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Your hatred of easterlies is remarkable. Did one freeze your nether regions in a previous life? ?

Hello! I like snow like you. I follow through Turkey.

That's all well and good Feb. But have you the exact time please

on the plus side, Tesco are doing a 21 pack of Kit-Kats for £2

Sod it, I’m moving to Canada! I’ll get sleep, I’ll be less stressed and most importantly I’ll get snow.

Nick Sussex, got much room at your house? Can you put up about 1000 nwp members? Looks like the cold from the ne is heading your way.

Decent ooz ens this morn.... Tighter clustering begining to appear.. Ops -as before-..will wobble with height align with hem state,-and decipher of placement. All very encouriging!! london suite

This latest extended chart from UKMO at 168t looks very similar to what JN model is showing. So UKMO must be still backing a block to the NE. Of course this is very different to what ECM is currently indicating in its run tonight, no easterly from them this time ! Would be good if the Exeter boys come out winners again on this one ( RE: ECM last failed easterly, that UKMO never really got on board with ).

Sorry peeps but I can’t see much more than a swipe from the beast as it passes to our se thats what the ens are reflecting with their members between -10 and -15 we had this last year at some point I think with a transient -12c over the eastern side of the uk. still time for the ridge to gain enough amplitude to allow a decent easterly flow or the euro trough to get further northwest but not currently favoured

Boaty McBoatface will be called in to clear a path through the Bay of Biscay at this rate!

I am not sure I will trust your weather predictions given that you fail to predict Easter accurately!!!

Ever heard of Sisyphus? Almost there...aw....it just slips away again

Who cares about a north westerly? I’d say there’s a fine balance between easterlies and something less desirable. UKMO looks really quite good to me, some of the air originates from deepest darkest Siberia. It has a more prolonged look to it too.

Irrelevant but the SE has struggled to even get slush count yourself lucky !

168..gfs 6z heights pushing north/north east..and opening large swathe cold into uk shores...already a v-feasible evolution..and one that makes you take note...as the deal is far from done...no matter your views -or choice. Edit;168 is cut off point -for me-.. Far to much to watch evolve after this on, migrate-push of vortex lobe...which will obviously be cricial/pivotal.

Is this the same Ec 46 that continually suggested scandi hieghts in the extended range through most of last winter.. ...... perhaps it might be worth rearranging the following .......salt of huge bucket with taken, be should.

Some fine margins in the outputs today; changeable short term - something drier for a time as we end the week and move into next week, and generally trending quite chilly - but nothing especially cold for what is on average the coldest part of the year. Heights are set to build strongly over scandi once the trough drops through the N Sea, but we also have a rampant PV to our NW feeding very cold air into the N atlantic and causing a tight thermal gradient - all the forcing is therefore coming from that feature, so perhaps no surprise to see the models quickly sinking the ridge to our east into a less favourable position for any easterly incursion; but if we maintain strong heights to our SW as well, every chance we could see a very deep dig of the atlantic trough spilling down the frigid arctic air as we move through the middle of the month with further ridge development over scandi - and by then perhaps the PV will be squeezing itself out naturally as the winter season draws on. All eyes on jetstream profile; and upstream signals. Its turning into one of those winters that never really settles into a groove; very changeable and more seasonal with alternating cold and mild, compared to recent either very wet predominantly mild zonal ones, or dry and never especially cold like last year.

You have told us about 10 times tonight on this forum that the easterlies are dead . Yes we have had a day of not so good model runs but stop.banging on bout it . And N Westlys don't do anything for 95% off us it will just be cold rain ?

Yeah chill mate...personally had enough of cold zonality this winter, only positives it brings is fairly clear skies to this part of the world (sorry you don't want to know that) other than continuous gloom we seem to get most winters...

The cold front currently across North Wales and the north of England will continue to track south clearing the south coast by this afternoon. Some strong winds, with cloud and patchy rain in the Tm air preceding it but clearer Pm behind it with the odd shower. Most of the UK will have a dry and quite clear and frosty night but frontal systems to the west of Scotland and Cornwall will track east bringing rain and strong winds to western Scotland and rain into the south west England and south Wales overnight into Tuesday.. This will move east during the day but the rain will persist over western Scotland, perhaps snow on the mountains, as the front associated with the depression 985mb over the Faeroes moves south east and impacting N. Ireland by 1800. Thus by 00 the cold front is lying across the borders with a couple of frontal ripples across the south of England and still very windy in the north with frequent wintry showers. From here some amplification takes place and the Azores HP starts pushing north which impacts the upper trough to the north west and it starts tracking south east. Thus the surface low does likewise which veers the strong surface wind north west and ensues a continuation of the squally wintry showers, particularly in the north and along western coasts. The low continues to run down the North Sea during Thursday and in the process veering the wind even more but probably concentrating the showers now down the eastern side of the country but the brief respite of a very transient ridge is very short lived as the next low tracks east south of Iceland and the associated front(s) are already impacting western Scotland and N. Ireland by 00 Friday. We have now reached the stage of the pattern change upstream with the EPO ridge, high cell Siberia and the active vortex/cold trough scenario. And how this plays out downstream in the medium term continues to be of interest with the the interplay of the Azores, positive anomalies and some ridging in the Svalbard area, and the positively aligned trough to the SE/S of the UK. Where will it all end?

I think you've been model watching too long ?

It’s a bit of a mess with the outputs disagreeing but not without interest in terms of snow. The PV blob over Greenland is reluctant to clear off but it’s likely any energy heading east will have a battle to clear the UK so snow along the boundary is possible. The UKMO as SM mentioned is best of tonight’s outputs which is strange given it was least interested upto this point. I think a proper easterly is probably a long shot but snow certainly possible over the next ten days.

The UKMO presents the best run for cold tonight - although the JMA runs it close- Interestingly as the GFS steps off the ‘wedge’ so the UKMO jumps on- Difficult to see sustained cold however there’s enough interest especially in the UKMO to see if tomorrow it starts increasing more energy south east again post 144 ( not North east like the ECM ) S

Too early to be writing off the Easterly. It's still knife-edge territory.

'very cold air' coming in from the north west?...as the majority of the UK could tell (other than northern uplands) after the last spell you don't get very cold from those situations. We had 7c for a couple of days in the south east.

Beast from the east spotted by Nathan Rao! Oh wait...nevermind...

Impressive threatening looking line of rain moving through with a cold front here atm

South east England looks very cold.

I do think we are clutching at straws now for circa 10th -12th feb, which for the 'its not worth getting cold in after that because of sun strength - id rather spring' camp then it realistically means game over, however for those old enough to remember 5th March 1995, same date 1987, and more pertinently, LATE APRIL 1981, who wouldn't turn their nose up at a late season dumping then there is one good piece of news from today - this chart, cant help feeling that gives us a great chance of a stonking late feb.

Oh well I’ll claim that as a minor victory then but I have heard the likes of Ian F refer to it... ? Ps it’s better than winters over lol

Seems like a standoff to me...

Is this a "winter's over" post I see before me?

Though that interesting phase of mid atlantic chill seems to have faded. We now have an SST pattern supportive of the +NAO winter we are having with warmer than average temperatures to our SW helping sustain the azores high. Low AAM at the equator also serving to strengthen sub tropical ridges. End result is a very tough pattern to break out of. We have an uptick in positive forcings at the moment (torques aligning with MJO progress) but nothing suggesting a solid impact in the near future to build a block in the right place... What about Mid February? Cant rule anything out in the world of weather, but the return of strong north American cold will do nothing to weaken north atlantic cyclogenisis and it will need to be one mighty big MJO cycle to give sufficient westerly additions at the equator to reduce atmospheric momentum at high latitudes significantly. Vortex developments also looking less and less helpful. I think I suggested a mid lat block was the best we might get out of the current pacific spike, and nothing yet to change that interpretation. We are all still glued to developments and there is always a chance of a sudden change - but the window for any realistic chances of significant and sustained continental cold with snow is steadily closing. Some really interesting tweets out there today and yesterday about the season in general - I'll put something together on the teleconnection thread later for viewing and discussion.

Early next week is heavily dependent on the behaviour of a LP system Fri-Sun that has been modelled with appalling inconsistency over the past few days so a lot of options do remain on the table.

Because we all know its going to verify and not change by Friday.

I'm confused....we have a potential (but unlikely) easterly in the offing, some of the lowest uppers I've seen all winter and some intriguing model output yet no sign of Frosty!? Somethings not right!!

As expected really, the 06z has cleared nothing up, other than it looks very likely to turn colder form next week, how cold and for how long remains to be seen.

Was just having a look there, looks very marginal to say the least. The GFS has a band of heavy rain sweeping through but turning to snow for a few hours as it departs and then some wintery showers thereafter but anything up til 6am on Wednesday morning looks the wrong side marginal without decent elevation. The main band of precipitation has pretty much dropped most of its load by 6am so possibly some heavy snow back edge of the band with some elevation and then wintery showers thereafter, mostly of snow inland I would suggest as conditions become more favourable. This is how GFS has it: but I'd take that with a pinch of salt. After 6am things look a bit more favourable, with a strong WNW, -5 850's widely, possibly even down to -6 850's and under 520 DAM, and 950's drop below zero as does the dew points : But prior to this, looking at 3am Wednesday, 950's are very dicey as are the dew points: Having said that, I'd imagine places in the highlands could get a decent dumping such as the south side of the great glen down to around glencoe, that would be my best guess about where would do pretty well, along with some areas north of the trossachs such as killin and Clifton for example.

Excellent News Very much looking forward to the Lighter Evenings and signs of Early Spring. C.S

Extended eps seems broadly similar to previous BUT there seems to be further intensification of the low heights over Greenland and Iceland. We need this trend to reverse. Overall, the NWP signals seem very mixed and a tad underwhelming.

Looking at the nh profile it's not difficult to see why there is the potential for cold shots. You might argue the "very likely" tweak the high slightly further north on the gfs chart and it is a cold shot. If you take that chart as it is, some would get wintry showers. Your post has a Monday morning feel to it

I’m not shocked at the lack of comments this morning, but ens still looking good! the Op just showing another plausible outcome. GEFS haven’t changed really, the spread is still very much clear to see, but a few more going for proper cold. ECM trickling out now.

Don't forget more than half the population of England would be affected with London and surrounding counties in the firing line for potential streamers. It's high time the South and East got their chance of some of the white stuff. share it out?

Very cold southern Britain southeast England heavy snow showers..

?????? its a week before that isn’t it ..... even more likely to be snow showers !

Feb if I'm honest that information given by Ian F is becoming a bit irritating, because I just can't see the Scandi High evolution coming off in the ensembles, except for a nano-second around D8. The UKMO, I suppose, is more interesting. What bothers me is that the Glossea has a history of being right but also being delayed. If this ends up a case of a growing trend to the Scandi High as February progresses, I do fear another delayed spring coming up.

Yep, nothing whatsoever cleared up. Won't be for a while yet either! P2 shows the alternative route and that it is still not to be discounted. The knife-edge tipping point remains IMO. The differences start upstream at just +72... This leads onto that amplification later on Sunday (now at D6)... That leads into this... Everything else forecast beyond of little use

I think there is more chance of a frigid winter easterly coming off in the next 20 years than I Remember Atlantic 252's prediction of February's rainfall figure of 252mm.

Now that's a Northerly I suspect all this easterly nonsense will soon be put to bed and once the Mid lat high breaks up we will get a pretty decent cold spell from the north

Someone who has noticed...AT LAST ?