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Bonkers NH profile on the end of the GFS again. It must be a strong signal to keep returning like it has over the last few runs. Tbh if the NH profile looks anything similar towards mid/late November and we don't get any cold from it then I think we should all give up and join a knitting forum or something. Lots of chilly if not cold weather on offer before then, which is for me is great in November. Let's hope it leads to something even better.

Evening All- If you ever want a chart to verify its the ECM day 10 - its the perfect chart for cold @day 12 & 13. heres the chart with 2 key dates from the archives. No pressure.....

well, i give it my full support!

I think the anomalies were adequately covered yesterday evening so just the latest GEFS and EPS AO which are pretty much as expected. And a couple of lower Strat charts which are a fair facsimile of the 500mb field Today sees the UK between pressure systems. Starting off fine and frosty in many places but the E/SE still influenced by yesterday's cold front hanging around so remaining cloudy until late on. Sunny elsewhere but fronts approaching from the north west will bring cloud and rand rain to NW Scotland during the day. Overnight and during tomorrow this will move south east leaving clearer and cooler weather in their wake but showery and quite windy in places particularly northern Scotland. After a miserable attempt by the Azores to ridge NE on Friday the frontal wave that has nipped around the high pressure is centred over northern England whilst at the same time becoming incorporated in the circulation of the deep low ENE of Iceland. Thus a wet Friday evening and night for most turning quite wintry in Scotland but the wave is moving very quickly and by 12 Saturday is over Denmark. This heralds the much vaunted but very brief amplification as the wind veers northerly bringing some general wintry weather with snow on the hills in the north From this point the week and including next weekend can be summed up as the usual battle between the eastbound energy and the cooler air and the warmer Azores high pressure which the former wins. The jet is actually being forced further south across the US by the trough in western North America before swinging up around the Azores high cell and it does tend to get disrupted by the interaction with the high pressure before by the end of the week the more unsettled weather becomes established Thus a pretty mixed bag for the week with periods of mainly light rain interspersed by sunny interval before heavier rain and high winds enter the fray but this getting way too far ahead of ourselves.

Makes me think if it were the heart of winter we may have been getting buried in the white stuff, that’s if we get to there, but increasing confidence of Greenland blocking a big rarity in recent years due to the ‘purple monster’. So very interesting times.

game over! 8 th November, it has not yet started or have the seasons changed? In the shorter range the wave position is quite interesting, how far north will it get, how much rain. Snow possible on the highest peaks of England and snow in showers for hills in Scotland?

and EC Weeklies.... 14-20 Nov Troughing over Italy and the Balkans, Ridging over the UK and Scandi. Jet mostly Zonal across the Atlantic. Precip forecast for most of the UK is drier than average. Snowfall anomalies are average. England is cooler than normal, Scotland and Ireland is average temperature wise. 21-27 Nov Troughing over France, Iberia and Southern UK. Strong Greenland/Icelandic High (I believe people have already touched in this). Jetstream heading towards the SE across the U.K. Precip anomalies over Western Great Britain are drier than average and over the Eastern Great Britain, is around average. Snowfall anomalies are average. The entire UK is cooler than normal. 28 Nov- 4 Dec Troughing over Iberia and France, ridging over Iceland. Similar setup to the previous week with the jet and 500mb anoms in the region. Most of the UK is drier than normal, except the East Coast, which is average. Snowfall is forecast to be below average in the Scottish Highlands. England is cooler than normal, Scotland is average temperature wise To compare, here is the SubX multi model ensemble forecast. It contains the typical GEFS and GEPS ensembles, and the less well known models, NAVGEM, FIM, NASA GMAO, and CCSM. These are all produced by various American meteorological agencies and research institutes. 11-17 Nov It shows an Atlantic ridge with a troughing pattern across from Iceland to Italy, including past the Eastern UK. 18-24 Nov Ridging anomalies from the Atlantic and over Northern Europe, including over the U.K. Troughing over Southern Europe and the Mediterranean. 25 Nov - 1 Dec A ridge over Scandi into European Russia, with a weak ridging pattern across the U.K. Anyway that's the sub Seasonal models.....

We can only speak in general terms at the moment and with that in mind the big picture seems to be the models strengthening the Arctic blocking in the 8-10 day range compared to previous output if anything. Also for the same period the Scandi ridge seems to be getting some support again for the same period. Add to that the strong signal for Atlantic blocking and positive height anomalies moving into Greenland after mid month and some form of cold outbreak in last 3rd of November looks fairly likely though we could still get unlucky with regard to positioning and orientation of blocking. P14 provides a sort of composite of all those things mentioned above.

The models continue with the dramatic outputs signposting a significant modality change in the AO reaching the crescendo in about 11-12 days time around -4 to -5 index value A full reversal of flow around the pole across ~70N- a unique & stunning chart Still plenty of time for it to be watered down however the key for long term developments is around 168 with a reverse cross polar flow all the way from Russia to canada across the pole ! S

Very interesting re ECM......rhythm of the winter, odd stark changes. We could see some southerlies before northerlies. I’m happy with the thought that we will get displaced PV over us then to our east with HP to our W/ NW..... how we get there will be interesting......ecm I’m inclined to be with. This could get very interesting BFTP

The ecm and gfs day ten mean,you don't see that very often

some cracking output lately, negative AO, greenland highs, retrogressing highs, the works. a lot of variation in the evolutions but pretty much just a variation on a theme- that theme being a smashed vortex. as they used to say in my native north east, in relation to a famous department store, if we dont get a decent snowfall this winter, i'll show my @rse in Fenwicks window!

I've just borrowed Nicks crayons for a second. Low pressure to the North of the UK will head South/South-Eastwards, high pressure will shift North-Westwards towards and over Greenland and the cold air over Central Europe will push East towards the UK. Basically identical to the 2010 gif posted above. Of course, it'll all change on the next run, but this chart is about as good as we can expect.

After four years of people 'self' forecasting and predicting snow etc in the MOD thread and cherry picking models that will never happen, I think a bit of banter is deserved and banter is often sarcastic in a light hearted way. The Daily Express does it and look what happens to them on this site.

Recurrent theme of the models in recent days, and continuing today is the signal for significant height rises over the Pole and into N Russia, with a rather stretched PV over N Canada. Excellent building blocks for something cold further down the line, but as others have stated, there are always fine margins when it comes to the UK, we can sit neatly on the cold/mild divide, so it remains to be seen how things might evolve, but certainly the models are painting very different synoptics to what we normally expect in mid November i.e. a dominant atlantic westerly pattern, now is the least likely time of year for strong heights to edge out the power of the atlantic, but there is no denying the fact that since mid October, the atlantic has gone into some slumber - mmm might be something to do with all the heat fluxed up from ex-tropical storm activity.. In the short-term, the models are suggesting a more potent northerly shot this weekend - indeed a long fetch northerly, shortlived yes, but come Sunday wintry showers could fall to quite low levels in the north, and it will be cold everywhere in the keen arctic wind. A classic toppler scenario, but pleasing to see all the same given we've a thread commenting on how rare such synoptics have been in recent years outside of the Spring/summer months at least. Certainly some interesting model output in recent days, not your standard November fayre.

I don't need a Mystic meg or tealeaves this Christmas, I'm getting myself a snow making machine and also the Snowfall decorative lighting yoyokit rotating led projector from amazon, so 100% full proof White Christmas coming up for me what ever happens.

Just to explain the importance of tilt to troughing this signifies if you like where the energy from this wants to go, also the shape of low pressure. In this type of set up we're relying on high pressure over central southern Europe being sucked north. This is the reaction to low pressure in the Atlantic amplifying and digging south into the Atlantic, so as that low digs south and elongates the high is forced north but we want energy from low pressure to the west to not spill over the top so this is where your tilt of low/troughing comes into the equation. Negative tilt is the low aligned more nw/se, positive ne/sw and neutral n/s.

Don't you just love Day 10!

The early daffs would love this on the Ecm 12z this evening..almost summery charts!

Wait for the undercut at 240 Edit: There it is High Pressure retrogressing towards Greenland, low pressure going underneath, low pressure into Central Southern Europe. The next frame would be a Steve Murr "boom" chart.

This is a brief look at the GFS output for 00 and 06Z out to T+168h and a look ahead to 14 days with the anomaly charts =xLooking at the GFS output today 8 nov 2017.doc

That's the scene now. 30cm of snow cover. More in the forecast later on Sunday. Hope that frontal wave stays on a more southerly track as shown above so limits any warm sector on its southern flank for the Alps. However, latest GFS runs seems to hold a more northerly route. If that's the case snowfall above 800m could be possible in North Wales and Pennines. One for you lot to watch . Meanwhile, getting excited about another dump on Sunday night in our part of the Alps. Great weather watching this is.

Great shots. Plenty of pix from across the country coming in on Twitter from lower latitudes such a Brecon Beacons and Anglesey. I could only see a faint glow low on the Northern horizon here (S. Staffs).

The supposition that there may be a lag on NOAA due the transition period of the pattern changewould appear to be on the money. The EPS 10-15 is not a million miles away from the NOAA so a tricky weather picture on the basis of this with temps below average but no obvious route to a Polar Plunge, or any other plunge come to that.

My best snowman of recent times ....

well it's nice to finally be back here after having been away for over a year I think. Things really do seem to be shaping up for a far more interesting winter than we've had in a long while and it's no surprise to me at least that this is coinciding with a decline in sunspot activity. Anyhow, thought I would throw my pennies worth in re the ECM.. If that rolled on I don't think many of us would be best pleased, the High to our East would sink and the winds would swing around to a direct southerly and the low to our South West would roll over the high and reset the Atlantic. It's easy to look at charts and imagine what you want to see evolving, but you can't always do that you have to look at the frames previous to see the likely evolution. It's an interesting end to the ECM, but I prefer the GFS evolution as it keeps us in the game. Still it's all way too far out to invest any thoughts into, if there's one thing I've learn't over the past decade on this site, it's that when it comes to winter you really can't get yourself excited about anything beyond 144 ..well you can if you want to, but be prepared to be let down more often than not. great to be back with something worth discussing for once

Very true - when you look at the AO forecast, NAO forecast, easterly QBO, the La Niña situation, as well at the Met Office longer range output, then surely it isn't going to be long before we start seeing some realistic eye candy in a shorter time frame.

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Nov 2017 to Thursday 7 Dec 2017: There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. There is also an increasing risk of snow at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of overnight frosts. Updated: 14:43 on Wed 8 Nov 2017 GMT

How about Met O forecasts are put in the correct thread folks and we all stick to our interpretation of what the title says MODEL thread, eh?

Hi there, that's the forecast freezing level for Sat morning in your location but in heavier precipitation could easily turn to sleet and snow at lower levels due to cooling. The freezing level by Sunday afternoon will be 300m in parts of central Northern England.

Following on from my last post... Small changes early doors (day 6) have big consequences further on as to how blocks align. We're seeing the models generally sharpen up Pacific side ridging this morning- this is the GEM... With the trop vortex still being in its relative infancy, it is being given a hard time- being ripped apart at will. The issue is still there however, this is trop led and not strat led. The strat will couple with the trop at some point. We're just a smidgen too early for any deep cold as the GFS shows in FI.

Get a decently rigid block between Greenland and Scandi and the Atlantic is all but buggered for the foreseeable. 18z wants to try and give it a go This is one of the most stunning charts you'll see in a UK winter...if it was January it would bring the UK to a standstill

That's a sh*t snowman

Did it start like this

Nyet, I cannae stand Day 10 - my mother always used to tell me that 'tomorrow never comes' - let alone day ten!

You must be joking...Realism!? Caution?!

Wouldnt be suprised but lets enjoy the eye candy while its there :-D

Nice to have you back! Like a school reunion in here tonight!

Looks well positioned for retrogression and undercut with Arctic blast around the corner. No consistency in the models as to what form of blocking and type flow we will end up with yet though.

Surely not a repeat of this

Got to laugh sometimes, ECM such a party pooper. PV shot to pieces, and we get the old blow torch!

Cheers CS for the new thread! Let’s hope it becomes a hive of activity with thousands upon thousands of snow reports - @lassie23 Sunday evening if GFS 12z is to be believed nice bit of good old sleet for London and the Home Counties.

Not much point in looking at this in isolation but as I was just passing through, so to speak. The 06 10-15 GEFS anomaly merely illustrates be wary or jumping the gun once again It has the previously discussed amplification in the Atlantic but the overall NH pattern is such (ridging across the pole being an integral part of it) not only facilitates the creation of the strong meridional pattern that stops any west-east improvement but also the distinct possibility of a cut off low in the vicinity of the UK with no pathway for CAA from the north As mentioned last evening this sort of evolution requires precise alignments. Anyway just a passing thought

Looking at GFS ensembles I would say the Atlantic blocking signal is about as strong as it could be for last third of Nov this far out. Hopefully we get lucky with the blocking and the cold signal will begin to pick up with it over the next few days.

Spotless or not, faint aurora tonight 07 Nov 017 and a moondog! 8 sec, f1.8, iso eq.100 taken about 9.00pm

Don't forget the trend is your friend

Note the small chunk of vortex surfing the Arctic ridge n Siberia on the ec op day 8. That should traverse across to the Canadian side and cut off the ridging. If it doesn't it's a strong sign that we really could be in business from an arctic perspective which should encourage a more sustained greeny height rise. I think it was there yesterday's 00z run but absent on the 12z.

Baby steps.....we are not used to November chills since the 90s so to have day to day signals of a cool set up, if not every 6hr run, is promising. The best odds I found for White Christmas in Newcastle this year is 4 to 1. I've never in 10 year of taking a festive punt had such short odds (3 yrs won) and the bookies are rarely wrong, to think I won 8 to 1 in 2010, I think the odds are due for another win.

@nick sussex,glad to see you posting again mate,but something is troubling me....oh! i know what it is.....no shortwave commentary from you this year so what do or did we have today in the models (and i am going to focus on that low off the south of Newfoundland) from the gfs today at 240 hrs+ and all speculative at the moment 00z,has this break off from the main low over that area to allow heights to build in behind it but there was a shortwave behind it so not a clean cut but ends ok http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&heure=0&jour=7&mois=11&annee=2017&archive=1&carte=1 06z,there wasn't a clean break away from the parent low in that area so stalled the progression of heights building into the atlantic forcing a west based -NAO http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&heure=6&jour=7&mois=11&annee=2017&archive=1&carte=1 12Z,now this was the best run out of the three in terns of a clean cut FL with no shortwave drama and sharp WAA into the west side of Greenland of which this is what we want to see in future runs but it's not that simple is it http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&carte=1 both the 06z and 12z control runs was spectacular in that respect. now onto some anomoly's of which i always find usefull when looking at the bigger picture to determine where we might go i posted the the mean chart from the gefs at 384 hrs last night of which was a good chart at that distance,now to compare with tonight one 24 hrs later yesterday's and today's,that is still a good mean if not better than yesterday's with more heights in the Atlantic and the gef's mean geopotential heghts is not too shabby either with the trough sinking SE into the continent from 240 hrs it matches the latest from NOAA http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&carte=1&mode=5 and the latest from the telleconnections NAO gfs outlooks and ens mean outlooks,and the AO gfs outlooks and ens mean outlooks still trending negative although not as sharp on the -values as last night phew!!! i need a break after all that and it's only the beginning of November lol