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Stepped Outside into the covered part of the garden, lots of Crawlers but the main Cg's ran across the anvil and landed to my SE out of shot! Some nice shotgun thunder though so a few must have landed behind me - Lol storms dont always play the game! Best I could manage, even had to put a jumper on

First time I've seen a funnel cloud, view from Scopwick looking towards Raf Digby 1st Sep 19.04 Wish I had got out and got a better shot with my phone but there it is.

My best ever- so happy!!!

The best i got from last night

GFS still going for summer to return at the start of week 2

Yes a cracking harvest day dry, low humidity, with almost clear blue skies and a breeze this evening allowing the combine to keep going, no dew so far. There is even dust Yippee!!!

Best electrical storm of the year for NW kent these taken over bluewater credit: Michal Thomas

No real change to yesterday's outlook with the expected onset of Atlantic weather for the coming week. A look at the UKMO day 4 chart sums shows the establishment of the westerly flow with the Greenland/ Icelandic trough becoming more dominant with time and any Azores ridging heading east into the continent. . Last night's Ht anomalies for days 6-10 reflecting this expected setup. so a fairly early spell of Autumnal weather to come it seems with the north seeing the worst of any wind and rain as low pressure is expected to head across to the north later in the week.

I really won't mind the unsettled spell later next week as the Gfs 12z shows if it's followed by what happens in low res which is a complete transformation into a spell of very summery weather..a price definitely worth paying!

Went out and chased this one in south Essex. Saw impressive distant lightning around 22z whilst walking the dogs and then checked radar. Impressive cgs seen around East Hanningfield, South Woodham Ferrers around 2330z. Drove directly under one cell in Torrential rain in Bicknacre, roads instantly flooded, then north to Maldon where dry. Continued to skirt round north of cell in dry area near Burnham before heading back to Southend where more impressive cgs observed. Most unexpected!

What a night!

You can see it's not just the Gfs 12z operational which goes all summery as we head towards and during the mid month period. The GEFS 12z mean also indicates there is plenty of support for a gradual change from unsettled to settled with increasing height's to the east extending west across the uk with help from the azores bringing a lovely spell of anticyclonic weather for all areas..fingers crossed.

Week 2 shows what could happen when we see more wavering of the jet flow. Compare the differences in the way the 2 main models handle this for the Uk,of course this is around 10 days away so just for illustration really As you show SS a brief taste f Summer as warm air from S.Europe wafts northwards ahead of a slow moving cut-off low out west.However look at the way ECM models this with a much more Autumnal cooler cyclonic period. Either scenario is possible of course if this splitting of the jet occurs.

Haha!! Buddy I've waited years and years and I didn't even know this was on the way- I grabbed my iPhone and just filmed and for once im in the hot spot!! Made my decade it has!

Here is a new thread as we start the Autumn quarter. Today's model runs continue to indicate a pretty mobile Atlantic pattern through the coming week by the looks of things. A glance at the latest fax for Monday shows plenty of frontal activity heading in from the west ending our short little fine spell for today and tomorrow. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif?3 and below we have ECM mean chart for the end of next week, continuing to show the westerly theme http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017090100/EDM1-168.GIF?01-12 Low pressure moving across to the north and the Azores high only able to ridge briefly between the rain bands the new month looks to start on a rather unsettled note with, as often the case in this setup,the best of any brighter spells further south and east. This seems to have been the story of much of our Summer and this pattern seems set to continue for now.

Are Bank Holidays associated with bad weather? Introduction Following the recent hot and sunny bank holiday (“BH”), I wanted to test the widely held belief that BHs are associated with poor weather. Method and Limitations of Work I used my own weather data to test the hypothesis. This has the following limitations: 1. 1. It dates back only 10 years. 2. It is for my location only. h 3. The data may not be as accurate as Meto stations, especially prior to mid-2013 when I upgraded my weather station. This is particularly so for sunshine hours, as these are based on daily estimates. Nevertheless, it should act as at least a guide for the hypothesis for my region of the country (south-east/ East Anglia). I could have used Met Office local data, but it seems better to compare like with like, i.e. my data with my data. I calculated the average for the relevant weeks of each BH, and then calculated the average for each BH for the same years. I only looked at the two May holidays and August, because the winter holidays don’t seem to receive the same attention (as nobody is expecting warm, settled weather in any case) and Easter is difficult due to its variable date. Note that I only looked at the day itself. I did not look at BH weekends as a whole. A further note is that these stats relate to the whole 24 hours, ending late evening. This means that stats could mislead one if, say, one BH had heavy rain the previous night, clearing to a sunny day (although my notes do not suggest that this has often been the case, if at all). Overall, therefore, this is not a very scientific study, but it is a reasonable guide to the issue. Results and Comment Early May Bank Holiday I have not set out all of the data, only the averages: Max (C) Min (C) Rain (mm) per day Sun hrs May generally 18.92 7.95 1.48 5.88 Average 1-7 May 17.3 6.48 1.4 5.65 May BH 17.22 6.99 1.07 6.1 Late May Bank Holiday Max (C) Min (C) Rain (mm) per day Sun hrs May generally 18.92 7.95 1.48 5.88 Average 25-31 May 18.93 9.65 2.43 5.73 May BH 18.93 10.11 2.79 5.11 August Bank Holiday Max (C) Min (C) Rain (mm) per day Sun hrs Aug generally 22.7 12.97 1.9 5.27 Average 25-31 Aug 20.95 12.46 3.73 5.3 Aug BH 20.57 12.46 3.9 6 Conclusion Summary I am no statistician but it seems to me that deviation from average is not significant in any instance. Indeed, in some instances, the exact correlation with average is almost spooky. The following are the slight differences observed: Early May BH Slightly drier and sunnier than average, with slightly higher minima. Rain-wise this BH appears to be less variable than the others and notably drier. Perhaps not surprisingly, the range of temperatures is however variable with maxima varying by 12C and minima a huge 17C (2-15C). There were no sunless days and it was significantly sunnier than the late May holiday despite the days being shorter. Late May BH This also has higher minima (at 0.7C, this is arguably significant) but is also cloudier and wetter than average. As that rainfall is some 24% more than average, one might think that was significant. However, it should be noted that the mean rainfall is hugely skewed by 2017 which received 16 mm of rain. If we eliminate that year, the mean would be only 1.01 per day and thus very significantly drier than average. Therefore, it seems unlikely that this is significant. 2017, along with just one other year, was also sunless, and it is this that makes the BH slightly cloudier than average. Balancing this, 2012 and 2013 were both very sunny (and the former was the warmest). Temperatures are the least variable for this BH, with a maxima range of 10.7C. August BH This has slightly cooler maxima and very slightly wetter but nevertheless sunnier than average (and this latter difference is more significant). Rainfall wise, this was the most variable BH. 2014 and 2015 were two ‘stinkers’ in a row, with zero sun and substantial rainfall of 18 and 16 mm respectively. Apart from those two, there was barely any rain at all. These were the only sunless BHs, but generally, sunshine totals are not impressive. Maxima was also very variable, with 2013 being almost as warm as 2017 but the two ‘stinkers’ mentioned above logging a pathetic 15.7C and 14.1C respectively, the latter being the joint lowest August maximum I have ever recorded. This means that August BH maxima have a range of 13.1C, the highest of the three. Brief Executive Summary There is most likely no notable variation between average weather likely at the times of year and weather experienced over bank holidays. This is not surprising given that the weather does not know or care when England &Wales has its bank holidays. The limited variations that exist are unsurprising and probably not statistically significant. Hence, they vary both ways: some suggest better BH weather, some worse. Whilst not particularly unscientific, I think that when people next complain of BH weather, I shall say that on average it is no different from average for the time of year. Follow Up Work This begs a further question as to whether we have Bank holidays at the right time of year. The average annual rainfall at my location based on my data is a fairly modest 601 mm which equates to almost 1.65 mm per day. The early May BH is below this average but the other two days, and indeed in August, both the week and the BH itself, the figure is almost double that! I propose to take a look at this issue in a follow up and it is for this reason that I have inserted the averages for the entire months in which the BH falls. Meanwhile, it appears to me that more work could be done to investigate this hypothesis using CET and Met Office data over a longer period than the 10 years I have used. I hope that this work provokes some discussion. WB

A change to warmth (if it arrives) looks like it will be proceeded by a spell of autumnal weather ECM 00z 12z

A really nice late summer day today. Took advantage with a walk along the Southern Upland way to Minch Moor summit near Traquair. Touching 17 C at times in the sun. A light breeze to keep you cool though during the climb, so perfect. Heather reaching the end of its bloom, but still fragrant. Had tae keep dragging the wee yin away from the blaeberries so we could make it up and down on time. Lovely; borders at their best.

Months at least 0.5C below their 1961-90 averages Nov 2016: 5.6 Sep 2015: 12.6 Aug 2014: 14.9 Jun 2013: 13.6 May 2013: 10.4 Mar 2013: 2.7 Feb 2013: 3.2 Oct 2012: 9.7 Sep 2012: 13.0 Jul 2012: 15.5 Jun 2012: 13.5 Apr 2012: 7.2 July 2011: 15.2 Dec 2010: -0.7 Nov 2010: 5.2 Aug 2010: 15.3 May 2010: 10.7 Feb 2010: 2.8 Jan 2010: 1.4 Compared to previous period 2000-09 Dec 2009: 3.1 Jan 2009: 3.0 Dec 2008: 3.5 Oct 2008: 9.7 July 2007: 15.2 Mar 2006: 4.9 Oct 2003: 9.2 Oct 2002: 10.1 Dec 2001: 3.6 Mar 2001: 5.2 Jan 2001: 3.2 Jul 2000: 15.5

Its been a great summer generally, especially hot in the Southern Alps . Parts of Alpine Italy receiving some fierce heat for a time in early August. Eastern Alpine regions not the prolonged heat as previous two summers but still the curve shows increasing summer heat. Really, not usual to see short spells of cold wet weather that produce snowfall above 2000m at anytime of the year in these parts. By the look of it seems the glaciers have taken a hit again this summer. Worse thing for them is to be followed up by a warm dry Autumn . This has been the case for a number of years now. However, only last January we had record cold month in Austria ! C

GFS has probably one final blast of heat as we move through week 2 of the month

Webcams showing heavy snow settling above 2200 m in the Western Tirol. This one above Ischgl ski resort. C

Just spent an hour down at the seafront here watching the lightning out in The Channel. It doesn't seem to want to make the crossing though. Sounds like folk inland are having a good show, some superb photo's here tonight, well done and thanks for sharing them.

Not the best shots I know but:

Romford, we have been having this storm for about 2-3 hours now, think they are sneaking eastwards very slowly... more pics later.

No rain here today, but some really lovely cloud-scapes and a max temp of 22.8C to enjoy. 16.15 18.30

Absolutely no difference with leaves changing around here other than the horse chestnuts. Lovely day today. That's why I prefer early Autumn and late spring over the middle of summer, can be lengthy sunny spells without being unpleasantly warm! Loving the fresh nights too.

Havent posted for a while, but its time I guess, that I share a thought or two. I will start off with my own version of the QBO timeseries, which I did not name the QBO, because it looks at the whole layer between 1-100mb, while QBO is mainly looked at 10-50mb or 30-50mb, depending on the use or the dataset. I wanted this to be a high-resolution version of the FU Berlin graphic, that can be found here: FU Berlin QBO and which we are all well familiar with. The difference is, I wanted to make an HD one, in colour, and using a high resolution ECMWF reanalysis dataset, and using daily (yes daily) data, instead of monthly data like FU Berlin, because it gives a better (smoother) appearance. This is just version one of the graphic. i will update it as needed. We see at the end of the series, that the negative values (easterlies) are moving down. Looking at a recent analysis, we do see a large area of easterlies in the mid stratosphere, going down to -40m/s in the core. The last time we had such strong easterlies in these parts of the stratosphere in late summer, was far back in 1986. It just so happens to be the same year that we were also in a "solar minima" going for a negative QBO for the winter. And the winter of 86/87 was one to remember across Europe. I am not saying that it will repeat the same winter, but am jsut looking for the closest example to current situation as far as topical stratosphere winds go. The forecast of course begins the onset of the new polar vortex, which co-exists with the easterlies above the tropics. Comparing the above graphics with 1986, we do see just how similar the setup above us is. The setup down lower tho, is up for discussion. After a few years, this is probably the most exciting entrance to a new polar jet season for me personally, since there is finally something worth experimenting with. best regards.

My favourite part of these threads are Lettucing Gutted's reactions. 15.0C

Morning, what a change in one week. Temp 5c with rain and cloud and feeling cold. Maybe some snow on the tops today. C

Was nice storm that wasn't expecting it at all. Nice pics folks i have a few shall shall post them tomorrow.

Got this one exactly as the flash happened. Moving off towards the East now.

Another one. No fork seen though. Looking East this time, it scored a direct hit on me.

sorry I can't help it, making the very most of a bonus!

Oh!,stop it some cracking photo's coming in and keep it up,any clips

Lol,freezing,guess you are use to the plains weather ha!ha! direct hit!,just now.

I was thinking same but sadly I've had a typical Friday night and don't fancy doing a Rooney !

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ______ min (records 1772-2016) 01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816) 02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816) 03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908) 04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841) 05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841) 06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841) 07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952) 08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931) 09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912) 10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860) 11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860) 12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848) 13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) ___ record was 19.4 (2006) 14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) ___ record was 19.3 (1934) 15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 ___ 18.8 (1947,2016) _ 7.9 (1986) 16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807) 17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807) 18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807) 19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952) 20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919) 21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872) 22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872) 23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773) 24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872) 25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812) 26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) 27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885) 28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824) 29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918) 30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808)

Dvorak is now the strongest it has been for Irma. It currently indicates that Irma is closing in on a cat 4. Visually irma looks the best it has as well and has grown quite a hit for ages. Ecm is rolling out and has a quicker deeper trough which means a bigger ridge and Irma likely to hit the us is a major way.

Watching from the beach in Hunstanton just after sunset for about two hours was a lovely surprise, flashes and bolts even a few clear ground strikes at some points every other second for about 10 minutes around 8:30pm

what a dreadful start to a working day, cold, damp, manky autumnal smell, nothing to look foreward to but cold dark days. roll on spring... *mischievous snigger*

We took a trip to Wyming brook just south of revelin dam in the peak district on bank holiday Monday and it was a glorious day there are some hidden gems in our country and here is a few pics,the waterfalls go on for some quarter of a mile all the way down to revelin dam and the dog enjoyed it of course.

Hope this isn't too off-topic for the fungal spores and allergens thread, but I think many would take the DJF height anomalies from last night's CFS 18z: It's a trend, I tell ya. Edit: The last one *is* February, but for some reason it's labelled Mars 2018. Sylvain?