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Showing most liked content on 05/01/18 in all areas

  1. 7 likes
    Claptrap MOGREPS too, they were in 95% agreement at one point for an East/SE’ly around mid next week!!
  2. 7 likes
  3. 7 likes
    ECM op 0z run has gone from that 3 days ago to this now at the same time frame. A 1035mb high cell around Iceland to a 975mb low southwest of Iceland, It maybe just the op run but its almost embarrasing.
  4. 5 likes
  5. 5 likes
    (I've just posted this in the Short Range Model thread - but very relevant for our Region).... Arpege model showing some enjoyable 'seasonal' weather to be had from the upcoming settled spell, with a couple of predominantly sunny days and overnight frosts away from eastern and southern coasts. After the excesses of the holiday period, some lovely weather for a brisk walk in the country! Nebulosite (cloudiness: black is clear sky) for Sun 7th 16.00 and Mon 8th 16.00: Temperature Mon 8th 06.00: On a lighter note, I adored this video clip of a dog enjoying some tobogganing. My two dogs love snow, they run around the garden like lunatics, clearly excited by the wonderful white stuff to play in!!
  6. 5 likes
    Really? Where? Unless you mean a bit of frost and a cold wind.
  7. 4 likes
    This morning's GFS06Z looks quite interesting, not in that there's any sign of a raging 1987esque Beast from The East - because clearly there isn't! - but in that we spend almost the entire run on the cold side of the 0C 850hPa isotherm...And, as we all know, snow events can and do happen with Uppers of around only -3C/-4C?? So, IMHO, all is far from lost!
  8. 4 likes
    Morning all Oh dear, it's all doom and gloom here this morning, isn't it ? We aren't even half way through winter and you'd think we'll never see a frost let alone a flake of snow again. It's not a question of "learning lessons" and being all "I'm not believing it until every model agrees at T+3" - fine, but it'll be a grumpy old place if we all thought like that. It's chaotic science at best looking 6-10 days out - the Ens are helpful because there are more attempts to get it right - think infinite number of monkeys and Hamlet. Anyway, before the Mods throw me off for hesitation, obfuscation and obstruction, my take on where we are this morning looking forward: ECM goes for a full Atlantic breakthrough and a serious old storm at T+240 but we can probably ignore that. Neither GFS 00Z OP nor GEM bring the Atlantic through in strength and indeed the HP rallies later next week so could be quite a quiet, chilly spell for southern and eastern parts in particular. The other observation is the continued negative tilt in the trough going forward so it's less a case of positive tilt and blowtorch SW'lies than back to square one with the jet running over or just to the south so while I wouldn't call it "cold zonality", the periods of PM air are and would be noticeable but not what most want. UKMO at T+144 looks worrying as the Azores HP is coming in and the trough is tilting positive but we'll see and I also note the GFS 00Z OP scrubs the PV out of NE Canada by the end of FI and I wonder if that could be the next direction of travel in 10-14 days or so. Until then, after our brief flirtation with something colder and drier we have to accept that in the words of the song "all we can do is just sit and wait". There's plenty to look at and the medium term is far from resolved this morning.
  9. 4 likes
    O no the Extended EPS have changed again, is almost like they change day to day like all the other extended models and ensembles forecast.,
  10. 4 likes
    I think people's issue with the ecm is not the lack of cold uppers it was showing. That was very apparent to most. The issue is the performance of consecutive ops and the synoptics they were showing. The ops are supposed to be higher resolution when compared to the ensembles. The ecm ops have been woeful this week and there have been similar bad episodes from the ecm over the last few years.
  11. 3 likes
    Naughty ECM, go and stand in the corner
  12. 3 likes
    Flash Gordon is hanging on by his finger tips and hasn't been thrown off the ledge yet! Just enough mileage left in the current easterly fiasco to keep us interested. The easterly non-event is likely to remain so unless theres some huge turnaround however its the jet angle into the UK that's more the issue now and whether a lobe of high pressure can hold onto the north east and help divert the jet se.
  13. 3 likes
  14. 3 likes
    I've been scratching my head why folk on here are disconnecting cold spell maybe not the deep cold yet from east with -10 uppers just yet. For now it's going turn cold from north east and as we go on there chance of snow with weather fronts coming in from south and west I say that's very encouraging .great post sleety.
  15. 3 likes
    Although of course not solving the upcoming detail of the Atlantic/block scenario the overall 500mb pattern is worth a look via last night's NOAA and this morning's GEFS and EPS anomalies as they are pretty consistent. Upstream we have the Canadian vortex, Aleutian low and high cell eastern Arctic with a weakening amplitude across North America and a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic. The key players in our neck of the woods are the negatively tilted trough associated with the Canadian vortex into the NW Atlantic and the vicinity of UK, the European high pressure ridging north and the deep trough eastern Russia associated with the second vortex lobe. Essentially how these align, and with what intensity, will dictate the speed of ingress of eastward bound systems further east across the UK. As we are all aware this what the det. runs are currently battling to resolve. Currently it looks as if the pattern will slowly nudge east with the amplitude of the ridge diminishing thus slowly allowing the Atlantic to get the upper hand. But still quite delicately poised.
  16. 3 likes
    Hey guys, i don't profess to being anywhere near as knowledgeable as many on here but i have twenty years behind me and always happy to learn more. I might add that i have probably learnt more from the many names on here from cold spells that haven't happened than the ones that have, so although i love a good snowfall i'm always just fine if it doesn't. Ok enough of that, i'm at a point now where i'm confident of a scandi high, i also know that scandi highs are beasts if they can get themselves together and until that high builds and the models start getting good data on it i'll stay of the firm belief that no model can tell us how big and what she will do. If as tonights GFS seems to think we can get the heights to stay there like a rock for a good lengthy timeframe, and thats a strong possibility, then i know it will be very hard for some of you but i'm more than happy to watch it for a week or more because i do know the longer it stays there it can move anywhere with 24 hours notice, and if by 192 it is still there it wont be exactly where the 18z says. We watch and we wait.
  17. 2 likes
    Interesting GFS 18z run so far, comparison at +144hrs Who do we trust now? GFS or ECM? not that I'm hinting of course
  18. 2 likes
    Evening all Birthday watch for me starts here: GFS 12Z OP at T+240 ECM 12Z OP at the same time: GEM 12Z OP at the same time: Quite like the model agreement and I get a chunk of polar vortex for my birthday. - let's see where this goes.
  19. 2 likes
    More baby steps than a Nursery in the other thread. Meanwhile, former fan favourite GEM is taking size 12 hobnail boots to the block. An angry mob is gathering at the Canadian embassy.
  20. 2 likes
    That's a no-brainer. The first class stamp would have the heading Brexit winner with a picture of St. George emblazoned on it. The second class stamp would bear the heading as remainer loser with a white feather on a yellow background.
  21. 2 likes
    Same report as MQ, we're on Skye and it's a classic, cold, misty, dreich Skye day. Prob head back tomo, some snow in the forecast for back home but some crisp sunshine for here, so might hang about for the blue skies over the Cuillin, canna beat it
  22. 2 likes
    Just to add, down the line when the Atlantic gets through I think we will see unusually cold uppers (for Atlantic weather) associated, something to watch for. Nick S makes a good point along with C BFTP
  23. 2 likes
    Agreed, was going to risk being ridiculed by saying the last two gfs runs have shown the vortex finally moving east into Scandinavia from Greenland allowing something more interesting to develop. We seem to be constantly craving height rises to the north east which when it does happen leaves the uk in no mans land for weeks on end, where from personal experience were better off with the opposite. Hopefully gfs has this aspect correct.
  24. 2 likes
    A few tweaks-noted..via evenings formats... So the 00z need to be checked over. Lets see where we are, while having our weetabix?!
  25. 1 like
    Yep got the ten days charts on the way again lol.
  26. 1 like
    US winter = Bone numbingly cold. UK winter = mind numbingly boring (unless wind and rain is your thing)
  27. 1 like
    watch out for a few flakes of the white stuff tomorrow
  28. 1 like
    Anyone got UKMO 168 before the 18z
  29. 1 like
    Relevant timelines to throw this in the mix also from Garfinkel In this study, we expand on these results and demonstrate a statistically significant connection between the MJO and the stratospheric polar vortex, and subsequently the tropospheric NAM, at lags exceeding a month.
  30. 1 like
    I think we have a full house on the models tonight after the ECM run....
  31. 1 like
    Hi Becca There are 3 Chase Vehicles on Tour 1 and so there will be 3 Chase Drivers. Richard who has been chasing since 2010, and also Jock a mad Australian who has been chasing for nearly 20 years. Booking flights options is probably best answered by others on here and I am sure they will post with what flights they have got. Others over the years have flown in a day earlier than the travel day and that way they get acclimatised to the Jet-Lag. The balance is sorted by the other Paul who owns Netweather (Paul Michaelwaite) so might be an idea to Email him or Personal Message him on here for that info. The actual Info packs get sent out to you about 2 weeks before you come on the trip, but again any questions on what clothes to bring etc then just ask away Cheers Paul
  32. 1 like
    Well my feet do get cold.... I'm waiting for the 240 for maybe a hint of change....
  33. 1 like
    Thanks for this. I have often wondered how snow can fall and lie on saturated ground and eventually fill in over puddles even before they turn to ice.
  34. 1 like
    That's good to hear Andy , the updates here are far better !
  35. 1 like
  36. 1 like
    Arpege ties in with carinthians thoughts!!looks better than gfs and ukmo at 114 hours with a nice string block over scandinavia and trough desruption south west of the uk!!
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    Yes the colder air is not that relevant but the flow & alligment is important -
  39. 1 like
    Not sure why this is so amusing @abbie123??
  40. 1 like
    Two things strike me about this forecast. 1. when read in conjunction with the 10 day forecast tat precedes this one it is appears,to me eyes anyway, a classic blocking high to the North East with a slow breakdown from the west. 2. how different it is to the one at the top of the page which talks of "average" temps. I'm assuming that the text forecasts reflect Exeter's considered thoughts as opposed to just reflecting models in which case things could become very interesting
  41. 1 like
    It's true Mushy that the majority of people do not believe this now and even at the time of the referendum it only needed just a few, two in one hundred, to believe it, to fractionally change the result in favour of remain and that is well on the cards.
  42. 1 like
    GFS now has what I've been asking for! A shortwave going under the high heading west.
  43. 1 like
    48 to 78 hr easterly well what complete climb down ECM and gem. Ukmo is definitely the model I will be watching more closely from now on. I've definitely learned a massive lesson. In 2009 before the famous cold spell it was the Azores that built into the mid Atlantic and started a chain of events, This has been an extremely rare feature since. The models show now worse than ever charts. But fingers crossed for a real pattern change around mid month maybe were get lucky in February maybe start of march. But seriously seriously deflated.
  44. 1 like
    The operational is the free teaser, they want you to pay for the full package
  45. 1 like
    Yes but easy to forget that for our neck of the woods if we were a dice 1-5 would be mild and 6 would be cold so always more chance of calling mild correct, synoptics would quite likely look different at t0 to whenever the model's' called it
  46. 1 like
    I've seen more pleasant things floating down a sewer than that excuse for a man. He should never be allowed never any form of political platform again.
  47. 1 like
    I'd say you are one of the more "balanced posters" the bickering and point scoring sadly does nothing for this (otherwise) brilliant forum. Each has something to bring to the table. Old, young, novice, learned. Keep posting!
  48. 1 like
    I'm sure I've heard it's got the best verification stats of all the models....... Anywhoo, the Control is absolutely on the same page as the Op. Op at 144 Control at 144 'IF' we get a day of upgrades tomorrow, this site will be buzzing again. If not, at least it's Friday!
  49. 1 like
    I'm on T4 too this year and can't wait! 2nd time doing this. First time on T4 so I thought I'd fly out to Oklahoma the week before (perhaps on the Thurs) and take a road trip along part of Route 66, visit a few of the small towns in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and then head up to Denver. Need to get planning
  50. 1 like
    Too true! Is there anything this moribund government can be proud of? Pushing a million sick and disabled folks onto zero-hours contracts certainly wouldn't reach my 'reasons to be proud' criteria!
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