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"vortex, i've got a feeling we're not in greenland anymore...."

Stop press split vortex in November... rare as hens teeth.... S

Just flicking through the earlier outputs and i can't anything untoward lurking in the woodshed. It is starting to look more like proper Autumn though now.Not yet the really stormy side of the season but over the next week or so a gradual move south of the polar front with colder air more involved for the UK.The balmy and mild southerlies seem to be off the menu for now as we see the affects of the expanding Greenland trough sending the jet into our locale. We seem to be looking at a rather changeable west to east flow,with switching between something colder before we see a return to more normal temperatures before the next fronts approach.This rather mobile pattern looks set to continue into week 2 although this could be tempered somewhat by any expansive ridging from the Azores high, especially further south. As an aside a number of the gef stamps for day 10 show such a scenario, even linking up with heights further ne. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 currently a minority solution but with the ECM suite also toying with +ve ht anomalies in these areas maybe something of interest down the line.and whilst we are waiting to see if Zonal winds show their usual pick up by late November. For this week then a glance at the UKMO model shows the changing conditions spreading during the coming days the fronts more active further north at present gradually easing south by the weekend. The London ens graphs Showing the dip in temperatures and step up in rainfall around the 4/5th Nov as the colder air comes south.

Whilst the current extended output is not without interest, it is too early to be over analysing it from a coldie perspective. I would observe that a continued shallow mean trough over Europe to our south keeps us 'on standby' as we approach winter proper.

The UKMO 12Z run has a stronger jet running through the UK as we head into the medium range than the GFS does but both models do have a similar overall pattern but they are probably not all that far off from what the ECM is sho really but as been mentioned before, the ECM models has an over amplification bias which gets more noticetable as it goes further on in the output. For now, I would rather take the UKMO output because of the season we are in, an easterly does not appeal to me at the moment especially as any cold air looks quite weak and the Arctic is not forecast to have a particularly strong PV developing anytime soon. Looking forward to a chilly weekend, hopefully that ripple in the weather front clears quickly on Saturday so everyone is in that clean fresh polar air with frost and perhaps fog more of a potential going into Sunday night.

Here we go again eh? Perhaps. Seems the silly season is starting to kick into gear. Prepare to be teased as usual - but it's about time something actually came off so here's hoping. It is best though not to set the bar too high, and just to enjoy the more entertaining charts as and when they come . It is true to say, though, that I have had one eyebrow inching upward at times today.

Final value 12.4 C (rounded from 12.35, it dropped like an Ed Stone (congrats to winner). (these facts hidden behind curtain in the website, rounding confirmed from monthly rankings) 13th warmest October, first time 12.4 has occurred.

We have trouble brewing in the Alps for Sunday and into the following week. Classic freeze thaw conditions with freezing level this coming weekend ranging from 3000m down to 1500m. An active front has been forecast to stall over the Alps with copious amounts of rainfall. We in our location have a fine mesh model prediction of 26mm during Sunday which could turn back to snowfall. Cold air under cutting warm air above makes for Genoa Cyclonenis likely. This is shown on the ECM models out into next week with further pulses of heavy rainfall probably heaviest on Thursday before the energy slowly dissipates. A nightmare scenario for our piste preparation planners with freeze /thaw conditions and lots of precipitation.

Not complete agreement between last night's anomalies but I suspect it may be down to timing. Upstream not a problem with the Aleutian/Alaska ridge, vortex N. Canada and associated trough orientated south east to the north west of the UK. Thus a strong upper flow to the south of the latter but at the coal face to the west of the UK the flow splits thanks to pressure from the Azores pushing north and the influence of the trough to the south. The det runs need to decide the detail on how this pans out but the percentage play would appear to be increasing influence of the HP in the southern half of the country and more changeable in the north,,Temps a tad below average but a fair diurnal variation. Meanwhile back at the farm high pressure still in charge thus a largely quiet day with sunny intervals after morning cloud and fog has cleared for most of England and Wales. A bit more cloud in the far north of England and N. Ireland but central Scotland is the problem area with a slow moving front, persistent rain and quite windy. The north of Scotland brighter with showers, Tomorrow cloudy with sunny intervals for most but more persistent cloud in the Midlands as the front slowly tacking south fizzles out. The ridging on Thursday is quickly shunted away on Friday st the upper trough to the NW joins forces with the cut off low to the south and by 12 Saturday a surface fronts has tracked east across the southern half of country bringing rain with it. After the passage of the front and the main trough to the north the Azores once more pushes NE of the UK on Sunday giving a pretty dry bonfire evening. But the high now comes under massive pressure from a deep trough the north west (the scenario mentioned at the beginning of the post perhaps beginning to unfold) and surface fronts are slowly pushing south east across the country by 00 Tuesday. The front(s) quickly clear to the east but after some brief ridging the next trough has tracked quickly east to be north of Scotland by 12 Thursday with associated fronts and strong winds impacting most of the UK. It can be seen from this, only IMO of course, how important the interaction of the Azores and the energy pushing east is in determining the detail of the weather over the UK and that this is a long way from being resolved next week.

Whether it comes off or not, still nice to see some snow cover prognosis for Mid November on this latest GFS run for parts of Northern Britain. C

Some bizarre goings on this morning with the ECM which seems to have been at a Halloween party. It quickly develops high pressure to the ne and isn’t supported by either the GFS or UKMO although the GEM seems to have been at the same party . We’ve seen some outlandish outputs from it over recent winters but generally these start showing up post T168 hrs but the changes here start around T120hrs.

Winter's coming

Te key issue for me as to how this pans out remains the precise interaction and orientation of the three main players in our neck of the woods,The HP in the east and in particular the trough to the NW and the Azores to the south west I can't post the EPS 7-12 anomaly but it makes more of the Azores ridging NE than the GEFS so the percentage play, for me, remains an increasing likelihood of settled weather in the southern half of the UK in the medium term. But really it's all only a minor adjustment away from upper westerlies and the proverbial N/S split

Table of entries (on time portion) at this location: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.

Tonight’s ECM continues to fragment and move the PV with signs of an Arctic high forming ne of Svalbard. Although we’re not seeing a straightforward route to something more interesting if you like colder weather if the models are reluctant to limpet the PV over Greenland it does leave the door open.

Treat!!!

Taking cursory glances at the models over the past week or so.. but now able to comment more.. Both ECM and GFS quite similiar in their output for the foreseeable future - a generally weak meridional mobile flow, with the jet taking a more NW-SE alignment, sending troughs on a NW-SE trajectory and locking most of the UK on the colder side of the jet more than on the milder side - so quite a change to conditions in October when we were firmly locked on the milder side. What this means is a rather seasonal feel to things, drier than normal, with frost and fog on the cards, and plenty of sunshine especially in the south - very pleasant overall despite temps probably coming in average at best in the south, a bit colder than normal in the north, Friday night may bring some heavy rain to central parts, but other than that frontal activity looks fairly weak away from the NW. Northern high ground likely to receive first dustings of snow of the season. Longer term - ECM suggesting heights building to the NE, and lower pressure over southern Europe. Much will depend on how far the trough digs into Europe, but there are signs it wants to head SE as opposed to east towards scandi, which would help aid the ridging and building of heights west out of Russia. From a personal perspective, its a very pleasing outlook, November can be a grim wet damp dark month, but this year at least it looks like starting on a much drier sunnier and crisper note..

Quite a few ecm ensembles go cold in the 10 day plus range, especially the control run.

The anomalies this evening are not without interest. Upstream perhaps some intensification of the vortex N. Canada and slight realignment of the associated trough SE to the UK which is also equated with the renewed amplification in NW Europe and the eastern Atlantic. Thus we have stronger Scandinavian ridging and the trough digging further south to the low pressure in the Mediterranean region. This emphasises the weakening and split flow in the eastern Atlantic particularly if the Azores pushes north in mid Atlantic. This portends some interesting surface detail for the det runs to sort with any west-east movement restricted and a slack low pressure area to the south of the UK Not forgetting that energy is still winging east just to the north. There would appear to be no significant change to this pattern in the 10-14 day period so we could quite possibly be looking at a period of fairly benign dry weather with temps a little below average, certainly in the southern half of the UK

That trend to send colder air and lower pressure into S Europe is gaining speed. Doesn't mean anything at the moment but it is a potential building block towards High Pressure to its north. I'm tempted to trust the models more on this - I feel verification of this type of scenario is better than the N Atlantic heights one.

These two gems from December 1981

Can confirm, in Slovakia we had our first usual October snowfall on Monday above 600m, in the North, East and North West, this time I was lucky enough to have been there on a long weekend,got my first winter fix already.pictures taken from village called Dedinky, in Slovak Paradise nat. Park, some location around 1300-1500m already got 70cms from last 48hr snowfall, quite interesting that High Tatras seem to be among the very first locations to receive significant snow in the whole Europe last couple of years!

I was about to post the following charts when I saw the two posts above describing the marked difference between the ECM and the GFS in the 8 - 10 day period. Still, it doesn't hurt to repeat this message because it will be interesting to watch them develop and see which model gets nearest to the actual conditions..... . ECM. GFS +168 +192 +216 +240. . Best thing for me about both these sets of predictions is the lack of a raging Atlantic influence which should mean considerably less rain for western parts than has lately been the case.

And right on cue the ecm differs from the gfs quite drastically next week, well initially. Midnight Weds it has a renewed bout of amplification with high pressure surging north over Scandinavia and in mid Atlantic which disrupts the trough just to the west of the UK. This establishes low pressure to the south of the UK and allows the Azores to ridge NE/E over the top as the Scandinavian ridge is flattened by the east bound energy to the north. Another variation on the theme.

Never to early

Interesting end to the gfs coming up.

now now gentlemen lets be sensible.

I had 8 inches in August

Winter Pete ☺ Just don't mention Seagulls...

Had some geese pass over mine the other day to, Always a good sign.

That's the super duperehawks round here. Ooh, nice birds, say the tourists, who feed them chips. Idiots. It rained again today. Drizzle, then a shower or two, then some heavy stuff.

Put your burning candles right next to your nylon net curtains ... After many years of mild winters, have to wonder if we will see winter weather like that again...

A messy GFS 06hrs run but the key trend is the fragmenting PV and reluctance to stick a foreboding tightly coiled PV to the north . Perhaps the ECM is into something , I’m wondering whether we’re seeing some reaction to the MJO, last weeks global tropics hazards outlook mentioned the chance this could impact the long wave pattern in the USA. As mentioned earlier in the thread by BA signs of lower heights over mainland Europe which does help deliver something colder.

Looks like 3 daily records too, 17.2, 16.4 and 14.9C on the 14th, 16th and 25th respectively.

Both Caingorm and Glencoe will have snow making tackle to keep a run going year round this coming season going off reports on the net. Hopefully something we won't need this season..

The report below was published in the French media yesterday (31 Oct) and gives an insight into the impact of recent weather trends on the glaciers of the Swiss Alps. Uncomfortable reading I'm afraid. As with other Alpine countries, Switzerland offers year-round winter sports on several glaciers including the Titlis glacier at Engelberg, the Theodul glacier at Zermatt and the Allalin glacier at Saas-Fee. It would appear that even these 'ultimate' high level resorts are not immune to longer-term climate trends. Let's hope the coming winter provides some much needed relief for all Alpine glaciers. Swiss glaciers lost 1.5 billion cubic meters this year 1.5 billion m³ less ice on Swiss glaciers in 2016-2017. To hear the gross figure is scary. Putting it in perspective is no less so. The Swiss Academy of Sciences, which published its report yesterday, estimated that this amounted to "a quantity of water that would allow every household in the country to fill a 25-meter pool. If the Swiss are only 8.5 million, and the number of households is lower, it still describes well the annus horribilis lived by the glaciers, which globally lost 3% of volume. This hydrological year also ranks in the three worst of the century, just after 2003 and at about the same level as 2011. The glaciers between the western part of the Bernese Oberland and the Valais (Tsanfleuron, the Plaine Morte or even the Griesgletscher) have suffered the greatest losses, a decrease in average ice thickness of 2 to 3 meters, which is huge according to scientists. Those a little less exposed, like that of the Rhone, do not escape the phenomenon with a meter less. The cause is obviously to be found in the drought and the absence of precipitation of this last year. The volume of mass is an immediate witness of the weather conditions, unlike the length of the glaciers. If this criterion seems the most obvious sign of global warming, it is actually delayed. The effects of the very hot and very dry years will only be seen in a few decades for the average glaciers. Full report in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/haute-savoie/2017/10/31/les-glaciers-suisses-ont-perdu-1-5-milliard-de-m3-cette-annee

Yes ecm is quite different to gfs and more preferable.

Happy Halloween Everyone. The weather charts in the days ahead show a rather blocky pressure pattern so little rain for southern Britain the worst of the unsettled conditions in the north ,but on the other side of the coin temperatures will dip down below average for just about all with "frequent" bouts of frost mist and fog at some point in the next ten days ......Proper November weather

Rather plump

As suggested by recent meto updates drier towards the SE as the jet fires away to our North so pretty much a contiunation of the mind numbing pattern that persisted through the summer..ie the NW gets the majority of the wet stuff.

Indeed. Looking at the Ben Nevis forecast from the Met Office there should be a decent covering on top of the mountain before the weekend is out. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt Ben Macdui also getting some more snow cover as well. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjkst9nc

Always go with your heart

Thanks Amy, we don't tend to rely on the GFS here in the UK, because as you inferred , it really is , and always has been "All over the map" Knocker seems to like your posts/tweets or whatever they are though, so that's nice.

Indeed- a cold North westerly should provide snow for scottish mountains as we hit the weekend

I would expect a covering for bonfire night over the more Western areas !

4th mild Halloween in a row. 2014 18.3c ,warmest ive recorded, 2015 15.9c, 2016 14.0c, today 13.6c. So the last 3 being colder then the year before though today just slightly colder then last yr . Maybe i will get a cold halloween in about 10 years time at this rate lol. My last average halloween was 2013 12.2c.

I have ordered two coats for my birthday, so that's any snow buggered up sorry folks. Merry Christmas*hides till spring*

Quite a surprise to see this mornings ECM develop more amplification over the USA and Canada which then allows some ridging to develop to the nw with suggestions of a north/nw flow after day ten. The models do seem to be trying to move the PV away from Greenland which would be a positive sign for coldies but this is into the less reliable timeframe. NCEP will be updating their monthly forecast for the USA later and that could provide some pointers as to how that upstream pattern could effect us here in western Europe.

not sure about a polar low, (you'll be quoted in the Express tomorrow!) but if charts like that keep coming, it'll put some smiles on the faces of us 'coldies'...

Reports on the interweb say there is a covering of snow in parts of the Caingorms and Nevis Range.