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Showing content with the highest reputation on 14/09/17 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    With the recent low well away in the east for the next two or three days the the UK will be in a north westerly airstream, veering northerly, thus a showery regime for all but particularly the north and west, some of which may be thundery with hail. With the Azores high pressure ridging to the west and gradually moving east the wind will abate and the showers become much less by the weekend. By Sunday the ridge is trending more to the north east under the combined pressure of the trough in the west and the low pressure area to the east resulting in most of the UK becoming drier and more settled with just the south east still retaining some showery activity. Under pressure from the trough in the west the ridge gradually subsides as weak fronts cross the country before the next little low tracks north east across Scotland bringing some wet weather with it Tuesday evening and elsewhere on Wednesday as the associated fronts track south east Then ensues a brief battle between the trough/Azores aka the cooler and warmer air to the west which the former wins hands down and the next quite deep low arrives by the end of the week which could bring some nasty weather , including severe gales, to the north. But that is a long way off and should merely be noted at the moment I feel. So all in all not quite as benign as one would have expected next week with the upper ridge to the east and north not aligned to mitigated eastwards tracking of the troughs. Need to see the GEFS and ecm before attributing too much confidence in this evolution
  2. 4 points
    Thunder!!! Thank you trough for tracking this way for once.
  3. 3 points
    A stark contrast to the temperature of last year indeed, let's hope we will have a different outcome this year with winter as well,have a feeling we will have a front loaded cold weather,its my last one in Wicklow mountains before returning to Slovakia for good to a nice mountainous village(800m.asl) where winter can be fairytale
  4. 3 points
    It certainly does look like we could see an appreciably below average month (at least 1C below the 1981-2010 average) if we see a pattern like this in the final third of the month. Personally i love it. After many mild and dull September's we finally have one which feels like proper Autumn. Cool and windy, reminding you of winter to come.
  5. 3 points
    A first half of September (1st to 15th) at or below 14.0 seems cool by recent standards but long-term the average is 14.2 and it's only recently that sub-14 became unusual. 2013 and 2015 finished 13.8 and 13.0, but one then has to go back to 2001 (13.9) and before that, to 1992-94 when the first half averaged 12.7, 13.5 and 13.1. For anything colder than 1992 (12.7) we then need to go back to 1986 (11.2) which was colder than every first half except for 10.7 (1807), 11.1 (1931) and the 11.2 (1908) which tied 1986. Others that were sub-12 include 1816, 1925 and 1952 (11.4), 1860 (11.5), 1850 (11.6), 1836 (11.8), 1873 and 1894 (11.9) while 1965 and some earlier years finished on 12.0.
  6. 2 points
    I'm glad you got to join in. probably got another hour before things start to die out. My seventh thunder day for this year, around average for here.
  7. 2 points
    Lots of cells coming ashore here, 2 with thunder. Something just developing near you, watch out. Not much fuel to sustain it over land though.
  8. 2 points
    Cake buildup? Nice! (i'm presuming auto-correct is being a pain)
  9. 2 points
    The anomalies this evening are in the same ball park and not looking too bad. The key features of the upper pattern relevant to the UK are the strong east European ridge that stretches into the eastern Arctic, The Greenland trough and the other trough to the south east in Central Europe. Thus a quite strong westerly upper flow over the central Atlantic which then splits in the east with part tracking north and resulting in a much slacker flow over the UK. running down to the European trough. Thus pressure on the Azores HP from the energy emitted upstream is much reduced and it can ridge more in the vicinity of the UK. This portends much more settled weather with the north catching the brunt of any systems that nip along. Temps around average but a fair diurnal variation. Into the ext period there is not that good agreement but the signs are quite positive with perhaps the Atlantic trough retrogressing a tad and the dominate features still remain the east European ridge and positive anomalies north of the UK with the continuation of a slack flow over the UK. They vary on how much influence the Azores will have in the vicinity of the UK, the EPS which I can't post being the most bullish I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at this range vis surface details but suffice it to say in general it looks quite a benign scenario with light winds and temps picking up a tad.
  10. 2 points
    I do hope you're not implying Hurricane Jeremy would be all wind and p!ss? Lol
  11. 2 points
    Turning out to be the start to a proper Autumn fingers crossed,so much better than the last few years...an actual season! Leaves just starting to turn, sound of the fallen ones in the wind,the so much better light with that mellow feel.for me the best time of year by far. Very happy indeed and still warm enough for working in shorts! Can't complain at all!
  12. 2 points
    Great to see Iain Cameron's excitement about the first snow of the season on Ben Nevis today!
  13. 1 point
    And here we go, sferics developing. GFS wants 900 j/kg CAPE for Liverpool bay in 2 hours, has 500 for now.
  14. 1 point
    Aye spotted them though did get a rumble of thunder earlier for third time in a week .
  15. 1 point
    Anvils in the Irish Sea, it's that time of day again. Just a light breeze last night, a bit let down to be honest. Talk about anti-climax.
  16. 1 point
    told you before about cheese, he's great, gets very upset about posts on here
  17. 1 point
  18. 1 point
    Hi Rob. I use the nearest Met Office station to check my data, but I'm lucky to have one a few miles down the road. Your nearest MO station is Shoreham which is about 15 miles away from you(?) and nearer the coast - so might not be so good for comparisons. Anyway, here's the Shoreham page at the time of writing - shows a max gust of 49 mph at 03.00: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpcv5gkw Also, I see you have a station on Weather Underground and they do a "Wundermap" page with surrounding observations. Don't know how accurate/reliable it is though: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
  19. 1 point
    Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!
  20. 1 point
    Sunny Sheffield at 13.6C -1.8C below normal.
  21. 1 point
    This year's beginning to remind me of 1992 If we get a few nice days at the end of this month, I think my October guess is going to involve thinking it will be a tad chilly!
  22. 1 point
    A lot of trees now turning and dropping leaves round here. Looks lovely though me thinking its early is probably more a reflection that they've seen no real heat since July and we finally have a seasonal September. I do hope we get a cold and sunny October though. Last year produced wonderous colours.
  23. 1 point
    The conker trees are about 2-3 weeks ahead of all the other varieties. We'll lose a lot of leaves tonight
  24. 1 point
    That is an interesting topic, and some studies were done about it, but i cant remember the authors or titles. Anyhow, I decided to take a look myself at the basic raw data. Making a correlation of DJF 500mb and the atlantic ACE index prior to the winter, looking at years 1980-2016. The obvious -ve NAO tendency falls out. The correlation factor is not too high for great confidence, but its enough to show a potential signal. So I decided to make a graphic with ACE, AO and NAO, for future reference. It is to be used to look at any specific years. There are some years that have high ACE/-ve NAO and vice versa. So I decided to make a scatter plot. Here we can see that lower ACE years are pretty random with AO and NAO. But, as we go higher, especially above 150, the tendency for more negative -AO/NAO increases. The exceptions are 98 and 99, being strong La Nina years. This is just raw data and a lot could be analysed further down the line. And a bonus graphic, a correlation of autumn polar vortex with ACE. This basically shows a small indication that the polar vortex might tend to be weaker with higher the ACE goes.
  25. 1 point
    Sunday morning snowfall at 2130m. This picture above the resort of Gargellen close to the Swiss border.Gargellen is one of my favourite ski resorts. Hope to make a visit during the season. C
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