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Apparently a lady rang the Met Office earlier this week and said there is an Easterly on the way. Don't worry there isn't......

Here are my rather crude drawings. Forgive me but I suffer from dreadful shaking in my hands. These charts are for the period between 13th -15th Jan in my opinion.

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother. Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

@fat chad & Everyone I am still basing my forecast on the below image with 2 caveats for expected change - 1) heights & cold pool ... > If you draw a big circle around Central Europe on that meteociel chart the height are 544-548 ( green ) with a cold pool around 0c to -4c ** History indicates that the GFS over estimates these heights by 4-8 dam sometimes even 12 dam which is another reason why it looked so tame V the euros- assumjng The Easterly lands as predicted above then expect that Green to change to the first colour of blue with even a central pool of lower heights into the next layer of blue - so a forecast to drop from 544-548 to 536-540 ( core pool 532 dam) This will also signify a reduction of upper temps along a similar gradient so instead of 0 to -4c you get -2 to -8c * Secondly the glow allignment is SEasterly - this can also be a GFS bias of the strength of the southern arm not being identified to sub T120 below is the T156 Jet chart from 06z look as we get nearer 120 & below for more of an Arc / n shape across Italy - more amplification- this will enhance the easterly allignment- if you look at T54 that’s why the Easterly is getting sharper now because of the upwards flow so these would Be my pointers to everyone looking in on the models looking for a more classical Easterly @168.. The forecast for this period (144-192) is my representation research & acknowledgment of bias - no one else’s. thanks S

As promised have an update from a foreign field. Firstly, latest snow model( outer perimeter results) still show some snow accumulation in a convergence zone at 6h Sat morning. Zone affects Manchester, Peak District, Cheshire, Shropshire and parts of Wales. Amounts non significant (1-5 cm ) Freezing level quite low. Specific to UK regarding next week. Still favour block over Southern Scandinavia lasting till Friday at least . Their short range charts still show low pressure development by Thursday to SW of England . Their own forecasting model indicates any Atlantic fronts making limited/no progress into the British Isles and temp profile for the next 7 days shows negative anomaly for British Isles at least.. Interest remains especially to the Atlantic spin next week and development to the SW of England . A long way off but something to watch. C

Please stick to the models. I'm bored of reading through all of the nonsense, it wastes my time, other member's time and kills this thread. Bugger off to the other thread.

Keep an eye on that flattish anomalous ridge in the central Pacific. GEFS and GFS both moving it eastwards through day 9 - sure sign of evolution in the MJO. The ideal for subsequent amplification is for this ridge to weaken and a second ridge to develop in the North Pacific towards the Aleutians. Many reasons to be positive for cold going into the final third of the month.

Based on the quite long learning curve I have had, and experience with the GWO thus far, I must say this is one of the best overlay illustrations anyone starting out themselves so soon with the concept of the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamical Model) could produce. Also, on the basis of my own recent analysis of frictional torque and mountain torque in terms of what it might imply on NWP mid and higher latitude patterns heading through January I would highly recommend the interpretation Snowy has given in terms of the subsequent possible extra tropical reactions that would occur to the on-going MJO phase. The precisely forecasted track of the GWO is less important here in terms of taking timing and amplitude at 100% face value, though certainly very plausible in general extended outlook terms. What matters is the anticipatory grasp shown of the principles of the AAM budget and how wind-flow additions and exchanges (that are always in permanent flux) illustrate the process of net easterly winds (c/o la Nina forcing) interplaying with the effects that eastward moving tropical convection superimpose in terms of westerly wind additions Excellent post in my opinion

Hello I'm the ECM. On Wednesday I promised you a two week holiday travelling on first class to New York. On Thursday I promised you just a week in Paris. On Friday I cancelled your holiday. Which sums up the descent of the ECM to some dire looking output for coldies bar the last frame tease! Of course now that the ECM has by far the worst looking output it will probably be right! By T96hrs you knew it was a horror show with it being much more progressive than the rest, having said that theres a large spread in the ensembles in some key areas shown by the ECM spreads. I fear the worst because the ECM has form here, dropping the coldest solution and then kicking coldies when they're down. Tonight we'll see whether the ECM is correct, given the timeframes thankfully the drama should end by this evening!

Perhaps a little too much to ask for a long fetch easterly battling out the atlantic, given the depth of cold spilling out of the eastern USA / Canadian seaboard over the coming days - the high pressure isn't building out from the siberian high or arctic high, its beginnings a response to the trough dropping through the UK - a ridge best way to describe it, but it is set to enlarge quite significantly, just not in the right place or orientation to pull in an easterly flow, and force the atlantic on a NW trajectory. The main feature that is ruling the roost, is a continued very amplified flow, despite what appears to be a very bullish PV to our NW, all forcing is coming from the NW, and once again the models are suggesting cold zonality by the middle of the month, with the jet aligned NW-SE, is winter 17/18 going to be known as the winter that the Polar Maritime airstream returned.. after years and years of absence it feels. Crucially this time around we will have significant cold uppers spilling into the polar front thanks to the frigid air over NE Canada, the chance of significant snow seems high in my opinion, with low heights dropping through the UK and into central europe, allowing for more robust height developments to our NE. So whilst we look like seeing a fairly average spell of temps next week, another flip to cold and possibly very wintry weather looks highly probable with a set up much more conducive thereafter for the first real chance of northern hemispheric blocking in a position to bring deeper cold uppers from a more NE quarter.

The Icelandic clusters this morning confirmed a switch in the whole ECM suite to a situation where the Atlantic front is either over the UK, or pushes right through the UK by T144. I thought I'd also take a moment to highlight some key things to be aware of when using these particular cluster charts! First - use the anomaly colours with great, great care!! The clusters chart have very sexy colours on them - ones instinct might be to think "Deep positive anomalies at the top right of the chart = strong NE blocking". Not necessarily!! I think a comparison of actual vs anomaly charts on Meteociel demonstrates this nicely. Take the T144 ECM op charts as an example: Looking at the Z500s (the green/blue colours), you'd think there's just a transitory wedge of heights that is unlikely to stand in the way of the Atlantic. But looking at the anomaly chart in isolation you could rush to the conclusion that there was blocking all the way from Scandi. As you can see, not so!! The thing to remember is - in winter, the norm is for the north to have low heights. Therefore, positive anomalies could merely mean an absence of low heights. You need very positive anomalies to indicate a block. Take the ECM op from Wednesday (which did show a block): Using the clusters view for the same chart (see the chart under "op"), there is a very large area with the deepest red available directly to our NE (they don't do black holes on these cluster charts!) So lesson one - when looking for a northern block in winter, you are looking for the most extreme level of positive anomaly - a modest anomaly will not be sufficient. Secondly - the angles of the Icelandic charts and the Meteociel charts are not the same, and this makes a big difference!! I'll repost the current T144s to make the point: again using cluster three (the one with "OP" above it) - on the right of the chart, you'll see the 546mb line over Southern Scandi, and then another line to its left is the 540mb line. The 540mb line is more or less represented on the Meteociel chart by the first light blue colour. If you look closely, you'll see that on both charts, this line runs through southern Sweeden, through Denmark, through the Low Countries, along the very north of France and finally clipping the SW of England and Ireland. However, on Meteociel, the line from Sweden to around Paris runs from the top-right towards the bottom-left. But on the Icelandic clusters, it looks like a straight line from north to south. If this difference is not appreciated, it may lead to a completely incorrect comparison of the two charts. The reason why this happens is because the Icelandic charts are more like a globe, with everything running towards the pole - but the Meteociel charts we tend to see on here are more like a poster of the world one would put on the wall - with Greenland consequently stretched unrealistically. The consequence is that, by mistakenly thinking "right to left = east to west", what might look like a NEly flow on the Icelandic clusters might in reality be an Ely flow - and what might look like an Ely flow might be a SEly one. So I hope that might help people interpret these EC clusters that we have free access to. Let's hope tonight's 12Z charts resemble cluster 2 - much better attempt at the Scandi High (though this one doesn't last either...)

Morning. The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow. This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.

Apologies if that came off like that, TEITS. Was genuinely excited to see what was coming. I love it when old hands ( I mean that affectionately!) like yourself puts pen to paper to show us your thoughts.

There's no point sugar coating any of the output this morning, although UKMO and GFS prolong the undercut of the block over NE Europe, the block is too far east to advect any decent cold our way to interact with Atlantic frontal systems and bring snow away from hills, more likely source for any snowfall would come from Polar maritime flow from the NW. The EPS and GEFS point to an extension / lobe of tropospheric PV over N Canada have increasing influence again on the weather over NW Europe, i.e. +NAO signal and this has been showing in the ENS for a while, despite what the now ridiculed EC op has shown earlier in the week. Looking longer term, +EPO signal showing for a while in the ENS with low pressure/troughing over NE Pacific replacing the -EPO ridge that was a familiar feature through December, so the upper flow flattening out across N America, with deep cold over mid-west and Ern U.S. retreating back to Canada with time and the flow flatter over the N Atlantic as a result. 10-15 day mean 500mb heights from both GEFS and EPS indicate low heights anomaly over UK/Ireland - which indicates low pressure systems a plenty crossing the UK, but could contain some cold Pm shots, best we can hope for until the pattern changes. The MJO is headed through the 'warmer phases' in next few weeks, i.e. the wave is too far west (Indian Ocean) to have an effect on providing poleward upper divergence and effect changes in upper flow over N Pacific, so the flow will remain zonal across the N PAC, N America and N Atlantic. However, the EC weeklies out last night did show a return of the -EPO later this month and we may see the MJO orbit back into colder phases later this month too. But for now, think I will have a break from analysing the models in any great depth for cold and do more constructive things with my time, obviously keeping an eye on them, because I don't think the block over NE Europe will have much influence before it fades, more the Atlantic will. Hard to swallow, but that's life being at the windward end of a large ocean. Its seems that recent years (post 2011) that unless you live on the eastern side of the large continental landmasses of the Northern Hemisphere, being N America and Eurasia, the moderating effects of the warm oceans and the anomalously warm arctic will keep the cold away.

He's working on it

America... There's nothing to thaw here

Can we please please please drop the "this model won/lost" crap. I don't come here to trawl through pages of posts after work when half of them aren't even related to the actual weather. It was a difficult situation, we all know this it was said multiple times. Every model struggled and there was no clear winner only losers, us cold lovers.

I am not too sure, if a Phase 8/1 MJO signal is possible. You might notice that the last two MJO cycles have shown a significant weakening around Phase 8. That is because of the underlying Niña state. The Niña Easterlies will compete with the MJO westerlies. The Niño regions are within Phase 7/8, so that is where the strongest Niña Easterlies are. The MJO signal will be beaten by the Niña Easterlies, which is shown in the data. So a prolonged Phase 7/8/1 event is probably not going to happen IMO anyway. But this has an effect on the AAM. And after some helpful PMs and subsequent reading of studies and other online material, I have come up with this forecast. Currently we have a -MT and -FT phase. When the MJO (Westerlies) comes into interaction with the Niña Easterlies, it will cause positive frictional torque. +FT moves the GWO to Phase 3/4. The torque propragtes into the mid latitudes, and helps a +MT pattern to develop. This causes a proper GWO Phase 4, at the height of the MJO Phase 6/7. When the MJO signal weakens at the hands of Niña, the +FT will be lost, and the GWO will start to move towards Phases 8/1. Then the MT will go negative a few days after, and then the GWO Phase 1 takes hold. The MJO is linked to the AAM in this instance. Monthly models such as the EC Monthly and POAMA, show the MJO moving towards Phases 6/7 later this month, so this will be when these events occur. In the meantime, the negative AAM tendency will continue, and maybe the AAM will follow GEFS for once. Just think about that! Anyway.... the MJO moves through IO, and towards Maritime Continent. You guys in England get single digit temperatures and even freezing temperatures, and we get 41 degrees here in Melbourne. Perhaps

Today Very coherent MJO Phase 2 signature in the Indian Ocean Composite and next few days 500hPa mean anomaly Week 1 very coherent MJO Phase 3 Allied to the GWO composite for phase 2 (low angular momentum) Sound support for the mean trough to edge over / closer to the UK. Week 2 continues to progress as a Phase 4/5 MJO evolution. Composites: But, the nuances of the GWO may well kick in if we get angular momentum on the rise,. Composites for phases 4 and 8 are relevant and very different to the MJO (as are the composites filtered for weak / east based La Ninas). Additionally, the MJO composites may also contain El Nino years which would bias the outcome. So two different takes on where week 2 and 3 might be heading. I would hedge to the weak La Nina being a crucial thing here, in which case your GWO composites are the ones to follow in the very extended period, January 20th onwards - but crucial here to monitor for signs of not just the MJO being the only show in town.

Despite the huge recent changes in the models my post above from NYE still stands. Still unconvinced we have seen the last of the changes around the +168 mark especially when viewing the UKMO. However even if the ECM/GFS/GEM are right a cold, zonal spell looks on the cards as I mention above.

Im going to have to disagree with virtually everything said on here. I think the best way of illustrating what I think is going to happen for the period between 15th Jan and beyond is by simply drawing the charts I feel will become the reality. Shall post these in around 1hr.

And the progression sharpens.. Scandi heights are eyeing to shake hands with those at the pole... We get a small tweak and expansion each run now and the block tightens. This with italian/lows merging shutting off the heights...and the rush north deepens..... Crucial point ;.. Is exactly how the base-euro lows play to put the squeeze in.. Then we eye developments.. The ecm will be of interest in these portions... Some big positives...flagging.

There are a number of developing dynamics that are shouting a quick change in modeling. Some very interesting synoptics rearing. Going to await 12z suites before further divulge/analysis. I look forwards to your own analysis teits. See you all for 12z...

If folk ‘believe’ the ECM now as they ‘believed’ it the other day....how come it is now suddenly incredibly accurate? Plenty of running in this....but this isn’t the main course. The Atlantic will win out.....later....but what will that bring? Lots more changing around ahead, ECM way too quick imo. No beast but no 2 day collapse either BFTP

Where do you start??? GFS said no,no and no again. EC said yes , yes and yes again, and now says, well, no. UKMO said yes, then no. And now GFS says yes. There has been some fabulous posts over the last few days, really enjoyable reading.Im sorry if i upset anyone with my dry humour, it was not intended. Who knows what tomorrow will bring but i am ABSOLUTELY not going to comment on any output as to be frank, i have no idea which model has the best handle on this now. It would be amazing if we saw big upgrades tomorrow - but i think im that exhausted with it all i don't think i would have either the enthusiasm or belief to ramp, possibly ever again in my whole life. So, with that in mind i think i will silently cheer on from the sidelines any model promoting cold outcomes. Fingers crossed guys.

Rather disappointed to see the slaying that Siberian icy blast took from a member this morning he actually is a well informed young man who knows a lot when it comes to model analysis. Me an older foggie is constantly amazed at the knee jerk reaction to day to day model changes , my time analysing both professional and other wise teaches me to look learn and listen ..... sorry just needed to get that off my chest ?

Just looking back at the past two days eps mean heights comparing day 14 to 12 all the way down to 8 and 6 - looking at the scandi ridge and it is more defined, sharper and further north all the way down. Day 14 which hardly had any ridge now shows one etc etc Basically, writing off this upper ridge could be a mistake and given that we know the Atlantic is going to come barrelling in, we could see some very interesting week two charts over the next week.

Stating the obvious i guess but any Atlantic progress this coming week doesn't look clear cut. The Azores high has a role in developments as it has another go at ridging around day 7 which could re-enforce the heights ridging up to Scandinavia. To show what i mean we can see something along these lines in the last 2 frames of the UK model At t120 the trough is into the west but 24hrs later starts to weaken with ridging from the Azores high starting to show. Another way to see this perhaps is the ecm mean at t120 then at t168 By day 7(t168) the trough has shrank back because of the azores high. It can be seen from the ecm clusters for day 7 how unconvincing Atlantic progress looks Looking ahead on those eps clusters and the outlook is even more uncertain.There are 5 clusters on some days with the Atlantic trough heading se and the height anomalies to the ne still showing dancing around each other with the Uk very much centre stage..You would think looking at the later ens. means that the Atlantic will eventually win but i think developments for the end of next week -days 6-8 are still liable to change because of this uncertainty. Not sure i want this stalemate to last too long as really it's not great for widespread cold and snow but it shows that analysing mid-term modeling is more tricky than normal at the moment.

have you got posters of certain members on your bedroom wall or something Shaky?....calm down old bean, or you'll do yourself a mischief!....lol the overnight runs show a chilly few days are in the offing with a few showers particularly from NE & eastern regions with a weakening band of wintry mix guff petering out as it moves south tomorrow....but apart from that relatively settled until midweek.......a bit IMBY, but after the huge amount of rain we've had the past 2 weeks here, I'll take that....after wednesday?....who knows, it's all a bit up in the air (no pun intented)

I can assure yourself if as modeled that flow takes a-hold you can expect a dip below -8 hpa as the jet dives and that stagnant US- FREEZER , air begin to awash eastward. Again a very unusual situ unfolding ..

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se. Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle. It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

In that case....

Can see the route to a boom moment from here...troughing detaches from parent vortex, heads SE allowing HP to extend up through Greenland and connecting to that HP around the N Pole from the better WAA earlier on in the run Plenty of possibilities as we progress further into January...this E'ly fiasco was the elephant in the room, a red herring you may say.

Right. I am taking a break from here. If for nothing else other than my sanity. (Watch the models now flip to snowmageddon) I love this forum and I am in awe of some of the people in here with their vast knowledge of the weather and some of the posts this season have just been amazing. Thanks for the ride, everyone! See you all soon

One of very few times i'll say.. Loving the jet rage... As it surges the fridged cold out of seaboard usa.. Again the atlantic drops the density of cold but is sufficient for notable incursion +its looks that we will be on the correct side of the line. I think we can now look to the unlikely source of the n-w rather than eastern side .. And the snow event chances will begin to mount as the conveyor of pm air gets running... Very unusual...but i think we'll take it. And the north western source is of far better, cold exaction than our scandinavian/russian format.

The darkest hour is just before the dawn. ECM has gone from hero to zero but as others have pointed out, this mornings run looks very suspect. Given the Op has been bouncing around from one extreme to the other it is probably better to stick with ensemble guidance and any consistency within UKMO, GFS Ops for now to determine where we may be heading. The teased Easterly of a couple of days ago has clearly failed but post day 6 still holds possibilities. We should have some form of Scandi blocking reaching NW toward Greenland, too far East to bring cold to us but if upsteam plays ball it is a good building block. It is all about the distribution of energy coming in off the Atlantic from day 7+ and the same old theme, if it goes NE the pattern flattens out and the Atlantic roars in, if it splits favourable or undercuts then it is game on. I would actually be surprised if another Easterly does not get modelled by GEM/ECM over the next few days for mid month or just after. This could be a long Winter, buckle up and strap in for the next crazy rollercoaster - I feel pretty confident it is coming.

Which ECM and GEM are you talking about Steve? This ECM Or this GEM ?? The initial easterly (post this weekend) that you were chasing is goosed. Simple as. No amount of plucking GEFS ensembles out of thin air will change that.

Folks, I feel I’ve walked into a banter thread. Oh, wait it’s not! I know it’s January and everyone is back to work and sad and looking for the next cold spell, but PLEASE can we keep this to model discussion, there’s at least 15 posts I’m about to move/delete and sorry in advance but I’m probably not going to PM every single one of you to say sorry and give a justification because it’s Friday night and I’m tired. its been a really long week for model watching, and I think the unusual setups are cause for really great conversations. I kind of feel we all need to get up off the floor and just get over the ECM failure. Let’s move on. and be nice.

Oh dear! If charts like this start to appear on a regular basis, there'll be no need for nail clippers!

You don't have a choice in the matter, the weather will do what the weather will do

Spoke to them this morning. There short term range of charts had a low forming off the SW of England by Thursday and temperature profile was below the anomaly average for much of the British Isles. Will get another update from the shift forecaster ( she) who speaks good English and get more thoughts on there longer term prognosis and snow model results, which by the way have produced some remarkable accurate results for the resort yesterday. C

Morning all, not to be to down beat for cold lover. Still some interest shown by our forecast providers. Their short range charts still develop a low to the SW of England by next Thursday that may hold a cold flow for your part of the continent. More later. C

The real angst is because the wondrous synoptics were 72-96 hours away and, quote, 'a dead cert.' That's the real issue: that models of some esteem can be so massively wrong at such short range. Whilst others may pick away at the GFS on the fundamental point about the position of the Scandi high it got it right. And that's why it was on the right track when all others lost it: the difference between a split jet powering south which opened the floodgates on the alleged easterly (GEM, ECM and to an extent UKMO) and a sinking Scandi high that returned us eventually to zonal rubbish (GFS). The real lesson here is that we have to avoid wishcasting. Actually, I'd put it more simply than that. Unless the GFS comes on board any cold scenarios might as well be the product of my son's primary school drawing class.

The wildly different Op runs is making me sceptical of any output at the moment as none of them agree. The UKMO remains the pick of the bunch though. Think I shall just sit back and watch this unfold rather than commenting on each run until we get some order amongst the chaos!

Absolutely dreadful. It's a reminder that even though it's the best performing model, it is still capable of getting things very wrong.

And 2 days ago. Look at that!

ECM op 0z run has gone from that 3 days ago to this now at the same time frame. A 1035mb high cell around Iceland to a 975mb low southwest of Iceland, It maybe just the op run but its almost embarrasing.

If ecm is anywhere near the mark this morning, it has been one of the worst weeks performances for it's op runs ever.

Today sees a complex area of low pressure cover the UK and eastern Atlantic with lows over Ireland and the North Sea and a front moving south over Scotland thus some rain and snow on the high ground whilst further south the odd heavy rain shower. Further to the west in the Atlantic the high pressure is ridging north, then north east,whilst a low forms between Greenland and Iceland. By midday tomorrow the pattern change is well under way with the ridge progressing south towards Scotland thus also pushing the upper tough south into western Europe. This initiates a much colder north easterly surface wind over of the UK This process is facilitated by the aforementioned Greenland/Iceland low tracking east with the associated front marking the boundary between the much colder air to the north. Max temps 5-6C in England and Wales but 2-3C further north and quite breezy in the south. Over the next 24 hours the high cell continues to slip south over Scotland but at the same time it's starting to adjust to a more NW/SE orientation. This process completely alters the airflow over the UK, cutting off the north easterly and initiating quite a strong easterly in the south which is being squeezed by the low pressure over Spain. Indeed the airmass in the far south of England could well be sourced in north Africa. As can also be seen the Iceland low is now tracking across Scandinavia taking the front and cold air boundary with it. Max temps on Sunday around the 4-6C apart from northern Scotland where they might struggle to get above 2C. The coal face awaits but that's for another day

i always use the Velux model. it has 100% verification stats.