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I’ve been following this forum as a lurker for about 9 years and I am feeling compelled to post for the first time ever. Looking at the models, and following many of the very informed contributors on here in the last week or so I made a huge call. My friends 6 year old daughter’s father died a couple of months back, and she asked me if it snow over the Xmas period for her dad. Thanks to you guys and your very informative posts on the models, in conjunction with those who specialise in the longer range teleconnections, on Saturday when she made her wish, I was able to make a prediction for snow tonight or tomorrow. It delivered tonight. I woke her up and took her into the garden to see it. Needless to say it was a very special moment for her, her mother, and me as well and I want you to share that with me. This moment was a direct result of the effort you guys put into educating us mere mortals on the subject of meteorology. When I feel my knowledge is at an appropriate level I look forward to contributing further..... Apologies to the mods if you feel this is off topic but I thought it would be something worth sharing.......

Morning all - I watched snow fall at 2am here which gave me a slight fuzzy feeling.... though none of it stuck. On the model watching front - a model of a different kind. The SOI - Southern Oscillation Index. For those that dont know it measures the relative pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and is a measurement usually of the strength of Nino or Nina. Values over +7 are reckoned to symbolise an active Nina phase and values below -7 an active Nino phase. I'm puzzled by the values we are seeing. Index for December here: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ According to this data we have been seeing a Nino style setup in the pressure relationship since December 11 after a spell of much more predictable Nina values. Both October and November averaged +10, which given our Nina profile is not surprising. So why have we had 2 weeks of Nino values in December? Somewhere there is clearly some "noise" affecting the expected pattern. Anyone got any ideas? Latest Schiraldi plots with the handy ability to jump back up to 5 days to compare runs show that, once again, we have models failing to spot the correct GWO progression. Is this linked to the strange SOI values? Is there more energy lurking in the pacific than the swift decline of the MJO a week or so ago suggested? By hook or by crook there is a drive back across to a low amplitude phase 3 and MJO forecasts in general are not holding it in the "circle of death" for long... which is a change from a few days ago Overall conclusion? SOI index suggesting Nino-style forcing... added to Schiraldi plots pushing towards phase 3 rather than 1/2.... plus MJO re-emerging with some amplitude... added to the 23rd Dec graph from WDT on the 23rd showing frictional torques rising again (with MT expected to follow...) = a sense that the zonal spell may not last too much longer than the 2 week period I alluded to a few days ago. Back then 7th Jan was an easy time zone for minimum length of atlantic westerlies, and in my mind it could have run 1/2 weeks beyond this. However I think the timeline can be brought forward if this current data trend holds up. I think tentatively we can hope for a change of outlook by mid-Jan - at least in terms of some much better looking NWP output as we move towards Jan 15. Just to be clear on what I mean by "better looking output" - my cards are firmly on the table. I am always looking for a high lat block - either over Greeny or Scandy. This is my definition of a setup for cold winter weather. Polar NW airstreams are quite possible in a zonal setup (eg last night and today) - worth being clear as to what benchmark we are actually using for forecasting success. Overall therefore feeling a bit more optimistic this morning.

Thnx - I thought it was all the missing data from Xmas that they had to incorporate .................

Whoops I thought it had a familiar feel. I could have just reposted last night's post. Get a grip - must do better knocker

Morning all, hope you all had a good Christmas. Snowing here in south London as I type, only a few days late, but my son getting excited. Someone's broken the ECM this morning but hopefully it'll appear later, but looking at GFS, seems little has changed in the broadscale pattern ahead since I last posted before Christmas. With no sign of deep low heights to the N and NW shifting we will continue to see a strong and zonal jet stream over the UK, bringing a conveyor of depressions off the Atlantic. However, although the jet will be over or near the UK, it will drift north and south and back north at times, with parts or all of the UK alternating between cold zonality when on the poleward side of the jet, bringing some marginal threat of snow at times, perhaps like today. But we will inevitably end of up the milder equator side of the jet, for a few days, with lows tracking close to Scotland rather than across the south. So it could be worse IMO, as I guess it's better to have east to west alignment of the jet rather than SW-NE, as albeit zonal, as when the jet does drift south it brings air cold enough at time to bring snow, even in the south. Fortunately there are no signs of protracted height rises building east across mainland Europe, in fact the GEFS suggests a EURO trough in the means days 10-15 A look at the 5 day average, although turning milder in the 5-10 period across the south GEFS suggests slight below average for all in the 10-15 day period as the Euro trough carves out and the flow is from the NW in the means, the means perhaps concealing the odd brief northerly: So although the pattern ahead is not ideal for protracted and deep cold and worries over marginality when there's a snow signal, at least we do have cold enough air at times for some snow events, my glass half full today.

I’m underwhelmed , three lengths clear and the ECM unseated the rider at the final hurdle . Putting aside what it did on day 9 and 10 the upstream pattern has improved and still a chance we might see a high pressure develop to the ne.

Much better output than when I last checked. Looking at the ensembles the mean hovers between -3C to -5C as we head into the New Year. So no sign of deep, prolonged cold and powder snow. However enough interest for most on here as these temps might be cold enough for future snow events.

Evening All Lets get the bad news out the way- The GFS continues to modify the deceleration of the zonal wind after New Years, the baseline on the ‘dip’ still occurs around the 6th-7th of Jan ( highlighted over the last 10 days ) & therefor would represent technically the best opportunity of some blocking around the mid latitudes.. its important to differentiate the fact that a HLB is pretty much off the table, & even now entering Jan - without an SSW the prospect / probability of HLBs is quite low ( note to all the -EPO ridge is MLB ) Also just today the GFS is not seeing any further deceleration post the 7th, replacing it with another spike of westerly zonal winds - further supporting the idea of no HLB- Where that leaves us is ‘back door cold’ - the regular polar North westerly or equally the less likely Easterly via some sort of pressure rise to the North east- The ECM is now toying with this at day 10 however the initial prognosis doesn’t give this high much depth so it could well be swept aside, however equally it could provide enough ‘steer’ to allow for some more sliders- All in all then - the background signals are poor especially given the EQBO - & we will be lucky to extract the max out of mediocre patterns delivering exciting but transient wintry patterns- 07th-8th is earmarked as our next opportunity for something significant... S

Time to recharge your batteries coldies looks like we might be on another chasing east/ne saga !

The 3 anomaly charts I have available below. Make of them what you wish. To me, overall, they suggest a 500mb flow from a mainly westerly direction. No sign of really mild air nor any sign of any deep protracted cold developing. Much as now perhaps, some milder days interspersed with 24-58 hours of possible snow events as the air does not need much cooling in the general predicted pattern? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php As to what happens post day 14, don't ask me, I do not pretend to have enough knowledge for much beyond 2 weeks or so. Current ideas, as I see them, have no major suggestion of deep cold developing and lasting but who knows really?

Mmm I suggested yesterday perhaps cold zonal rather than mild zonal, models this morning flipping more towards a colder unsettled outlook - well average at least, with alternations of the UK being on the cold and warm side of the jet, the north remaining on the colder side for longer, and there is an increasing signal for secondary low depressions being spawn from the main parent trough, allowing waves to form on any fronts and troughs, wrap around features, small disturbances in uppers always hovering on the boundary of snow to rain - so an interesting quite problematic synoptical set up for the weather forecasters, lots going on in short-term timeframes making 5/6 day forecasts a headache with much room for margins of error. Looking at the short-range, Friday could bring some disruptive snow to quite low levels in the north, with a wave forming and colder air over Scotland not budging, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the feature track further south, enabling greater chance of snow for the north. Weekend looks very unsettled, milder away from Scotland, New Years Day though a bit off could bring some wintry showers to northern parts as well, in a cold NW flow. Longer term - westerly/north westerly airstream, polar maritime/returning polar maritime dominating rather than tropical maritime... I'm teasing but shades of Jan 1984 perhaps eventually? Oh dear said it now..

Just had a glance at the gefs 2m average temperature charts for differing UK locations and this stark variation between the colder Winter climate of Aberdeenshire and the mild of Cornwall stands out quite well at the moment. Magnified with this Atlantic pattern of the jet wavering north and south over the UK.These expected readings show that the far north would be found on the north(polar)side of the jet for much of the time whereas the far south and south west experiencing mainly milder air.Many locations between seeing the day to day variations between the two under this mean westerly ridge /trough pattern.

The ECM building more amplification upstream at T168hrs. This should help drive low heights into Europe and this looks better going forward than the GFS. Nice T192 hrs from the ECM , the following could get this room buzzing if that low to the nw can clear se and detach from low heights near Greenland .

Living in Scotland at 200m asl cannot be compared with living in lowland S.E England viz. snow chances in a polar maritime flow. Marginality just doesn't cut it where I live - give me -15 uppers with a moisture laden easterly please!

A wee walk at Palacerigg yesterday. Big difference a few miles made

This is what we want to see this member in GEFS 06z. Marginality dead. Proper cold that.

And still heaving it down here in Quedgeley south of Gloucester. Looks like a lot more to come as we appear to be in the swivel area Heaviest since Dec 2010 I reckon Happy Days ! John

Yes but that’s the lower resolution part of the output and models struggle with energy distribution this far out. The GFS will always try and take too much energy east or ne. Overall not a bad trend this evening.

The South came good today

Taking gfs/ukmo/gem/jma-96hrs 12z snaps..(jma-84).. Im alarmed myself by how content ifeel will pm flow this season?!.. There is a descript' tone of a classic winter setting up now. And as some will know the american depth of cold would usualy be non-descript for increase in trigger lows on seaboard eject' firing into the pond and aligning the jet at ourselves' while inter water warmth act to assure the moblie mild/milder regime!.. But this is of big contrast this year and pm flows are of major interest-and continue to be(perhaps more as we evolve)? The northern hem-shape is prime for exating on-flow and us gaining-not only on intial bursts from the v-cold embeded shelf...but the notable eastern continental/russian-peninssula warmth...with our current nw/atlantic cool/cold and MLBS -on occasion' may have actualy done ourselves a favour in terms of mlb allowing colder than usual pm shots as the fridged cold steers into the US-and holding for the continuation, of the warmer heights to our east...thus; allowing disregard of higher lattitude block forming that on collapse...takes an waful lot longer to re-acheive. So in a nutshell keep taking these suprise pm shots with perhaps' some decent snowfalls to anywhere in the uk 'given' correcting of placements...and await what looks to be possibly building for our not so bad current situ... And yes the mjo will be a player...but all-in all....its preety promising if you take the basics into account... I have left the ecm out as a purpose..as i'd like to see the offering..as to my point making overal.... I'll flag that after 240 12z upcoming...then i think my post and its decipher may become a lot clearer!?.. Edit: The operationals have been the defining factor by a wide-mile this season... So notes taken seriously run-run now...

The GFS again showing a very mobile N/W flow with plenty waves of cold air passing over the UK bringing cool/cold sometimes wintry and windy with severe gales for some especially the North. Not looking bad at all as we head into January I don't think..

Friday looking good to me for some decent snowfall. The 12z GFS showing snow falling from early morning until evening

Had some heavier bursts too.A few photos of showers coming in off the Firth this morning. Currently 1c From the look of the 14 day outlook on here this neck of the woods should keep snow cover in sheltered areas Another point is that west wind snow is always heavier although wetter so there is the potential for some very deep accumulations in the next 14 days epecially on the hills.

It's been snowing since I got up, here's a pic or two, hangover from hell, off to melt in to the couch and drown in irn bru

Meanwhile. Just some light-hearted fun. Want a snow fix?

Some phone snaps of Carrbridge in the snaw.

Today any rain sleet and snow still around wil clear the south east leaving the whole country in a colder N/NW airstrean with wintry showers in the north and west with strong winds along the coast, possible gale force. Overnight the winds will slacken a tad but still fresh around the coast with showers but elsewhere clear and thus quite a severe frost. Tomorrow a cold day with still the odd shower but a front will approach the south west later bringing patchy rain with perhaps snow on the high ground. Friday sees the aforementioned front tracking slowly north east whilst a wave that has formed on it slips across the Midlands 981mb at 1200. the combination of this could produce snow on the leading edge of the front particularly on the higher ground in the north and in Scotland. Meanwhile a low has formed off the south east coast of the US on the southern edge of the upper trough which is tracking quickly north east and 'bombing' as it goes and is in mid Atlantic 971mb at same time. It continues to move quickly north east and deepen and by 12 on Saturday is 948mb west of the Hebrides and it's associated front is clearing the UK having brought patchy rain and snow over the high ground in the north. But more importantly accompanied by strong winds with gales in the west, severe over Scotland. Apart from some strong winds the low has dragged some warmer air in and by 12 Sunday the low is over southern Norway with the UK in a strong westerly flow with temps around average and showers along western coasts. But more disturbances are en route from the eastern seaboard and one such tracks across southern England Sunday.night/Monday morning bringing rain to the south The low quickly clears and the Azores tries to ridge north east but now there is a major upper trough area to the west and north west with a sharp delineation between the cold and warm air noted by a 160 kt jet running SW-NE and by 12 Tuesday this is quite marked as weak fronts and strong winds suppress any attempts of the Azores to ridge. So 30 hours later after the passage of another low across the south with more rain the surface wind veers WNW and the colder air makes some headway with gales along western coasts and wintry showers. Best left here but just to note this looks like being a windy period with the possibility of severe gales in some places.

THIS IS UNREAL. Snowstorm here in Kingswood, Bristol.

There is one reason why we (I) do this......one day in our very small part of the world and even the UK ( South East ) we will experience a weather event that is beyond 'normal'. It maybe beyond normal Wind, rain, heat, cold along with Thunder Storms and Snow Fall but we will all be here, lurking and / or posting because, if we dont, we might not experience an event to share with this great community! Local Knowledge in our 'marginal' location is key! If its rain, snow or slush tomorrow lets raise a glass or two ( or several) to all that contribute on a daily basis in this thread ( Im hoping i have more time to do so now).....Legends! Im not sure what i will be eventually waking to tomorrow morning, but i know i will be waking several times during the night because i know anything can happen and how marginal things are.....its exciting......bloody weather!?❤

Whilst the search for crunchy snow and ice days continues the current pattern could be a lot worse . At least the jet is tracking further south which will allow for some colder air at times . Day ten looks currently where the pattern might offer something more interesting. The Euro trough and some pull back in the PV might allow a high pressure cell to form to the ne and then it’s whether there’s enough trough disruption to the west.

Seems to me to January 5th is fast becoming an interesting date to watch. If the jet is southerly enough, and many recent GEFS runs have been showing it (even the op flirted with the notion), there will be a clear window of opportunity for an Icelandic wedge of sorts to form . From there the ramifications could get very interesting indeed.

Day 10 eps clusters and mean are not bad for a decent cold shot from the n or nw The largest cluster favouring the jet going south of the UK again with a decent euro trough-polar nw pattern.Mean uppers -2 to -5c depending on location south to north.Signs of a bit of Atlantic ridging out west so would expect quite a cold nw flow in that setup. Not the ideal pattern for coldies with a wavering rather than a meridonal jet.No +ve polar heights so transient periods of cold rather than anything more than day or 3 but as long as the Azores high stays out in the Atlantic rather than set up shop over C.Europe the jet is unlikely to tilt towards a mild sw-ne angle.

Just had a whopping great gust of wind...Damn those Brussels sprouts! And...it's almost snowing!

Looks like Russian riding out east could help sharpen any future Euro trough. Helping to veer the flow to a colder nw or even n at times over the UK. Future cold possibilities are there in that set up for sure.

Yes more of a polar maritime flow, NW airstream rather than straight westerly or indeed southwesterly. As we move into January, conditions under such synoptics become less and less marginal if you want snow and cold, as the atlantic and arctic continue to cool, this is an important factor, a NW airstream packs a much more wintry punch in Jan and Feb, even March than in December.

Close to 3 inches of snow now, although it is very wet snow type so won't be around for long

Train drops are falling on my head

The GFS as others have put shows a very strong signal for Pm shots from the N/W, With deep low pressure sytems sweeping South at times bringing cold wintry conditions with gales for some. A very mobile outlook ahead which should make for some interesting model viewing.

ECM day 10 not without some wintry interest going forward I get a feeling that within the broadly west to east flow a wedge of high pressure here or there could well deliver some colder shots and potential snowfalls.

Not a bad snow event here in Stroud, it was really enjoyable to watch its approach last night, with the lashing rain turning to heavy snow eventually about 1am. , not having to get up made it all the more fun This morning we had a good 2/3 inches although a little wet it was a good covering, I made a snowman with my niece who was staying over early this morning before the melt started. just been up the hill with the dog and although a slushy mess in suburbia the fields at eleveatuon are beautiful with about 3/4 inches of fluffy yet sticky snow. all in all a nice little xmas snowfall. simon the snowman just now

Just goes to show that you don’t have to always go chasing the hallowed Greeny, Scandi blocks.

Another slider incoming at T72 on the ECM !!!!

Very heavy snow in Stevenage at 130m ASL. About 5cm so far

the 00z ecm run hasnt got past day one yet knocks?

Snowing quite heavily in Buntingford, East Hertfordshire. About 4cm so far, although it is very wet snow so don't think it will last long

Chris fawkes talks balls..personally i think he should be reprimanded.

Ditch the snow shovels and get the sand bags ready if the GFS 00z is to be belived, although I have little faith in any model atm how its chopping and changing so much

jan 4 is looking imteresting for the uk!!

Its snowing.

Lots of snow reports in the SW now - settling snow checked the 11:45-12 radar & that areas ppm is starting the eastward migration ... S