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Showing most liked content on 29/01/18 in all areas

  1. 14 likes
    Nick Sussex, got much room at your house? Can you put up about 1000 nwp members? Looks like the cold from the ne is heading your way.
  2. 12 likes
    Boaty McBoatface will be called in to clear a path through the Bay of Biscay at this rate!
  3. 6 likes
    Early next week is heavily dependent on the behaviour of a LP system Fri-Sun that has been modelled with appalling inconsistency over the past few days so a lot of options do remain on the table.
  4. 6 likes
    Excellent News Very much looking forward to the Lighter Evenings and signs of Early Spring. C.S
  5. 6 likes
    Extended eps seems broadly similar to previous BUT there seems to be further intensification of the low heights over Greenland and Iceland. We need this trend to reverse. Overall, the NWP signals seem very mixed and a tad underwhelming.
  6. 6 likes
    Looking at the nh profile it's not difficult to see why there is the potential for cold shots. You might argue the "very likely" tweak the high slightly further north on the gfs chart and it is a cold shot. If you take that chart as it is, some would get wintry showers. Your post has a Monday morning feel to it
  7. 5 likes
    And gone is the cold signal in the GEFS plume
  8. 4 likes
    It’s amazing just how much of a drama the models have made of the upstream pattern. Tonights differences between the GFS and UKMO from an early timeframe continue to show divergences. The UKMO looks like it will force that lobe of high pressure further ne at T168hrs so quite a nice run. Ironically the GFS which was much more keen on the better evolution has now dropped that. Lets see what the ECM has to say.
  9. 4 likes
    South east England looks very cold..
  10. 3 likes
    Lots of posters who profess to knowing what will happen nowadays on this thread which makes for hard reading. Here is as far as I go 144z METO 12Z 168Z Looks like the low heights over Genoa are moved to the Iberia region pulling in an easterly flow of sorts.Probably wrong and will change but better saying what it shows. Which incidently is what JMA tries to do 144z 168z
  11. 3 likes
    Avery still mentioned the Easterly but prefers the high close to the west and dry (one of those crappy circular ones that never ridge north and all they do is waste time by the sounds of it)
  12. 3 likes
    I do hence why Im posting about it...... Is that okay? The uppers don't look that special at 120 and if the run follows this morning the 168 chart will have a high over the UK with the coldest air to the east, The GFs has swept the very cold air away by day 8. Vs North Westerly more likely to verify (based on GFS 12z and GEFS 06z), just hope that high can back west a little, Everyone seemed to ignore the very cold runs on the GEFS has been removed on the 06z run!
  13. 3 likes
    Too far out to know what’s going to happen still.At least the gfs ensembles have trended colder again,which is encouraging.
  14. 3 likes
    I am headed for london now, will check your report that bins are ok.
  15. 3 likes
    -12 850's quite far in EDIT -make that -13 's
  16. 2 likes
    Well that’s Pants!! Scandi Heights off the table
  17. 2 likes
    Just to confirm, big three at +96 no cross model agreement! No 2 models completely agree even with the upstream setup at +96. Still all options on the table. oh and an EC update tonight...
  18. 2 likes
    But you cannot sugar coat that gfs run, or disregard it either. Look what happened with the last easterly fiasco. The Euros said yes, but the gfs stuck to its guns and we all know what happened in the end. The gfs has been the most consistent this winter, so we cannot bin it.
  19. 2 likes
    I was just commenting on the gfs run! You do like to nit pick, don’t you Also, read the last bit again. I didn’t say ‘it is going pear shaped’. No disrespect, but you seem very quick to judge people, which I find rather odd.
  20. 2 likes
    Too many people here get hung up by one run, the 12z will have a different outcome. when it gets too about 96hours then think its about correct give or take a few hundred miles etc, its just a trend at the minute. We all just want the trend to end up in our favour by 96hrs.
  21. 2 likes
    This is brought about by the trigger low diving South East. The real amplification driven by the Glaam state will happen after. This original bout of colder 850s depend on this low so is susceptible to placement
  22. 1 like
  23. 1 like
    Each to their own obviously, but its not as if March is particularly close to Summer and in September say it's common for many to hope for a final spell of Summery warmth and sunshine before it generally becomes too cool for such so I don't see why there should be a sudden rush for signs of the other major season to start showing its hand 6 months later. Besides I'd rather have a cold snowy March followed by a warm and sunny Summer than a pleasant and sunny March followed by a drab and overcast Summer. Not that one should lead to the other but you take my point that even if March is pleasant it hardly has any bearing on when it should matter, i.e. in Jun/Jul/and Aug so there's no need to feel as if warm weather should start showing up too soon and with March been historically full of potential for harsh wintry weather, for those that enjoy such I just want them to realise that though in their minds Winter ends on the 28th/29th Feb, nature itself doesn't acknowledge that date and the potential in reality actually exists,at least a month if more after that date so in other words the annual window for when deep snow cover and sub zero temperatures is physically possible won't be over for quite a while yet.
  24. 1 like
    The latest Euro4 is pretty solid for a decent shot at some very heavy snow showers on Wednesday, it looks fairly similar to Super Tuesday but not quite as potent.
  25. 1 like
    Dont matter how you put in the blanks thats still not a word i want to see. I'll keep to myself what id like to call you. And hit the ignore button.
  26. 1 like
    Background is the SO has no real purpose since Devo but, under Fluffy, the SO has quietly but actively been advertising for and poaching staff for new premises at Leith. Think there is some 100 new Civil Service personnel incumbent. Add in Fluffy's vague promises that powers will come to Scotland but nothing definite and no guarantee they will go to the SG post Brexit. Stuart Campbell (Wings over Scotland) wisely not commenting until more info. Others less reticent. Very much a mebees aye, mebees naw atm.
  27. 1 like
    I’ll take wintry showers at the moment. They’ll probably give a better covering than the last pathetic slush fest we had!
  28. 1 like
    It’s all good here! Will be interesting to see the final outcome when all models reach agreement. That won’t be for a few days yet as there are still stark differences between them. You just know the ECM will throw another spanner in the works tonight too
  29. 1 like
  30. 1 like
    Posting here due to 'Frosty ground' saying this is for cry babies so that's where I'm posting 12z a really poor run with a lot of energy in the northern arm of the jet if an easterly is what your after...really seems like bashing your head against the wall following the models presently. A lot of promises since after Xmas but delivering very little other than cold zonality if that's your thing. Come back in April we'll have easterlies a plenty! (sobbing to myself as I type) - just for you Frosty ground.
  31. 1 like
    yes it has been the theme all season and there is nothing to suggest its going to change anytime soon many people have done well from these north westerlies this season one thing which looks strange is you don't often see all the PV slap bang on our side of the hemisphere with nothing in Siberia and I mean nothing that's from all models for the past 3-4 days now
  32. 1 like
    Better what’s also very apparent is the Genoa Low I believe it’s called which was not there on 06z ! Actually was just not as quick, should slow down the progression...
  33. 1 like
    It's no wonder Cameron bailed when Brexit won, he knew the person taking on the job was in for a hiding. Even if May goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer, it won't make any difference to the monumental problems which lie ahead. Utter chaos at the moment.
  34. 1 like
  35. 1 like
    Deleted, not worth the bother.
  36. 1 like
    Just tried a dash of the old empathy stuff, old chap...But, having tried discussing things with my menagerie of stuffed furry animals, I thought I'd better give it a miss. Anyways, I kept tripping over the golden threads that were coming off my rich person's carpet slippers...So much with empathising with the Honourable Member for The Seventeenth Century?? I think I'll stick to empathising with the homeless, from now on. At least they might need it!
  37. 1 like
    Quite a big difference from the 00z to 06z run at +114 in the Atlantic
  38. 1 like
    We will see later if glosea has called it wrong,how do you know yet when no Easterly actually exists yet think the met have access to far more data than most people on here,let’s all see later who has egg on their faces or not
  39. 1 like
    Yeah, the NW flows have been pretty poor for delivering decent snow in very recent years here, unless at decent altitude. Here, we had a number of decent events on WNW/NW flows from 2009 onwards, but in the past 2 or 3 years or so at least, these have been fairly poor. Even when we expect to have/have decent synoptics, marginality seems to creep in nowadays. Give me crisp, cold sunny days over cold rain any day!
  40. 1 like
    Hopefully more Sunshine than wintry Showers,I think we learnt a week a go than -7HPA Does not deliver from a W/NW Direction. C.S
  41. 1 like
  42. 1 like
    There is still a large spread on that chart after the 1/2/18
  43. 1 like
    Any news on the ECM Ens people ? Or are they not to good . Thanks .
  44. 1 like
    He’s basically saying the trend is good for cold from the east. Usually, the bias would be for westerly winds (that’s what he means by climatology), so the fact 25% of members are going against this and favour the easterly, is a good sign for cold....as things stand.
  45. 1 like
    Dry and breezy with good sunny spells, 14C...Meteorological schizophrenia always sets in on days like this!
  46. 1 like
    That's leave's main problem in Scotland. They promised massively more devolution; that Scots could take back full control of all the (devolved) powers Brussel had. That e.g. Scots fishing and agriculture would be fully controlled by Edinburgh... That Scotland would have a veto on new UK trade deals... Got them 25% of the electorate, both brexiter and scexiter (1/3 of Scottish leave voters support Scottish indy). First thing the English leavers do however is try to take back control of devolved powers, shutting down Holyrood and grabbing Scotland's resources with their brexit bill. Hence for the first time over 300 years of union, we have all Scots parties, both unionist and nationalist, uniting as one to vote to refuse legislative consent. History has just been made. Scotland has never refused legislative consent, for to do so is to say that the UK must end if agreement cannot be reached. To have that happen is explosive and means we are one step away from the treaty of union being repealed. Next month the s**t really hits the fan when Scotland - likely unanimously - votes to pass its own post brexit continuity bill to preserve devolution. That stalls brexit unless the UK agrees to a full Scottish veto, or we start formal divorce proceedings. I still remain dumbfounded that we've got to this point. To watch even the Scottish Tories vote with the SNP against London was truly something.
  47. 1 like
    True but it won’t be them suffering . Its always the general public who end up taking the brunt of politicians playing games.
  48. 1 like
    Great blog Julian. Thanks. The heavy snowfall expected here in the French Alps didn't arrive today (Friday). I've watched the forecasts slip back and back as the incoming front stalls out west. The cold temps not arriving either and a brisk southerly wind, so a bit slushy down in the village a few degrees above. But at least another good day's skiing 'up top' in variable cloud. The off-piste freaks in our chalet group reckon they've had the best week's skiing ever after last weekend's heavy fall. Last day tomorrow before flying home Sunday..... darn it, where did that week go!!
  49. 1 like
    The suns out. Picture of the Gontal Valley, off piste from Katchberg. Pristine conditions with no motors allowed in this valley. C
  50. 1 like
    Well, Andalusia and the Basque Country have a very very differnt climate
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