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Showing content with the highest reputation on 27/12/17 in all areas

  1. 25 points
    I’ve been following this forum as a lurker for about 9 years and I am feeling compelled to post for the first time ever. Looking at the models, and following many of the very informed contributors on here in the last week or so I made a huge call. My friends 6 year old daughter’s father died a couple of months back, and she asked me if it snow over the Xmas period for her dad. Thanks to you guys and your very informative posts on the models, in conjunction with those who specialise in the longer range teleconnections, on Saturday when she made her wish, I was able to make a prediction for snow tonight or tomorrow. It delivered tonight. I woke her up and took her into the garden to see it. Needless to say it was a very special moment for her, her mother, and me as well and I want you to share that with me. This moment was a direct result of the effort you guys put into educating us mere mortals on the subject of meteorology. When I feel my knowledge is at an appropriate level I look forward to contributing further..... Apologies to the mods if you feel this is off topic but I thought it would be something worth sharing.......
  2. 22 points
    Morning all - I watched snow fall at 2am here which gave me a slight fuzzy feeling.... though none of it stuck. On the model watching front - a model of a different kind. The SOI - Southern Oscillation Index. For those that dont know it measures the relative pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and is a measurement usually of the strength of Nino or Nina. Values over +7 are reckoned to symbolise an active Nina phase and values below -7 an active Nino phase. I'm puzzled by the values we are seeing. Index for December here: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ According to this data we have been seeing a Nino style setup in the pressure relationship since December 11 after a spell of much more predictable Nina values. Both October and November averaged +10, which given our Nina profile is not surprising. So why have we had 2 weeks of Nino values in December? Somewhere there is clearly some "noise" affecting the expected pattern. Anyone got any ideas? Latest Schiraldi plots with the handy ability to jump back up to 5 days to compare runs show that, once again, we have models failing to spot the correct GWO progression. Is this linked to the strange SOI values? Is there more energy lurking in the pacific than the swift decline of the MJO a week or so ago suggested? By hook or by crook there is a drive back across to a low amplitude phase 3 and MJO forecasts in general are not holding it in the "circle of death" for long... which is a change from a few days ago Overall conclusion? SOI index suggesting Nino-style forcing... added to Schiraldi plots pushing towards phase 3 rather than 1/2.... plus MJO re-emerging with some amplitude... added to the 23rd Dec graph from WDT on the 23rd showing frictional torques rising again (with MT expected to follow...) = a sense that the zonal spell may not last too much longer than the 2 week period I alluded to a few days ago. Back then 7th Jan was an easy time zone for minimum length of atlantic westerlies, and in my mind it could have run 1/2 weeks beyond this. However I think the timeline can be brought forward if this current data trend holds up. I think tentatively we can hope for a change of outlook by mid-Jan - at least in terms of some much better looking NWP output as we move towards Jan 15. Just to be clear on what I mean by "better looking output" - my cards are firmly on the table. I am always looking for a high lat block - either over Greeny or Scandy. This is my definition of a setup for cold winter weather. Polar NW airstreams are quite possible in a zonal setup (eg last night and today) - worth being clear as to what benchmark we are actually using for forecasting success. Overall therefore feeling a bit more optimistic this morning.
  3. 15 points
    Thnx - I thought it was all the missing data from Xmas that they had to incorporate .................
  4. 13 points
    Morning all, hope you all had a good Christmas. Snowing here in south London as I type, only a few days late, but my son getting excited. Someone's broken the ECM this morning but hopefully it'll appear later, but looking at GFS, seems little has changed in the broadscale pattern ahead since I last posted before Christmas. With no sign of deep low heights to the N and NW shifting we will continue to see a strong and zonal jet stream over the UK, bringing a conveyor of depressions off the Atlantic. However, although the jet will be over or near the UK, it will drift north and south and back north at times, with parts or all of the UK alternating between cold zonality when on the poleward side of the jet, bringing some marginal threat of snow at times, perhaps like today. But we will inevitably end of up the milder equator side of the jet, for a few days, with lows tracking close to Scotland rather than across the south. So it could be worse IMO, as I guess it's better to have east to west alignment of the jet rather than SW-NE, as albeit zonal, as when the jet does drift south it brings air cold enough at time to bring snow, even in the south. Fortunately there are no signs of protracted height rises building east across mainland Europe, in fact the GEFS suggests a EURO trough in the means days 10-15 A look at the 5 day average, although turning milder in the 5-10 period across the south GEFS suggests slight below average for all in the 10-15 day period as the Euro trough carves out and the flow is from the NW in the means, the means perhaps concealing the odd brief northerly: So although the pattern ahead is not ideal for protracted and deep cold and worries over marginality when there's a snow signal, at least we do have cold enough air at times for some snow events, my glass half full today.
  5. 12 points
    Whoops I thought it had a familiar feel. I could have just reposted last night's post. Get a grip - must do better knocker
  6. 11 points
    Much better output than when I last checked. Looking at the ensembles the mean hovers between -3C to -5C as we head into the New Year. So no sign of deep, prolonged cold and powder snow. However enough interest for most on here as these temps might be cold enough for future snow events.
  7. 10 points
    The 3 anomaly charts I have available below. Make of them what you wish. To me, overall, they suggest a 500mb flow from a mainly westerly direction. No sign of really mild air nor any sign of any deep protracted cold developing. Much as now perhaps, some milder days interspersed with 24-58 hours of possible snow events as the air does not need much cooling in the general predicted pattern? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php As to what happens post day 14, don't ask me, I do not pretend to have enough knowledge for much beyond 2 weeks or so. Current ideas, as I see them, have no major suggestion of deep cold developing and lasting but who knows really?
  8. 9 points
    Mmm I suggested yesterday perhaps cold zonal rather than mild zonal, models this morning flipping more towards a colder unsettled outlook - well average at least, with alternations of the UK being on the cold and warm side of the jet, the north remaining on the colder side for longer, and there is an increasing signal for secondary low depressions being spawn from the main parent trough, allowing waves to form on any fronts and troughs, wrap around features, small disturbances in uppers always hovering on the boundary of snow to rain - so an interesting quite problematic synoptical set up for the weather forecasters, lots going on in short-term timeframes making 5/6 day forecasts a headache with much room for margins of error. Looking at the short-range, Friday could bring some disruptive snow to quite low levels in the north, with a wave forming and colder air over Scotland not budging, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the feature track further south, enabling greater chance of snow for the north. Weekend looks very unsettled, milder away from Scotland, New Years Day though a bit off could bring some wintry showers to northern parts as well, in a cold NW flow. Longer term - westerly/north westerly airstream, polar maritime/returning polar maritime dominating rather than tropical maritime... I'm teasing but shades of Jan 1984 perhaps eventually? Oh dear said it now..
  9. 8 points
    And still heaving it down here in Quedgeley south of Gloucester. Looks like a lot more to come as we appear to be in the swivel area Heaviest since Dec 2010 I reckon Happy Days ! John
  10. 7 points
    It's been snowing since I got up, here's a pic or two, hangover from hell, off to melt in to the couch and drown in irn bru
  11. 7 points
    Meanwhile. Just some light-hearted fun. Want a snow fix?
  12. 7 points
    Looks like Russian riding out east could help sharpen any future Euro trough. Helping to veer the flow to a colder nw or even n at times over the UK. Future cold possibilities are there in that set up for sure.
  13. 7 points
  14. 7 points
    Today any rain sleet and snow still around wil clear the south east leaving the whole country in a colder N/NW airstrean with wintry showers in the north and west with strong winds along the coast, possible gale force. Overnight the winds will slacken a tad but still fresh around the coast with showers but elsewhere clear and thus quite a severe frost. Tomorrow a cold day with still the odd shower but a front will approach the south west later bringing patchy rain with perhaps snow on the high ground. Friday sees the aforementioned front tracking slowly north east whilst a wave that has formed on it slips across the Midlands 981mb at 1200. the combination of this could produce snow on the leading edge of the front particularly on the higher ground in the north and in Scotland. Meanwhile a low has formed off the south east coast of the US on the southern edge of the upper trough which is tracking quickly north east and 'bombing' as it goes and is in mid Atlantic 971mb at same time. It continues to move quickly north east and deepen and by 12 on Saturday is 948mb west of the Hebrides and it's associated front is clearing the UK having brought patchy rain and snow over the high ground in the north. But more importantly accompanied by strong winds with gales in the west, severe over Scotland. Apart from some strong winds the low has dragged some warmer air in and by 12 Sunday the low is over southern Norway with the UK in a strong westerly flow with temps around average and showers along western coasts. But more disturbances are en route from the eastern seaboard and one such tracks across southern England Sunday.night/Monday morning bringing rain to the south The low quickly clears and the Azores tries to ridge north east but now there is a major upper trough area to the west and north west with a sharp delineation between the cold and warm air noted by a 160 kt jet running SW-NE and by 12 Tuesday this is quite marked as weak fronts and strong winds suppress any attempts of the Azores to ridge. So 30 hours later after the passage of another low across the south with more rain the surface wind veers WNW and the colder air makes some headway with gales along western coasts and wintry showers. Best left here but just to note this looks like being a windy period with the possibility of severe gales in some places.
  15. 7 points
  16. 7 points
    There is one reason why we (I) do this......one day in our very small part of the world and even the UK ( South East ) we will experience a weather event that is beyond 'normal'. It maybe beyond normal Wind, rain, heat, cold along with Thunder Storms and Snow Fall but we will all be here, lurking and / or posting because, if we dont, we might not experience an event to share with this great community! Local Knowledge in our 'marginal' location is key! If its rain, snow or slush tomorrow lets raise a glass or two ( or several) to all that contribute on a daily basis in this thread ( Im hoping i have more time to do so now).....Legends! Im not sure what i will be eventually waking to tomorrow morning, but i know i will be waking several times during the night because i know anything can happen and how marginal things are.....its exciting......bloody weather!❤
  17. 6 points
    Yes more of a polar maritime flow, NW airstream rather than straight westerly or indeed southwesterly. As we move into January, conditions under such synoptics become less and less marginal if you want snow and cold, as the atlantic and arctic continue to cool, this is an important factor, a NW airstream packs a much more wintry punch in Jan and Feb, even March than in December.
  18. 6 points
    Close to 3 inches of snow now, although it is very wet snow type so won't be around for long
  19. 5 points
    Just goes to show that you don’t have to always go chasing the hallowed Greeny, Scandi blocks.
  20. 5 points
  21. 5 points
    Very heavy snow in Stevenage at 130m ASL. About 5cm so far
  22. 5 points
    the 00z ecm run hasnt got past day one yet knocks?
  23. 5 points
    Snowing quite heavily in Buntingford, East Hertfordshire. About 4cm so far, although it is very wet snow so don't think it will last long
  24. 4 points
    EPS are out but can only see them on meteociel so only to 240, Strong signal for Nwerly winds / potential runners etc.
  25. 4 points
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