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Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

I am actually going to phone Michael Fish tonight, before his weekly Friday Netweather broadcast and ask him if a hurricane is coming. Great Storm 30th anniversary Sun/Mon

First hopefully of many northerly,s consistently appearing at the end of the runs now just to get it in the more reliable time frame winter hunt begins .

A wintry end to October according to the Gfs 12z, synoptically great for opening the arctic floodgates / icegates and locking in an increasingly cold outbreak with strong height rises to the west / northwest..the forum will be buzzing if we see charts like these verify later this month and into early November!..whet's the appetite for the long winter ahead!

Whilst many seem to be wishing (as usual) for Ophelia to intensify and track further east and having a little titter about it it's occasionally worthwhile having a ponder. In January 1968 I was on a ship anchored in the Clyde when the great Glasgow storm struck demolishing much of Glasgow and killing 30 people in the process, some in the river next to us. We were lucky not to join them as we nearly ran aground. Fast forward 15 years to 1981 and I also remember well the storm of December 1981 in these parts which resulted in the loss of the Penlee lifeboat, the Solomon Browne, and all of the crew. Just in case this generates the usual refrain "of it will happen irrespective of what we say" that is totally irrelevant to wishing/wanting the storm to impact fully the UK to the extent of hoping it will change track, which I find totally crass.

Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) "Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday. It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

May not look impressive but it's probably on every UK extreme weather fanatic's bucket list to get a hurricane force advisory for our shores from the NHC, so I'm just going to milk this for all its worth This is likely to increase as we near T0 if current forecasts hold.

If you are inferring from that that I'm not a weather/meteorological enthusiast then you are totally wrong and I have probably been so a tad longer than the rest of you. And just for the record I was not attempting to make anyone feel guilty, I know from past experience that would be futile, but merely posting my opinion about something I feel quite strongly about .It is not always apparent in this forum but I assume I am allowed an opinion?

Absolutely extraordinary to see this type of wording in a Forcecast Discussion from the NHC.

The same tired old pathetic story I'm afraid. What else is new? Still I'm sure there will be some who will be happy enough with it for whatever reason.

Sorry but we are weather enthusiasts at the end of the day and the majority on here do wish for the 'extremes' like heat and thunderstorms in summer, cold and snow in winter and deep low's with severe gales in Autumn and we all know with all those scenarios that there is a risk to life and sadly at times there are some tragic consequences. However that should not stop us from wishing or looking out for any of those scenarios to come to fruition despite the risks and nor should there be any attempts of being guilty just because the majority wish for the 'extremes' which has the risk of tragic consequences.

I'd recommend getting out to Cape Clear island (off the south coast of Cork) the day before by boat. Did it February 2 years ago before a biggish Atlantic storm and got some great photos. I imagine the shots possible from Ophelia would be incredible!

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way

Well that's blow a few leprechauns off their toadstools, to be sure to be sure..

Some seem to have forgotten this is a weather forum, bring on the full fury of mother nature I say.

"Ryanair"

Looking very impressive for a Cat 1 now...

Just for info I put this in the seasonal forecast thread; I think the chances of heavy snow this winter are very high especially on the hills of Scotland.Why because a few weeks ago Glencoe Mountain anounced that they were going to raise hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a Snow Factory capable of making hundreds of tonnes of snow at up to 25c to give them at least one run of snow throughout the season from Ist December to Ist May after last years lack of snow .The news in the last day that Cairngorm Mountain is also going to trial a Snow Factory for December and January now confirms that at least the Mountains of Scotland will get dumped on by the weather snow gods.

Amazing noaa still have it at hurricane status south west of Ireland. Going to be one to watch closely.

I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!!

Looking at the storm as a hybrid between hurricane and extra tropical storm might give some different insights particularly looking at it as extra tropical. In this case we have a jet streak looping around the storm as it moves up from off the coast of Spain to France with divergence aloft ahead of the storm. This would suggest rapid cyclogenesis (deepening of the low) as it approaches the UK.As the storm moves near to the coast of Ireland that jet streak swings across England. Strongest winds for a hurricane are near the eye whilst the strongest winds from a non tropical storm are under the jet stream. Looking at the ECMWF 850mb winds shows wind strengths in excess of 70 knots at 850MB (That is 90mph winds at 5000 feet) across much of the UK. Now ECMWF brings the low closer to the UK than some other models and winds at the surface will be a lot less than that, but it is worth bearing in mind. So we must be careful not to assign purely tropical attributes to this storm.Having said that Southern Ireland looks to have the brunt of this according to current modelling.

Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...

LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast make that £57 If it misses, then I'll just have to find a pub and get drunk win win

Met Eireann have awoken from their slumber http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp Was reading the social media this morning and all that was saying was that Monday was going to be windy, nothing like the Daily Express headlines. I'm about 45 mins from Shannon airport with good access to M18 if anyone wants board and lodging!

So tempted to book a flight to Dublin, hire a car and head south!! I mean when will we next see this happen? I’m not sure I can let it pass me by

Michael Fish on the BBC news this evening and I still remember well the night of the Great Storm of '87 coming to our village in Kent, even though 30 years have passed, it was kind of burnt in the brain for life, as did the Burns Day Storm of 1990 and January 1987 snowstorm. Wow, wasn't '87 an exciting year for weather? Anyway, kind of eerie that another ex-hurricane like the Great Storm comes a-knocking exactly on the 30th anniversary, though probably not a UK landfall as it stands for now. But, nonetheless, seems surreal too that the NHC have a wind cone aimed at the British Isles

18Z actually ups the "heat" for Monday - 16C uppers covering much of England in the early afternoon. 27C anyone??

Interesting to see how the various models are handling all this. The ECM has definitely wanted to take it east more than the GFS. Met Office model more in line with the GFS. This is from the model tracker in Extra - showing the last 8 (if available) runs from the GFS, ECM and Met Office Global Model for Monday at 1200. https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=modeltracker;sess=

"Mull of Kintyre, Ophelia rolls in from the sea My desire is not to get blown away Oh, Mull of Kintyre" (Sung in a voice like a donkey being chainsawed)

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way

So ECMWF tracks Ophelia across Dublin and then ENE into Southern Scotland with severe wind gusts of 60-70mph possible for Cumbria on the latest model run. One thing to note also is that ECM12Z fills Ophelia out quite rapidly with the example being she is projected to have a central pressure of 974hpa just W of Waterford in the S of Ireland at around 18:00 on 16th October then 9 hours later at 03:00 on 17th October pressure increases to 990hpa (16hpa +/9hour) 1.7hpa +/ph. Seems the Euro is struggling to handle the tropical nature of Ophelia's interaction with terrain. Incidentally the track is S Ireland, Dublin, Southern Scotland and out into the N Sea with rapid cyclolysis. I still think this solution is too far East but we'll see. Worst affected areas for wind gusts on this run would be a line from Cork, Waterford to Dublin extending across the Irish Sea into Cumbria. 60-80mph gusts, mainly lower end of this range inland away from mountainous terrain.

I think the chances of heavy snow this winter are very high especially on the hills of Scotland.Why because a few weeks ago Glencoe Mountain anounced that they were going to raise hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a Snow Factory capable of making hundreds of tonnes of snow at up to 25c to give them at least one run of snow throughout the season from Ist December to Ist May after last years lack of snow .The news in the last day that Cairngorm Mountain is also going to trial a Snow Factory for December and January now confirms that at least the Mountains of Scotland will get dumped on by the weather snow gods.

Much as I love the weather ( and I'm fascinated by Ophelia because of her unusual track) I can recall all too clearly events of 30 years ago and am not desperately keen on experiencing them first hand. Nor am I terribly keen on my family in S. Ireland experiencing them first hand. I love to watch events like this from afar, but I've no desire to 'bring it on' when it comes to hurricane force winds. You're not alone!

I don't think I have ever been so pessimistic about the coming winter season. Normally at this time I am looking forward to winter but not this year, it might as well be April! However, on the plus side it's extremely unlikely that I will end up disappointed. The only way is up.......

Looks like I'll be in prime position here in Cork ( excluding gfs of course ) Look forward to updating everyone IF it does happen

A misleading graphic really. It may have Cat 1 strength winds, but it won't be a hurricane.

I've asked around and a few local farmers are willing to lend me a dozen or so pitchforks. So if anyone wants to join my angry mob to chase the AH back where it belongs, sign ups are now open.

12Z ICON has gusts up to 180 km/h over SW Ireland.

Really? Am I the only one that wishes that Ophelia would simply sod-off into the North Atlantic and consequently die a death? Okay, I must be missing something?

Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

A quick scan through the ECM ensembles shows a more easterly route is still possible. One crazy member (number 3) sends it right up the Irish Sea with gusts over 110 mph near the Isle of Man, and gusts over 90mph on both the east coast of Ireland and western side of Wales/N England/S Scotland.

I know there's already this fear that current weather patterns are going to be stuck in a rut for a long time, and possibly spoiling yet another Winter season. But seriously aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here. At least it's only October. Surely there's plenty of scope for change yet. Besides even if temps we're below average now, it wouldn't guarantee Winter temps would also be. I believe Autumn 1974 was pretty chilly, but the Winter that followed has a bad reputation for cold fans. There's also that old saying about Ice in November to bear a duck, the following Winter will be rain and muck, or something like that. Not that that's always true as well, but it surely came from experience of such happening, probably more than once, which if nothing else illustrates that just because the weather's doing one thing now, doesn't mean it will still be doing it further down the road. Probably just better saving any concerns until Winter is actually imminent.

The leaves will be growing back on the trees if this mornings GFS run is correct

Latest ECM Ensembles keeping it mostly to the West of Ireland too - I think chances are, we'll see it correct Westwards. With high pressure to our East, the models to like to underestimate the strength. We see this in winter all the time with Atlantic breakdowns. Ireland is going to be the place to be for this one, I think

I would like it to become a rule on this forum to be honest! The fewer hits they get the better.

Latest ECM pushes the eye of Ophelia straight through Ireland a little more weakly than yesterday, with strongest gusts now on the west coast of England/Wales/Scotland, over 80 mph in places. Temperatures for Monday generally 22-25C through central and eastern England.

I don't think I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars nearby to Ireland/UK on a FAX chart. Potential for this to land at Category 1 strength that sounds surreal in itself.

Yep, think you're right, it developed over Bay of Biscay rather than an ex-hurricane reintensifying, nonetheless still weird Ophelia makes potential landfall on the exact date of the 30th anniversary