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Worth a mention.... ECM 192 shows an area of -2- -3c uppers covering Scotland in a brisk North west wind certainly an opportunity for a Frost T'up north - maybe even some wintryness over the Scottish mountains!

The NE quadrant must be strong, Florid has been skewed 90 degrees

Not normally a hurricane follower but this one does the air of something historic about it. A bitter sweet one following this - on the one hand enjoying seeing the power of nature, but on the other hand very aware of the devastation it is going to cause. Wouldn't want this tracking up the Solent!!!

My jaw dropped! Absolutely beautiful, breathtaking... and damned scary...

I know a few of trump's properties are in the line of fire with Irma , I'd like her to leave them be just for Jose.

Nhc updated at 10am and confirmed the winds had reduced and that the current 155kts might be generous. They have pressure at 920mb, it's probably a little lower. Since the 10am update though Irma has suddenly turned nasty. Cloud tops have cooled conisderablu and t number s have increased dramatically to 7.4. The eye itself is clearly no Longer circular and has taken on an uneven shape. The eye wall is pushing under stress which might be a precursor to a collapse or reinforcement only time will tell

Feeling stunned especially with the imminent risk of a repeat from Jose. Where will all these shocked and homeless people sleep tonight, next week, next month? How will the Government of Antigua and Barbuda find the money to rebuild virtually the entirety of Barbuda's infrastructure and houses? With Irma churning mercilessly onwards, focus will inevitably be on the risk to Florida and this small island's struggle and the struggles of St Martin, St Barthélemy, Anguilla et al may get lost in that coverage. I hope not. Just hoping that Jose's track avoids Barbuda and the other damaged Leeward Islands.

I'll keep this brief as I'm beginning to sound like a stuck record. Still differences in the medium term with the anomalies vis the orientation of the UK trough and the influence of the Azores HP in mid Atlantic where the ecm has a flatter more westerly upper flow. This will obviously impact the det. outputs so suffice it to say unsettled in this period with temps depressed but perhaps the high pressure taking closer order late in the period. On to the here and now. today sees a cold front across the country tracking east so basically rain in the northern half of the UK and drier in the south. Tomorrow the low to the NW moves into Scotland so more wet weather there and elsewhere with fronts never far away. Saturday midday sees the low 992mb in the North Sea leaving the UK in a showery north westerly airstream with the odd perturbation sneaking south in the western flank of the circulation. But after a very transitional ridge by 12 on Sunday the next low 977mb has arrived WNW of the Hebrides with the associated fronts and rain orientated Scotland/Wales/Cornwall with a strong westerly wind with gales in Wales and southern England, maybe even severe gale in exposed areas. Over the next 24hours the low tracks across Scotland into the North Sea thus veering the surface wind north westerly with frequent showers that will effect most areas, perhaps heavy and thundery. A familiar story then ensues with some brief ridging before the next low and fronts arrive Tuesday evening portending some more very wet weather accompanied by gales with the strong jet running from the WNW straight over the UK

Might be better to take this if the storm surge is high and its not fetish wear ....

7pm. and Bz nicely tipping south at approx -10° Auroral oval showing a red indicator, 90% chance, over Russia atm so as skys darken here hopefully it will swing round to favour the British Isles. Weather has been abysmal all day here and it's still cloudy but looking a bit brighter. Will assess situation after dark and decide if it's worth a trip.

good point because otherwise his properties "would have the biggest destruction, by the biggest hurricane, which is thousands time bigger than the biggest hurricane ever, in the world, ever" ...

I'm not surprised ... there will be some very clenched buttocks with the latest ECM showing this!

OK, this is pretty damn pathetic here, and I feel pretty bad for asking, but it seems that I've accidentally managed to get my partner emotionally invested in a tree. I've read reports that Hector survived, albeit badly damaged. Can anyone confirm?

I want to get some more snow pictures in before it's too late! Something to savor perhaps, before the snow arrives proper in Europe. At 860m... Cradle Mountain Hotel, Tasmania. Most of Tasmania's western side is forested, mountainous and sparsely populated, with remote forest and mining operations, the odd tourism lodge, and mountain passes. Maybe even thylacines Having a tough time dealing with so much snow out there...

Another fine day, breezy, sunny intervels and a maximum of 17c. Finally finished the last batch of this seasons hay and baled the last straw field last night. Have done more outside work that needs dry weather in the last four days than in the last four weeks so tired contented farmer but only for a week or so as cows about to calve. At least if the forecast rain and wind arrives then we are up to date as we can be.

Edit not the place stated in the end! Really picking up on the FB feed now though.

He's back again

Love following this thread as summer heads into autumn and we all start to look at the N Hemisphere and how it starts to shape up as winter draws closer.

Don't see what all the fuss is about; September is an Autumn month, but can, at times, have 'summer like' weather. Its the same with a cold spell in November, its still Autumn, but can feel 'like' winter. As for March 2013, that was one of the best winter months ever.

The gfs and ecm are more or less on the same page with a continuation of the unsettled weather in the reasonable time frame albeit differences with the detail. This evening the ecm has the next low 974mb centred south of Iceland 12z on Sunday with associated fronts lying Scotland/west Irish Sea. Over the next 24 hours they all move east bringing rain followed by hefty showers and strong W/NW winds particularly in Wales , N. Ireland and England. Thus by 12z Monday the low is over Scotland. On Tuesday some brief transitional ridging before the next set of fronts, and rain, arrive by 00z Wednesday in the strong WNW flow with the jet in the region of 130kts. These track quickly east and the depression north of Scotland tracks SE into southern Norway introducing a coll showery airstream over the UK. In this fluid pattern one suspects that this is open to changes still next week.

And another X class flare..

So what happened last night? Stayed up untill midnight and saw the first M class CME from the 5th. arrive. Solarham have virtually real time graphs and the kick is quite pbvious. Loooking at the plots, the solar wind speed wasn't too bad but Bz magnetic orientation was barely South at any time. All in all, so far not much of an event. About Kp4 max and we really need KP 6 or above. Have seen one really nice pic on FB of a bright red aurora over Ben Nevis from last night but here on the East it was persistent low cloud that not even the almost full moon could penetrate. So I went to bed! Today is another day though but the weather is really keech with drizzle interspersed with heavy showers. Hopefully it will improve later.

Netweathers been showing this for the past two days. I would have expected the risk to go to 0% by now (as per usual!) but is hasn't so maybe I might get something tomorrow evening?

The ECM London ens maintains a steady rise in pressure from Tuesday

Models are looking exciting to me, proper autumn weather.

Climate change unfortunately. People have been warned often enough what will happen if action isn't taken to tackle the problem.

Possibly a two-faced analysis is appropriate this morning as Irma's eyewall has become less symmetrical but at the same time the CDO has recovered on the western side such that the braoder structure is more symmetrical. As such one could conclude that if the eyewall sorts itself out again within the next few hours, another round of strengthening is likely to take place. Whether that'd be to more than 185 mph it remains to be seen. Heat content increases for the storm over the Bahamas, but so does land interaction, albeit to a very minor extent. I've not been able to locate a wind shear forecast as my usual sources have been inundated with impact-related discussions (understandably so). I expect I'm not alone, though, in suspecting that the true peak winds edged nearer 190 or so for a time during the dip in pressure sub-910 mb. It depends of course on how the surrounding pressure environment has changed, if at all; higher than usual pressure around the storm has allowed for stronger winds than usual relative to core pressure so if that conditions has subsided at all, the dip in pressure will have been balanced against with winds not peaking above the 185 figure. It does appear that the NHC have been running with, supported by recon data where possible. I want to believe that the storm has hit its lifetime peak and will not pack quite such an extreme punch for the Bahamas, but storms like Joaquin of recent years indicate that a second peak in Irma can't be ruled out at this time. Fingers crossed it doesn't come to pass.

Nice work if you can get it.

A sunny, cheerful start but cool after an overnight min of 9.5C. A max of only 17C yesterday. Pressure has been dropping slowly since 21.00 last night (down 5 hPa to 1011 hPa overnight) and a look out west to what's heading our way is not encouraging, so this lovely early sunshine not set to last. A rather unsettled weekend on the way and Sunday looking the day to keep an eye on. Current Arpege output suggesting gusts up to 90 km (55 mph) for exposed coastal fringes:

Estofex for the south http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017090906_201709070708_2_stormforecast.xml

@lassie23 they've chosen to use your name I now pronounce you famous. All hail storm Larry

All parked up ready to fly. Take off video 21421699_1468082453283093_6916336607280758784_n.mp4

Eh fur 3k Cheggars ah would be wantin Business Class tae Sunny Climes in a Big Basturt Plane Big Innes

Latest ecm op is pretty well a direct hit on Miami 929 mb and around a foot of rainfall

Barcelona putting up a right show now http://camteria.com/ru/spain/barselona/plyazh-sant-sebastia_cam_9381

On the live report from Barbuda people said containers were flying over their heads and some people had to tie themselves to the roof to not blow away...

Eye heading NW just north of Puerto Rico

Still strengthening as it heads toward Puerto Rico. 914/915mb, just wow, what a monster

'tis times like today that the Netweather forum allows the true colours of reality to share the best links worldwide ooohtube et al' sensationalizes with miss-information from nutters... This is serious for everyone in irma's path. As a weather fanatic I wouldn't want to be there - hope everyone gets the help they need after this

Never mind double trouble.. with Katia we have now a triple threat.

Nothing has kicked of yet (10.00pm) and Kirkcaldy is clouded out. Probably the best bet is to be ready for a quick run to either Crail or St. Andrews. Aurora are forecast for tonight and tomorrow with the big one sometime over the weekend. Trick is to find a rain/cloud shadow with clear skies. May have to travel to Peterhead/Gardenstown direction if it stays SW, otherwise just sit tight and hope!

Yes you were seeing lightning, it was also visiblle on the St Barts cam which failed but can still be viewed here. the beginning is fairly calm but if you get the slider near the end, its almost gone. PS the palm tree is called Hector, theres been no word on its status but it had a cult following during the passing of Irma due to its resolve in surviing what ever was thrown at it.

Am I seeing lightning flashes? No point listening for thunder if so......

Well let's hope the season turns out better for the UK than last Winter.