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Genuine (snow potential) Northerly on the GFS 6z with disturbances, polar low alert even.

Really, not even this?

Following on from the above post, the 18z op is not the first run of recent days to be very trough disruptive re the Atlantic. this is a broad theme which played out for the second half of spring and first half of summer. It would bring a coldish and potentially snowy winter to nw Europe.

Tonight’s ECM continues to fragment and move the PV with signs of an Arctic high forming ne of Svalbard. Although we’re not seeing a straightforward route to something more interesting if you like colder weather if the models are reluctant to limpet the PV over Greenland it does leave the door open.

The high pressure currently situated to the south will slowly drift south east over the next couple of days. Today, south of the Midlands and including Wales, will be dry, with little wind and quite a few sunny intervals so temps quite good. This will continue tomorrow albeit perhaps with a little more cloud. Further north and N. Ireland will be more cloudy with perhaps the odd patch of rain. But western Scotland will have a very wet day with some quite large rainfall amounts and some of this rain will spread south and east tomorrow. And it will be quite windy in Scotland as the large depression tracks east to be west of Norway by 12 Wednesday with Scotland in the south west quadrant and thus a north westerly. By 12 Thursday the depression the slips south east into eastern Europe leaving an analysis with which we are all familiar. Troughs to the north west and the cut off low to the south west with high pressure ridging north east into the UK The strong thermal gradient running ENE just to the NW of Scotland. Over the next 48 hours pressure from this area relegates the ridge ridge south west and allows a weak front to track south east across the country bring light rain to most.and generally introduce a tad cooler air. From this point it gets a little more complicated. Under another bout of amplification the trough tracks east (not south east) and deconstructs creating another cut off low, and the Azores once again ridges north east but on this occasion all the way into Scandinavia leaving bonfire night dry with light winds Thus by the beginning of next week we have the major trough in the Greenland/Iceland area with the associated troughs struggling to make progress south east across Scotland This does eventually make it, facilitated in this endeavor I suspect, by the newly created trough to the south east. Over much of the UK during this period is influenced by relatively benign weather with temps varying around the average. The exception being western Scotland which could receive some quite significant rainfall totals.

eh? thats most of western europe looking pretty nippy there, and its well known that if the near continent is cold, then if we get winds from an easterly direction, we have something to feed on. never heard of the frequently mentioned "cold pool"?

mostly dry, chilly, foggy, frosty for most of us for a while- with a very interesting finale- and with still another 122 GFS runs until winter actually arrives, it could get even more interesting....

Happy Halloween Everyone. The weather charts in the days ahead show a rather blocky pressure pattern so little rain for southern Britain the worst of the unsettled conditions in the north ,but on the other side of the coin temperatures will dip down below average for just about all with "frequent" bouts of frost mist and fog at some point in the next ten days ......Proper November weather

Not even winter, and not even cold yet and I've heard people in the office (in London) moaning about how cold it is. Also saying how they "heard it was going to snow this week," obviously they read the Express. Same person then said "once it gets to 4 degrees then it can snow." Oh if it were that simple!

Just to illustrate a trend that the models appear to be advertising, Heres the ECM ang GFS at 192 as it looks like the trop vortex is setting up shop in its usual location west of Greenland and no doubt ready to fire up the jet stream. However, By 240 ECM and a little later with the GFS , this process is quickly halted as it is very evident below that (a) the trop vortex is been shunted across the pole to the Siberian side or (b ) it just gets ripped apart anyway Either way it makes ridging into the vacant space a lot more likely and perhaps give our neck of the woods a good shot of an early bite of the cherry. We shall see !! Its good to know something may be lurking in the woodshed so early in the season.. .

Purely going with my gut . I feel tht there's something different about this year. HP seems to be further north in the Atlantic than normal and there are suggestions that a ridge up to Greenlandor over to Scandi may beon the cards. It may all be wishful thinking though

Important to stress we've been here many many times before with charts of promise 10+ days away. That being said it's something to keep an eye on as we progress into November. Personally I prefer early cold ala 2010 as Feb and March cold doesn't interest me.

The tiny spots have disappeared and we have our first spotless day in a while.

Just to add to this thread - there will no doubt be another winter 'like' 1947/63 all be it moderated in terms of surface temps by probably about 0.5-1c. However because most of the flow is continental & the cold at the surface embedded then modification could be somewhat mitigated. So its a case of when instead of 'if' however we are talking in the context of within the next 50 years- Is it this one- well all I would say is the overall global drivers show a higher chance than ave of seeing something below normal- that's about as much detail as you can put on it at this stage.. All eyes on the zonal wind speed come mid Nov... S

On that note I am now ramping a white Christmas for many, maybe not Christmas day itself but just before or after would be great, I have never ramped about Christmas snow before, certainly not this early on but thats what this thread is for after all. November tomorrow, its now that the real fun starts for us snow hunting freaks! Looking forward to scenes like these:

well we ARE actually talking about mid november, so i don't see what the issue is. we are also talking about the far end of the GFS, which as we know, is highly unlikely to look anything like that by the time we actually reach that date. right now, its just a bit of fun and speculation... chill....

not sure about a polar low, (you'll be quoted in the Express tomorrow!) but if charts like that keep coming, it'll put some smiles on the faces of us 'coldies'...

Little bit of car scraping this morning here in Broughty Ferry. I’d put the air temp about +1c, it was -1c at Riverside. Lovely weekend walking in Perthshire, A mild windy Saturday and colder sunny Sunday!

Looking at this evening's GEFs 7-12 anomaly one can see where the det run is coming from. Upstream the vortex over N. Canada with the positively tilted tough across NE N America and the other associated trough orientated south east Greenland/Iceland area, Thus a strong upper flow running east south of Greenland where it is to some extent restricted due to the Azores high pressure pushing north in mid Atlantic. The also facilitates the split flow, which also abates, in the east thanks to the low pressure and slack gradient to the south of the UK. This should portend some quiet weather, perhaps as usual excluding the north, providing of course nothing nasty sneaks up from the south.

Treat!!!

Quite a surprise to see this mornings ECM develop more amplification over the USA and Canada which then allows some ridging to develop to the nw with suggestions of a north/nw flow after day ten. The models do seem to be trying to move the PV away from Greenland which would be a positive sign for coldies but this is into the less reliable timeframe. NCEP will be updating their monthly forecast for the USA later and that could provide some pointers as to how that upstream pattern could effect us here in western Europe.

Just had an amazing thunderstorm here myself, still banging and flashing.

not saying it won't happen but either way, the 06z puts europe in the freezer at the end and that would be good news for our winter.

Here is the latest snow and ice chart. Scandinavian snow has spread quite a bit in the last 24 hours.

And that's why comments about people aren't what this thread is for, it's for moaning/ramping about the models and the weather.

Loving the 10 day out look,single figures from Thursday on wards,perfect Autumn weather. Might even tempt me to stop wearing shorts!!..for a bit anyway.

Very mild here at 16.3'C! Wonder if the old wives' tale warm Halloween cold winter has anything to it? Let's hope so!

Quite chilled, but not in the freezer :-) Some members here have quicker access to models than me. When I see posts here saying into the freezer, I patiently wait for my sources to update and then imagine my surprise when there are no freezer conditions or anything even remotely close to it. Luckily, I have a good access to the models and I'm not half bad at reading them, but for other members, which this thread does attract at this time of year, into the freezer, to put it mildly, would be better left to the ramps thread, since it has no basis in what the models show, even with very liberal subjectivity. Anyway, I don't want to argue. The EPS weekly control shows something more interesting the second half of November for those looking for potential freezer temperatures :-)

I'm sure that October 2010 and 2012 had decent falls in Scandinavia, but that's all the evidence I have. I got this idea from members here discussing it, and also from Gavin's winter updates over the past few years. It's of course not the one thing that needs to materialise for us to have a cold winter, but I guess it tells us that the Atlantic is less zonal than it should be if there's snow there, or at least a more negative tilt to the jet towards NW Europe.

Nice thick blanket of snow here and still coming down with blizzard conditions, got 10 ft high drifts in places thanks to the howling easterly wind. Temp -5c wind chill -20

The updated ec46 is certainly not without interest - suspect the extended meto will give best guidance as to confidence in it. The predicted upper ridge in the Arctic n of the aleutians towards the end of the run indicates that current hemispheric patterns are not going to disappear as we head through December.

Like the increasingly southerly jet, with November continuing to look like a cold one on the whole. The Atlantic looks increasingly sluggish as well - An Easterly for late November perhaps?

2009 2010 believe it or not see Azores ridge through the UK the move up into Scandinavia although the real cold started with omega block in the Atlantic. Until I see the Atlantic sweeping through the whole of the UK with blow torch SW flow then I'd be concerned. But right now most of the activity is north so the Azores although pain in the butt can go from enemy to coldies friend. Great seeing the Atlantic being held of further south.

Maybe not 3 foot snow drifts but i did have 3 foot icicles hanging from the roof!

Nothing out of the ordinary for recent autumns that is true But very out of the ordinary with what autumn used to be. Wild and wet conditions interspersed with quieter, atmospheric foggy and frosty weather. Always something happening. Once a great season, autumn is now one long bore thanks to the inflated Azores Slug As I have said previously, exactly at the point when we're looking at the weather to do something, the Slug kills any interest. Forums like this are at the risk of dying a death because of weeks of nothingness Mods - feel free to move this to moan to another thread if you feel necessary but it is linked to what the models are showing PS - at least GFS looks interesting in lal la land I s'pose

One can dream i suppose,such a fantastic spell of weather..a repeat? Probably not to be honest but you never know. The kid like joy of opening the front door to a 3 foot snow drift and the shutting it quickly before it falls in brings out the child in anyone!

The ice is far more vital in my eyes. Constant ice growth is symptomatic of deep and lasting cold in the north. The snow, especially at this time of year, is transient at best in many areas. Hence my happiness with this year, far closer to the nigh mythical 2010 than it has been for a few years. No the snow and ice isn't evidence of a cold winter here, but it's part of the puzzle, and to me, the most fun bit.

It seems like only yesterday we were discussing another non-event winter and before you know it the fun season is fast approaching again. Now that I’ve come out of my hibernation I look forward to sharing all the inevitable drama in here over the next few months, not sure what my obsession will be this winter . For regulars not sure if I’m quite ready to drop my MJO fixation! In terms of today’s outputs the first signs of our nemesis setting up in its favourite place over Greenland but it could stay far enough to the west to allow some build of pressure to the east ne. Some brief interest develops around day 6 with a toppling ridge , the UKMO looks the coldest set up as it holds back the PV, the ECM pulls in a ne as the ridge topples. That timeframe could get a bit more interesting if a stronger ridge develops to the west nw but it’s almost certain that it will topple, so just depends how far north this can get into Scandi. Anyway nice to be back , fingers crossed that this winter can deliver something interesting.

The day the clocks go back marks the start of my favourite period of the year. From now until the end of January I can enjoy the very dark evenings, before they start to become noticeably later again.

Just model banter/moans please not members.

Now how does the song go now...ah yes: "That ole blue vortex has me in it's spell....tra la, tra la"

Reports on the interweb say there is a covering of snow in parts of the Caingorms and Nevis Range.

Although not surprisingly varying in detail the ecm is not a million miles from the gfs

A stunning day here with wall to wall sunshine it was great. It was nice yesterday on Dartmoor as well DD-12 by Richie C, on Flickr

I totally agree with you. In order to get the best possible chance of colder incursions especially from the north, ice concentration needs to be greater than it has been for the last few years

GFS 12z ensembles showing things cooling right down as we progress through November, a few colder and a few milder members but the mean tells the story. Pretty seasonal November coming up I'd say. London and Manchester.

Yes your area must do well from Northerlies and North Westerlies too. We do best here on an Easterly although they can be snowless events for much of the Uk, just producing snow flurries. Ideally its the fabled channel low that is required for a proper dump. Back in the 80's I remember there were a few winters where Atlantic Lows would try to shift the cold air over us producing lots of snow where they stalled as the the cold pushed back west, these days the cold is usually not well established enough and is shifted away pretty quickly.

November 2010 was exceptional around here too, didn't think it could get that cold from an easterly in November, lots of snow too. It just goes to show that November can deliver the goods, although its a much safer bet from around the 2nd week of December onwards. I would love to see a late November re-run, even a decent Northerly with some disturbances in the flow after about 20th November would be very welcome.

I notice the MOD thread has morphed seamlessly into it's winter persona of being a front for the winter thread.

I've never seen a white bonfire night before but have had a white Diwali once in Bradford (with a covering) back in the 90's.