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Showing most liked content on 01/11/17 in all areas

  1. 12 likes
    Stop press split vortex in November... rare as hens teeth.... S
  2. 11 likes
    Just flicking through the earlier outputs and i can't anything untoward lurking in the woodshed. It is starting to look more like proper Autumn though now.Not yet the really stormy side of the season but over the next week or so a gradual move south of the polar front with colder air more involved for the UK.The balmy and mild southerlies seem to be off the menu for now as we see the affects of the expanding Greenland trough sending the jet into our locale. We seem to be looking at a rather changeable west to east flow,with switching between something colder before we see a return to more normal temperatures before the next fronts approach.This rather mobile pattern looks set to continue into week 2 although this could be tempered somewhat by any expansive ridging from the Azores high, especially further south. As an aside a number of the gef stamps for day 10 show such a scenario, even linking up with heights further ne. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 currently a minority solution but with the ECM suite also toying with +ve ht anomalies in these areas maybe something of interest down the line.and whilst we are waiting to see if Zonal winds show their usual pick up by late November. For this week then a glance at the UKMO model shows the changing conditions spreading during the coming days the fronts more active further north at present gradually easing south by the weekend. The London ens graphs Showing the dip in temperatures and step up in rainfall around the 4/5th Nov as the colder air comes south.
  3. 10 likes
    Whilst the current extended output is not without interest, it is too early to be over analysing it from a coldie perspective. I would observe that a continued shallow mean trough over Europe to our south keeps us 'on standby' as we approach winter proper.
  4. 7 likes
    The UKMO 12Z run has a stronger jet running through the UK as we head into the medium range than the GFS does but both models do have a similar overall pattern but they are probably not all that far off from what the ECM is sho really but as been mentioned before, the ECM models has an over amplification bias which gets more noticetable as it goes further on in the output. For now, I would rather take the UKMO output because of the season we are in, an easterly does not appeal to me at the moment especially as any cold air looks quite weak and the Arctic is not forecast to have a particularly strong PV developing anytime soon. Looking forward to a chilly weekend, hopefully that ripple in the weather front clears quickly on Saturday so everyone is in that clean fresh polar air with frost and perhaps fog more of a potential going into Sunday night.
  5. 6 likes
    Here we go again eh? Perhaps. Seems the silly season is starting to kick into gear. Prepare to be teased as usual - but it's about time something actually came off so here's hoping. It is best though not to set the bar too high, and just to enjoy the more entertaining charts as and when they come . It is true to say, though, that I have had one eyebrow inching upward at times today.
  6. 5 likes
    Not complete agreement between last night's anomalies but I suspect it may be down to timing. Upstream not a problem with the Aleutian/Alaska ridge, vortex N. Canada and associated trough orientated south east to the north west of the UK. Thus a strong upper flow to the south of the latter but at the coal face to the west of the UK the flow splits thanks to pressure from the Azores pushing north and the influence of the trough to the south. The det runs need to decide the detail on how this pans out but the percentage play would appear to be increasing influence of the HP in the southern half of the country and more changeable in the north,,Temps a tad below average but a fair diurnal variation. Meanwhile back at the farm high pressure still in charge thus a largely quiet day with sunny intervals after morning cloud and fog has cleared for most of England and Wales. A bit more cloud in the far north of England and N. Ireland but central Scotland is the problem area with a slow moving front, persistent rain and quite windy. The north of Scotland brighter with showers, Tomorrow cloudy with sunny intervals for most but more persistent cloud in the Midlands as the front slowly tacking south fizzles out. The ridging on Thursday is quickly shunted away on Friday st the upper trough to the NW joins forces with the cut off low to the south and by 12 Saturday a surface fronts has tracked east across the southern half of country bringing rain with it. After the passage of the front and the main trough to the north the Azores once more pushes NE of the UK on Sunday giving a pretty dry bonfire evening. But the high now comes under massive pressure from a deep trough the north west (the scenario mentioned at the beginning of the post perhaps beginning to unfold) and surface fronts are slowly pushing south east across the country by 00 Tuesday. The front(s) quickly clear to the east but after some brief ridging the next trough has tracked quickly east to be north of Scotland by 12 Thursday with associated fronts and strong winds impacting most of the UK. It can be seen from this, only IMO of course, how important the interaction of the Azores and the energy pushing east is in determining the detail of the weather over the UK and that this is a long way from being resolved next week.
  7. 4 likes
    While reality this has always been the case. However the paranoia of the remainers is reaching frightening proportions.
  8. 4 likes
    An average winter would seem cold. Now that the rain is clearing south (right in the pic) it's cooler, nice evening but shame about the bugs. Edit: I am walking the dog posting the above when all these geese fly past, hundreds upon hundreds of them. Only got my phone but the faint black lines are geese and more geese. And one last photo of nothing more than pretty colours in the sky:
  9. 4 likes
    Table of entries (on time portion) at this location: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.
  10. 4 likes
    Tonight’s ECM continues to fragment and move the PV with signs of an Arctic high forming ne of Svalbard. Although we’re not seeing a straightforward route to something more interesting if you like colder weather if the models are reluctant to limpet the PV over Greenland it does leave the door open.
  11. 4 likes
  12. 3 likes
    Taking cursory glances at the models over the past week or so.. but now able to comment more.. Both ECM and GFS quite similiar in their output for the foreseeable future - a generally weak meridional mobile flow, with the jet taking a more NW-SE alignment, sending troughs on a NW-SE trajectory and locking most of the UK on the colder side of the jet more than on the milder side - so quite a change to conditions in October when we were firmly locked on the milder side. What this means is a rather seasonal feel to things, drier than normal, with frost and fog on the cards, and plenty of sunshine especially in the south - very pleasant overall despite temps probably coming in average at best in the south, a bit colder than normal in the north, Friday night may bring some heavy rain to central parts, but other than that frontal activity looks fairly weak away from the NW. Northern high ground likely to receive first dustings of snow of the season. Longer term - ECM suggesting heights building to the NE, and lower pressure over southern Europe. Much will depend on how far the trough digs into Europe, but there are signs it wants to head SE as opposed to east towards scandi, which would help aid the ridging and building of heights west out of Russia. From a personal perspective, its a very pleasing outlook, November can be a grim wet damp dark month, but this year at least it looks like starting on a much drier sunnier and crisper note..
  13. 3 likes
    I was about to post the following charts when I saw the two posts above describing the marked difference between the ECM and the GFS in the 8 - 10 day period. Still, it doesn't hurt to repeat this message because it will be interesting to watch them develop and see which model gets nearest to the actual conditions..... . ECM. GFS +168 +192 +216 +240. . Best thing for me about both these sets of predictions is the lack of a raging Atlantic influence which should mean considerably less rain for western parts than has lately been the case.
  14. 3 likes
    And right on cue the ecm differs from the gfs quite drastically next week, well initially. Midnight Weds it has a renewed bout of amplification with high pressure surging north over Scandinavia and in mid Atlantic which disrupts the trough just to the west of the UK. This establishes low pressure to the south of the UK and allows the Azores to ridge NE/E over the top as the Scandinavian ridge is flattened by the east bound energy to the north. Another variation on the theme.
  15. 2 likes
    Best wishes to your wife for a speedy recovery Dave.
  16. 2 likes
  17. 2 likes
    Had some geese pass over mine the other day to, Always a good sign.
  18. 2 likes
    That's the super duperehawks round here. Ooh, nice birds, say the tourists, who feed them chips. Idiots. It rained again today. Drizzle, then a shower or two, then some heavy stuff.
  19. 2 likes
    Put your burning candles right next to your nylon net curtains ... After many years of mild winters, have to wonder if we will see winter weather like that again...
  20. 2 likes
    Nothing probably. Of course the "remain commission is full of political placemen. Deflection, the main currency of Trumpettes and Brexiters alike. The leave campaign was awash with money from squalid and largely foreign extremists, with dark ambitions for the UK. They shouuld not be allowed to get away with it, but they will.
  21. 2 likes
    The areas where Question Time were held is academic - what is more important is the selection of the audience, the panels and the impartiality of the chair. During recent years Nigel Farage holds the position of having the highest number of average appearances at 1.7 pa. In more recent times there has been a tendency to allow full reign to the 'shouting' of leave supporters to the extent that arguments put forward by pro EU supporters has often been drowned out. Being that Brexit is a very emotional subject, especially for the leavers who were persuaded, mostly through emotion to their point of view and that emotion can make very good TV drama it is not surprising that the tendency goes in this direction but at the same time the media does, whether or not they realise it, have a moral duty to inform the public in an honest, balanced and fair manner. Sensationalism has taken the stage. Below is an old report being published in 2013 but there is no compelling evidence to show the position has been reversed since then - in fact there is a lot of truth in the adage that 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' - so if you consider that the government has control over the licence fees and that since the referendum the government has become pro Brexit, it follows that the BBC is obliged to mind its 'p's' and 'q's' to avoid biting the hand which feeds it and the amount, or lack of coverage given to pro EU matters in the news has been quite noticeable, though this may have been missed by yourself as a leaver. https://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-how-biased-bbc Overall: A win for Euroscepticism So what about the accusation that the BBC is pro-EU? Again the evidence points in the opposite direction. In each sample period, a single story was dominant in broadcast coverage. In 2007 it was the Lisbon Treaty, which accounted for 70% of coverage and in 2012 it was negotiations over ratifying the EU budget which accounted for 72% of coverage. In both cases the debate was dominated by the representatives of the two main parties and the EU was framed narrowly as a threat to British interests. In 2007 debate revolved around three points argued by Conservative Eurosceptics: that Britain hadn’t secured her “redlines” on maintaining British sovereignty; that the treaty was a repackaged version of the EU constitution; and that a referendum was necessary to ratify it. Labour contested these arguments. In 2012 the budget debate pitted the Conservative leadership (for the budget settlement) against the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party and Labour who opposed it. There are two points to be made about this coverage. First, it saw Europe almost exclusively through the prism of political infighting between Labour and the Conservatives so a rounded debate about the multiplicity of ways the relationship between the EU and UK affects Britain was almost completely absent. Second, although UKIP received very little airtime, Euroscepticism was very well represented through Conservative politicians. Voices arguing for the benefits of EU membership were very sparse. This was a consequence of Labour politicians being unwilling to make the positive case for Europe because of its perceived unpopularity amongst voters. This meant that business lobbyists provided much of what little pro-EU opinion was available.
  22. 2 likes
    A messy GFS 06hrs run but the key trend is the fragmenting PV and reluctance to stick a foreboding tightly coiled PV to the north . Perhaps the ECM is into something , I’m wondering whether we’re seeing some reaction to the MJO, last weeks global tropics hazards outlook mentioned the chance this could impact the long wave pattern in the USA. As mentioned earlier in the thread by BA signs of lower heights over mainland Europe which does help deliver something colder.
  23. 2 likes
    Both Caingorm and Glencoe will have snow making tackle to keep a run going year round this coming season going off reports on the net. Hopefully something we won't need this season..
  24. 2 likes
    The report below was published in the French media yesterday (31 Oct) and gives an insight into the impact of recent weather trends on the glaciers of the Swiss Alps. Uncomfortable reading I'm afraid. As with other Alpine countries, Switzerland offers year-round winter sports on several glaciers including the Titlis glacier at Engelberg, the Theodul glacier at Zermatt and the Allalin glacier at Saas-Fee. It would appear that even these 'ultimate' high level resorts are not immune to longer-term climate trends. Let's hope the coming winter provides some much needed relief for all Alpine glaciers. Swiss glaciers lost 1.5 billion cubic meters this year 1.5 billion m³ less ice on Swiss glaciers in 2016-2017. To hear the gross figure is scary. Putting it in perspective is no less so. The Swiss Academy of Sciences, which published its report yesterday, estimated that this amounted to "a quantity of water that would allow every household in the country to fill a 25-meter pool. If the Swiss are only 8.5 million, and the number of households is lower, it still describes well the annus horribilis lived by the glaciers, which globally lost 3% of volume. This hydrological year also ranks in the three worst of the century, just after 2003 and at about the same level as 2011. The glaciers between the western part of the Bernese Oberland and the Valais (Tsanfleuron, the Plaine Morte or even the Griesgletscher) have suffered the greatest losses, a decrease in average ice thickness of 2 to 3 meters, which is huge according to scientists. Those a little less exposed, like that of the Rhone, do not escape the phenomenon with a meter less. The cause is obviously to be found in the drought and the absence of precipitation of this last year. The volume of mass is an immediate witness of the weather conditions, unlike the length of the glaciers. If this criterion seems the most obvious sign of global warming, it is actually delayed. The effects of the very hot and very dry years will only be seen in a few decades for the average glaciers. Full report in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/haute-savoie/2017/10/31/les-glaciers-suisses-ont-perdu-1-5-milliard-de-m3-cette-annee
  25. 2 likes
    Happy Halloween Everyone. The weather charts in the days ahead show a rather blocky pressure pattern so little rain for southern Britain the worst of the unsettled conditions in the north ,but on the other side of the coin temperatures will dip down below average for just about all with "frequent" bouts of frost mist and fog at some point in the next ten days ......Proper November weather
  26. 1 like
    We'll probably get 50 reports containing 1 line in the style of, "The report concluded that Brexit will affect Agriculture".
  27. 1 like
    Early in the season for a pub run special !
  28. 1 like
  29. 1 like
    You mean Edmontonogosk
  30. 1 like
    I like the look of the cold sst's surrounding Italy. Surely that should aid in the development of our old friend the Genoa low through the coming winter.
  31. 1 like
    It must be the way you tell 'em!
  32. 1 like
    @bluearmy - thought you'd be interested in this - not unanimous but a growing number of ECM ensembles going for lower heights over Europe in the D10-D15 period? GEFS 00Z, similarly, has maybe 7 or 8 out of 22 members taking the low Europe heights route by D12. GFS 06Z is more or less a bullseye for cold by D16:
  33. 1 like
    It wasn't visible to me in the image I posted yesterday. The sun looked blank. Anyway, we will hopefully get an official spotless day tomorrow.
  34. 1 like
    Very interesting point but better veto could have saved lifes. If Britain had tougher laws the Manchester bomber who flew in and out of Britain to a known Terrorist state it could have been prevented. No questions asked we just let him walk amongst us and watched from a silly distance. But aye you keep living in your bubble.
  35. 1 like
    White noise from the arch Unionist Darling. The only way Scotland will have any control over immigration is via Indy.
  36. 1 like
  37. 1 like
    Indeed. Looking at the Ben Nevis forecast from the Met Office there should be a decent covering on top of the mountain before the weekend is out. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt Ben Macdui also getting some more snow cover as well. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjkst9nc
  38. 1 like
  39. 1 like
    Great to have a new thread started for the coming season Julian!! I'm quietly optimistic that this year the Alps will benefit from reasonably frequent polar maritime incursions into Europe this side of Christmas and that resorts will be ready to greet Christmas and New Year skiers/boarders. And to start the ball rolling, this weekend sees colder air bringing snowfall above 1500m for both the Alps and the Pyrenees. Charts for Sun 5th Nov: GFS 850hPa and precip Arpege snowfall accumulation
  40. 1 like
    What? Last seasons question time had 25 episodes. 22 were from remain areas I don't know were you get your ideas from mike ?
  41. 1 like
    4th mild Halloween in a row. 2014 18.3c ,warmest ive recorded, 2015 15.9c, 2016 14.0c, today 13.6c. So the last 3 being colder then the year before though today just slightly colder then last yr . Maybe i will get a cold halloween in about 10 years time at this rate lol. My last average halloween was 2013 12.2c.
  42. 1 like
    winter has duly arrived here...tis snowing not too bad..before the real cold kicks in overnight....thereafter we are into minus double digits for a while..dont expect to see much in the way plus double digits until April next year.
  43. 1 like
    Not even winter, and not even cold yet and I've heard people in the office (in London) moaning about how cold it is. Also saying how they "heard it was going to snow this week," obviously they read the Express. Same person then said "once it gets to 4 degrees then it can snow." Oh if it were that simple!
  44. 1 like
    Important to stress we've been here many many times before with charts of promise 10+ days away. That being said it's something to keep an eye on as we progress into November. Personally I prefer early cold ala 2010 as Feb and March cold doesn't interest me.
  45. 1 like
    Just to illustrate a trend that the models appear to be advertising, Heres the ECM ang GFS at 192 as it looks like the trop vortex is setting up shop in its usual location west of Greenland and no doubt ready to fire up the jet stream. However, By 240 ECM and a little later with the GFS , this process is quickly halted as it is very evident below that (a) the trop vortex is been shunted across the pole to the Siberian side or (b ) it just gets ripped apart anyway Either way it makes ridging into the vacant space a lot more likely and perhaps give our neck of the woods a good shot of an early bite of the cherry. We shall see !! Its good to know something may be lurking in the woodshed so early in the season.. .
  46. 1 like
    Reports on the interweb say there is a covering of snow in parts of the Caingorms and Nevis Range.
  47. 1 like
    https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/15529/2016/acp-16-15529-2016.pdf ""Based on the analysis of 108 years of QBO and climate variables from reconstructions as well as 4×405 years of data from climate model simulations, we came to the following conclusions: 1. There is no evidence that the extended QBO reconstruc- tion is out of phase with the true QBO, but further sup- port for the reconstructions is clearly required. 2. The relation between the QBO and climate variables is rather weak on average, but it is characterized by large multidecadal fluctuations. 3. In boreal winter, there are links between the QBO and the stratospheric polar vortex or between the QBO and Berlin SAT, but the former relation is typically strong when the latter is weak and vice versa (both in model and observations). This suggests a climatic origin of the decadal modulation (such as decadal latitudinal shifts of circulation). The relation to a more broadly defined Eurasian SAT index is more stable. 4. There is a weak but significant effect of the QBO on deep convection over the Pacific warm pool, mainly in boreal winter (an eastward shift of convection during easterly QBO in the lowermost stratosphere). Though significant, this change does not project strongly onto the Pacific Walker Circulation or ENSO. 5. Our results are consistent with historical literature and also with the sequence of discoveries of (quasi-)biennial imprints in weather and climate, as expected for analy- ses of small effects embedded within strong variability.""
  48. 0 likes
    Must be very isolated, i'm nw london and it's 10c
  49. 0 likes
    Was he the minister for groping? Och well, a move with opportunity, for Boris?
  50. 0 likes
    The above graph front Amy.It always seems to super dupere(rhymes with hight) on us in winter lol. Roll on a crap summer After 12 weeks of abysmal toss through Dec and Jan.
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