it flattered to deceive in terms of its undoubted long life being a quite unremarkable slow release valve - rather than any reloading deep cold nirvana. La Nina forcing on that occasion interfered with the mid latitude pattern which effectively cut off the -AO from sustained re-cycled lock-ins of cold due to the rossby wave train pattern from upstream c/o tropical forcing being scrambled by too much easterly inertia to allow a more typical +AAM signature southern stream to engage the higher latitude blocking and back the pattern substantively south and west. Once again this time, there is no doubting the size of the tropospheric >stratospheric momentum signal coming to fruition with this SSW. In my own un-exuberant way I have been a part of its evolution like very many others - albeit I admit and concede without ramping headline making It could indeed well be that the -ve zonal wind anomalies downwelled to the troposphere are strong enough to override La Nina seasonal inertia. I can see that for myself and could easily enough empty away the dregs of my glass and fill it up much higher instead and re-write this post to reflect the (obvious) upside All good then as you say. But as one who has looked closely and discussed in detail for several weeks ahead of this scenario the mechanisms that require the essential mid latitude dominoes to fall, I will be forgiven, for the time being at least, for taking much less for granted on the basis of preferring the polar field and the tropical cycle to have been, ideally, in better harmony The best forcing has just been and gone - its a pity the polar vortex wasn't sliced open then. Hopefully as you say that is an irrelevance and this post is long forgotten.
    18 points
  19. A quicker way to take a view across the ensemble suite of potential Greenland height rises, couple of corkers in there !!
    17 points
  20. Evening folks, I’ve decided to be ambitious stupid and go with total snowfall amounts through to Midnight on Monday. As mentioned to @edo last week I only predict the total of what accumulates on the ground in the given period, as responsible members of the kilted thread it’s up to you to protect whatever snow you do get from the vagaries of thaw, sublimation, gritting etc. As usual, just for fun! I’m very nervous about tonight in the south of Scotland....fine lines could be the difference between next to nothing and a major snowfall. @aggy 2cm (as The Stone Roses sang, Aggy, This is the One [on Monday, I reckon]) @More Snow 3cm (please come back, mate) @edo 4cm @Stormeh 8cm @Ravelin 2cm (been a tough 2018 so far) @Blitzen 7cm @Norrance 4cm @Ruzzi 18cm @snowidea 6cm @101_North 6cm @CatchMyDrift 12cm (nervous about this!) @Hairy Celt 3cm @scottish skier 12cm @GraemeB 6cm @moffatross 18cm @snowy owl 1cm @mardatha 20cm (gulp) @mistyqueen 3cm @grifter 4cm @Northernlights 5cm @Northern Strath NS’s house will be buried in snow and ice and discovered by future generations of Archaeologists. @NorthernRab 7cm @Benvironment 12cm @Polar Gael 15cm @shuggee 20cm @Cheggers 10cm @NUT 10cm @Kayemill 12cm @Big Innes Madori 8cm @DR(S)NO 5cm @ghoneym 3cm @Mr Frost 8cm @ciel 2cm @howham 1cm @igloo 25cm @Spindrift2017 5cm @Mandy Langlands 1cm and @Hawesy 1cm
    16 points
  21. Hi goodmorning great people hope you all Have had a good start to the weekend. This is the very first time I am posting on this thread and firstly I just want to thank all the posters who display some great information and make it so much easier for the less knowledgable ones it's so nice to see the time and effort spent on these. i myself have only seen one decent snowfall this winter about a cm that was in my location Walthamstow N/E London back on the 10th December. Since then there has been the few odd times when there have been flurries but nothing of note. I can tell you every piece of heart is crying for this SSW to deliver something decent and I am sure there is s lot more others on here who will say the same thing. We know something is going to happen in the coming weeks but I think as human nature dictates we want this so much that any good output we see on a model gives us hope even if it is in the extended timeframe it still gives that bit of hope that maybe.... i have been really hard on myself now and said I am not going to get overexcited in any little decent model output that shows up this then widens the dissapointnent when the expected does not happen. This is what our weather is all about we can't control it. I really hope this coming SSW gives us something to remember but caution is always the best until the reliable timeframe. I know a lot of us are clinging to this as our last hope of seeing this winter out with a bang but it may ior might not happen. This event does tot guarantee our little island with the pleasure of winter. I hope I have not gone on too much let's just sit back and watch what unfolds but with caution, next week is going to be the most nail biting critical period fingers crossed that we get what we have all be waiting for. Lets hope winter will leave us with a smile ? Wish you all a great Saturday keep up the great posts kind regards ????
    16 points
  22. The 06z - now all but identical to the JMA yesterday looks a fair match for the transitional process post warming If this is going to move onto something Epic ( which it has a good chance to do ) then the polar regions will 'fill up' with High pressure a few days after this initial wave - with repetative Energy bursts of WAA...
    16 points
  23. If only Michael Fish could do this weeks BBC Forecast "Apparently a lady called in earlier to the BBC saying she had heard there was a big freeze on the way. Well if your listening don't worry there isn't, but having said that there will be some pretty cold air just across in Europe..,........,, ????? bless will definately be game on then
    15 points
  24. As mentioned in this tweet, effects from the SSW just aren’t being modelled correctly yet. So, maybe a few days to push before knowing where we go, how quick we see a response and which part of the world gets hit by a freeze etc....V interesting period ahead.
    15 points
  25. Ah Saturdays on the A9.. the ethereal way the morning sun light catches the snow and shimmers on the white, icy fields like a beautiful winter canvass, as white hares dash for cover across the terrain and the spectacle of mini-buses full of football fans parked in lay-bys all having a drunken p+sh in a line, bared ars+d, in to the wind.. can't beat it
    13 points
  26. Well I’m stunned ! The ECM is surely the love child of Satan! Its not just it didn’t want to know but said no with extra lashings of misery with the PV looking like it’s been pigging out at McDonald’s for the last week. The blob returns ! I seriously hope it’s gone AWOL this evening .
    12 points
  27. Could this be the second warming causing the PV to go into super defensive angry mode! I’m not sure the ECM is even on the M6 it looks more like it’s on a village tour taking in all the back roads !
    12 points
  28. With the words ve haff no tolerance of failure...the ECM has now faced the Mad firing squad,however the SSW...OBE..MBE ECT BO VD BBC,is on hand to save the day.It starts on the 12th,well maybe the 19th,nah mate deffo 22nd,im looking forward to a freezing March,weve had snow up here in July you know,so something for all,for non smokers..close but no cigar,stonemasons...nothing set in stone...racing fans...the form horse has bolted..its all there retrogression..total depression,self expression,thank gawd im off to sunny Blandford...cue Steve Mc Queen in the Great Escape...have a nice day lol
    12 points
  29. And here is my evidence, pretty comprehensive i think most will agree!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄
    12 points
  30. All I would say regarding the ups and downs of op output is that the Met office remain bullish on the effect of ssw probably bringing cold to the uk. Its worth remembering 1. They are the world leaders in forecasting. 2 They have access to far more detailed modelling than almost everyone on here.
    12 points
  31. i'm wondering if the reason we are seeing so much volatility in the models, is due to the zonal wind reversal, possibly being outside of the normal parameters of their programming- it literally drops off the scale!
    12 points
  32. Could this be the start of the ECM / GFS battle between backround signals starting to show? GFS keeping the MJO in phase 7 for some time, La nina forcing showing its hand GFS vs ECM GFS VS ECM GFS essentially showing the MJO tropical convection unable to make its way into stage 8 as the La Nina signal is still in charge. This is good as it allows the NAO to head negative and lock in the colder air due to mass of energy heading into the polar flows and the AZ high NOT weakening but positioning itself correctly. ECM appears to be backing off the La Nina signal somewhat with most ensembles heading towards a more Neutral state. That allows the weakened MJO to progress towards 8 & 1 and unlitmately its death. Of course the SSW modelling is a whole new ball game added into the mix and although we can see what the GFS is predicting in terms of this, no such access for the ECM variant (that I can find). What would be magic for the end of this winter would be for the MJO to follow the GFS path and then in time with the next uptick in GWO to further enhance the SSW trop response hopefully locking in pattern of cold. GFS ECM +240
    11 points
  33. You, Big Murr, Catacol and BA (Bluearmy) . BFTP
    11 points
  34. My goodness ! I nearly choked on my smoked haddock when I seen @Tamara ‘Ramping’ a GFS run ?, are the stars aligning ? Are we on the cusp ? Will Tamara’s head be right all along ! Tune in next time on ... The Northen Hemisphere’s got *potential* impending talent !!!
    11 points
  35. GFS now going with a rain to snow event on Tuesday. Something the BBC have been showing and I think a poster on here mentioned it the other day.
    11 points
  36. Yes, a windy unsettled and rather cold spell over the next few days looks pretty much certain. Thanks for the regular updates k, nice to get away from the, at times, rather frantic and personal atmosphere, in the main thread.
    11 points
  37. An update on today. Quite heavy rain later with snow in Scotland and high ground in the north of England and strong winds across Wales and the southern half of England. And need to keep a storm watch, and possible snow watch, next week as the Atlantic depressions gear up The westerly influence is reflected in the precipitation distribution
    11 points
  38. Looking at the extended 12z EPS H500 mean, it does get there with Scandi ridge in the means from day 12-14, even retrogression toward Greenland at day 15. EC wants us to wait longer for the Scandi ridge to build therefore? I guess the models are still not quite there with resolving how quickly the downward propagation of the SSW will impact the heights at 500mb level just yet. more runs needed before jumping in with one model when they differ.
    10 points
  39. 10 points
  40. If the GFS is right I’ll buy a new pillow and sleep with it forever
    10 points
  41. I knew I was saving my 1,000th post for something special...an op and control double whammy. My only slight concern is that most of the ens don’t follow this pattern, at least not to the same degree. If the ECM is on Board my excitement will grow...
    10 points
  42. Remember a few hours ago when everyone was a little downbeat at the poor overnight/morning model runs? Well.. Probably the best run from the GFS yet, very smooth transition, no headaches, cracker of a run
    10 points
  43. Just take a moment to consider how bizarre the pattern is in 6 days time; vast areas of fairly slack pressure gradients as the troughs in the Atlantic have the life drawn out of them while the blocking has yet to really focus itself anywhere. With GFS weakening the trough much quicker on this run but also keeping the upstream pattern flatter, so marking a shift to an accelerated version of ECM's recent runs, we are left looking at a situation in which we need enough of the remnant lower heights drifting down across Scandinavia to prevent the mid-Atlantic ridge from simply getting shunted right across the UK. It is looking rather finely poised on the 12z GFS but a much better effort than the 00z ECM, seemingly due in large part to the trough weakening height rises starting earlier (quicker deceleration of zonal winds on this run?) with results going into day 8 that are comparable to the 12z GFS and GEM of yesterday but slightly sooner in time; The 00z ECM left me baffled with much lower amount of zonal wind deceleration. By day 10 you could see it trying to establish the blocking to the NE anyway but the earlier progressiveness had really set things back in that regard. There's been much wonder about the AO not showing much sign of going negative during the first week after the SSW - seems to me that this is due to the focal point of height rises quickly moving from cross-polar to sit across Asia; the tropospheric height rises should therefore occur offset from the pole toward Eurasia - much as GFS has been playing around with for a number of runs now. It could well be that the lack of clear AO response is making the first-week impacts even more challenging for the models to capture. Liking this GFS run a good deal; plenty of cold air ready to the east and the Canadian vortex already in tatters. Over the following week I can see a route (based on this run) for a fragment of that vortex cross Svalbard and then drop down through Scandinavia or W. Russia... but that's just speculation for the fun of it .
    10 points
  44. I’ll be issuing my latest predictions around 7pm after I’ve (a) finished this walk and (b) had a couple of pints for Dutch courage
    10 points
  45. So another morning of runs are just about coming to an end and the volatile nature of the output continues, hardly surprising giving the nature of the atmosphere right now. Yes the weather is always chaotic so throw into the mix the beginnings of a strong Sudden Stratospheric Warming and the models are bound to struggle. I expect the output to continue in this vein for a while yet, no despondency from me only intrigue into how everything is unfolding. I think at least another week of rain interspersed with wintry showers or snow for some is on the cards, this weekend being the perfect example, rain in England & Wales today, snow in Scotland/Northern & Ireland and snow showers for some tomorrow. As some have already alluded to the dates of 18th, 19th 20th are when things could become far more interesting as blocking may start to setup somewhere between the North and East of the UK drying things out, but at the same time eventually and hopefully ushering in Winter proper and of course this then brings the threat of country wide snow. Don't be surprised to one minute see holy grail charts and the next not so good while the models are still getting to grips to this irregular pattern. I will end on this chart from the other day, not saying this is what we will end up with but it wouldn't surprise me if charts like this pop up again before the week is out. For once we have a number of signals all heading in the right direction so let's hope we finally hit the jackpot!
    10 points
  46. Still got a 1030mb high and a mean easterly in the T300 plus bit of the GEFS Long-termers in here (shall we call ourselves 'lifers'?) will know just how remarkable that is. GEFS is now consistently pulling this one out run after run. Oh and a note for following 500mb charts - due to the nature of the "cold high" over Scandi in winter, 500mb charts can often look like a weak block there, when actually there's a strong high at the surface.
    9 points
  47. @Tamara a couple of points that I would like to raise following your post The first is that the equatorial Kelvin wave that is likely to be set off from the recent strong peak in the MJO is likely to put an end to the La Nina - how quickly will the atmospheric nina state take to respond and a subsequent rise in GLAAM occur? Also take a look at this great tweet from AM showing the poleward transfer of u wind anomalies This looks like it will take time for any +ve u winds to hit the poles so the effects of the SSW could last for a while - 30 + days looking at that. So perhaps the tropical forcing won't be as strong as thought. 2009 was a totally different beast and the reason that any long term trop blocking following that SSW didn't occur may not be quite as valid now? Perhaps.
    9 points
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