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I think we will look back at January's H500 anomaly and think how on earth was it not a frigid month ? Lack of cold pooling to our east doesn't seem so much of a potential barrier this time round, so is the EC op correct or more appropriately in the right ball park ? Looking at today's MJO synthesised plot, we are already in a phase 4 / 5 transition and heading towards phase 6. EC looks much closer to the mark on this, the GEFS dragging its heals a bit (low angular momentum bias?). Angular momentum, as expected, showing an upward trend. The key questions being the rate of injection of westerlies arising from the tropical wave shifting eastwards, and extratropical interaction. I suspect GEFS is too slow, EC closer to the mark on the tropics so we must assume more westerlies than being shown by the GFS products, and therefore greater prospect of more amplification commencing day 7 onwards as the GWO is shifted closer to a phase 4 transition. Interestingly GFS angular momentum shows a slowing of the westerly flow at mid latitudes from day 7. That's potential eddy signal which Scandinavian ridges are made of. Looking further ahead, we continue to see eastward migration of the MJO and every chance that it will enter phases 7 and 8 during early February. Synoptically, cold signal still there so getting some cold over or close to our shores will be crucial. So bottom line is I'm much more enthused by the EC signal albeit with some reduced strength from 12z EPS compared to last time around.

Cheers (all) lets hope it actually lands now- although evolution wise easterlies in the last 10 or so years have nearly all come from the Azores ridge - not the Russian high- I tink there almost extinct!! If we can sharpen that slider at 120 would be the cherry on the mr kipling...

Please stop posting individual cold ens members ! Seriosuly, there is always a decent cold member on every run and you will just get folk excited ! better to post a picture of a yellow wall as that’s calming ..........

storm 'Fionn' is now re-named storm 'Feeble'. i've had stronger farts!

By Jove is that an Easterly setting up on the ECM 120>144>168 Looking great - transition @just 1/0-144 now..

Back in and knackered.

Sorry about my above post ,totally cocked up on this one .Not often i post charts ,and dont know where my Text as gone ,anyhow chart 168 hrs looks good to me and its as far as i will look at the moment .I got woken up at just gone 7am today by Churchill my Dog ,he was barking at my computer and his lips were saying Slider and Beasterly . A good start to the day gang ,but we must stay focused ,very very interesting Model watching coming up ,Many opportunitys for the white stuff depending on Location , storms , lightning , Mother nature putting on a show Gang ,But i think the computer models will tease us with many outcomes , this is better than the usual Mild mush ,cheers .

Evening All The 12z > 00z ECM Mix articulates well why there was a 50/50 split for debilt in the T2Ms earlier... Weather is fascinating in terms of how much the overall pattern is impacted by the shortwave pattern. I believe the next 72 hours modelling will be the definitive signature to dictating our ever lasting impression on Winter 17/18- As ever it will boil down to energy distribution / initial amplification & where the energy closes off allowing for high pressure to build over the top- The GFS ensembles are generally late to the party here. UKMO a better guide as is ‘generally’ the ECM- The 144-192 evolution will revolve around where the energy goes once the low closes off - UKMO 12z 144 / ECM 00z 144 show the scenario we are searching for note All amplification is forced over the block- so UKMO 144 not as good as the 00z ECM but similar to ECM control- Now the 12z ECM ( just remember how progressive it has been on MANY OCCASIONS) takes the energy NE like the GFS ens.... So There you have it - All or nothing with the runs tonight- Forecast still favours a southerly closed low like the UKMO I also like the site of that Russian 1070MB high... High model shannon Entropy tonight with divergence @120- S

Just had a snowball fight on the deserted A road. Knackered!

Caution: Some of the following scenes may contain upsetting images. There may be a NW helpline for any viewers personally affected by the issues graphcally shown above......

On the other hand ......

No scientific links to post but all the info is out there eg spaceweather etc as most are besotted by AGW science. Folk normally round up on us as crack pots who think that solar/lunar effects have any control over our weather BFTP

Just back in from sledging with the kids, great fun! This has been the best snow event here since 2010. I will remember this one for years to come and maybe it’s still not over yet!

I’ve seen lightning to the SW from up here in NE Somerset. We have had a few sleety snowy showers over recent hours when the wind really whips up but nothing of note. Incidentally I am not a lover of those BBC Weather or Met Office rainfall apps. Worth £20 a year to subscribe to the V7 radar from here. Even the free radar apps are better than hopecasting from a graphic. I have mine set up to alert me when a shower is approaching then go on sentry duty out of the upstairs window before it arrives. The wife thinks I’m mad.

Caught the tail end of it on video! (Was too busy watching in amazement to record it ) Fair whack in the garden now. Will take better pictures in the morning! Still a few hours of these intense snow showers to go! On a side note I am going to be a dad on March 5th - wish he was here just now to see this! (Parents and kids are currently out with sledges) - hopefully we see a day or days like this again in the future! It really has been unbelievable- will never forget 16/01/2018! A96A94D5-5217-4916-944A-70899AA64680.MOV

Great to see many Scots getting plastered with snow. Do enjoy it and thanks for the pics.

Nuking it again. This is my other half's car a few minutes ago.

Proper white oot here. Must hae around 6 cm on the picnic bench now. Stopped and took a wee video on the way back fae gala. VID-20180116-WA0009.mp4

It would be wonderful for all cold fans if this Ecm chart was to come off. 3rd time lucky ? What I can say about it, well the block is strong through the heights and is better positioned further west than the last attempt. However, as we all know getting there has been difficult over the past few years, but I have a feeling the synoptics shown this winter so far, we will not be far off. Again will be interested by what our portal service forecast has in mind looking at this mornings outputs as they did hint a protracted cold spell is still very much in the making. Will get back later with a update. Anyway enjoy the snow showers today up north. C

Surely the ECM just over amplifying the azores high? How many ECM Easterlies in the last 5 years have actually happened when shown at 168+. Don't get sucked in.

Plenty snow on the way home earlier tonight. Heavy, drifting in places. The winter tyres were faultless and I prefer being able to stick to be empty back roads away from all the muppets. About 8cms at home. Not snowed for a while but the radar is looking good to the west. That's some warning map from the met office!

I made him take a pic If you can see the two wheelie bins, one was cleared a couple of hours ago and is covered again. The other one hasn't been touched. The car was cleared as well lol, bit of a waste of time!

cycle sledging lily sledge_1_1_1.mp4

15 cm and still coming. A68 pretty bad but passable. 2 cars abandoned on the back road tae the hoose.

Perhaps, as @bluearmy suggests, posts cherry picking single cold ensemble members would be better in the ramping (banter) thread, as that's essentially what they are, unless those charts are also accompanied by other discussion to provide some reasoning as to why they may come off, as opposed to them just looking nice from a cold perspective.

I can't believe there could be another 10 inches to come

Steve, hats off to you for sticking to your guns on this. You've been adamant about a change in output and one thing I do admire on this forum is someone who has the courage of their convictions when forecasting. Lovely little set up if it comes off, and Europe will be cold, minus double digits Celsius in a swathe of Central Europe I suspect, so proper cold to tap into and anything from the east could be a bit of beast. Plenty to resolve before then though so lets keep our powder dry and fingers crossed.

Really?? You honestly think we are miles away from it? I certainly don’t. I think we are close at pulling in a proper Easterly within 10-14 days, much much closer than the majority of op outputs will have us believe. The ingredients are clearly there in the outputs. OK, I’d put decent money on you being right with regards to us ending up disappointed but - not because of the lack of potential. Now you can dislike the word ‘potential’ as much as you like, but without it in the first place, a proper Easterly is never going to occur anyway. They simply don’t pop up out of nowhere if the Synoptics are not conducive. And this is not standard zonal mush, with an all conquering polar vortex. We have Arctic heights meandering around and the block to the NE going nowhere fast, waiting to be reinforced, which it will be. Upstream forcing will then dictate where we move to. This is still very much game on as we head towards the end of the month..

I'd be worried if she's saying that and you're not there...

Some hefty snaw here today giving a nice wee covering! Currently 13 Cm oan the decking. Big Innes

Blizzard conditions at present, must be topping 5 inches now

epic shower last hour that has lied in city centre.... heading home in excitement to see if my grass blades are non visible for first time since 2013

Pics taken earlier, we got more now

I mentioned yesterday that I was surprised the Met Office hadn't issued an amber warning bearing in mind the model guidance, especially from the WRF high-res, but I see they've issued it up today so better late than never. There's already 10 cm of lying snow in Moffat and the showers are piling in so I wouldn't be surprised to see 20 cm+ by the end of today. My wee van stands out like a wasp in your ice cream

We only had a tiny dusting this morning. This shower has given us loads.

Motherwell town centre. A rare site.

At least it's not going t*ts up over here i havn't posted the past week due to personal circumstances and have been a bit stressed of late with daughter issues(she was daignosed with ADHD/autism spectrum) and i am having trouble trying to deel with it of which is tough going and i am trying to get a shift change to try and get regular days so that i can be here more for her because my partner cannot cope with the abuse from her,we are trying to get help for this anyway,from derailing this thread moreover i am sorry to come out with this as i am so emotional at the minute,so i will try and be more resolute to the models in terms of this runner and i say this is that it ins't much different to a slider in terms of a trough to our north/northeast,the more the vigorous the trough to our NE the more forcing to the south of it,watch out for this as it will be key for this runner early Dec proved this with the trough to the north and it came down to the wire as regards to the slider,models was struggling with this prior to the output just two days ahead and still ended further south than modeled,i wish i had the time to post the similarities but maybe i will do that tomorrow meanwhile,tomorrow and into Wednesday will produce for some(elevation especially) but there could be a few surprises if the ppn is heavy enough or trough formation/streamers take hold Wednesday/Thurday storm one to watch,happy viewing guys,stay safe.

Urrggghhhh! Everything out the front door was white, quiet and fantastic looking. Then the council send folks round with noisy things, big metal scraping things and brown sandy sh*t!

yes took me over an hour.... somehow a traffic jam in snow is so much nicer though.... about 4cm here which i am delighted with and by morning suspect will be bang on @Hawesy prediction or gulp even more.... given heaviest to come more showers bound to make it here.... been bike sledging since home from work.... great fun

The ECM drops its super tease but for good measure and to make sure its viewing figures don't slide it brings the Russian high further west at T216hrs! It's beginning to resemble one of those Z list celebs on Big Brother. Attention seeking with little substance, be gone with you ECM! Anyway after my mini rant, this evolution is possible but whether this easterly tease ever bears fruition only time will tell. To be honest I'm bored of them! Its like the constant trailer for a film which shows the good bits, turn up and you realize the two minutes of good trailer was it.

Snow building up on the window sill against the double glazing. And I have a one foot plus drift by the coal bunker. Simply marvellous.

Dog very impressed About 2cm at the minute, still snowing lightly. Expecting a good freeze as darkness gathers.

Oh that's better. 2 inches in the last half hour

Living down in Kent and having been snow free for 4 winters now(bar a 1cm fall on 12th Jan 2017!) it is great seeing all your pics of the snow and it looks like you could be in for a good night as the snow hopefully intensifies in the next 6 hours.Cant believe bbc news showed nothing but hopefully by tomorrow morning that will be different.Good luck to you all tonight and hope you all get plastered!!I will be getting plastered but not with snow

So congrats to the Scottish contingent for getting the snow 60 cm will be the jackpot zone for some this week - !!!!

Hammering it down in glenrothes.

Cannae see anythin cause eh the snaw!

Love mucking around with this HYSPLIT thing.. A look back to where our SNAW was born..

Couple of pictures.. Heaviest shower clearing East. Garden table ( technical measure) see also bin lids.. M-8 this morning..

Interesting ECM! Just goes to show what could happen and quite quickly. Now don't shoot me down for posting this, I know these charts aren't the same and I'm not saying we are heading for a historical cold spell or anything like that. But I just wanted to point out the evolution from 1947 to today's ECM, I love the way today's ECM sucks that high North in the fashion it does and voila a 'proper cold spell' is on the horizon, also note toward the end of the ECM the cold building rather than moving away. Let's hope it's a trend and a very good one at that. 1947 popped up so to speak out of knowhere. The cold building out east toward the end of the ECM This Winter does have the feel to me that we will get a proper cold spell sooner rather than later.