Leaderboard

First one of the new season - BULLSEYE!

I was about to say that if there were 80mph gusts, the damage would have been newsworthy. But as it was Wolverhampton it would be difficult to tell the difference...

Wow, amazing storm surge in West Cork yesterday.....

Big block keeps popping up could this be the year.

I was going to do a quick spiel on last night's anomalies but, although they are all to some degree agreed on the upstream pattern change and amplification in the Atlantic, the differences are sufficient, particularly with the orientation of the upper trough in the eastern Atlantic, too make the longer term outlook very iffy..Suffice it to say there may be a brief period of drier and warmer weather but in the long term the amplification may not do us any particular favours. Back to today. This morning the influence of Ex Ophelia is still being felt in N. Ireland and particularly Scotland where it is still wet and very windy. This will clear quite quickly this morning as the low continues to move quite quickly into Scandinavia so much calmer conditions, albeit with some showers, by this afternoon.. And also all sea areas should be without gales by the same time. Apart from the far north, for the rest of England and Wales, a much quieter and cooler day but by evening a warm front edging in from the south will bring cloud and some rain to the SW/S So a much quieter day tomorrow for all but by midnight Thursday we are already seeing the European high pressure ridging NW and the Atlantic dominated by the negatively tilted upper trough which heralds the start of some more nasty weather with new lows to the NW and SW with associated front over Ireland. The low to the south west and the front swing across the UK on Thursday bringing rain to just about everyone but it is the next depression away to the south west which is the main concern. This tracks quite quickly ENE on a strong upper flow (100kts at 500mb) and by appalling coincidence is 965mb at the tip of south west Ireland by midnight Saturday. Over the next 24 hours it tracks across the Irish Sea, Northern England and into the North Sea bringing much rain and severe gales in places as it does so. Where the worst of the winds will be is obviously dependent on the precise track of the low but currently Wales and the south west and southern England are in the frame. After some very transient ridging on Sunday the next frontal system arrives from the west along with small waves that form on it so more general rain again by Monday. This unsettled theme continues into midweek but it is around here that the aforementioned pattern change is indicated so probably a good place to leave it.

With a bit of luck, the core of the highest winds will miss to your east...perhaps running up the Irish Sea as per 18z On a side note, I can't believe how differently Ireland approaches these things. I could never imagine my company (a large retailer) allowing closure due to storm force winds. In fact, they'd still try and trade if the roof blew off!

Agree. But now we are splitting hairs over the difference between cold and deep cold. I dont like his statement because he is making a broad brush statement that ignores details. We have a tendency to see winters past with tinted specs - NW and northerly airstreams have never been guaranteed bringers of snow though they will always bring cold air and cold rain at least. I grew up in Glasgow in the 70s and 80s and can tell you that unless there was a continental element to the air stream rain was always more likely than snow. To say that global temperature rises have changed the state of northerlies and north westerlies is to grab those tinted specs and ignore the reality. If we get an embedded Scandy/Greeny high with lower heights to the south then we will always have a chance of both cold and snow. Why Scandinavian Highs have made fewer appearances in recent years is certainly an interesting debate. The last 4 winters have been relatively mild, but the 4 before that had periods of blocked cold. And the CET record shows plenty of mild winters and mild winter periods where clearly westerlies prevailed - though admittedly the run from about 1998 to 2007 was extraordinary for the consistency of mild airstreams and a lack of continental cold in midwinter. All interesting stuff - but I'm not going to be swayed by a casual comment linking global anomalies to fewer cold winters. The link is not as simple as that makes out.

Nothing out of the ordinary here for autumn but if someone finds a blue recycling bin or a grey food bin with '55' on them on their way to work can you let me know! I've been up and down the street, poking in driveways and behind hedges and not a sign of them Why do gales always seem to arrive on bin day?

October Orange Sky Index (OOSI), anyone??

I do start to take note of how the atlantic behaves from now through into November as an indicator of likely conditions in the upcoming winter (especially early on through Dec and into Jan). Late October is notoriously an atlantic driven period, with a classic westerly, ridge/trough progression - zonal usually. However, if we see strong blocking to the east or north take hold - which goes against the norm, I do note this as a positive signal for perhaps a less than normal winter atlantic wise - i.e. a non-dominated zonal one. Likewise if we see low pressure coming unstuck, or a southerly tracking jet or just unusual synoptics again another positive signal things might not be as expected come the winter. The current synoptics and those forecast for the week ahead as we enter latter period of October, are quite abnormal, sudden ex-tropical storm system taking a highly unusual track, then we have low pressure elongating and stretched in an unusual NW-SE axis, with height rises to the north, and then another low pressure development way to the south centreing itself over the country.. far from typical zonal onslaught or classic ridge/trough scenario, indeed there will be barely a break from low pressure over the next 7 days. All very interesting and quite unusual. It just feels that the trough wants to settle in over the UK on a southerly dimension which will crucially lead to height rises to the north and then snap..

You can tell we are entering the silly season. The clusters are as clear as mud lol

Edit. Just to clarify I am talking 8-12 day period below. Personally I am quite interested to see how organised the shift East of the PV is - how deep a trough will set up in Europe and how far West it will be and what sort of amplitude we get behind (will we get positive heights into Greenland for example) Not sure how much it relates to what we can expect for early winter patterns but I will feel encouraged if positive height anomalies can get into Greenland in any meaningful way even though blocking is easier to sustain in October for the most part.

no. the general pattern is very similar, give or take the odd patch of snow. if you look back over the years, the snow cover varies widely. dont forget, the theory of the SAI is not about early snow cover but the rate of advance throughout october. more specifically, south of 60º north. if you take that theory and apply it to 2009, at this stage it was terrible but we all know what happened then. also, a mild october in europe has no bearing on how winter will evolve. there are so many other factors at play, to take one of them and say its "not good" in mid october is just being negative before there is really any reason to be.

To be fair, I can't see this winter being anything but mild again- however that isn't based on anything happening RE snow advance over Eurasia, more the fact that SSTs are conducive to promoting the same pressure distribution stateside that we've seen over the past few. Looks to me like the jet is going to be as fired up as ever.

Aye

She had a NHC name and the UK met keeps the protocol for already named cyclones. If the next one is not named as a tropical system, it will be named by the local met agency if it warrants such.

I don't mind as long as you've brought a proper winter with you. Has to have at least one snowy channel low.

Possible, though not very plausible. I believe it was around this time in 2010 we started to see faint whispers of what was to come though.

All that warm air headed into Greenland at end of the ecm could lead to some northern blocking? If thats what happens.

Yes, just posted in the un named Atlantic storms thread if anyone wants to view, it's now a named disturbance as Invest 92L currently right over the other side of the Atlantic

Eastern quolls will soon be reintroduced to Australian mainland after being wiped out by foxes http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-16/rewilding-australia-eastern-quoll-to-booderee-park-nsw/9049306?pfmredir=sm

It’s been emotional Ophelia

His statement attributes this to "background warmth." You are not noting the context of the statement which is the key factor. Nobody would deny that we have had fewer cold winters since the 80s - but this is a matter of synoptics and not background warming. The far more interesting debate is why we have had a greater number of winters dominated by westerlies and fewer periods of arctic or continental influence. This is a far more complex debate and one that cannot be answered by raw global temperature increases alone.

Yep - I dont understand his logic there at all. Background warmth may well modify cold airstreams a bit, but it will mean absolutely nothing if we get a long fetch easterly or trough dropping in from the north. It will still be cold, and cold enough for snow. As far as I am aware potential for vortex disruption and a meridional jet shape is unaffected by "background warmth" so his argument is nonsense.

Surprised not more coldies taking note of the plunge of cold to the east on the ECM - but having said that, very little support within the ECM ensembles from this morning, with perhaps only 7 out of 51 members set up in a way that could potentially shift the cold further towards us. Speaking of this morning's ECM clusters, they were a real hoot - by T288, they were roughly equally split between 1. a Scandi trough / cold northerly for the UK, 2. a long draw warm southerly and 3. a monster storm slap bang on top of us. Four seasons in one ensemble set

The GEFS and NOAA anomalies this evening are certainly firming up on the Pattern change over N. America and similar amplification in the Atlantic and even, maybe a tad unusually, emphasizing this in the latter period. This portends a reduction of any significant west-east movement with low pressure residing in the east Atlantic and perhaps a slack low pressure area to the south west of the UK in the later period. Plenty here for the det. runs to get to grips with. Could well be a reasonable warm set up with temps a little above average. A quick glance at the ecm and it not quite so progressive with the pattern thus the Euro high a bit more influential over the UK initially. There are differences so this is not cut and dried by any means. EDIT The EPS in the latter stages a more prosaic gentle upper flow a tad south of west but temps still okay

Plenty more unseasonably warm weather on the way next week according to the Ecm 12z with winds becoming a long draw southerly, it would become very warm across the s / se in any decent sunshine, potentially more very impressive warmth for late october further south if this run is anything to go by.

Also after a wet and quite windy Thursday night the ecm has the Saturday low 975mb over Cork at 06 and 985mb NE Wales by 18. Thus the strongest winds in the SW approaches and in the Channel gusting in the 50-55kt region. The heaviest rain south Wales and the Midlands. By midnight it's over Hull 990mb

For newbies 1knt = 1.151mph so gusts just short of 70mph

Been watching a couple of thieving grey squirrels nick most of my good crop of chestnuts. They are planted all over the garden. This afternoon a Magpie dug up some of the prized results of the thieving from the lawn. Then they were buried in one of the borders. A few minutes later up pops a squirrel. Digs up the chestnuts in the border and puts them back in the lawn. Laugh. Doing some repotting as I get ready for the winter. Found a pile nuts stuffed the pots.

Contemplating

Just look at that latest run from GFS for day 9 at 850mb height. Warm Tropical Continent flow wafting out of deepest Africa for much of mainland Europe. Think we will see October records off the scale at this rate in quite a number of countries right across from Portugal to Hungary. C

Now that the MO have updated, we currently have 2 provisional records for the 14th and 16th. These are 17.4C and 16.2C, beating the respective previous records of 16.1C and 15.8C. The minimum for the 14th was just 0.4C below the daily record mean! The latest GFS has the CET gradually dropping to 13.4C and staying around there until the end of the run. So a record warm month is still on the cards.

By the sounds of it Pembroke was hit with the worst a little after I left. Driving through there were branches on the road, in some places you couldn’t see the road underneath all the leaves. I’d estimate 60mph gusts at a complete and utter guess whilst I was there. 650 miles driven in total. Not entirely convinced what I saw was worth it, but still, good fun!

Some tree damage around Gower and outskirts of Swansea area but nothing too severe. A pretty standard gale in this area with a top peak gust of 79mph at Mumbles Head.

Winter is coming, I'm back. I apologise in advance.

'Hurricane Sun' still in evidence this morning on the South coast.

Yes the Ecm 00z shows a BIG improvement next week with high pressure and increasing warmth..these charts look more like summer than late october!

Top gusts UK. Gwynedd had gusts of winds 90mph 78 knots Capel Curig and Aberdaron Elevated site Gt Dun Fell in the Cumbria Fells a gust of 99mph 86 knots was recorded --Met Office

We lived. But the cat was not happy at all. Even the elect stayed on, that's unusual.

Is there an explanation why Ophelia was so lacking in rain? When you think of hurricanes you think of inches and inches of rain.

Strongest gusts for now across North Wales and NW England. 79mph gust at Aberdaron in NW Wales, 75mph at Capel Curig, 67mph gust at Shap in Cumbria. Airmass loop in tweet below shows nicely the transition of Ophelia from hurricane to powerful extratropical storm

I knew today would be eerie, just based on the warmth and breeze so made sure I had a few hours off work today (self employed). This orangeness was a bonus. I enjoyed the sky from the pub garden.

Evening All , After todays spectacular display of mother nature ,that's the amazing red sun and the spooky red hue during day time today here in Worcestershire much better than any eclipse and something Ive never seen before , Ophilia is now dying very quickly but still a big feature across the uk, a little bit quieter in the next few days and then the Attention turns to the weekend ,looks rather stormy by Saturday fuelled by a very strong jet stream....

Blood sun at 2pm

At tad breezy on Snowdon summit at 121.8 mph

Suspect we will hit a high point tomorrow with the CET perhaps 13.8 degrees, then a gradual climb down through the rest of the month, but odds of a below average month preety much can write off, indeed even something within 1 degree of average looks very unlikely, so yet again another very mild October - we've had many in the last 12 years.