Leaderboard

That's awfull news Legritter thoughts to you and your family,keep strong and keep posting,I am sure I speak for all,when saying the whole of net weather community are with you. C.S.

That is awful news L, My thoughts and I am sure everyone on here is with you and your wife. Have you asked for support to you both from Macmillan Nurses, they help with all the problems you will be facing?

Looks bad ,cat 5

Yes just did an 8 minute Interview with Sky - Hope it went well! Most of the info is in this thread though so no need for Sky!

I am struck obviously by the extraordinary form of Irma first but then also the extensive convective activity elsewhere in the basin with 13L now in the GOM and Jose consolidating more in the MDR. Ahead of Irma lies plenty of moist and unstable conditions plus higher oceanic heat content than is currently on tap. So... what's to limit this hurricane apart from eye wall replacement cycles and land interaction? Speaking of the former, the latest effort seems to have become stuck in a concentric eyewalls situation; As for the latter, maybe some interaction of the CDO with PR & later Dominica but the model tracks generally keep the eye itself from taking much of a hit, if any. So it comes down to Cuba's mountainous southern side (particularly SE corner) but here I wonder if there could be some degree of 'density forcing' whereby air piling up against the mountains on the leading side of the cyclone achieves a high enough density to force more of a northward component to the cyclone's movement than would otherwise occur. It's debatable whether this is actually physically possible, particularly with such a large cyclone, but over the past decade I've seen a few cases here and there that at least suggest the possibility exists. At this time a consensus between ECM and GFS (wide margins though!) would avoid all that much interaction with Cuba's mountains anyway, in which case Floridians will be in desperate need of the storm turning north as far east as possible. As wacky as GFS seems with the movement of the storm, at least it allows for some hope that the best-case scenario of a turn before Florida is not without chance. Unfortunately this still sees the Bahamas taking a serious beating unless something highly unforeseen knocks the cyclone's core strength down a fair way. For all we know though, a stronger than expected development from TD 13 could change the game yet again by eroding a weakness in the ridge west of Florida and opening the door to the GOM for Irma. I am disappointed to have reason enough to write that last sentence but there it is . Oh and the official dropsonde reading is 920 mb which is still 6 mb lower than found during the last flight just a few hours ago - so a steady rate of deepening continues. To be honest given all that's before me at the moment, I'd be more surprised if Irma didn't reach that most horrific benchmark of 200 mph sustained winds, to this date in history not managed by any Atlantic-basin hurricane. Therefore I sincerely hope to be as surprised as possible when I catch up on things tomorrow morning!

No significant changes with last evening’s anomalies so the medium range outlook remains as previously stated. Perhaps the UK trough and mid Atlantic high pressure nudging a tad east as expected. So on to more pressing matters and the upcoming weather which is concentrating minds. Quite an active front crossing the country today with some quite heavy bursts of rain in it’s proximity and weather in your area is dependent on whether you are east or west of it. Wednesday a much better day although still a fairly healthy westerly with some showers in the north before the deterioration sets in on Thursday. By midday the new low is between Iceland and Scotland with the associated fronts already impacting N. Ireland and western Scotland. These track quickly ESE and by midday Friday the low is over the Hebrides 987mb with the UK in a showery north westerly, perhaps also some longer periods of rain. A classic scenario with the high pressure pushing north in mid Atlantic The centre of the low drifts away to the North east over Saturday leaving the UK in a cool, showery, northerly with perhaps the odd perturbation developing in the circulation but this is just the prelude to the next visitation from the WNW. By 12z Sunday the next low 975mb is south of Iceland with the fronts impacting the north west This quickly develops as it merges with the old low and by 06Z Monday we have an intense feature 977mb over western Scotland which swings east into the North Sea and fills during the day. Depending precisely how this develops it could bring strong winds and heavy rain in some places for a time but I suspect this is still a long way from being done and dusted

Force 13 live stream is up if anyone is interested,

Ice extent is currently above the 2010's average which is remarkable considering where we were 6 months ago. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Please please please can we have just one season where we don't have threads spiraling into this bloody coldies vs mildies crap!? It's childish and ruins the threads for those of us who are here purely for the weather.

It's not sounding any more hopeful! Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 27m27 minutes a MoreEye continues to warm now +20°C ... if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.

Sorry for the spoiler, but Irma wins.

Well they toyed with the idea of F6 after Moore stating damage as "Inconceivable" but it never made it past the chatter! So never say never

One thing's for sure: Irma will play havoc with Donald Trump's golf swing!

anybody STILL think september is a summer month?... lol... seriously, even if it was sunny and warm, the leaves are clearly turning, they have lost there summer verdant glow, the growth has stopped, everythings shabby, dying, shutting down. imho its high time the 'official' seasonal dates were changed to the metereological ones which reflesct natures idea of the seasons far more accurately.

Irma is really getting getting it's actually together over the last few hours.

Wow the Gfs 12z out to around T+240 hours attracts vigorous atlantic depressions to the uk like bees to a honeypot, very unsettled with lows occasionally merging bringing plenty of wet and windy weather with generally rather cool temperatures..further into low res there is a slight improvement with winds easing but overall it's an unsettled autumnal run with some hazardous weather likely across the uk at times from later this week and throughout next week according to this run..certainly not boring!

Hello, I'm not sure which category this topic fits into, so I'm just posting here. nearly 2 weeks ago, I & my family traveled to Greenville, South Carolina, USA (from Florida) to see the total solar eclipse of August 21st, 2017. The event was spectacular and awe-inspiring. Photos and videos do not give away the incredible feeling of seeing it in real life. Images: A few minutes after the partial eclipse begun. Image taken through solar eclipse glasses. About midway through... Just a few minutes left by this point.. The diamond-ring effect seconds before totality. video:

First snowman of the season 4th September 2017 ( Alpbach ) It lasted 24hours ! C

The ecm this evening has the low NW of Scotland 994mb at 12z Thursday with the fronts impacting the north west, Over the ext 24 hours these track quickly east bringing a fair bit of rain to the northern half of the UK in the process before the wind veers NW and showers are the order of the day. The wind continues to veer northerly as the low fills in the North Sea Some very brief ridging before the second more intense low zooms in from the west and it is 976mb just west of the Hebrides at 12z on Sunday with the fronts and rain already into the west. By midnight the low is in the North Sea east of Yorkshire Ergo a very wet day on Sunday with strong winds with gales, possibly severe in exposed places

Time to get all the camera batteries charged, the tripod packed and the remote bulb checked over. Kp7 forecast on Solarham for the 6th. and 7th. All that's needed are some clear skies. Moonlight may be a problem but it looks like the best chance for aurora for a while.

Thats snow joke

Just a little perspective on intensification from the last/latest recon mission...

Day 2 of dull, dreary weather with outbreaks of light drizzle this morning. I’m looking forward to some sunshine arriving with the fresher weather tomorrow. As the Met Office stats are now available I thought I’d take a quick look back at summer 2017 for our Region. I think overall a mixed bag of weather, but with June the outstanding month with temperatures above the long-term average (and giving us our hottest day of the summer) and July the wettest month. August seemed to end up as rather average overall with regard both temperatures and rainfall. (Although I did notice that the extreme eastern coastal fringe of the Region managed to squeeze out above average temps for all 3 months of summer). For those of us who like them, there were some notable storms spread throughout the summer months - unfortunately these did result in some damage. The charts: June, July, August rainfall anomaly against the 1981-2010 long-term average: June, July, August mean max temperature anomaly against the 1981-2010 long-term average: And a few of the Regional extremes: June: 2nd – widespread thundery downpours during the afternoon and evening caused localised flooding. 21st - a maximum temperature of 34.5 °C was recorded at Heathrow. 22nd - roofs damaged by lightning in Kent, North London and Leicestershire and power cuts reported across Kent. 27th - lightning strikes and some flooding caused rail disruption between East Anglia, Essex and London. July: 6th - a maximum temperature of 32.2 °C was recorded at Heathrow (Greater London). Localised flooding and lightning strikes occurred across East Anglia. 18th - thundery showers pushed north causing some flooding. 28th - a wind gust of 62 knots (71 mph) was recorded at Needles (Isle of Wight). August: 29th - a maximum temperature of 29.3 °C was recorded at Frittenden (Kent). 18th - a wind gust of 57 knots (66 mph) was recorded at Needles (Isle of Wight). Source: The Met Office. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017

Squally rain approaching Birmingham

That's 185mph equalling the strongest hurricane since 1980.

Seems some are getting touchy because I happen to hate snow ,I find it an annoying nuisance , whats wrong with not wanting a particular type of weather ! I dont mind cold crisp clear weather with blue skies , and I like rain and gales in the winter, but not in summer , but snow,no thanks , you can keep it Cant see the difference between that, and people on here wanting grey cool rainy weather all through summer , and constantly gloating when it does so Seems it was all too much to hear for some , pathetic oh well

Only if they approve a new category.

Snippet from the NOAA NHC discussion regarding Irma now at 180mph. "This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records."

ohh hello......

can i echo the comments above by JH / CS ECM clusters this morning - still with some even more disturbed options than shown by the op

Can't see that passing a pitch inspection...

I'm sure cold/snow/ice isn't pleasant for a lot of people in many professions to work in either. And cold is just as uncomfortable to sleep in if your house is poorly insulated or you can't afford the heating bill. Two sides to every argument...

We've entered the month of most loss of daylight; my most permanent location, Birmingham, loses 1 hour and 57 minutes of daylight in September. Meanwhile, the Isles of Scilly lose 1 hour and 46 minutes of daylight over the course of the month, and Lerwick loses a whopping 2 hours and 38 minutes!

you expect us to accept your constant moanings about summer warmth, but cant seem to comprehend that some of us dont like cold weather. you cite hayfever, i cite intollerance to cold .

Winteriest week of the year in Tasmania. Maybe snow close to sealevel in the Hobart area on Friday!

GFS 18z is keeping the core of Irma just offshore of Cuba; ECM is closer to the island but the eye still just misses landfall. I'm not sure how close the storm would have to get for its circulation to become significantly disrupted but I can see only minimal weakening at this point. Of course Florida's gain would be Cuba's loss and it doesn't look like there's any scenario on the table which would avoid at least one intense landfall (if Irma manages to stay east of Florida it's very likely it will hit at least one of the Bahamas on the way, probably Andros). Regarding intensity, while the GFS is clearly smoking something the ECM if anything looks undercooked to me. It's showing 960+mb until it passes Puerto Rico and still only 950mb on approach to Cuba - yet it's already down to 944mb. Do the models factor in EWRCs? I'm not sure what else could account for the rise in pressure, as conditions in the days ahead only look favourable for strengthening.

Nice view tonight.

Interesting to see 1996 and 2008 sharing such teleconnections - assume you mean 08/09, not 07/08... Both brought quite a varied autumn with a bit of everything, though no real warmth, and in November some cold wintry conditions at times, thanks to northerly incursions, indeed mid atlantic high ridging north was the theme. December 2008 and 1996 also brought a cold anticyclonic period, though of different strength and timing, in 2008 it was earlier on in the month, whereas in 1996 it was generally cold throughout notably so later on. Jan 09 brought episodic cold, followed by a cold first half to Feb with lots of snow, then very mild, Jan 97 started very cold, but then turned milder, Feb though was devoid of any cold. I'd take an autumn like 2008, 1996, and a winter first half like 1996 followed by second half like 2009.

This accords with my views - based on my reading re: solar/lunar/Earth dynamics and cycles. Sorry for an enigmatic post, but I've come hotfoot here after looking for a winter thread (prob a bit too soon) - via a search for White Christmas odds! A southerly jet with regular incursions from a very cold Arctic/Northern Europe is my punt for what is on the cards. Mods: feel free to move this somewhere more appropriate.

You do know, of course that this year will be the first one ever where Scotland gets nae snaw at aw and the Peak District gets 6 ft of it ...

A really nice late summer day today. Took advantage with a walk along the Southern Upland way to Minch Moor summit near Traquair. Touching 17 C at times in the sun. A light breeze to keep you cool though during the climb, so perfect. Heather reaching the end of its bloom, but still fragrant. Had tae keep dragging the wee yin away from the blaeberries so we could make it up and down on time. Lovely; borders at their best.

The best i got from last night

First time I've seen a funnel cloud, view from Scopwick looking towards Raf Digby 1st Sep 19.04 Wish I had got out and got a better shot with my phone but there it is.

The Euro only grants accurate pressure data to it's high res customers so you kind of have to knock a bit off.

Last major hurricane to hit Miami I think. Wilma was Cat. 3 at landfall in SW Florida but weaker as it passed eastwards over the city. Andrew was a 5 but the strongest winds were south of downtown Miami (poor Homestead got flattened).

It's unlikely they'll have much effect if the inner core avoids them. All they'll do is make the system look a bit ugly if it simply catches the banding.

Stepped Outside into the covered part of the garden, lots of Crawlers but the main Cg's ran across the anvil and landed to my SE out of shot! Some nice shotgun thunder though so a few must have landed behind me - Lol storms dont always play the game! Best I could manage, even had to put a jumper on