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I suspect some are missing the significance of the deeply neg AO upcoming the amplification introduced into the NH pattern and subsequent vortex disruption provides for further opportunities to bleed cold into the mid latitudes thereafter. Whilst this particular negative phase may not bring any snowy wintry conditions to nw Europe, it could well leave us with a mid lat high which could lead to a greeny or Scandi ridge a week or two down the line. there is currently no sign of the vortex returning to Greenland on the extended two week ens suites. N American upper temp profile is not predicted to be cold which would fire up the jet. Upper strat zonal flow whilst on the strong side is not descending. there is nothing to be downbeat about as we approach winter proper.

Perhaps i should post them more often..it's certainly helped the 12z runs so far

God bless the pub run .........

Time for some reverse psychology..really great Ecm 12z with beautiful balmy sw'ly zephyrs bathing the UK in unseasonable mild conditions..hope it verifies!!!!

That's got nothing to do with it, I was making the point that the Ecm 00z / 12z are completely different...however, I make no apology for seeking cold..most on here would agree!

Evening- once again the 18z exhibits a sharper profile of colder air heading south over the UK in the 72 timeline- initially the atlantic was progged to breakthrough - however across the last 18-24 hours that process has slowed- with cold air clinging on in the east- At the same time the allignment of the flow over Northern Europe has increasing become North Easterly bringing in colder & colder air- SW through Scandi Finally the GFS post 120 is showing signs that the atlantic doesnt get through & is developing a strong pulse of WAA across western Greenland- similar to 2010... the upward flow is almost identical ! keep an eye on it!!!

Remember that time when EC was 44/52 for an easterly at 120 and it vanished... it is by no means perfect.. Gfs 18z has a nose for cold/vodka/crystal meth (delete as applicable).

AO watch 12z ec: -4 eps: -4.1 gfs: -4 gefs: -3.9 gens: -4

The models have beem very accurate over the last week - 10 days in predicting the -AO signature - even the NAO which has less volatility - not sure why your repeating yourself - Day 5 is only T120, yet the GFS plots have trended negative back from day 10- All the AO does is release cold into mid lattitudes & the deeper negative it becomes so the more stationary the overall 2-4 standing waves become - It doesnt guarantee cold for the UK - there is no global metric / teleconnection that is small scale enough for that - but you know all that- not sure why your being so pedantic- Theres always been an obsession with these 2 because when the UK has had long sustained cold events then these being negative go hand in hand- Net weather members should make up their own metric - Call it the NWO measuring pressure differential or Height differentials across Iceland / The azores / Norway & somewhere like France - That would work the best for the UK S

Slightly more amplified in the atlantic on the gfs 12z at 114 hours .not sure if it will have any effect. Not sure if its of any interest? Probably just a wasted post Infact il get my coat!!!!!

Wow I can't keep up Netweather meltdown has been successfully achieved on the Gfs 18z!..Bank! I shall sleep well tonight and dream of magical snow

A few late November goodies from the GEFS 6z which show a wintry end to autumn and a wintry start to winter..just for fun at this range but at least I'm trying to do my bit to keep spirits up for those hoping for cold / frost / snow!

well the 18z gives snow to the whole country during its run. except sussex. for sale- 1 hat 1 scarf 1 carrot several lumps of coal excellent condition, never used....

Oh my days Picasso would struggle to draw a nicer picture with his pencils plenty of cold to keep tapping into as well

Posting my last post from yesterday again here 'Expect more flip flopping from the models in the next few runs, wouldn't be at all surprised to see many showing high pressure settling in and over the UK once again, jetstream profile looks rather ragged and broken, suggesting ridge development and heights will ridge through the country, low heights becoming squeezed and diffuse'. Alas the models are doing just this, GFS has reverted back to high pressure building over the country, so to did ECM midnight run, now its gone off on a SW fest. UKMO appears to be siding more with GFS. Far too much uncertainty at the moment to put any faith in any model beyond a very short timeframe of just 72 hours..

I’m good thanks, at 34 years old I’ve managed to master how I like to live my life.

Hope the a** ripping didn't cause any "seepage"

Gosh 113 browsing, There’s a lot riding on the ECM tonight! Before it rolls, just a gentle reminder that there’s the Moan/Ramp thread and local regional threads for chewing the fat over if it’ll snow in your back garden or sobbing into your horlicks - depending on your preference.

Still too much uncertainty in the models to throw the towel in for some colder weather. The situation is finely balanced because the UK is at the weak end of the blocking , this often means low pressure will want to head ne from the sw at that point. And if you’re on the wrong side of that you’re in the milder air which is what we’ve seen shown in quite a few outputs At present it looks like it’s a close but no cigar outcome but I think we’d need a few more runs to see whether the block might get edged further east . Upstream we want to see the high boxed in and not allowed to seep heights into Canada , that way we see more forcing on the pattern in the Atlantic .

The anomaly charts are going through what one might call a changeable phase and are no use for forecast guidance. I'll be back when they are showing consistency over about 3 days with each other and themselves!

Today generally cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle in places in N. Ireland, Wales and England but in some places during the day the cloud will break giving sunny intervals and temps could reach 14C except possibly in the far north of England where it will be fresher and brighter. This will aslo be the case in Scotland where there has been a slight frost in places but later a rapidly developing low will track quickly north east to be NNW of Scotland 987mb by midnight with the front and strong winds already impacting the north west of Scotland/ The front tracks south east across the UK on Thursday as the low continues north east veering the wind NW over Scotland with showers, of snow on the high ground, allowing the high pressure to edge in further south. But by 12 Saturday the high pressure has quickly amplified and ridged strongly north west thus halting the progress of the low as it moves into western Norway (dumping a fair amount of snow in the progress) as it starts to change track south east and resulting in a cooler northerly airstream over the UK albeit quite light. From this point things get a tad complicated with new upper trough tracking east from the eastern seaboard linking to the trough further south creating a complex surface low pressure area to the west which by 00 Tuesday has pushed fronts in from the south west which at that time are lying across central Britain accompanied by rain. But it's worth looking at the delineation between the cold and warm air here as it is possible that snow could be generated to the NE of the front. This battle between the warmer Atlantic and the cooler air to the north west continues over the next couple of days as the UK becomes the coal face of the two energy flows, one the NW around Greenland and the other from the south west, (shades of the anomalies) and if nothing else the detail of this weather wise would be interesting. Of course that is bound to change in the interim The point vis the anomalies can be seen on this morning's GEFS

Convective snow showers off the North Sea with thunder snow later next week anyone? Let the 18z GFS tease you ...

When the GFS goes so far against it's own climatology zonal bias, I pay attention, especially when the other models are going more or less full zonal train. In these situations, the GFS is either spectacularly correct and we see the other models take a sharp backtrack, or the GFS climbs down spectacularly. There's never a "halfway house". I don't know whats going on with the weather models these last few days but they've been completely and utterly useless.

Most of the statement is correct above i agree 100 percent just one little thing i don't agree with it ain't winter yet so can't kill what not here yet.

If the overall trend could continue a little further, ECM and UKMO would have no choice but to start reconsidering alternatives to the blowtorch-mega-thermal-gradient-storm chain as I expect the media would be keen to call it. I wonder just how much influence this tropical storm is having on the output. Perhaps quite a bit; GFS treats it very differently on the 12z; Instead of staying independent of the jet stream, it becomes entangled, adding an extra loop south to that jet which holds up the pattern more than is seen in the case of ECM or UKMO. I must say it's weird seeing a tropical system heading for the Canary Islands, although I expect cooler waters would probably force ex-tropical transition before arrival there. Probably. Worth noting that UKMO looks in a better position to take the trough as a whole east of the UK by day 8 than ECM. So somewhat ironically, it's the American model that's by far the closest to the UK Met's recent mid-range outlook updates. Really interesting how they describe a colder, drier north and milder (but not more than average), wetter (but not that wet) south. This is a matter for (and being well discussed in) another thread, of course.

personally, i'm not too interested in the detail of the current output. its all a variation on a theme. that theme is high latitude blocking. that's what interests me. its still autumn, so any snow now is just a little bonus. its unlikely to be significant at this time of year anyway. however, we are seeing big high pressure cells modelled, keeping the vortex in disarray and a negative AO. the longer these patterns continue, the better it will be when winter actually arrives. then instead of us collectively attempting to use 'the force' to get that standard feeble atlantic ridge to nose toward greenland, as we watch the charts roll out, we could actually be watching out for 'when' not 'if' that epic snowfall arrives. "the force is strong with this one..."

What drama! I don’t want to open Pandora’s box with the issue of data coverage in some key areas but this can be a factor . You can read that from the horses mouth and tonight’s NOAA extended discussion. They mention upper energy in data sparse regions north of Alaska and Russia and they do sometimes allude to data problems in previous discussions I’ve read . The issue we’re seeing is the exact orientation of blocking and height seepage , that’s my new term for this winter ! Lol As I mentioned earlier today we want the blocking boxed in and not allowed to seep towards Canada because this then puts less forcing on energy in the Atlantic . Effectively we want the main block to remain as far east as possible so to avoid the dreaded west neg NAO.

Well I can't believe it, here comes the easterly, scandi high.... The forum will be in melt down if ECM come on board later on.

I said it was just for fun plus it's relevant as its what's shown on the GEFS..no matter how unlikely. In any case, the extended outlook doesn't indicate a mild mush fest, there is some interest for coldies as we approach winter.

Models making the synoptic evolution past t+144 rather complicated as they try to handle a split jet stream over the N Atlantic going around the block next week and how much energy goes into the southern arm and how much into the northern arm. Impressive Greenland block and cold air trying it's hardest to push south across the UK early next week, areas of low pressure spinning up from the SW beneath the block preventing the cold air getting all the way south in a confident manner, though the 00z EC det. does briefly at day 10 - albeit can't trust that would come off at that range. Ultimately, I think the high latitude blocking will be situated too far north for all the UK to tap into the cold air to the north, however, could be some interesting battleground snow events playing out across Scotland next week?

Could be one of the most sustained deeply neg AO op runs ever !! seriously, those betting the 12 and 18z gfs ops against the last two ec suites are asking to be disappointed come the 00z runs ............... unless ...........

Going to have model fatigue before winter has even arrived at this rate that low really blows up from 144-168, looks odd

Not quite an easterly, but this is even better, nationwide snowfall, temps of around 0c.

Just catching up..the back end of the Ecm 00z op in particular looks good for coldies with a blast of arctic sourced air with 520 / 522 dam thicknesses bringing wintry showers with some snow ( especially on hills) and widespread night frosts / icy patches! The longer term signal still indicates plenty of below average / cold temps with frost and fog and also hints at short-lived milder interludes of atlantic weather which to me would include some wintry ppn at times as fronts bump into cold air across the uk..not bad considering its still autumn.

Whether it comes off or not (ok, probably not) THIS is why we all love coming on this forum in times of (often false) hope. For the crazy ups and downs the model runs give us through the dark winter months. It's almost as much fun as when we actually get a good dumping of the white stuff! Like it or loathe it, we all know we'd miss the 18z pub run if the NCEP ever decided to discard it ?

Forget Bernie Madoff, the weather models are the mother of all ponzi schemes.....they draw you in offering huge returns in the near future, only then to drain you and suck you dry leaving you broken but no wiser as you keep on falling for it year after year.......lol the outputs are are all over shop, but the overall NH profile looks promising for coldies, FI firmly at T120 IMHO

Lol just for fun.. ens number 13 anyone :).

This will keep quite a few happy in here if this came off,

"Holy Ice cubes! Quick, to the ensembles Robin!"

Yes looking at the NH view of the vortex and it's clear to see why the +ve pressure anomalies continue to show up on the AO graph as deeply negative. The problem for us is the way the lobes of the pv are situated and the amplification in the Atlantic being clean enough to drive the Arctic cold southwards.We currently continue to see a split jet pattern and lows cutting off the main pv in mid-Atlantic which makes modelling of the Atlantic/Azores high tricky. A look at t144hrs on the 3 main models Note the little low in mid-Atlantic where the jet is split. GFS on the left sends it further south and avoids thejoining of the 2 main vortex lobes over Canada and Scandinavia so this leaves the window open for another ridging attempt towards Greenland later. T192hrs-GFS and then ECM The ECM and and more than likely the later UKMO are sending more energy across to the north shutting out the further ridging that the later GFS op goes on to show.Hence the cold v mild differences by T192hrs. It's quite common in a split jet scenario that we see these type of differences and one occasion where a mean chart isn't much help.We just have to see how this is resolved in the next few runs.

AO watch 00z ec: -4.3 eps: -4 gfs: -4.1 gefs: -4.5 gens: -3.8

Not a surprise for more changes. Probably room for more too. Interesting ECM tonight, with positive moves from GFS and UKMO I would like to and hope to see an upgraded ECM. Strong solar burst hit 14/15 Nov, I wonder if it will perturb the jet stream south and the models will reflect this as we move forward. Major flare/solar wind burst anticipated to hit Earth 24th onwards. If nothing else should some strong lovely northern lights BFTP

Maybe the signal is for the subtropical storm SW of the Azores, which had a 50% chance to develop yesterday, now dropped to 5%. Less energy out west helping build a more stable block?

Maybe for once the pattern starts too far west, then corrects east as we get closer to T zero and we end up with a belting North Easterly!! Nice thought anyway.

Very best wishes for all of you to have a stonkingly good winter... I'm happy living down here in Englandshire (and I cleverly chose a bit with some nearby good snowy hills (Wrekin, Long Mynd, S.Shrops Hills) and decent frosts most years albit only a sprinkling of snow at our level thus far over three mild winters) , but I do miss the Kilted thread at this time of year, have to say. They don't have anything like you lot down here Tons of snowy regards to everyone! BMW

We could be using our snow shovels to clear Saharan sand off the sidewalk before the month's out.

Didn't know we can now get N America view for ECM on meteociel, very handy for when we need to look upstream for evolving cold patterns next winter, being as though this winter is already over

The last 3 winters have had the euro slug at some point, last winter was not the same although it did have it at times, we did get low pressure into Europe at times though. Regarding this winter been killed by the same I'm sorry is the most ridiculous statement yet I'm afraid. It's 15th(?) November, and our first attempt at that aswel!

Haven’t we been here before, where the models drop something only for it to be picked up a few days later...?! Sure we have!

The ECM is outrageously complex this morning with all manner of small troughs jumping the Atlantic and running into a trough to our NE - cold air does work its way south but it's painfully slow, probably snow over the northern hills by T216. Again it's so close to getting cold all the way from the Arctic to the UK but cut off at the final hurdle. Rather cold and wet by the end of next week I expect from this one. Still room for a change!