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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/17 in Posts

  1. 13 points
    "vortex, i've got a feeling we're not in greenland anymore...."
  2. 5 points
    Final value 12.4 C (rounded from 12.35, it dropped like an Ed Stone (congrats to winner). (these facts hidden behind curtain in the website, rounding confirmed from monthly rankings) 13th warmest October, first time 12.4 has occurred.
  3. 5 points
    We have trouble brewing in the Alps for Sunday and into the following week. Classic freeze thaw conditions with freezing level this coming weekend ranging from 3000m down to 1500m. An active front has been forecast to stall over the Alps with copious amounts of rainfall. We in our location have a fine mesh model prediction of 26mm during Sunday which could turn back to snowfall. Cold air under cutting warm air above makes for Genoa Cyclonenis likely. This is shown on the ECM models out into next week with further pulses of heavy rainfall probably heaviest on Thursday before the energy slowly dissipates. A nightmare scenario for our piste preparation planners with freeze /thaw conditions and lots of precipitation.
  4. 5 points
    Not complete agreement between last night's anomalies but I suspect it may be down to timing. Upstream not a problem with the Aleutian/Alaska ridge, vortex N. Canada and associated trough orientated south east to the north west of the UK. Thus a strong upper flow to the south of the latter but at the coal face to the west of the UK the flow splits thanks to pressure from the Azores pushing north and the influence of the trough to the south. The det runs need to decide the detail on how this pans out but the percentage play would appear to be increasing influence of the HP in the southern half of the country and more changeable in the north,,Temps a tad below average but a fair diurnal variation. Meanwhile back at the farm high pressure still in charge thus a largely quiet day with sunny intervals after morning cloud and fog has cleared for most of England and Wales. A bit more cloud in the far north of England and N. Ireland but central Scotland is the problem area with a slow moving front, persistent rain and quite windy. The north of Scotland brighter with showers, Tomorrow cloudy with sunny intervals for most but more persistent cloud in the Midlands as the front slowly tacking south fizzles out. The ridging on Thursday is quickly shunted away on Friday st the upper trough to the NW joins forces with the cut off low to the south and by 12 Saturday a surface fronts has tracked east across the southern half of country bringing rain with it. After the passage of the front and the main trough to the north the Azores once more pushes NE of the UK on Sunday giving a pretty dry bonfire evening. But the high now comes under massive pressure from a deep trough the north west (the scenario mentioned at the beginning of the post perhaps beginning to unfold) and surface fronts are slowly pushing south east across the country by 00 Tuesday. The front(s) quickly clear to the east but after some brief ridging the next trough has tracked quickly east to be north of Scotland by 12 Thursday with associated fronts and strong winds impacting most of the UK. It can be seen from this, only IMO of course, how important the interaction of the Azores and the energy pushing east is in determining the detail of the weather over the UK and that this is a long way from being resolved next week.
  5. 4 points
    Whether it comes off or not, still nice to see some snow cover prognosis for Mid November on this latest GFS run for parts of Northern Britain. C
  6. 4 points
    Some bizarre goings on this morning with the ECM which seems to have been at a Halloween party. It quickly develops high pressure to the ne and isn’t supported by either the GFS or UKMO although the GEM seems to have been at the same party . We’ve seen some outlandish outputs from it over recent winters but generally these start showing up post T168 hrs but the changes here start around T120hrs.
  7. 4 points
  8. 4 points
    Te key issue for me as to how this pans out remains the precise interaction and orientation of the three main players in our neck of the woods,The HP in the east and in particular the trough to the NW and the Azores to the south west I can't post the EPS 7-12 anomaly but it makes more of the Azores ridging NE than the GEFS so the percentage play, for me, remains an increasing likelihood of settled weather in the southern half of the UK in the medium term. But really it's all only a minor adjustment away from upper westerlies and the proverbial N/S split
  9. 4 points
    Table of entries (on time portion) at this location: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.
  10. 4 points
    Tonight’s ECM continues to fragment and move the PV with signs of an Arctic high forming ne of Svalbard. Although we’re not seeing a straightforward route to something more interesting if you like colder weather if the models are reluctant to limpet the PV over Greenland it does leave the door open.
  11. 4 points
  12. 3 points
    I was about to post the following charts when I saw the two posts above describing the marked difference between the ECM and the GFS in the 8 - 10 day period. Still, it doesn't hurt to repeat this message because it will be interesting to watch them develop and see which model gets nearest to the actual conditions..... . ECM. GFS +168 +192 +216 +240. . Best thing for me about both these sets of predictions is the lack of a raging Atlantic influence which should mean considerably less rain for western parts than has lately been the case.
  13. 3 points
    And right on cue the ecm differs from the gfs quite drastically next week, well initially. Midnight Weds it has a renewed bout of amplification with high pressure surging north over Scandinavia and in mid Atlantic which disrupts the trough just to the west of the UK. This establishes low pressure to the south of the UK and allows the Azores to ridge NE/E over the top as the Scandinavian ridge is flattened by the east bound energy to the north. Another variation on the theme.
  14. 2 points
    Looks like 3 daily records too, 17.2, 16.4 and 14.9C on the 14th, 16th and 25th respectively.
  15. 2 points
    Both Caingorm and Glencoe will have snow making tackle to keep a run going year round this coming season going off reports on the net. Hopefully something we won't need this season..
  16. 2 points
    The report below was published in the French media yesterday (31 Oct) and gives an insight into the impact of recent weather trends on the glaciers of the Swiss Alps. Uncomfortable reading I'm afraid. As with other Alpine countries, Switzerland offers year-round winter sports on several glaciers including the Titlis glacier at Engelberg, the Theodul glacier at Zermatt and the Allalin glacier at Saas-Fee. It would appear that even these 'ultimate' high level resorts are not immune to longer-term climate trends. Let's hope the coming winter provides some much needed relief for all Alpine glaciers. Swiss glaciers lost 1.5 billion cubic meters this year 1.5 billion m³ less ice on Swiss glaciers in 2016-2017. To hear the gross figure is scary. Putting it in perspective is no less so. The Swiss Academy of Sciences, which published its report yesterday, estimated that this amounted to "a quantity of water that would allow every household in the country to fill a 25-meter pool. If the Swiss are only 8.5 million, and the number of households is lower, it still describes well the annus horribilis lived by the glaciers, which globally lost 3% of volume. This hydrological year also ranks in the three worst of the century, just after 2003 and at about the same level as 2011. The glaciers between the western part of the Bernese Oberland and the Valais (Tsanfleuron, the Plaine Morte or even the Griesgletscher) have suffered the greatest losses, a decrease in average ice thickness of 2 to 3 meters, which is huge according to scientists. Those a little less exposed, like that of the Rhone, do not escape the phenomenon with a meter less. The cause is obviously to be found in the drought and the absence of precipitation of this last year. The volume of mass is an immediate witness of the weather conditions, unlike the length of the glaciers. If this criterion seems the most obvious sign of global warming, it is actually delayed. The effects of the very hot and very dry years will only be seen in a few decades for the average glaciers. Full report in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/haute-savoie/2017/10/31/les-glaciers-suisses-ont-perdu-1-5-milliard-de-m3-cette-annee
  17. 2 points
    Yes ecm is quite different to gfs and more preferable.
  18. 2 points
    Happy Halloween Everyone. The weather charts in the days ahead show a rather blocky pressure pattern so little rain for southern Britain the worst of the unsettled conditions in the north ,but on the other side of the coin temperatures will dip down below average for just about all with "frequent" bouts of frost mist and fog at some point in the next ten days ......Proper November weather
  19. 1 point
    Morning yes little disappointed with weather for next week or so but as bobbydog says earlier vortex a key player so maybe by mid November things will change to our coldies favour let's see what models bring us today in later stages surely us coldies deserve a 3 Month blizzard
  20. 1 point
    My reaction to GFS FI winter charts every year....
  21. 1 point
    I would expect a covering for bonfire night over the more Western areas !
  22. 1 point
    This is my prediction: -Cold -Snow. -Blizzards.
  23. 1 point
    winter has duly arrived here...tis snowing not too bad..before the real cold kicks in overnight....thereafter we are into minus double digits for a while..dont expect to see much in the way plus double digits until April next year.
  24. 1 point
    Reports on the interweb say there is a covering of snow in parts of the Caingorms and Nevis Range.
  25. 1 point
    Feeling more 'classic' this season with a near-average strength vortex that should resist warming events sufficiently for troposphere-stratosphere transfer to potentially (with enough supply) continue until the warming is large enough to have a more significant impact on the vortex, which is preferable to a dishevelled mess of a vortex that just gets displaced by even minor warming (the situation last Oct-Nov), messing up the troposphere-stratosphere transfer mechanisms, and can happily wait for support from the upper stratosphere to kick off big time (last Dec). Overall this should translate to less of immediate/short-term interest but more during the winter itself. Whether sufficient warming will actually manifest, remains to be seen.
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