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Thanks Broadmayne Blizzard This isn't, or shouldn't be an ego platform, and I think its a good idea myself to appreciate the good thoughts and contributions of a very wide breadth of posters on this forum, and not focus on select contributors. Much as BB62/63 outlined so well yesterday evening Furthermore, as keeps being repeated but equally keeps getting ignored by a few members, its a good idea to represent correctly what posters say, in the correct perspective and context and not put a misleading slant on them, however un-intentional, in most cases at least, that may be. It takes enough time to put posts together, let alone having to keep re-correct words that often get put in the mouth Last week, advice was given not to get too sucked into ups and downs of intra day and ensemble suites and take them at face value. The summaries of bluearmy and MWB read between the lines very well and seem quite appropriate to range of possibilities over the medium terms. But, at present, from evidence that is available and up to date, the Global Wind Oscillation is heading to Phase 8 and the December composite is reflected pretty well in the upcoming weeks synoptics, and within a reliable time period I think beyond this time, is where extra care is particularly required in terms of NWP suggested output. Models are going to be very sensitive to the natural ebb in the tropical cycle and climatology will play a part in bias to a longer sustaining westerly pattern in these circumstances - especially set against a highly disorganised stratospheric profile But there has continued to show a willingness for tropical convection patterns to mirror the definitively east based nature of this La Nina - and hence display synoptic traits that are quite different to the predictable increased vortex intensification and flatter pattern that I happily admit I approached this season with a plenty of caution The evolution back to Phase GWO 4 (where we have just been), crucially assisted by seasonal wavelength cycle changes the pattern heading towards and especially into January. Nothing is ever guaranteed and no-one can be wholly psychic with the complexities of weather science. But that composite isn't too different to the anomaly chart that is still clearly in NWP running in ba's post this morning. Best not get hung up on translating that to a precise surface pattern or take the timing too literally, (though Christmas would be nice obviously in an ideal world). The downside pattern in terms of Indian Ocean tropical convection patterns taking over is the flatter pattern risk, emphasised in each and every post. But on the basis of the above analysis, the point to continue to labour is not to get pushed and pulled reactively by each and every model output suite I'm very much anticipating some atmospheric and angular momentum budget updates which will give some further important clues as to the extended Pacific and Atlantic patterns, and also developments beyond that in terms of looking NE. I'm sure others are very much doing the same By the way, its snowed in the last couple of days around the UK, away from the far south, and is snowing as I type outside folks windows at the moment and so please get out in it, take lots of pics and enjoy it whilst it lasts! Today illustrates what a microcosm one region of the country can be, let alone differences across the country commonly seen themselves. I'll trade the very underwhelming autumnal charade being played out here at the moment for putting some faith in a change of angle of approach and hopefully improve my own fortunes in joining in with some fun before too much more time has passed

I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes. No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.

Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons

Five clusters on the extended eps tells me that the modelling is waiting to decide where it's going also, it's just over two weeks since we saw this mid Atlantic/greeny high and nw euro low anomoly raise some eyebrows in here this morning we have this chart for Xmas - not a bad place to be methinks as it won't be exactly like this and adjustments in coldies favour could be very festive indeed

And I bet that is short lived with another NWerly plunge immediately after

You know the weather has turned into something serious when the model discussion thread has vanished in importance behind the regional threads When was the last time we had a start to winter like this? Anyway, a week of pretty cold uppers showing across the board now. Beyond that, the scatter is HUGE so I'm not too worried about the 6z operational at this stage.

Snowline has moved back across the water now so north kent / Surrey etc back in the fray - great wrap around as well heavy snow here in Eltham -1cm , wifey just text 0.2c in NAG with heavy snow as well - settling on top of the earlier snow as temps only got to 0.8c because we lived in Greenhithe today was the first day my 3 year old saw snow !

Very quiet in here which often happens when some snow is imminent for certain areas . This slider low must surely go down in NW history as one of the most microscopically analysed , with every jog south or north by a few miles met with panic or joy ! Putting aside this current saga which is drawing to a close we have seen some interesting trends over the last day on both the ECM and GFS trying to develop a ridge near Scandi towards day ten. Looking at the De Bilt ensembles we’re beginning to see a small cluster developing some very cold conditions. There are hints upstream that we could see a bit more amplitude developing after a relaxation of the positive PNA. This would help as it will begin to pull back the PV and send a bit more energy se which you need to develop lower heights over Southern Europe to support any high. It might be that we might need more than one attempt to get that Scandi high but perhaps it might arrive a bit sooner if the models are still slow at picking up the correct MJO signal . Singularity a few pages back made an excellent post regarding that and it does seem that the models forecasts were wrong and weakening the signal. So after an initial suggestion that things might turn milder it’s possible we could see the mainly cold weather extended .

Next few days will be interesting. Likely I think that the models are undercooking the to ongoing amplification signal but at the same time the Canadian trough is a significant feature and likely to encourage downstream cyclogenisis. Model scatter from mid month entirely predictable therefore. Over the longer term above average height anomalies to the north look set to return unless atmospheric momentum takes a nosedive and I don’t believe that is happening anytime soon (though data updates this coming week will confirm or deny this...) Assuming sustained amplification signal it is less about destination and more about timing. The mid Atlantic ridge at the end of this week may develop sufficient strength to impact on northern latitudes... or it may perhaps be temporarily flattened while the Canadian trough asserts itself. This will impact on Xmas week, and reading the very coy metoffice lange range forecast for Xmas week I suspect their own models are uncertain also about timing of height rises. As soon as AAM updates are available (hopefully tomorrow)I think you can all expect some predictive posts in this thread from the teleconnection brigade.. ?

I’ve just seen this on my Facebook newsfeed - made me chuckle!

My daughter made a 1 inch snowman

Must be a snow event if you can hear a pin drop in here right now! Anyway, Tomorrow night could spark some interest once again for people in SW or Southern England. Some undercutting cold air could bring some snowfall from that approaching storm from Northern France. Some strong winds yet again with this system, especially so for the Far SE coastal regions. ECM is a little more keen on the low being further North. After then, enjoy the snowfall as a brief (becoming v.brief with every run) mild intrusion likely on Wednesday, and then back to a colder Northerly setup. Rinse and repeat basically. And then there's the current conditions in the strat... What a winter this could turn out to be and its only December 10th!

Lots of snow for North Lewis over the weekend. About 6inches in depth.. deeper in drifts. The locals are saying most snow since 2010...

Got a teleconference with the met and first responders at 9 so can update on their thoughts at about 9.30 if interested

But we've known this for quite a few days now Frosty. Everyone knows we're going to have a milder or "less cold" spell. The post suggested a worry about longer term outputs and I don't know why when many of our learned posters have suggesting a return to colder weather late in Dec/early Jan. Again we've known this for some days now. Now is the time to relax and wait and not unduly worry about the short/medium term output in my view. We are only 10 days into winter after all.

Folks, my one word of advice from someone who once had their fingers frostbitten ... nothing is nailed on or certain 7 days out. A week ago someone nameless on here said that we were definitely in for a mild week. The models are not only at variance amongst themselves but there's huge ensemble scatter e.g. look at the variety of perturbations on the GFS12z: We've all done it: been convinced of a pattern, be that cold or hot but unless I see an absolutely rock solid blocking high e.g. the Bartlett slug or a Euro high or, for us cold fans, a rock solid Greenland high or Scandi high then I would urge than anything can happen beyond T144 and nothing is nailed on. So, for those who love snow and cold why not just enjoy the present?

These are neither isobars at the surface nor contour lines at 500 mb, about 18,000 ft up in the atmosphere. They are indicators of anomalies in heights at 500 mb (it tells us on the bottom what level the chart is). Do not confuse anomalies with the idea, for instance where the largish red area is west of the UK over the Atlantic that this shows an upper ridge. It does not but rather shows that heights in that area are expected to be above the normal value, based on climatology, for that area. Hope that helps some just a little bit. If you wish then please pm me and I will try and answer any questions or point you to someone who I think can. This saves cluttering up the model thread when it is busy.

Morning dip in hopes now rebounding with an improved GFS 12hrs run, a little more amplified upstream. A better trend even if the GFS doesn't deliver a Scandi high past day 8 but importantly this more amplified upstream pattern is showing within T144hrs. The UKMO isn't as good but better than this morning but there are some differences upstream between it and the GFS with timing of shortwave energy across the USA and Canada. Above is your pointer around T174hrs as to whether the trend is good or bad for the Scandi high. The more the troughing digs south the more stronger your ridge will develop to the ne and also the shape of the trough, the shape signifies say your movement so if you see a round base that's bad news that means the main energy is shifting east with little going se, the more sharper that trough becomes and digs south the better chance of developing that ridge to the ne.

Im in the milf sector too, I guess it has its benefits

MORNING GANG ,i have not posted much lately ,recently lost my lovely wife of 38 yrs married .Up till about 10 minutes ago i was sat watching the pouring rain and watching the trees swirl in the wind ,hoping that it would turn to heavy snow HEY PRESTO its arrived , now this is much earlier than i expected . pretty heavy now ,for those who say it wont pitch i have seen many a snow fall pitch on wet ground over the years , no guarantee though .Radar looking impressive to our north and if the precipitation can carry on for several hours we could see a winter wonderland , great reading all your reports on this forum ,the snow currently is coming down in waves but likely that once the colder air takes a hold proper ,and gets rid of the warmer air just a little above our heads we could see i guess a good prolonged fall ,cheers all LEGRITTER .

Good news for the s / se..Latest information shows an increasing risk of some snow across London and other parts of the southeast today and overnight compared to yesterdays models plus an increasing chance of wet snow across the southeast tomorrow with temps a little colder than yesterday's models were showing..good luck with the snow! Looking at the week ahead, tomorrow and tuesday looks cold with frosts, ice and snow in places..the midweek period becomes less cold with some rain but then later in the week cold air returns from the north with widespread frosts and ice risk returning. The Gfs 00z then shows a strongly anticyclonic outlook with crisp sunny days and very frosty nights with freezing fog & further ice days, especially where fog persists or is slow to clear!

Milf sector that’s a new one ?

Because as Tamara and GP pointed out the other day there will be a transition period from the end of the current Atlantic ridge driven cold spell to another cold spell come xmas/new year driven by hieght rises to our north and northeast. This was always on the cards and it is no surprise to see it in the modelling.

Big forecast bust for the GFS here high res hirlam & aperge spot on- !! Another 20-30 mile slide overnight brings heavy snow to london --

The Welsh thread have the answer... Apparently we have a waved occlusion from E to W across the midlands, a leftover from todays low. It has been detected that It is intensifying south west of Ireland and is expected to cross Wales this evening and move across us overnight. Basically it seems to be a deepening wave depression, that has yet another wave on it. I'll post the charts they found after posting this. MIA

A 62/63 winter so I'm told was the coldest for 240 years which really was very freaky. There are lots of variations of winter for the UK but you can get a damn good winter without the severity of that infamous winter. As far as I'm concerned the winter has started on a high note for me......can it continue , looks very interesting viewing in the days ahead

It's slowed down a lot late afternoon onward in North Bucks but never quite stopped. Bin-top total was a healthy 14.5cm, not bad at all!

11 points super city.....and snow..... well happy....

Word to the wise folks, don't take the BBC/Met Office/Any other app's hourly forecast too literally. It's a one way ticket to a heart condition otherwise!

Milf sector Beats a mild sector I guess!

What's really interesting today is that the model data has done a great job for 99% of the time in terms of prec type, with the prec in the SE, it has it turning inrceasingly wintry from 1400, so the radar will start to change more at that point. One thing we've looked at, and may start doing for the radar is running the modelling for the prectype in 15 minute increments rather than hourly, then changes will come through earlier in situations such as this.

To the folks saying no gritters are out...Just think about it. Each local authority has thousands of km of roads, and a handful of gritters. The chances of you actually spotting one unless you are stood there for 3 or 4 hours in the same spot are pretty small The gritters were out. Grit isn't a magic pixie dust that stops snow from settling.

Well a couple more cold days to come with hard frosts over the snowfields-it's been a while since we could say that! So we now look ahead and the rest of the week looking less cold but still fairly chilly until the end of the week but Atlantic fronts from mid-week finally modifying our pool of Arctic air. The 12z runs still showing the demise of the upstream Alaskan ridge for a few days from around day 6.This frees up the Canadian trough to drive east flattening the Atlantic ridging,at least temporarily in week 2.The ens charts do show that after the north westerly next weekend we should expect a less cold westerly pattern for a few days Day 9 means The later eps/gefs do indicate the return of the Alaskan ridge quite quickly though so along with the ongoing cross polar +ve height anomalies we are certainly not looking at our usual mid December strong zonal pattern around the globe. Time will tell whether that resurgent ridging upstream will translate into the Atlantic.

Entered phase 7 yesterday according to the RMM plots, whether it motors through to P8 and 1 remains to be seen, though perhaps at low amplitude according to some plots: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Phases 7/8/1 correlate to producing colder patterns, but there is obviously a lag of 10+ days from these phases, so may not be until later in December we may see changes, maybe in time for Xmas?

Woke to rain and 1.4.c in the night and the sound of dripping from gutters, fell back to sleep and woke at 7am to find it was already snowing. Fun in the snow all day on and off. Feel so happy for those with kids who finally got to build snowmen with them. I built a snow lantern out of snowballs this evening and it was surprisingly effective! (and didn't melt!)

A little more hope?

No snow but a pretty sunset by way of compensation!

In Bournemouth 23c but at least we have the sea all is not lost.

A quick look at last nights NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies, not forgetting previous runs, to see whether there are any indications of the forthcoming evolution. I need to keep the waffle short as I'm on my Tablet as my main website connection is still on the blink. Overy the next 14 days there are some upstream changes perhaps indicative of the PNA going negative. An Aleutian trough develops with a stronger Alaskan ridge and more importantly a reorientation of the Canadian vortex lobe and associated troughs, one of which is aligned east south of Greenland. Quite importantly this affects the orientation and intensity of the Atlantic Ridge and with a strong upper flow still leaving the eastern seaboard a tendency for the flow over the Atlantic to become more zonal Having said that the flow in the eastern Atlantic does abate somewhat and splits under the influence of the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge, positive anomalies NW of Norway connected to the east European Ridge and the weakening trough to the south East of the UK. Ergo the changeable and quite cool weather could quite possible become more settled with Temps creeping up to be near average but more than likely a return to the proverbial north south split.

Evening all, tomorrow morning's potential snow event is one of the hardest to call I've ever seen, particularly for Dorset and Hampshire. It is baffling that even the 18Z models are up to 50 miles too far south (maybe more) with the rain band over Brittany at just T3. The rain is heavy. I'm seeing modelled temperatures for my area about 1.5C out at just T3 on some models too. The Met Office say only settling over 100 metres - well there's always 100 metres margin for error with these things. Winds are from the north, so coastal influence less of a problem. So I see perhaps a 30% chance of a substantial snow event even by the time we wake up.

here's a few flakes-

I have a very serious 'casualty' to report tonight!! My favourite lamp-post - its...................... disappered. I have to report that I have had so much snow that the lamppost is no longer visible...... behind a snow laden flowering cherry tree in the front garden. Its never happened to me before. I feel very vulnerable Fortunately I have a backup 50 meters down the road. But I cannot see it from my bed. To me it is worse than the drama up in Shrewsbury. MIA

Can’t post a photo of my snow measurement but, we’re almost up to 8 cm here (not sure how accurate it is to measure on a bin lid). That’s 3 cm more than a few hours ago. Didn’t realise that much more had fallen! P.S. Sorry for being a miserable git

Being sledging for 3hrs and absolutely worn out but who cares what Great Day for us coldies Currently 0.1c and still snizzling

Head and shoulders mate

I suspect we will see varying output from the models in the days ahead, some will ramp up the atlantic due to the foreseen changes you mention, whereas others will show a much weaker attempt - my own hunch is any atlantic onslaught will be weak and watered down, and longer terms heights to the NE will be the growing theme - may take a bit of time, period of interest exactly around christmas, a white cold New Year could be on the cards.

Towards the end of February

We've got 4" of snow already, and judging by the radar, it's going to keep coming for hours and hours!! I am restored!!!