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With the recent low well away in the east for the next two or three days the the UK will be in a north westerly airstream, veering northerly, thus a showery regime for all but particularly the north and west, some of which may be thundery with hail. With the Azores high pressure ridging to the west and gradually moving east the wind will abate and the showers become much less by the weekend. By Sunday the ridge is trending more to the north east under the combined pressure of the trough in the west and the low pressure area to the east resulting in most of the UK becoming drier and more settled with just the south east still retaining some showery activity. Under pressure from the trough in the west the ridge gradually subsides as weak fronts cross the country before the next little low tracks north east across Scotland bringing some wet weather with it Tuesday evening and elsewhere on Wednesday as the associated fronts track south east Then ensues a brief battle between the trough/Azores aka the cooler and warmer air to the west which the former wins hands down and the next quite deep low arrives by the end of the week which could bring some nasty weather , including severe gales, to the north. But that is a long way off and should merely be noted at the moment I feel. So all in all not quite as benign as one would have expected next week with the upper ridge to the east and north not aligned to mitigated eastwards tracking of the troughs. Need to see the GEFS and ecm before attributing too much confidence in this evolution

Thunder!!! Thank you trough for tracking this way for once.

Just got back from Filey and i saw a funnel cloud north of Malton on the A64,i was trying to get off on a junction so i could get a photo of it,but by the time i got into a position out of the damn trees it had gone,also there was a dark scud type cloud from the ground to the shower base just left of the funnel but that had lifted too so i was gutted not to get any pics of this i did see a few flashes of lightning off the Filey brigg last night though at around 1am.

It's underway

A stark contrast to the temperature of last year indeed, let's hope we will have a different outcome this year with winter as well,have a feeling we will have a front loaded cold weather,its my last one in Wicklow mountains before returning to Slovakia for good to a nice mountainous village(800m.asl) where winter can be fairytale

It certainly does look like we could see an appreciably below average month (at least 1C below the 1981-2010 average) if we see a pattern like this in the final third of the month. Personally i love it. After many mild and dull September's we finally have one which feels like proper Autumn. Cool and windy, reminding you of winter to come.

A first half of September (1st to 15th) at or below 14.0 seems cool by recent standards but long-term the average is 14.2 and it's only recently that sub-14 became unusual. 2013 and 2015 finished 13.8 and 13.0, but one then has to go back to 2001 (13.9) and before that, to 1992-94 when the first half averaged 12.7, 13.5 and 13.1. For anything colder than 1992 (12.7) we then need to go back to 1986 (11.2) which was colder than every first half except for 10.7 (1807), 11.1 (1931) and the 11.2 (1908) which tied 1986. Others that were sub-12 include 1816, 1925 and 1952 (11.4), 1860 (11.5), 1850 (11.6), 1836 (11.8), 1873 and 1894 (11.9) while 1965 and some earlier years finished on 12.0.

Lol superstorm trump ?

Got to be a better option then Hurricane MayBot !

A sharp but short lived spike of CAPE showing for early hours of tomorrow in Liverpool bay and coastal areas, probably another trough like this morning. Steering Winds are NW veering NNW 20-30 mph. Let's see what happens.

The daily value was about 13.9, so a 0.1 drop seems about right. Central England Temperature.

Interestingly the ecm does stick more to the anomaly script next week with the energy/upper flow being diverted north east and thus the systems tracking like wise allowing the Azores to hang in there and remain quite influential Apart from the odd wobble when a system sneaks in from the south west it just about manages until the end of the run when a large deep trough is parked south of Iceland with the associated troughs orientated N/S down western Ireland. So next week becoming predominately dry apart from Friday but the detail for the week is a long way from being settled.

I'm glad you got to join in. probably got another hour before things start to die out. My seventh thunder day for this year, around average for here.

Lots of cells coming ashore here, 2 with thunder. Something just developing near you, watch out. Not much fuel to sustain it over land though.

Cake buildup? Nice! (i'm presuming auto-correct is being a pain)

The anomalies this evening are in the same ball park and not looking too bad. The key features of the upper pattern relevant to the UK are the strong east European ridge that stretches into the eastern Arctic, The Greenland trough and the other trough to the south east in Central Europe. Thus a quite strong westerly upper flow over the central Atlantic which then splits in the east with part tracking north and resulting in a much slacker flow over the UK. running down to the European trough. Thus pressure on the Azores HP from the energy emitted upstream is much reduced and it can ridge more in the vicinity of the UK. This portends much more settled weather with the north catching the brunt of any systems that nip along. Temps around average but a fair diurnal variation. Into the ext period there is not that good agreement but the signs are quite positive with perhaps the Atlantic trough retrogressing a tad and the dominate features still remain the east European ridge and positive anomalies north of the UK with the continuation of a slack flow over the UK. They vary on how much influence the Azores will have in the vicinity of the UK, the EPS which I can't post being the most bullish I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at this range vis surface details but suffice it to say in general it looks quite a benign scenario with light winds and temps picking up a tad.

I do hope you're not implying Hurricane Jeremy would be all wind and p!ss? Lol

Turning out to be the start to a proper Autumn fingers crossed,so much better than the last few years...an actual season! Leaves just starting to turn, sound of the fallen ones in the wind,the so much better light with that mellow feel.for me the best time of year by far. Very happy indeed and still warm enough for working in shorts! Can't complain at all!

Great to see Iain Cameron's excitement about the first snow of the season on Ben Nevis today!

There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Loads of little cells on radar, just missing us at the moment. However, I'm on my motorbike today so storms, if you're reading this, please wait until I get home!

Really enjoying today,feeling lovely and fresh,great in shorts!

Edit to the above - well I never, Les Arcs at Arc 2000 has wet snow falling and covering everything, in fact it's falling quite heavily; 1800 and 1600 both have it as rain. Arc 2000: https://www.lesarcs.com/livecam-arc2000.html#ong333 Lauberhorn: https://panocam.skiline.cc/lauberhorn

That wind is decidedly fresh, but it's nice enough in the sun between some lovely convective cloudscapes. Reminds me more of March when we often get unsettled convective northwesterlies with clear polar air but strengthening sun, despite still being cool/chilly. Plenty more to come over the next few days it looks like - Saturday could feel very autumnal before a warmer day on Sunday.

Strke to the East of the city earlier....lots of convection apparent

I have to give the heating a quick burst for the first time since last winter today. I can't remember the last time I had to do that in September.

14.2 to the 13th 0.1 below the 61 to 90 average 0.7 below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________________ Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

UKMO shows high pressure never really getting over the UK parts of the south may see some longer drier spells for a time but on the whole, no significant spell of settled weather is shown

It's worth Looking on the GFS for spikes in CAPE/LI which can indicate a trough like we have this morning which was showing as a spike for awhile so I was prepared for something. There is another Spike early hours tomorrow which could be another trough.

It developed just to the south of me... I just caught the distant thunder. I agree, not much to sustain it over land, but hey, it's much better than what we had at the beginning and first half of this year, so I'll take it.

And here we go, sferics developing. GFS wants 900 j/kg CAPE for Liverpool bay in 2 hours, has 500 for now.

The Ecm 12z shows much better weather next week for most areas compared to this week with a ridge of high pressure building in bringing plenty of fine weather with sunny spells and lighter winds, especially further s / e with just more north-western parts of the uk having some Atlantic weather pushing in for a time following a fine spell early next week and looking ahead to day 10 and beyond it continues largely fine and benign across the uk with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine followed by chilly nights where skies clear with mist / fog patches..the friendlier face of autumn compared to the wet and windy conditions!

This evening is the first to produce that real autumn chill, thanks to the polar airstream, the low level sunlight was superb, and you could see your breathe when you breathed, temperatures 10 degrees at 6pm.. many a eve in Jan and Feb milder than that..

Aye spotted them though did get a rumble of thunder earlier for third time in a week .

Anvils in the Irish Sea, it's that time of day again. Just a light breeze last night, a bit let down to be honest. Talk about anti-climax.

We were on holiday in Mexico at the time but thankfully near Cancun so only felt the sort of minor tremors we occasionally get in the UK. still it was enough to send people rushing out of rooms and the evacuation of the night club in our hotel. certainly glad we were several hundred miles from the epicentre.

told you before about cheese, he's great, gets very upset about posts on here

Not long to go....

What a difference a year makes...

Hi Rob. I use the nearest Met Office station to check my data, but I'm lucky to have one a few miles down the road. Your nearest MO station is Shoreham which is about 15 miles away from you(?) and nearer the coast - so might not be so good for comparisons. Anyway, here's the Shoreham page at the time of writing - shows a max gust of 49 mph at 03.00: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpcv5gkw Also, I see you have a station on Weather Underground and they do a "Wundermap" page with surrounding observations. Don't know how accurate/reliable it is though: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

That was a bit wild! The strongest winds here occurred between 05.00 and 06.00 this morning with a max gust of 50 mph at 05.07. The lawn at the end of my back garden is littered with broken-off small branches from my four trees.

1950 is an interesting comparison also. I'm not old enough to remember, but the data shows a warm June and notably wet September. The August CET also identical to 2017 and overall spring and summer rainfall totals are very similar (June appears to have been more anticyclonic despite the similar CET value). October 1950 was warmer than 1992 but was much drier after the wet start to Autumn, but like 1992 it then turned wetter into November. Both 1992 and 1950 featured a colder December than we've been used to recently (1.2C in 1950 and 3.6C in 1992).

Just as a slight nod of interest here is the GFS ensembles & the CFS runs relating to the 10MB zonal wind The GFS continues to show a surpressed zonal wind with it running mainly below the average for the time of year- Its not that significant & wouldnt be 'that' significant until we land in December as we found last year !! What raised my eyebrow is the CFS control run which brings the zonal mean into negative territory which it would be well outside the 'norm' here it is S

Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C -1.8C below normal.

This year's beginning to remind me of 1992 If we get a few nice days at the end of this month, I think my October guess is going to involve thinking it will be a tad chilly!

A lot of trees now turning and dropping leaves round here. Looks lovely though me thinking its early is probably more a reflection that they've seen no real heat since July and we finally have a seasonal September. I do hope we get a cold and sunny October though. Last year produced wonderous colours.

The conker trees are about 2-3 weeks ahead of all the other varieties. We'll lose a lot of leaves tonight

Interesting, if that pans out then a below average September could be in the offing. Only two thirds of the way through the month in a week's time but still, the potential is there. (NB feel free to mercilessly mock me for using the dreaded p word)