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garden path? backtrack? misery?.... we have recurring modelling of wave 2 activity, throwing warm air into the arctic, battering the vortex at an important time in its development- and people are worried about missing out on a couple of sleet flurries in the midst of autumn?? reality check - this is great stuff to see. i like my snow in winter. 'deep and crisp and even' etc... and if these patterns keep showing up, we just might get some!

Very intriguing question. Firstly I will show the modelling in a different light, compared to the determ models. This is the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) model, which is actually a combo between GEFS and GEPS. Comparing it to EPS, provides a very useful outlook IMO, especially for longer range modelling. First the next 7 days worth of 500mb anomalies. Then the first 7 days of November. Big contrast between the ridge influence in Wk 1 and then the cold snap/trough coming over in Wk 2. Lots of others have pointed this out, but just showing it a little differently. Now for the question. The NAO is currently going into a negative phase. Beyond the 2-3rd Nov, it is expected to climb to positive neutral figures. I am not sure whether it is going to continue for a proper +NAO phase. The MJO is currently entering Phase 7. These phases (6+7) are deemed to the best for a -NAO(+10 days), which is occurring. The relationship with Scandi highs and Atlantic ridges and MJO is poor. EPS and GEFS (Bias-Corrected) MJO RMM plots above. The EPS shows a rapid decline to neutral MJO during Phase 7. GEFS shows a slower decline, entering the neutral realm at Phase 1. POAMA and the Canuck models agree with EPS, JMA is in between the main models. For longer range forecasts, the POAMA model provides a probabilistic (chance of MJO Phase) forecast for the MJO: For 11-15 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 3. For 16-20 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 1. For 21-25 Nov, 50-70% Neutral. For 26-30 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 2. Overall this means that MJO will likely remain neutral over November, and if it strengthens later in the month, it is likely to be in Phases 1-4. Which correlates with a +NAO(+10 days). So in my opinion, we may see a +NAO setup come around in the 2nd or 3rd weeks of November (emphasis on the may). But I haven't looked at the PV, or any other climate driver, except for the MJO and NAO, in proper detail. It's kinda rushed, because it's getting late night here in Aus. I will have a proper longer range look tomorrow, provided the forum doesn't crash .

Not without interest how the trop. vortex falls apart days 8-10 of the ECM 12z. Some very, eh, interesting discoveries while working today have got me paying more attention to this winter season at last. Most long-range models still seeing something different dominating the pattern forcing though, and it remains elusive as to what exactly. Anyway - I'd not worry too much about missing out on a few early northerlies, and in any case, we should after the past few winters be very used to the light being at the end of a tunnel that seems capable of suddenly changing length without any warning . If the vortex can be kept dishevelled in the troposphere and lower levels of the stratosphere, that's as good a place to start as any. IF.

Vortex sliced in two Some beautiful looking charts on the 6z Then we end up with cold air very close by in Europe not a bad way to start in November

I said yesterday developments look ripe for scandi troughing and high pressure through mid atlantic, with coldest shots just to our east, and the models are showing this for next week, meaning hopefully much drier sunnier conditions for all, temps around average for the time of year, slightly below at times, with cold nights, widespread frost for northern parts Sunday night week. Longer term, signs heights will build behind the scandi trough, continuing the drier cold theme. Frost and fog in early November is ideal in my book.

If anything,it's seasonal and that's what I want!

'Downgrade' etc.... Its a days worth of suites(mainly 12z.. With theEC 12Z yet to trickle! The main emphasis' should be a focus more on the tropospheric/stratospheric state' being modeled -cross suites-.. If its notable infer your looking for. The potantcy and alignment was always in doubt...and quite frankly 'still is'.... The broader spectrum looks as good as it gets on the doorstep of november!

Have our first snowfall forecast amounts from the fine mesh model we use for our location . The period Sun 6pm -Mon 6am... 27cm at 1750 absl, heaviest during this period . Snowfall will become moderate to light during the rest of Monday, more showery with cloud breaking. By Monday morning , freezing level will be at 750m. So looks like piste team will soon get to start on important base preparation with longer term lower temps expected as well which will help the process. Getting excited ! C

No charts to post at present , but the synoptic charts are really great for a big cool down over the UK and indeed for most of Europe. A few frosts even for southern Britain before Halloween makes it the first time in a few years that we have some really seasonal weather .! No point quibbling about record cold at this time of year.......I remember October 1997 picticularly the end of the month with record breaking cold frosts then November came along with some sickly mild weather..,..We should be happy with the model output.......

So you keep telling us... C.S

I think the most important thing here is that whatever model you look at, Europe is about to turn decidedly cold. A problem we've had in the past few winters is that Europe (at least the West) has been rather mild, so whenever we did manage to scrape an Easterly it wasn't particularly cold. Thanks Euro High. If we can get cold air into Europe and increase the snow cover, which it looks like we will, then we could be in a better position with heights being further North across Scandinavia this year. The continuous modelled splitting of the Vortex/Cross Polar flows is encouraging, but we did have the same kind of prospects this time last year and look how that turned out. In the mean time - Turning cooler, perhaps colder into Early November with maybe some snow across higher ground in the North. It'll be nice to get some widespread frosts, though. There's a lot of spread on the ENS, but a small cluster getting close to that -10c isotherm which is interesting..

For me I just love the dark nights being cold and crisp, as the pas few years it's just been wet and mild. I had a feeling this winter would start different, not that I'm predicting a 62-63 repeat, the feel of the charts looks far from normal which for me indicated there is more chance of the extreme happening one way or another. Yeah, not technical but with Ophelia etc the atmosphere seems from from it's normal state which is only a help rather than a hindrance. Obviously it could, and probably will, be another mild, wet winter but as long as things seem volatile then that volatility could swing in our direction. Time will tell. Until then some nice seasonal weather to look forward too.

Im not even going to dream big. 1 day of snow accumulating to 3-4 inches would be a better winter than the last 4 combined.

A quick look at the ecm this morning albeit there no great changes from the previous run. By 12 Friday the high cell is over Ireland with the cut off upper low to the south west in mid Atlantic beginning to stir. But the high quickly comes under pressure from a trough tracking east via Iceland which is north of Scotland which initiates a fresh north west flow across the UK by midday Saturday. The low then intensifies and tracks swiftly SE to be over the south Baltic by 06 on Sunday as high pressure once again surges north to the west of the UK. This will veer the wind over the UK northerly but more to point bring gales to the North Sea. The aforementioned high pressure then ridges briefly over the UK but a combination of the troughs tracking E/SE to the north west and the upper low to the south have split the high pressure and the next frontal disturbances impact Ireland Monday evening and with much more affect on Tuesday bringing heavy rain and strong winds particularly in Scotland. The main low then again tracks SE into the North Sea over the next couple of days which once again veers the wind northerly introducing a cooler showery airstream. All pretty predicable.

Are there signs of the models getting closer to agreement for early November? ECM GFS GEM . Definitely looks colder for everyone in these charts - might be windy as well but the best thing about it is that it should put a stop to the incessant rain we've endured for the last six weeks in this part of the world. I'm fed up with soggy weather and a cold snap with crisp mornings is the perfect forecast at this time of year.

Pretty impressive...

Good post Bobbydog It seems people are wanting snow on there doorstep....in October and a repeat of Oct 2008,this is very rare in our neck of the woods and there is plenty of time yet anyways,back on topic,i have been keeping an eye on strat proceedings and here is the 10 and 30 hpa temps over the north pole,yes not much of a warming as of yet but there is a slight uptick there 10 and 30 hpa zonal mean zonal winds and as you can see on the bottom right the oranges(if i am reading these charts right) marking a drop off in wind speeds but i would like to see reds in there but maybe not this early on into the season http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ i will continue to keep monitoring these as we progress into the season and just for a bit of fun,it's hotting up in the north pole...1216c will the ECM follow the the earlier runs from the GFS or will it stick to the same old record it has been for the last couple of days,will the GFS switch to it's earlier runs with bites at the cherry,a cherry isn't very big

GFS up to its all tricks again backtrack city lol, first Northerly clips Scotland which was modelled and now the second Northerly which modelled to hit for days goes pete tong another clipper for Scotland and east coast Up the GARDEN PATH WE GO

Spot on look at how many garden paths we been up over the last few years or more. But I suppose it's very possible what with hurricanes galore and east QBO and declined solar cycle perhaps just perhaps we maybe lucky. I won't hold my breath though. Although there's no doubt the Atlantic is not full on so far we shall see as we enter November let's hope split vortex might benefit towards a decent stratospheric warming event. Already you can see with in 2 days the deeper cold further east. Although frost and fog will feature which I think is better than blow torch winter.

After a day off, the ECM clusters are back online. No clusters suggesting anything exceptionally cold, TBH, but the Euro slug is definitely off the menu in the short-term.

Text book cross-pole split. V-good/favourable wave activity.....

For those that know and can remember these things, I just wondered how similar the current set up is to November last year? Particularly the background signals? The reason I ask is that last November we saw snow here in Leeds and I thought this is a great set up for the Winter to come. Of course then we hardly saw another flake for the rest of winter and no more lying snow. Is there anything in the models to suggest this cold/cool snap will be anything other than a little blip before the PV gets organised and we are back to business as usual?

Well *IF* the GFS is to be believed, the 0c Isotherm will be draped across the UK for over a week starting on the 1 November, so we should see some chilly temperatures. Whilst not cold enough for snow in low lying areas, the Scottish ski resorts should get off to a pretty decent start to their season. What's noticeable is that on the face of it the charts seem to to scream cold, such as this at 192 However, as it's so early in the season the uppers aren't as cold as you would imagine, we get -6 uppers over Scotland for a very short time but nothing colder. There just isn't enough cold air around to bring deep cold to our shores......yet. All in all though, good early signs and reasons to be cheerful for the coldies on here.

I thought you guys might like this. So a guy elsewhere (obviously far more capable than i) has actually found a way to match as many areas of the ocean as normal to various telleconections and came up with this (the forecast cold spell in the US will also mean his October forecast will come out pretty well).. And the years he likes to make that of course are generally good.. 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1) From a CET point of view the only bad winter is 2007/2008 (though it mainly Jan and Feb that were bad). It's also worth looking at 43 and 44 because there's some evidence that the QBO cycle may have failed after the Nino of 41 as well, 1932 has been an abnormal match for a tonne of stuff including the hurricane season. The general gist is that Dec and Jan see high pressure over Scandi and the Arctic, pattern breaks in Feb and we see a weak westerly pattern.

In the short term it looks a done deal for transition to cooler/perhaps colder shots via atlantic ridge placement. Dragging in north/north-westerly flow... Medium term: perhaps a more defined notable shot' via sharpening of alignment introducing a more elongated northerly plunge countrywide!... Some will argue' that-the tropospheric/stratospheric vortex(polar) being in disaray at such early stages is premature' for winter.... Personaly i could'nt like it any better atm..small waving dissallowing organisation at this particular juncture screams possibilites' at crucial winter point..... And northern hemisphercaly its easy to clasp' the pressure the beast is under..... Long may that continue!!!!

Apologies for the problems overnight and this morning, we've found the cause now (disk failure). While we put a fix in place, there may be the odd period (of a few minutes of downtime) during the next hour or so.

The anomalies of late have all been in the same ball park but struggling to come to complete agreement over the pattern in the Atlantic so need to still keep that in mind when making a quick assessment of the way forward from this evening’s outputs. In the ten day period the overall pattern is strong ridge Alaska (continuing WAA into the Arctic), The main vortex lobe N. Canada/NW Greenland (and becoming the main player) with cold trough south through N. America with subsidiary lobe Franz Joseph and a negatively tilted trough into eastern Europe. Associated with this is less amplification in the Atlantic so we are looking at an upper flow possibly just north of west and changeable weather over the UK with temps around average, maybe a tad below. Moving into the later period the trend continues with an intensification of the Canadian vortex, a weakening of the Euro trough and with low pressure over Greenland a more westerly upper flow with perhaps the Azores HP taking more interest in the vicinity of the UK albeit NOAA is not really on board with this. Thus remaining changeable but perhaps more inclined to a N/S split with temps around average perhaps a tad below.. Can't post the EPS but it's not a million miles from the GEFS. A Nina pattern?

SEVERE DOWNGRADE ALERT Not only have all the ops now abandoned the Northerly, the GEFS are already showing a marked change as well only 100 hrs into the run.

God I hate Winter but if we are going to have one, I want to do it properly. Can't stand months of wind, rain and 12-13 degrees.

The seasons seem to come around so quickly on NW. What with a weakening easterly QBO , WAA flooding into the Arctic via Fairbanks and Mars going into aretrograde orbit, a fine early Spring is definitely, or rather potentially, on the cards.

Just discussion on what the Model Outputs are showing in here please, There are the Model ramp and winter thoughts/hopes threads already open for anything other. Thanks please continue.

It's an age thing. Sadly it's unlikely to improve from now on. Well this is going to feel rather chilly, if it comes off, especially for those of us in the NE.

Snow's almost into the Baltic States now. Good increase in ice-cap too

4.9C please.

It was the late 1980s when the AMO began to shift into its warm phase (I'm sure the run of warmer winters afterwards is no coincidence) - I think it's beginning to shift back into the cold phase right now, so perhaps not too much longer to wait for some better winters + we have the solar minimum coming. Colder winters tend to occur just after minimum (obvious exceptions aside) - perhaps because the ocean surface anomaly patterns (resulting from zonality over the previous winter seasons) initially fight the atmospheric pattern (more favoured to blocking during the minimum). I have a theory (never had time to do the research to validate though) that proper easterly outbreaks are much less likely to get as far as the UK during the the warm AMO - partly because of the warmer N Sea, which increases the chances that shortwaves form and prevent the real cold from arriving, especially down here. Another theory is that when the pattern shifts into the cold AMO phase again, it will coincide with a notably cold W European winter during the switch; that should at least get tested in the next decade.

Further to summer blizzards post regarding 1932. I should add the from information/conversations from over on Twitter, 1932 is becoming a year that is increasingly popping up as an analog for upcoming winter for mainly following reasons: easterly qbo, active hurricane season (ranks in top 10 for total hurricanes within a season like this year), solar cycle 16 in quiet spell in '32 and probably the most important and interesting link between both years is 1932/33 being the 2nd year La nina like 2017 (per seasonal models forecast). Also to note was 1930/31 falling under strong el nino category before multi-year la nina set in, again this can be compared to 2015 El nino (although understandably 2015 feel under super nino). Last point to note was AMO phase generally the same as 2017. All this information can be found in American forums and Twitter too. Top pic shows solar activity during 1932, bottom pic shows the ENSO pattern prior to 1932.

Unfortunately the high has a saggy bottom

Yes,my bad,i was thinking it was high pressure forgive me,still learning about the strat the ECM is following the GFS,still,i am looking forward to the frost's if nowt else.

You'd be surprised. Earlier this year I made the graph below (I'm not sure what the original reason was) showing the 30-year rolling mean for the January CET. I thought it was of great interest and so decided to keep it, and I'm glad I did. Things really were very mild in the early 1900s. (Each point on the graph represents the 30-year rolling average starting that year.)

So thankful for another lovely day, so much work done on the flat, still got all the windows open even though it's getting dark. And Daphne has been sunbathing this afternoon..... Are fellow gardeners harvesting all vulnerable things this weekend? Still got some chillis in a cold frame but I think I'll get them in before the cold temp arrive next week.

What's new? these days Northerly's almost always get corrected east. I'm not surprised at all to be honest. Having said that there's still time for a correction west. It's over a week away after all.

you could also argue the very cold winter of 1939/40 ushered in a colder period that lasted until the very mild winter of 87/88..since then the weather has flipped to a much milder regime.

Snow please often, thank you!

A lovely autumn day with plenty of bright sunshine and a partly cloudy sky. The temperature today is 18 C and the wind strength is 2.5 mph WNW .

A provisional daily record for yesterday at 14.4C, beating the previous record by 0.1C. Not a lot of change in the latest GFS, with a CET of about 12.8C +/-0.2C likely at months end, before corrections. It also seem unlikely that we'll manage to be the 3rd year on record to make it to November (excl previous winter/Spring) without a daily mean below 10C, as the last 2 days of the month in particular could be quite chilly.

The Inverness snow row shows around a 43% chance mid next week

As ever the weather loves to be unpredictable. So firstly our current anomolies are at -1.4 and -0.8 respectively. However.. The westerlies (probably MJO related) have completed their first full cycle since at least April. However.. Sub-surface anomolies are now very strong and still getting colder. .. Seems to me like this is either a last gasp or we are seeing a game of chicken, if we get another surge in the trades for a few weeks then we are going full Nina with those sub-surface anomolies. If we see repeated MJO cycles, the atmosphere may try fight.

While the Euro is less gung ho about it i think that both models agree on a generally cool and unsettled outlook heading into the longer term (probably too early for snow for most but sub zero uppers will deliver for hills and ski resorts will love the west facing slopes getting a good whollop). The pattern at the start is essentially driven by a two wave amplification in both the Pacific and Atlantic however over time the Azores heads home (quite weak) but the Pacific High actually cuts off on both models keeping pressure high near the central Arctic. This remains the case right out to day 10.

A quick glance at this evening's anomalies and the reason would appear to be quite apparent for the differences between the gfs and ecm det, runs. Although there is pretty good upstream agreement on the significant amplification over N. America with the Alaskan ridge and WAA into the Arctic, cold trough down central N. America and twin, diffuse, vortex lobes there are still differences in the Atlantic on how to handle the high pressure and the trough to the south. Not forgetting also the orientation of the Scandinavian trough This could easily explain the trough popping SE in mid Atlantic on the det. run I shouldn't really post the EPS chart but I feel a little license is allowed as the essential still isn't out yet Bad day vis the ecm

Definitely one of the most memorable weather events. Looking at the archives Im sure it was a lobe of the vortex dive-bombing into the UK