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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/01/18 in all areas

  1. 48 points
    Here are my rather crude drawings. Forgive me but I suffer from dreadful shaking in my hands. These charts are for the period between 13th -15th Jan in my opinion.
  2. 37 points
    If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother. Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!
  3. 20 points
    Hello I'm the ECM. On Wednesday I promised you a two week holiday travelling on first class to New York. On Thursday I promised you just a week in Paris. On Friday I cancelled your holiday. Which sums up the descent of the ECM to some dire looking output for coldies bar the last frame tease! Of course now that the ECM has by far the worst looking output it will probably be right! By T96hrs you knew it was a horror show with it being much more progressive than the rest, having said that theres a large spread in the ensembles in some key areas shown by the ECM spreads. I fear the worst because the ECM has form here, dropping the coldest solution and then kicking coldies when they're down. Tonight we'll see whether the ECM is correct, given the timeframes thankfully the drama should end by this evening!
  4. 16 points
    Morning. The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow. This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.
  5. 16 points
    Apologies if that came off like that, TEITS. Was genuinely excited to see what was coming. I love it when old hands ( I mean that affectionately!) like yourself puts pen to paper to show us your thoughts.
  6. 16 points
    There's no point sugar coating any of the output this morning, although UKMO and GFS prolong the undercut of the block over NE Europe, the block is too far east to advect any decent cold our way to interact with Atlantic frontal systems and bring snow away from hills, more likely source for any snowfall would come from Polar maritime flow from the NW. The EPS and GEFS point to an extension / lobe of tropospheric PV over N Canada have increasing influence again on the weather over NW Europe, i.e. +NAO signal and this has been showing in the ENS for a while, despite what the now ridiculed EC op has shown earlier in the week. Looking longer term, +EPO signal showing for a while in the ENS with low pressure/troughing over NE Pacific replacing the -EPO ridge that was a familiar feature through December, so the upper flow flattening out across N America, with deep cold over mid-west and Ern U.S. retreating back to Canada with time and the flow flatter over the N Atlantic as a result. 10-15 day mean 500mb heights from both GEFS and EPS indicate low heights anomaly over UK/Ireland - which indicates low pressure systems a plenty crossing the UK, but could contain some cold Pm shots, best we can hope for until the pattern changes. The MJO is headed through the 'warmer phases' in next few weeks, i.e. the wave is too far west (Indian Ocean) to have an effect on providing poleward upper divergence and effect changes in upper flow over N Pacific, so the flow will remain zonal across the N PAC, N America and N Atlantic. However, the EC weeklies out last night did show a return of the -EPO later this month and we may see the MJO orbit back into colder phases later this month too. But for now, think I will have a break from analysing the models in any great depth for cold and do more constructive things with my time, obviously keeping an eye on them, because I don't think the block over NE Europe will have much influence before it fades, more the Atlantic will. Hard to swallow, but that's life being at the windward end of a large ocean. Its seems that recent years (post 2011) that unless you live on the eastern side of the large continental landmasses of the Northern Hemisphere, being N America and Eurasia, the moderating effects of the warm oceans and the anomalously warm arctic will keep the cold away.
  7. 15 points
    I am not too sure, if a Phase 8/1 MJO signal is possible. You might notice that the last two MJO cycles have shown a significant weakening around Phase 8. That is because of the underlying Niña state. The Niña Easterlies will compete with the MJO westerlies. The Niño regions are within Phase 7/8, so that is where the strongest Niña Easterlies are. The MJO signal will be beaten by the Niña Easterlies, which is shown in the data. So a prolonged Phase 7/8/1 event is probably not going to happen IMO anyway. But this has an effect on the AAM. And after some helpful PMs and subsequent reading of studies and other online material, I have come up with this forecast. Currently we have a -MT and -FT phase. When the MJO (Westerlies) comes into interaction with the Niña Easterlies, it will cause positive frictional torque. +FT moves the GWO to Phase 3/4. The torque propragtes into the mid latitudes, and helps a +MT pattern to develop. This causes a proper GWO Phase 4, at the height of the MJO Phase 6/7. When the MJO signal weakens at the hands of Niña, the +FT will be lost, and the GWO will start to move towards Phases 8/1. Then the MT will go negative a few days after, and then the GWO Phase 1 takes hold. The MJO is linked to the AAM in this instance. Monthly models such as the EC Monthly and POAMA, show the MJO moving towards Phases 6/7 later this month, so this will be when these events occur. In the meantime, the negative AAM tendency will continue, and maybe the AAM will follow GEFS for once. Just think about that! Anyway.... the MJO moves through IO, and towards Maritime Continent. You guys in England get single digit temperatures and even freezing temperatures, and we get 41 degrees here in Melbourne. Perhaps
  8. 15 points
  9. 14 points
    Today Very coherent MJO Phase 2 signature in the Indian Ocean Composite and next few days 500hPa mean anomaly Week 1 very coherent MJO Phase 3 Allied to the GWO composite for phase 2 (low angular momentum) Sound support for the mean trough to edge over / closer to the UK. Week 2 continues to progress as a Phase 4/5 MJO evolution. Composites: But, the nuances of the GWO may well kick in if we get angular momentum on the rise,. Composites for phases 4 and 8 are relevant and very different to the MJO (as are the composites filtered for weak / east based La Ninas). Additionally, the MJO composites may also contain El Nino years which would bias the outcome. So two different takes on where week 2 and 3 might be heading. I would hedge to the weak La Nina being a crucial thing here, in which case your GWO composites are the ones to follow in the very extended period, January 20th onwards - but crucial here to monitor for signs of not just the MJO being the only show in town.
  10. 13 points
    Im going to have to disagree with virtually everything said on here. I think the best way of illustrating what I think is going to happen for the period between 15th Jan and beyond is by simply drawing the charts I feel will become the reality. Shall post these in around 1hr.
  11. 12 points
    There are a number of developing dynamics that are shouting a quick change in modeling. Some very interesting synoptics rearing. Going to await 12z suites before further divulge/analysis. I look forwards to your own analysis teits. See you all for 12z...
  12. 12 points
    If folk ‘believe’ the ECM now as they ‘believed’ it the other day....how come it is now suddenly incredibly accurate? Plenty of running in this....but this isn’t the main course. The Atlantic will win out.....later....but what will that bring? Lots more changing around ahead, ECM way too quick imo. No beast but no 2 day collapse either BFTP
  13. 12 points
    Where do you start??? GFS said no,no and no again. EC said yes , yes and yes again, and now says, well, no. UKMO said yes, then no. And now GFS says yes. There has been some fabulous posts over the last few days, really enjoyable reading.Im sorry if i upset anyone with my dry humour, it was not intended. Who knows what tomorrow will bring but i am ABSOLUTELY not going to comment on any output as to be frank, i have no idea which model has the best handle on this now. It would be amazing if we saw big upgrades tomorrow - but i think im that exhausted with it all i don't think i would have either the enthusiasm or belief to ramp, possibly ever again in my whole life. So, with that in mind i think i will silently cheer on from the sidelines any model promoting cold outcomes. Fingers crossed guys.
  14. 12 points
    Rather disappointed to see the slaying that Siberian icy blast took from a member this morning he actually is a well informed young man who knows a lot when it comes to model analysis. Me an older foggie is constantly amazed at the knee jerk reaction to day to day model changes , my time analysing both professional and other wise teaches me to look learn and listen ..... sorry just needed to get that off my chest 🧐
  15. 11 points
    Stating the obvious i guess but any Atlantic progress this coming week doesn't look clear cut. The Azores high has a role in developments as it has another go at ridging around day 7 which could re-enforce the heights ridging up to Scandinavia. To show what i mean we can see something along these lines in the last 2 frames of the UK model At t120 the trough is into the west but 24hrs later starts to weaken with ridging from the Azores high starting to show. Another way to see this perhaps is the ecm mean at t120 then at t168 By day 7(t168) the trough has shrank back because of the azores high. It can be seen from the ecm clusters for day 7 how unconvincing Atlantic progress looks Looking ahead on those eps clusters and the outlook is even more uncertain.There are 5 clusters on some days with the Atlantic trough heading se and the height anomalies to the ne still showing dancing around each other with the Uk very much centre stage..You would think looking at the later ens. means that the Atlantic will eventually win but i think developments for the end of next week -days 6-8 are still liable to change because of this uncertainty. Not sure i want this stalemate to last too long as really it's not great for widespread cold and snow but it shows that analysing mid-term modeling is more tricky than normal at the moment.
  16. 11 points
    have you got posters of certain members on your bedroom wall or something Shaky?....calm down old bean, or you'll do yourself a mischief!....lol the overnight runs show a chilly few days are in the offing with a few showers particularly from NE & eastern regions with a weakening band of wintry mix guff petering out as it moves south tomorrow....but apart from that relatively settled until midweek.......a bit IMBY, but after the huge amount of rain we've had the past 2 weeks here, I'll take that....after wednesday?....who knows, it's all a bit up in the air (no pun intented)
  17. 10 points
    Right. I am taking a break from here. If for nothing else other than my sanity. (Watch the models now flip to snowmageddon) I love this forum and I am in awe of some of the people in here with their vast knowledge of the weather and some of the posts this season have just been amazing. Thanks for the ride, everyone! See you all soon
  18. 9 points
    Which ECM and GEM are you talking about Steve? This ECM Or this GEM ?? The initial easterly (post this weekend) that you were chasing is goosed. Simple as. No amount of plucking GEFS ensembles out of thin air will change that.
  19. 8 points
    Spoke to them this morning. There short term range of charts had a low forming off the SW of England by Thursday and temperature profile was below the anomaly average for much of the British Isles. Will get another update from the shift forecaster ( she) who speaks good English and get more thoughts on there longer term prognosis and snow model results, which by the way have produced some remarkable accurate results for the resort yesterday. C
  20. 8 points
    Morning all, not to be to down beat for cold lover. Still some interest shown by our forecast providers. Their short range charts still develop a low to the SW of England by next Thursday that may hold a cold flow for your part of the continent. More later. C
  21. 8 points
    The real angst is because the wondrous synoptics were 72-96 hours away and, quote, 'a dead cert.' That's the real issue: that models of some esteem can be so massively wrong at such short range. Whilst others may pick away at the GFS on the fundamental point about the position of the Scandi high it got it right. And that's why it was on the right track when all others lost it: the difference between a split jet powering south which opened the floodgates on the alleged easterly (GEM, ECM and to an extent UKMO) and a sinking Scandi high that returned us eventually to zonal rubbish (GFS). The real lesson here is that we have to avoid wishcasting. Actually, I'd put it more simply than that. Unless the GFS comes on board any cold scenarios might as well be the product of my son's primary school drawing class.
  22. 8 points
    The wildly different Op runs is making me sceptical of any output at the moment as none of them agree. The UKMO remains the pick of the bunch though. Think I shall just sit back and watch this unfold rather than commenting on each run until we get some order amongst the chaos!
  23. 7 points
    I don't think anything was meant TEITS mate. Here is a link to British snowfalls.It you can be bothered check out how many "MID JAN" events there have been even in average winters.....enjoy folks http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html
  24. 7 points
    Arpege model showing some enjoyable 'seasonal' weather to be had from the upcoming settled spell, with a couple of predominantly sunny days and overnight frosts away from eastern and southern coasts. After the excesses of the holiday period, some lovely weather for a brisk walk in the country! Nebulosite (cloudiness: black is clear sky) for Sun 7th 16.00 and Mon 8th 16.00: Temperature Mon 8th 06.00:
  25. 7 points
    Absolutely dreadful. It's a reminder that even though it's the best performing model, it is still capable of getting things very wrong.
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