Leaderboard

I don't often post in the mod thread unless there is something truly interesting on offer, but am an avid follower and just wanted to thank those who have continued posting their assessments even through quieter periods, especially Knocker in recent weeks. Do keep this up even when the silly season gets going! Re models, it looks like another scenario of settling down in the first week of October. That'll be the third in a row that high pressure moves in, last year in particular. Perhaps some lovely sunny days to bring out the autumn colours so long as the high migrates sufficiently north. It's longevity beyond a week though still looks questionable.

Hey up!!!,the gfs is at it again

This weekend can best be described as Autumnal. Currently the main depression is south of Iceland with the UK in a south westerly airstream. Cloudy with showers in Wales and the south west spreading east through the day. North west England, N. Ireland and Scotland may well see the best of the sunny intervals.Late in the day the main low has drifted north and the next low and frontal systems, containing the absorbed Lee, are rapidly approaching from the west. By 12 Sunday the the new low is west of Ireland 977mb and the fronts have brought a fair amount of rain and quite strong wins to most but particularly N. Ireland and Scotland. Over the next 24 hours the low tracks north east to be north of Scotland thus the surface wind veers north west over N. Ireland, England and Wales with many blustery showers but with the continuation of more organized rain and strong winds over Scotland. At the same time ex tropical storm Maria is west of Cornwall busy being absorbed into the frontal system which will affect the SW/S as it swings SE during Monday.courtesy of the Azores high pressure building to the west; This duly moves east tending to squashes as the gfs nods in the direction that the ecm took last evening when it produced some ex[plosive cyclonenesis. Namely an elongated upper trough to the west of the HP which spawns a number of lows, one of which tracks north east over the next 24 hours running close to Scotland bringing some rain and wind but without any explosive deepening. Needs to be kept an eye on though. The battle between the upstream energy and the Azores continues with the next low arriving on the scene over Scotland bringing more rain and potentially strong winds on Friday. Despite a generally unsettled picture it is very much a N/S split as seen by the rainfall figures with many places being relatively dry but with potentially one or two vigorous depressions around it may be wise to keep an open mind for next week

I know it's right at the end of FI and has practically zero chance of happening but, looks like quite a potent arctic blast lining up in the GFS. Roll on winter!

Looking at this morning's GEFS and EPS mean anomalies and last night's NOAA there is little indication of any sign of anything apart from a continuation of changeable weather in the next 14 days. This doesn't of course preclude periods when the Azores HP may be briefly more influential with the surface high cell most likely to be parked to the south west So the general pattern in our neck of the woods is an upper low over N. Canada with associated trough Scandinavia giving a zonal westerly flow across the Atlantic with Azores struggling to push north. How successful it will be will be determined by the det. runs but the percentage play is the remain unsettled with a north/south bias and temps around average. And as previously stated no indication of any variation in the ext period.

There's something for everyone on the Gfs 12z which shows some pleasant settled weather at times, especially further south with chilly nights bringing mist and fog patches and cold enough for a touch of frost in rural areas but there is also some chilly unsettled spells too, especially further north, possibly cold enough for some wintry ppn on the Scottish mountains at times. We are heading towards more interesting times for coldies if we get polar / arctic maritime incursions..hopefully there will be plenty of that during the coming months!

Snow on the way by the end of the Gfs 00z..

Nothing wrong with private forecasting companies The Met Office do a lot of great things, but many things need improvement on the public facing side of things. It infuriates me that, despite the Met Office being funded by the taxpayer, they hold onto so much data. The National Weather Service and NOAA in the US put them to shame.

That's very kind of them. I'd have been tempted to leave the Beeb in the lurch and show what happens when the private contractor lets you down. Edit: I might have a bee in my bonnet about this, and have an amazing love of the UK Met Office.

Blizzard alert!! The gfs develops a low in the circulation of the Iceland low in the vicinity of the front on Wednesday and intensifies it and whips it east into southern Norway bringing copious amounts of snow to that area Relax Sidney

A couple of off topic posts deleted. There are relevant threads for discussing climate change, although if your sole intention is to pay no attention to science then please stay away from those areas

Not sure that a trial which took place 40 years ago really has any validity now. Cars, lighting, cities, human behaviour etc is radically different now to what it was back then. Personally, I'm happy for it to stay as it is. We still have the same amount of light no matter what we do, moving it around doesn't change much really.

You mean we get a break!? WooHoo! One tires of too much death and destruction. To be fair, if anything developed at the moment there's about a million ways it could trip over the wake of one of the most recent two anyway.

Well we were all rooting for the Sphinx, but the news from Iain Cameron today doesn't sound promising.

Annnnnnnd....... I'm Back! A month later than usual, but strapping myself in for the Great British Annual Snow Hunt! I say it every year, but this year is the one... Another 2010 on its way!

I'm not sure why the warnings for wind and rain were posted in here? I don't have any time to read stuff or look at the charts much, so when I saw that there was activity in this thread, I thought there was a possibility of some convective weather, but none of which is related.

September 84 was cool overall, following a hot July and August. The October and early part of November was warmish that year. The winter that followed was freezing cold. This was the start of a run of cold winters, and poorer summers during the mid 80s

13.8 to the 29th 0.2 above the 61 to 90 average 0.3 below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________________ Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

I find them a bit pointless as well they don't really add anything to the posts if you find them pointless annoying etc you can easily add him to your ignore list which will hide his posts unless they are quoted https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3631101 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3629910 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3630404 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3628233 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3631993 Those are just a few from the past few weeks

10.2

A month or so too early but there are some epic GFS charts showing up for the time of year. Would certainly cull the CET.

Yellow combines out in force this afternoon on the Black Isle. I hope none get stuck! Bizarre but just coincidence how most of our rain the last few days has been nocturnal. I think Moray (as in @Northernlights's patch) has been especially wet this last few weeks, just based on my occasionally obsessive radar watching. I was lucky to get back home from my ride today just as the sky opened briefly. We went to see Wind River this evening - I was looking forward to some procedural cop stuff in the snow but it's not like that at all, it was at times brutal, harrowing and intense, but still pretty snowy. Fake snow mostly.

Actually, you are not far off with assessment. I believe that there has been research done on this very topic and I think the main consensus was that the high pressure belt is expanding northwards.

I personally think it's a bit childish but each to their own. Doesn't really do much harm unless in excess. If you're finding it that unbearable there is always the ignore function for individual posters

This post been a case in point. Do the "amusing" GIFs add anything to the post? https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3631993

Ryan Maue is my source of knowledge on this question. At -70 cold air convection enables hurricanes to evolve towards Cat 4. Current QBO state raises Tropospheric heights and provides opportunity to reach the colder convection I.e Maria Maue states that this is the base requirements for Pacific Super Typhoons. -70 C, followed by crucial 3-4 hours of eye temp increases to produce environment for CAT 5,5+. * This next section is my thoughts on the similarities in physical development of powerful Hurricanes to strong Polar Vortices. The colder the convection the stronger the PV. The more electromagnetism from solar output the most increased heights for PV to reach and the colder the convection. The shringage caused by less solar electromagnetism during hibernation then the weaker the PV. Less rigid, more flabby and therefore more susceptible to break down.

I've recently read a theory that, in the last 30 years, global warming has bloated the Azores High and other sub-tropical high pressure systems (the Hadley Cell) way beyond it's usual, historic autumn and winter latitudes. Looking at the models the last week I'd say that it's ready to form in it's autumn/winter/interesting-weather killing position once again. Even in poor summers the SE benefits from the over-inflation of the Azores high and its ridging into France and it is now pretty rare to get truly awful summers in the SE quarter of the UK these days. This is something I'm going to be looking out for this winter. The funny thing is, if the high becomes ridiculously bloated it could end up in and around Greenland, accidentally plunging us into the freezer!

Good Weekend Folks! Looks like a rollercoaster ride especially from ecm ,gfs less so , but with a strong jet stream making its home across the nation it really looks like a traditional mix of rain wind cold ,even frost as weak ridges develop and milder days too, but the next few days ahead look interesting , with extropical activity moving towards us...... Just watch the skies in the next day or two and some of us will see something interesting

Lunch arrives on Wrangel Island, and 230 polar bears show up for the feast A bowhead whale beached on the remote outpost in the Arctic Ocean, and the news spread fast among the island's bears. http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/features/lunch-arrives-on-wrangel-island-and-230-polar-bears-show-up-for-the-feast/

Once the weekend is out of the way the ecm has the Azores high pressure ridging north to the west of the UK but more of interest it has an upper trough centred near Greenland stretching a long way south west This spawns some very active lows in the region north east of Florida and one of them tracks quickly north east on a very strong jet which curves around the aforementioned ridge to pass close to northern Scotland 968mb 00 Thursday as explosive cyclogenesis takes place.Obviously this is a few days away but as it stands it could bring gales or severe gales to Scotland and also a fair wack of rain as the associated fronts slip south easy over Thursday. Need to see if this develops.

Going by this tweet from Matt Hugo the weekend won't see that much rain away from western Scotland https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/913839568251752449

The answer Styx is both.A lack of snowfall in winter or the extended winter and warmer averages in summer.You only have to go back to the 1800s when Cross fell in the pennines held snow for 10 months of the year gives an indication how the climate has changed .

Some heavy convective showers around aviemore

An overview.

Yep, if this was Mid winter and I had faith in long range GFS I'd be quite exited looking at this!! Shame it's not, still, nice to see what "could" be!!

13.8 to the 28th 0.1 above the 61 to 90 average 0.3 below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________________ Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

10 for me please

I'm rather jealous of the views my daughter enjoys from her new house in Rochester with a wonderful panarama over the town and the Medway estuary. But more importantly, it's a belter for weather watching. Here's one of the cumulus yesterday morning and she tells me storms are amazing!

Shame that the back end of this month has reverted to "summer extension" after a good start.

The thing is that most months are warmer than average these days. Even this month after being comfortably below average has now gone back to average thanks to the recent rise in temperatures. Personally, I am not even wishing for a cold winter anymore (as it is so hard to achieve). I just want some notable cold spells that can give some hard frost and snow that doesn't melt in a few hours.

Thunderstorms in parts of the Caribbean look much more organised today. Potential tropical development in the coming days: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane-central

13.7 to the 27th Bang on the 61 to 90 average 0.5 below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________________ Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

Was about to say the same thing. It would be totally idiotic to change anything based on that particular study.

Bear in mind that I was attending secondary school during the Sixties and finishing time was 4pm which was the norm for that time. So under GMT schoolkids were going home in the dark and all-year BST meant going home in the light. There was also far less traffic around back then and the standard of driving was very much higher (I passed my motorcycle test in May 1968). However nowadays schools finish around 3pm so schoolkids are going home in the light under both GMT or GMT+1.

As usual these photos don't do it justice, but I was greeted with this incredible sunset after a weak weather front!

I hear that the changeover is imminent. And that example is why we need proper meteorologists doing the forecasts. Real forecasters who know about the weather would realise when data is wrong, presenters like Carol may not necessarily know. Sadly, more thought is given to the presenting skills rather than the knowledge of on screen forecasters.

11.3