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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/17 in all areas

  1. "vortex, i've got a feeling we're not in greenland anymore...."
    13 points
  2. Stop press split vortex in November... rare as hens teeth.... S
    12 points
  3. Just flicking through the earlier outputs and i can't anything untoward lurking in the woodshed. It is starting to look more like proper Autumn though now.Not yet the really stormy side of the season but over the next week or so a gradual move south of the polar front with colder air more involved for the UK.The balmy and mild southerlies seem to be off the menu for now as we see the affects of the expanding Greenland trough sending the jet into our locale. We seem to be looking at a rather changeable west to east flow,with switching between something colder before we see a retu
    11 points
  4. Whilst the current extended output is not without interest, it is too early to be over analysing it from a coldie perspective. I would observe that a continued shallow mean trough over Europe to our south keeps us 'on standby' as we approach winter proper.
    10 points
  5. The UKMO 12Z run has a stronger jet running through the UK as we head into the medium range than the GFS does but both models do have a similar overall pattern but they are probably not all that far off from what the ECM is sho really but as been mentioned before, the ECM models has an over amplification bias which gets more noticetable as it goes further on in the output. For now, I would rather take the UKMO output because of the season we are in, an easterly does not appeal to me at the moment especially as any cold air looks quite weak and the Arctic is not forecast to have a particul
    7 points
  6. Here we go again eh? Perhaps. Seems the silly season is starting to kick into gear. Prepare to be teased as usual - but it's about time something actually came off so here's hoping. It is best though not to set the bar too high, and just to enjoy the more entertaining charts as and when they come . It is true to say, though, that I have had one eyebrow inching upward at times today.
    6 points
  7. Final value 12.4 C (rounded from 12.35, it dropped like an Ed Stone (congrats to winner). (these facts hidden behind curtain in the website, rounding confirmed from monthly rankings) 13th warmest October, first time 12.4 has occurred.
    5 points
  8. We have trouble brewing in the Alps for Sunday and into the following week. Classic freeze thaw conditions with freezing level this coming weekend ranging from 3000m down to 1500m. An active front has been forecast to stall over the Alps with copious amounts of rainfall. We in our location have a fine mesh model prediction of 26mm during Sunday which could turn back to snowfall. Cold air under cutting warm air above makes for Genoa Cyclonenis likely. This is shown on the ECM models out into next week with further pulses of heavy rainfall probably heaviest on Thursday before the energy slowly d
    5 points
  9. Not complete agreement between last night's anomalies but I suspect it may be down to timing. Upstream not a problem with the Aleutian/Alaska ridge, vortex N. Canada and associated trough orientated south east to the north west of the UK. Thus a strong upper flow to the south of the latter but at the coal face to the west of the UK the flow splits thanks to pressure from the Azores pushing north and the influence of the trough to the south. The det runs need to decide the detail on how this pans out but the percentage play would appear to be increasing influence of the HP in the southern
    5 points
  10. An average winter would seem cold. Now that the rain is clearing south (right in the pic) it's cooler, nice evening but shame about the bugs. Edit: I am walking the dog posting the above when all these geese fly past, hundreds upon hundreds of them. Only got my phone but the faint black lines are geese and more geese. And one last photo of nothing more than pretty colours in the sky:
    4 points
  11. Whether it comes off or not, still nice to see some snow cover prognosis for Mid November on this latest GFS run for parts of Northern Britain. C
    4 points
  12. Coming back to this story... Seems it was nothing and the police have concluded he's completely innocent; no changes to be brought. Can't say I'm surprised given the facts established at the time. If I was him, I'd see if he can e.g. chase his accuser for defamation. He's successfully done this a number of times when unionists have attempted to smear him with false accusations. EDIT I'm guessing BBC Scotland will make this the lead story on tonight's news given they did that when he was initially arrested.
    4 points
  13. Some bizarre goings on this morning with the ECM which seems to have been at a Halloween party. It quickly develops high pressure to the ne and isn’t supported by either the GFS or UKMO although the GEM seems to have been at the same party . We’ve seen some outlandish outputs from it over recent winters but generally these start showing up post T168 hrs but the changes here start around T120hrs.
    4 points
  14. Te key issue for me as to how this pans out remains the precise interaction and orientation of the three main players in our neck of the woods,The HP in the east and in particular the trough to the NW and the Azores to the south west I can't post the EPS 7-12 anomaly but it makes more of the Azores ridging NE than the GEFS so the percentage play, for me, remains an increasing likelihood of settled weather in the southern half of the UK in the medium term. But really it's all only a minor adjustment away from upper westerlies and the proverbial N/S split
    4 points
  15. Table of entries (on time portion) at this location: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.
    4 points
  16. Tonight’s ECM continues to fragment and move the PV with signs of an Arctic high forming ne of Svalbard. Although we’re not seeing a straightforward route to something more interesting if you like colder weather if the models are reluctant to limpet the PV over Greenland it does leave the door open.
    4 points
  17. Taking cursory glances at the models over the past week or so.. but now able to comment more.. Both ECM and GFS quite similiar in their output for the foreseeable future - a generally weak meridional mobile flow, with the jet taking a more NW-SE alignment, sending troughs on a NW-SE trajectory and locking most of the UK on the colder side of the jet more than on the milder side - so quite a change to conditions in October when we were firmly locked on the milder side. What this means is a rather seasonal feel to things, drier than normal, with frost and fog on the cards, and plenty
    3 points
  18. Quite a few ecm ensembles go cold in the 10 day plus range, especially the control run.
    3 points
  19. The anomalies this evening are not without interest. Upstream perhaps some intensification of the vortex N. Canada and slight realignment of the associated trough SE to the UK which is also equated with the renewed amplification in NW Europe and the eastern Atlantic. Thus we have stronger Scandinavian ridging and the trough digging further south to the low pressure in the Mediterranean region. This emphasises the weakening and split flow in the eastern Atlantic particularly if the Azores pushes north in mid Atlantic. This portends some interesting surface detail for the det runs to sort
    3 points
  20. That trend to send colder air and lower pressure into S Europe is gaining speed. Doesn't mean anything at the moment but it is a potential building block towards High Pressure to its north. I'm tempted to trust the models more on this - I feel verification of this type of scenario is better than the N Atlantic heights one.
    3 points
  21. 3 points
  22. Can confirm, in Slovakia we had our first usual October snowfall on Monday above 600m, in the North, East and North West, this time I was lucky enough to have been there on a long weekend,got my first winter fix already.pictures taken from village called Dedinky, in Slovak Paradise nat. Park, some location around 1300-1500m already got 70cms from last 48hr snowfall, quite interesting that High Tatras seem to be among the very first locations to receive significant snow in the whole Europe last couple of years!
    3 points
  23. Yes, I'm pleased for him that the obvious nonsense was dropped. It was just a juvenile and deeply cynical attempt to take the wind out of his sails with made up accusations. I assume they think that if you throw enough mud some of it will stick. Pretty desperate tactic tbh. Didn't want to comment until it was settled for obvious reasons but silly episodes like this do nothing for Unionists.
    3 points
  24. I was about to post the following charts when I saw the two posts above describing the marked difference between the ECM and the GFS in the 8 - 10 day period. Still, it doesn't hurt to repeat this message because it will be interesting to watch them develop and see which model gets nearest to the actual conditions..... . ECM. GFS +168 +192 +216 +240. . Best thing for me about both these sets of predictions is the lack of a raging Atlantic in
    3 points
  25. And right on cue the ecm differs from the gfs quite drastically next week, well initially. Midnight Weds it has a renewed bout of amplification with high pressure surging north over Scandinavia and in mid Atlantic which disrupts the trough just to the west of the UK. This establishes low pressure to the south of the UK and allows the Azores to ridge NE/E over the top as the Scandinavian ridge is flattened by the east bound energy to the north. Another variation on the theme.
    3 points
  26. Interesting end to the gfs coming up.
    2 points
  27. now now gentlemen lets be sensible.
    2 points
  28. I had 8 inches in August
    2 points
  29. In that case, who does deserve a fair trial? Surely, it is the right of all those resident in the UK to be granted such...Wasn't it stipulated in the Magna Carta? If a man with a beard can be sent to Guantanamo, why can't we? It only needs (as Stalinist Russia showed) one denouncer to do the deed...
    2 points
  30. 2 points
  31. Had some geese pass over mine the other day to, Always a good sign.
    2 points
  32. That's the super duperehawks round here. Ooh, nice birds, say the tourists, who feed them chips. Idiots. It rained again today. Drizzle, then a shower or two, then some heavy stuff.
    2 points
  33. Sorry.....way to far. But seriously what i struggle to get my head around is one nutter in Texas kills 59,what happens? Nothing. One nutter with a beard,shouting a Islamic saying kills 8 and all hell breaks,restrictions on movement of totally innocent folk,an attack on law and order in the US declared by the Ape(sorry) beating his chest. It's ok for the white nutter with a armoury of guns to kill,he has that right to bear arms but some nutter who happens to be nonwhite who is obviously deranged to do so results in the rhetoric we are hearing,everybody who even bares a resemblance in country of
    2 points
  34. Put your burning candles right next to your nylon net curtains ... After many years of mild winters, have to wonder if we will see winter weather like that again...
    2 points
  35. I think that just about sums it up. :-)
    2 points
  36. I think you have a total loss of understanding regarding this. Trump just wast isolationism,that will only breed resentment,restricting movement of innocent people on the pretence of stopping a tiny minority is basically crackers,just a Apes knee jerk reaction to make himself look powerful to his band of deranged pillocks who support him.
    2 points
  37. A messy GFS 06hrs run but the key trend is the fragmenting PV and reluctance to stick a foreboding tightly coiled PV to the north . Perhaps the ECM is into something , I’m wondering whether we’re seeing some reaction to the MJO, last weeks global tropics hazards outlook mentioned the chance this could impact the long wave pattern in the USA. As mentioned earlier in the thread by BA signs of lower heights over mainland Europe which does help deliver something colder.
    2 points
  38. Looks like 3 daily records too, 17.2, 16.4 and 14.9C on the 14th, 16th and 25th respectively.
    2 points
  39. Both Caingorm and Glencoe will have snow making tackle to keep a run going year round this coming season going off reports on the net. Hopefully something we won't need this season..
    2 points
  40. The report below was published in the French media yesterday (31 Oct) and gives an insight into the impact of recent weather trends on the glaciers of the Swiss Alps. Uncomfortable reading I'm afraid. As with other Alpine countries, Switzerland offers year-round winter sports on several glaciers including the Titlis glacier at Engelberg, the Theodul glacier at Zermatt and the Allalin glacier at Saas-Fee. It would appear that even these 'ultimate' high level resorts are not immune to longer-term climate trends. Let's hope the coming winter provides some much needed relief for all Alpine gl
    2 points
  41. Just waiting for Trump to use the terrible event in New York yesterday as proof that his ridiculous travel ban would have kept folk safe. He will use this,there is no doubt ,again showing what a cretin he is.
    2 points
  42. Yes ecm is quite different to gfs and more preferable.
    2 points
  43. Happy Halloween Everyone. The weather charts in the days ahead show a rather blocky pressure pattern so little rain for southern Britain the worst of the unsettled conditions in the north ,but on the other side of the coin temperatures will dip down below average for just about all with "frequent" bouts of frost mist and fog at some point in the next ten days ......Proper November weather
    2 points
  44. Probably get off if they did that. They'd be still smarting from the crusades.
    1 point
  45. Not even winter, and not even cold yet and I've heard people in the office (in London) moaning about how cold it is. Also saying how they "heard it was going to snow this week," obviously they read the Express. Same person then said "once it gets to 4 degrees then it can snow." Oh if it were that simple!
    1 point
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