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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/10/17 in all areas

  1. 19 points
    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland
  2. 15 points
    I am actually going to phone Michael Fish tonight, before his weekly Friday Netweather broadcast and ask him if a hurricane is coming. Great Storm 30th anniversary Sun/Mon
  3. 13 points
    First hopefully of many northerly,s consistently appearing at the end of the runs now just to get it in the more reliable time frame winter hunt begins .
  4. 10 points
    A wintry end to October according to the Gfs 12z, synoptically great for opening the arctic floodgates / icegates and locking in an increasingly cold outbreak with strong height rises to the west / northwest..the forum will be buzzing if we see charts like these verify later this month and into early November!..whet's the appetite for the long winter ahead!
  5. 10 points
    Whilst many seem to be wishing (as usual) for Ophelia to intensify and track further east and having a little titter about it it's occasionally worthwhile having a ponder. In January 1968 I was on a ship anchored in the Clyde when the great Glasgow storm struck demolishing much of Glasgow and killing 30 people in the process, some in the river next to us. We were lucky not to join them as we nearly ran aground. Fast forward 15 years to 1981 and I also remember well the storm of December 1981 in these parts which resulted in the loss of the Penlee lifeboat, the Solomon Browne, and all of the crew. Just in case this generates the usual refrain "of it will happen irrespective of what we say" that is totally irrelevant to wishing/wanting the storm to impact fully the UK to the extent of hoping it will change track, which I find totally crass.
  6. 9 points
    I totally agree that the Remain campaign was shambolic. Two big mistakes spring to mind: 1. You should never agree to hold a referendum based on not changing anything; if you want to hold and fight a referendum then it should be for change - Cameron was against the change, but it was an attempt to unite his own party over the same issue which brought down the previous two Tory PMs (no change on that front) 2. The campaign was totally negative. This seems to have been because it worked for the Scottish referendum and also for the 2015 election campaign. There was no focus on the positives of the EU and the fact that every vote counted (unlike the GE which is decided in only a few marginal seats) meant that turnout was higher. The more positive Leave campaign was always more likely to make the Leave vote more enthused (see the Trump v Clinton campaign for a similar story, or even the 2017 GE campaign). As for no compelling reason to stay in the EU, I could write an essay on this, and I'm sure it's been well covered without my trawling through several hundred pages of posts! But in summary: 1. The cost of leaving, not just in terms of the so-called divorce bill, but ultimately the numbers of new government employees required in the Home Office, Border Control, HMRC et al. Add to this spending required for customs controls at Ports and Airports, and any saving from paying money to the EU starts to quickly dissipate 2. Trade deals. I've read lots of guff from arch-Brexiters on the Conservative side about trade deals, both with EU and with non-EU countries, including the idea that we should just abolish all tariffs if we get no deal. Clearly the EU does not buy into the idea that they have more to lose than us and it is not surprising that they do not want to give up the foundations of the single market in order to give the UK similar access to that currently enjoyed. On the non-EU side, the recent imposition of punitive tariffs on Bombardier demonstrates the reality of what trading outside of the EU bloc will entail. Is the US really going to hand us a trade deal on favourable terms given its recent behaviour? Furthermore, the only agreement so far reached with the EU regarding agricultural quotas has been rejected by the US and New Zealand amongst others; again this demonstrates the complexities of negotiating with so many countries. On the other hand, if we simply adopt a zero-tariff approach should no deal be reached with the EU, then we effectively remove any leverage we have for any negotiations in the future. Unilateral Economic Disarmament would mean that we cannot offer any incentives to other countries to remove tariffs or increase quotas for imports from the UK. There may be positives to leaving the EU (and I declare at this point that I voted Remain), but I'm struggling to see how it is going to be easy and not involve many years of uncertainty. At the very least it is about time the government admitted that it is going to be a long and difficult adjustment.
  7. 9 points
    Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) "Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday. It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality
  8. 8 points
    May not look impressive but it's probably on every UK extreme weather fanatic's bucket list to get a hurricane force advisory for our shores from the NHC, so I'm just going to milk this for all its worth This is likely to increase as we near T0 if current forecasts hold.
  9. 8 points
    If you are inferring from that that I'm not a weather/meteorological enthusiast then you are totally wrong and I have probably been so a tad longer than the rest of you. And just for the record I was not attempting to make anyone feel guilty, I know from past experience that would be futile, but merely posting my opinion about something I feel quite strongly about .It is not always apparent in this forum but I assume I am allowed an opinion?
  10. 7 points
    Absolutely extraordinary to see this type of wording in a Forcecast Discussion from the NHC.
  11. 7 points
    The same tired old pathetic story I'm afraid. What else is new? Still I'm sure there will be some who will be happy enough with it for whatever reason.
  12. 6 points
    Sorry but we are weather enthusiasts at the end of the day and the majority on here do wish for the 'extremes' like heat and thunderstorms in summer, cold and snow in winter and deep low's with severe gales in Autumn and we all know with all those scenarios that there is a risk to life and sadly at times there are some tragic consequences. However that should not stop us from wishing or looking out for any of those scenarios to come to fruition despite the risks and nor should there be any attempts of being guilty just because the majority wish for the 'extremes' which has the risk of tragic consequences.
  13. 6 points
    I'd recommend getting out to Cape Clear island (off the south coast of Cork) the day before by boat. Did it February 2 years ago before a biggish Atlantic storm and got some great photos. I imagine the shots possible from Ophelia would be incredible!
  14. 5 points
    The debate does divide, but I don't accept that I have to accede to a view which promotes damage to social, cultural and economic damage to the UK and Scotland in particular. BTW I am not entrenched, I await coherent reasons for leaving the EU.
  15. 5 points
    It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way
  16. 5 points
    Just for info I put this in the seasonal forecast thread; I think the chances of heavy snow this winter are very high especially on the hills of Scotland.Why because a few weeks ago Glencoe Mountain anounced that they were going to raise hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a Snow Factory capable of making hundreds of tonnes of snow at up to 25c to give them at least one run of snow throughout the season from Ist December to Ist May after last years lack of snow .The news in the last day that Cairngorm Mountain is also going to trial a Snow Factory for December and January now confirms that at least the Mountains of Scotland will get dumped on by the weather snow gods.
  17. 5 points
    Well that's blow a few leprechauns off their toadstools, to be sure to be sure..
  18. 5 points
    Some seem to have forgotten this is a weather forum, bring on the full fury of mother nature I say.
  19. 5 points
  20. 5 points
    Theresa May has indicated that it would be in everyone's interest to have a two year transitional period to get everything tickety boo before we finally sever the cord. The fact that we haven't a clue as to what we actually want makes this imperative but that's by the by. What she hasn't explained to the electorate, yet again, is the legal complexity of a transitional period if the current status quo is to be maintained. Of course keeping the people in the dark vis the legal complexities of actually leaving the EU has been painfully obvious from the get go of this unmitigated disaster But then if you are merely promoting an ideology facts can be a great inconvenience. Anyway back to the main point. As Simon Nixon says in an article in the Times, devising a legally watertight way for the UK to continue to trade with the EU “on current terms” while no longer a member is likely to prove fiendishly difficult—some would argue impossible. Both British and EU officials acknowledge that they are at an early stage of grappling with the complexities. All of this again smacks of making policy up on the hoof and the reality is that the only legally watertight transition deal that is guaranteed to enable trade to continue on “current terms” is an agreement to extend the Article 50 deadline. Legal complexities make transition deal with the EU almost impossible https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/legal-complexities-make-transition-deal-with-the-eu-almost-impossible-wvxfzxsww
  21. 5 points
    Looking very impressive for a Cat 1 now...
  22. 4 points
    Good Evening Wierpig. Thanks very much for your extremely interesting reply. I do understand what are saying. As far as Chelmsford is concerned we have recently been voted the 6th best place in the country to live and so yes it is an attractive prosperous area to reside. Even within such a prosperous area there are pockets of poverty with areas in which one would not like to walk about late at night on one's own. Clive (High Pressure) knows of one passing through it to visit Chelmsford City's home ground (Melbourne) as well as a drug problem at the other side of the City (Great Baddow) There have also been a spate of stabbings and a murder in the last few months. As far as Melbourne is concerned it has always been a fairly rough area but it has got worse over the last few years as the council house were taken over by housing associations and locals are no longer given priority over those deemed to be of higher priority from further afield. There appears to be a tendency to allocate housing to misfits from London boroughs who they are only too pleased to be shot of. Some are from ethnic groups but some are white British. As far as I can see there is little difference with respect to the behaviour between the two. One of my sons was involved as an electrician in a new development in the city centre a couple of years ago. he was carrying out snagging work on the second phase of the development adjacent to the first phase which had been completed and into which tenants had moved in. In the short time the Social housing part (which incidentally was built to a higher specification to those for sale) were already showing signs of wear because of misuse/ill-treatment from the tenants most of whom had been transferred from southeast London. Even during the day my son noticed that youngsters were cycling around the development peddling drugs. (Perhaps it should be pedalling seeing as they were on bikes!) I know everyone deserves a chance and a roof over their heads but it is annoying when they are provided with a decent place to live and they behave this way. Again it was not an ethnic problem as the behaviour was universal irrespective of ethnic group When I was a youngster I lived in a nearby village called Writtle (famous for the first public radio broadcast in the world) which also boasted an agricultural college. It began taking in foreign students and I can remember my surprise as a youngster (probably about 5 years old when I saw my first black person.) Luckily we are more enlightened these days and there is a mix of nationalities within the city boundaries, but no real ghettos of particular nationality. The number of foreign people living in the city has been enhanced by our expanded university facilities. Chelmsford is the second fastest growing place in Britain and the 4th fastest in Europe, currently beset by gridlocked roads, packed doctors' surgeries and long queues in A and E because the infrastructure has failed abysmally to keep pace with the increase in the number of people living here. The situation will only get worse as we have been told that we will have to allow the building of an additional 8,000 houses (the latest demand from Government although this keeps increasing) within the next five years with further housing planned beyond that period. Here the problem is not the number of immigrants, although we have considerably more now than we did say 10 years ago, but the demand for housing from people either moving out of London because prices are lower here, plus people wishing to commute to London to work in the financial and associated industries in the capital. Locals, especially youngsters, are finding it increasingly difficult to afford to live here be it purchasing or renting a property. Again it is not because, at least directly, of immigration. Because we do not have ghettos we do not have racial tension. For my part I am all in favour of a multi-cultural society as long as the newcomers are willing to integrate. As I mentioned the other day my daughter in law is Filipino and we feel blessed to have her as part of our family. She is the proud mother of a 9 week old boy and we are doting grandparents. Apologies for the length of this posting but I wished to express how I feel as far as my locality is concerned Kind Regards Dave
  23. 4 points
    There are two sides to this story - I have often called for coherent reasons as to why we should be leaving and at the same time tried to give coherent reasons why we should remain but these are mainly ignored, or ridiculed by the leavers. I have said on a number of occasions that you never get in a situation as this with 100% right on one side and 100% wrong on the other - there are always pros and cons, yet the leavers often come over as they are 100% right and refuse to accept, or even discuss any ideas to the contrary in the real sense of having a debate. It is disappointing that opinions have become so polarised and this has led to a division we could well do without in these perilous times.
  24. 4 points
    Amazing noaa still have it at hurricane status south west of Ireland. Going to be one to watch closely.
  25. 4 points
    I must admit with a sad heart if a second ref was to take place i would vote leave this time,so would many who had previously voted remain whom i have spoken to. It is becoming more apparent the attitude of the EU,if you want to leave the cartel you have to pay the price basically. My experience over the last 15 years working in the EU system with regard to import and export of both goods and intellectual knowledge ie staff has made me very cynical i'm afraid. There are to many intellectuals in the EU organisation,not enough intelligent people,the two are very different. The regulations imposed have caused some good i agree but this is outweighed by the negative aspects caused in so many cases. We (as a company) have had to take legal action 3 times over the last 6 years,winning two and one still on going regarding basically idiotic regulations,thankfully most we can bypass now thanks to spending both money and time in altering how we work,all legal and above board. Sorry i don't have those rose tinted specs with regard to the EU and daily now that view is being reinforced not only to myself but many.
  26. 4 points
    I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!!
  27. 4 points
    Looking at the storm as a hybrid between hurricane and extra tropical storm might give some different insights particularly looking at it as extra tropical. In this case we have a jet streak looping around the storm as it moves up from off the coast of Spain to France with divergence aloft ahead of the storm. This would suggest rapid cyclogenesis (deepening of the low) as it approaches the UK.As the storm moves near to the coast of Ireland that jet streak swings across England. Strongest winds for a hurricane are near the eye whilst the strongest winds from a non tropical storm are under the jet stream. Looking at the ECMWF 850mb winds shows wind strengths in excess of 70 knots at 850MB (That is 90mph winds at 5000 feet) across much of the UK. Now ECMWF brings the low closer to the UK than some other models and winds at the surface will be a lot less than that, but it is worth bearing in mind. So we must be careful not to assign purely tropical attributes to this storm.Having said that Southern Ireland looks to have the brunt of this according to current modelling.
  28. 4 points
    Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...
  29. 4 points
    LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast make that £57 If it misses, then I'll just have to find a pub and get drunk win win
  30. 4 points
    I understand why you want to control immigration, BB; so do I. My point is that, based on your posting history, you appear to be a Conservative voter. Unfortunately, given that they've been in power (whether in Coalition or by themselves) for over seven years, I think it's reasonable to expect that they might have got round to making a significant dent in resettling illegal immigrants by now. Instead, we get a report that it's unlikely that anywhere near all of them will be removed from the country, and reference to Austerity policies resulting in successive cuts to the staffing levels of the very agency that's entrusted to run the system which will have made it even harder to send these people back from whence they came. If I were a Tory voter I'd be livid with the incompetence of 'my party' for this monumental cock-up. Etc....etc.....get my drift?
  31. 4 points
    Met Eireann have awoken from their slumber http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp Was reading the social media this morning and all that was saying was that Monday was going to be windy, nothing like the Daily Express headlines. I'm about 45 mins from Shannon airport with good access to M18 if anyone wants board and lodging!
  32. 4 points
    It'd be helpful if the UK would set out precisely what it believes it's liable for and what it believes that it is not liable for, according to the liabilities, agreements and commitments the UK has made as an EU member. ... but of course, if the UK does that, we might actually have some way of assessing the situation for what it is when the UK says "They wanted too much and it wasn't fair or right", not least, in part, because the EU can then set out its own argument too. Essentially, the UK Government doesn't want to set out any vision over it, because it can then say "What they were asking for is way over the top!" and leave the population of the UK with no way of knowing whether that was right or wrong, reasonable or not. They know full well that, presented with a large enough figure, people will accept that it's too big without any context - lies, damn lies, and statistics.
  33. 4 points
    the bull was believed by some on BOTH sides... thats the point! but the leavers i know had already made their minds up to vote out LONG before that £350 nonsense was aired. the notion that we voted to leave based on the £350 million nonsense is simply not true. the only anti foreigner things i saw were from the usual suspects, bnp and alike, who spout their rhetoric all year long. completely agree with your last line though, and ive said as much. the campaign on both sides was shambolic. that was camerons fault, HE lost the vote , i didnt expect the leavers to 'win', the remain campaign totally failed to get their points across chosing instead to try to scare us.... like osbornes 'every family will be £40k worse off' LIE. when you hear the 'experts' forecasting doom and gloom, we only had to think back to the time when the same experts were forecasting..... doom and gloom, an economic disaster, if we didnt accept the euro.. of course, on the other hand, there really is no compelling reason to stay in the eu .
  34. 4 points
    So tempted to book a flight to Dublin, hire a car and head south!! I mean when will we next see this happen? I’m not sure I can let it pass me by
  35. 4 points
    Michael Fish on the BBC news this evening and I still remember well the night of the Great Storm of '87 coming to our village in Kent, even though 30 years have passed, it was kind of burnt in the brain for life, as did the Burns Day Storm of 1990 and January 1987 snowstorm. Wow, wasn't '87 an exciting year for weather? Anyway, kind of eerie that another ex-hurricane like the Great Storm comes a-knocking exactly on the 30th anniversary, though probably not a UK landfall as it stands for now. But, nonetheless, seems surreal too that the NHC have a wind cone aimed at the British Isles
  36. 4 points
    18Z actually ups the "heat" for Monday - 16C uppers covering much of England in the early afternoon. 27C anyone??
  37. 3 points
    The unusually active hurricane season seems to be not going out with a whimper, as Ophelia now being a cat. 2 storm makes it the strongest an Atlantic hurricane that has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record. 18z still keeping Ophelia well west of Ireland, the 12z European models (UKMET-G, ECMWF and ARPEGE) tracking Ophelia over Ireland, be interesting if the Euros back west in the morning runs! Have updated my blog recently which is tracking Ophelia: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8492-tracking-hurricane-ophelia-heading-our-way-as-an-ex-tropical-storm
  38. 3 points
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 ...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin tonight. A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the Azores through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Santa Maria Island of the Azores Saturday and Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over Santa Maria Island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
  39. 3 points
    Latest ECM ensembles are much more varied than earlier on. All sorts of possibilities. About 30% primarily affect Ireland with gusts between 90mph and 115mph gusts depending on the particular ensemble member. Another 30% odd see very strong winds through both S Ireland and the Irish Sea with a few close to 100mph in this region (mostly 80-90mph maxes). About 10% now track through the Channel, with a couple of runs giving 90 mph winds for Cornwall and 75-85mph further along the S Coast. And some miss to the west of Ireland completely - one of them bizarrely skirts around the west of Ireland and hits western Scotland with 110mph gusts.
  40. 3 points
    Interesting to see how the various models are handling all this. The ECM has definitely wanted to take it east more than the GFS. Met Office model more in line with the GFS. This is from the model tracker in Extra - showing the last 8 (if available) runs from the GFS, ECM and Met Office Global Model for Monday at 1200. https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=modeltracker;sess=
  41. 3 points
    "Mull of Kintyre, Ophelia rolls in from the sea My desire is not to get blown away Oh, Mull of Kintyre" (Sung in a voice like a donkey being chainsawed)
  42. 3 points
    I think the chances of heavy snow this winter are very high especially on the hills of Scotland.Why because a few weeks ago Glencoe Mountain anounced that they were going to raise hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a Snow Factory capable of making hundreds of tonnes of snow at up to 25c to give them at least one run of snow throughout the season from Ist December to Ist May after last years lack of snow .The news in the last day that Cairngorm Mountain is also going to trial a Snow Factory for December and January now confirms that at least the Mountains of Scotland will get dumped on by the weather snow gods.
  43. 3 points
    I don't think I have ever been so pessimistic about the coming winter season. Normally at this time I am looking forward to winter but not this year, it might as well be April! However, on the plus side it's extremely unlikely that I will end up disappointed. The only way is up.......
  44. 3 points
    Headache? Tense, nervous headache? Take Brexit; nothing works faster than Brexit...Or, for even better results, take nothing. Simples!
  45. 3 points
    I know there's already this fear that current weather patterns are going to be stuck in a rut for a long time, and possibly spoiling yet another Winter season. But seriously aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here. At least it's only October. Surely there's plenty of scope for change yet. Besides even if temps we're below average now, it wouldn't guarantee Winter temps would also be. I believe Autumn 1974 was pretty chilly, but the Winter that followed has a bad reputation for cold fans. There's also that old saying about Ice in November to bear a duck, the following Winter will be rain and muck, or something like that. Not that that's always true as well, but it surely came from experience of such happening, probably more than once, which if nothing else illustrates that just because the weather's doing one thing now, doesn't mean it will still be doing it further down the road. Probably just better saving any concerns until Winter is actually imminent.
  46. 3 points
  47. 3 points
    It says that talks have broke down over the settlement fee To be honest if the money they are asking is way over the top then we have to put on a firm stance.
  48. 3 points
  49. 3 points
    Latest ECM Ensembles keeping it mostly to the West of Ireland too - I think chances are, we'll see it correct Westwards. With high pressure to our East, the models to like to underestimate the strength. We see this in winter all the time with Atlantic breakdowns. Ireland is going to be the place to be for this one, I think
  50. 3 points
    I don't think I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars nearby to Ireland/UK on a FAX chart. Potential for this to land at Category 1 strength that sounds surreal in itself.
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