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Showing most liked content on 01/07/17 in all areas

  1. 8 points
  2. 7 points
    Briefly as I'm on mobile (in fact, on holiday... so I'm being a bit sneaky!) - GFS has today trended toward a more effective cutting-off of the Iberian/French low mid-late next week, resulting in more of a ridge to the N/NE with an E flow for E&W with some very warm or even quite hot afternoons Fri-Sat (depending on where you happen to set the thresholds). UKMO is not as enthusiastic, with more eastward motion to the low retained through Friday, shifting the peak warmth away with it although a weak trough undergoing disruption and southward elongation out west of the UK could serve to hold-up the movement of that very warm air, possibly with a breakdown of sorts occurring on Saturday so just a little sooner than GFS (by 12 hours, say). ECM was most progressive this morning with the European low not hanging about at all. Will it at least share GFS' trend, or continue to whisk the low away and bring a return to somewhat changeable westerly flow? I believe we're still seeing a bit too much 'La Nina-ness' being forced on the patterns by the models from as soon as next weekend so I'd not be surprised to see the very warm conditions extended further than the current consensus. Ha - turns out I managed to snatch a bit more time than I expected so there was some reasonable detail in this post after all
  3. 6 points
    We need to pay attention to the back end of next week - there could be a pulse of heat creeping up on us from nowhere. It's all very knife-edge, and could go either way. But the 6z brings some very warm/hot air into the south by Thursday and Friday, with temps very close to 30c once more: One to keep tabs on. Nothing long lasting as the Atlantic sweeps the hot air away, but a bonus at this stage I'd say.
  4. 4 points
    Morning campers and now we have got the last three days out of the way onwards and upwards to the delight's of this morning's ecm. Skipping this weekend as most should be familiar with this by now 12z Monday sees the UK in a showery NW airstream (briefly) with low pressure to the north east and the Azores HP ridging in from the south west. But a small depression that originates over on the NE seaboard today has tracked quickly east around the ridge and this and associated fronts impact the UK on Tuesday bringing rain mainly to the northern half of the country. Also some marked temp contrasts with 13-14C in the north and 21C in the deep south. This quickly clears east but by 12z Thursday we have a two pronged attack with the Atlantic trough edging in from the north west and the Iberian low tracking up from the south so frontal rain in the north west and unstable convective outbreaks in the south. Reflected in the temp rang of 14C in the NW and 25C in the south east. So after a very mixed bag Thursday this gives way to some more transient ridging before the next low arrives on the scene and by 12z Saturday is north of Scotland with associated fronts bringing rain to most but particularly in the north.
  5. 3 points
    I wasn't being a drama queen and it certainly was warranted. I do not have a problem with criticism providing it correctly addresses what I was saying. In this case it did not as I have pointed out.
  6. 3 points
    Well you presume wrong, just making a point that the ECM 12Z is one run, and while it may be right in the long run it's a good deal cooler than the the GFS 12Z, so not sure your nit-picking of Frosty's post was really warranted.
  7. 3 points
    Few days of warmth there better than nothing
  8. 3 points
    The Ecm 12z certainly shows a warm up for the south by midweek and especially on thursday when temps are into the mid 20's celsius across most of England and Wales, potentially upper 20's c for the s / se and increasing humidity too so a growing chance of heavy showers / thunderstorms for a time.
  9. 3 points
    The south could see 30c again later in the week as we import some heat from France
  10. 3 points
    Morning all - Certainly the potential for things to be much warmer through the coming week: While it certainly won't be blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, there will be some brighter interludes. As ever in these sort of set ups, the best of the conditions will be across the SE nearer to the high pressure.
  11. 2 points
    Temperatures on the up during the week ahead according to the Gfs 18z with low to mid 20's celsius and upper 20's c for the south-east for a time later next week..overall, a return of proper summer next week, especially further south..much better than the unseasonably cool and very wet spell recently! Considering how the Gfs tends to undercook the maxima it looks like mid 20's c looks realistic and a little higher for the SE.
  12. 2 points
    stop being such a drama queen and stick to the model discussion please, it's what you're good at (not the sarcasm bit, it was not warranted in the slightest!)............ re. the models, certainly encouraged by the last 24 hour batch of outputs, the consensus seems to be towards a nice warm up for the southern half of the UK after midweek with some quite impressive temps (23-28C) on the cards, and hopefully this time, a thundery breakdown...after the warm up, we're back in FI territory so outputs post T168 to be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt
  13. 2 points
    The GFS begs to differ. 24c on Thursday and 25c on friday for my neck of the woods. Take into account the typical undercook and that could be 27/28c repectively. Not forgetting the lovely 17/18c nights to go with it. Its official: this country cannot have pleasant weather without heat. I truly wish the Azores would sod off.
  14. 2 points
    J10 will confirm the results but according to my table of forecasts, Relativistic wins top points for June at 16.0. Consensus at 15.5 finished around 15th place and the two norms (14.5) for recent 30-year periods were well back. At 14.6, the May-June average CET was the warmest since 14.65 in 1992. It was tied 10th warmest overall, behind this pack: 1846 (15.25), 1726,1762,1798 and 1822 (14.9), 1833 (14.85), 1804 and 1970 (14.7), 1992 (14.65) and tied with 1776, 1788 Notice that most of these happened before 1850. At 11.7, it was the warmest March to June average CET. Second warmest there was 11.55 in 1893. And as noted earlier, it was tied second warmest January to June, with 1846, and behind 2007.
  15. 2 points
    Not a great deal happening this week though we could see some storms in the south as the heat builds up from France at the end of the week
  16. 2 points
    I seeing the potential for some thunder at the end of the week (thursday and friday) looking at GFS
  17. 2 points
  18. 2 points
    That puts many of our little whines about the weather into perspective,hope your improving and the weather plays ball!! Many on here sit behind their keyboards and criticise a view with out understanding or knowing the reason for that view. Bit more tolerance may be needed? I include myself in that statement as well. Like the positive attitude,need more like it!
  19. 2 points
    Wow....check this one out,this is amazing
  20. 2 points
    just captured it^ i am still recording this cam so there will be some good stills from it
  21. 2 points
  22. 2 points
    Some nice convective cloudscapes on show today. Some minor surface flooding in a couple areas around here. Saw a number of funnel like features which dissipated into nothing, but I have found a funnel cloud report from Kent, towards Dover this afteroon: And another funnel report: http://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/dramatic-sight-of-funnel-cloud-128114/
  23. 1 point
    A Special very hot night, on the summer soloist 21/6/17 2am swim in bioluminescent plankton at Three Cliffs Bay, Gower, never seen anything like it....
  24. 1 point
    Hi Frosty, me and the family are heading down to Cornwall on Monday for a week. Do you think it will be sunny and warm down there? Sorry I am not the best at looking at the models. Anything will be better than the rubbish we have here in Scotland I guess
  25. 1 point
    The output is looking good, Frosty. No doubt the usual doommongerers will paint a bad picture though! Keep up the good work and positivity, we love to see it!
  26. 1 point
    Also going to view my first total solar eclipse and will be heading for the Nebraska Panhandle for the 21st. Good luck to all!
  27. 1 point
    I'm really not bothered whether you are sure or not but I was not nit-picking the post. Frosty often takes some fairly rough ecm 850mb temp charts and makes sweeping statements about the surface temps from them which is not particularly wise and very often is not what the ecm is actually saying, as in this case. I was just attempting to point this out. I also find your criticism that my posts do not often fairly represent the broad picture of the outputs and thus are rather biased rather odd in view of the fact, as far as I'm aware, you have not levelled this charge on any other posts and thus presumably find them all okay. And to reiterate I'm well aware the ecm is only one run but as I've already pointed out, in the context of my answer, this is irrelevant.
  28. 1 point
    Or mid 20s if GFS is right. In this case the line from the 'Humber to Bristol' doesn't apply as it shows some of the highest temperatures in NW England and North Wales. You mention this line a lot (I know it's sometimes the Wash rather than the Humber) but areas north and west of this line often do well too.
  29. 1 point
    Worth checking these three cams out on the west coast of Florida,some nice towers going up https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-states/florida/clearwater/florida-clearwater-beach.html https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-states/florida/clearwater/clearwater-beach.html https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-states/florida/indian-shores/indian-shores.html
  30. 1 point
    Very nice day here in spite of a strong wind.Rain of the last few days rapidly disappearing from surface of ground. Crops have done another growth spurt. Currently 18c.
  31. 1 point
    Oh dear, forgot. 18.2 please
  32. 1 point
    Me likey. It is very nice here IF you can stay out the breeze:
  33. 1 point
    Nice to see cricket coimng back to the Beeb meanwhile, England's squad for the first test against SA next week England squad: Joe Root (capt, Yorkshire), Alastair Cook (Essex), Keaton Jennings (Durham), Gary Ballance (Yorkshire), Jonny Bairstow (wkt) (Yorkshire), Ben Stokes (Durham), Moeen Ali (Worcestershire), Liam Dawson (Hampshire), Stuart Broad (Nottinghamshire), Mark Wood (Durham), James Anderson (Lancashire), Toby Roland-Jones (Middlesex) Pretty much as expected, although would've liked to have seen Adil Rashid in the squad, Liam Dawson's selection looks like a bit of a defensive pick....Ballance gets a recall and on form it is warranted, outstanding form for Yorks so far this season
  34. 1 point
    Most of my most memorable weather events I most certainly would not want to relive. One would be struggling to fill a weather balloon in a F 11 at the after end of a ship with 40-60 foot sea running when the cold front suddenly passed through initiating a massive change in wind direction. A change of underwear became an immediate necessity.
  35. 1 point
  36. 1 point
    GFS showing bit of a plume starting Wed but looks to stay mostly on the continent currently.
  37. 1 point
    I wouldn't have to go back far for that.. 2 whole days.
  38. 1 point
    I have a build up of fluid in my lungs when I lie down which can suddenly wake me up gasping for air, made worse when temps are either too warm or cold. Docs say I can only manage my condition by keeping the bedroom at a certain temp & using oxygen when lay down, it's not curable. I have to be careful though because regular losses of oxygen while asleep can cause brain & nerve damage so it's important to use the oxygen. I lived with it for a couple of years but didn't bother doing anything about it, until it got progressively worse a couple of months ago .......woke up breathless and when I got up I collapsed couldn't feel my legs, really thought I were a gonner. The missus ordered the ambulance and they found out what was wrong in hospital. Fluid in my lungs & low oxygen. Anyway Cheers, I have to make the best of things.
  39. 1 point
    No year so far in CET records has seen a colder second half of the year than first half (I understand what you were saying about relative to normal), although some first half values have been higher than second half values of other years fairly close to them in time. Maybe this year we can break that 358-year drought. Here's why second half is always warmer in each calendar year, the second listed months have to be colder than the first listed months on average, the actual average difference (over the entire period of record) is shown in brackets. DEC - JAN (0.8) NOV - FEB (2.2) OCT - MAR (4.4) SEP - APR (5.4) AUG - MAY (4.4) JUL - JUN (1.7) As you can see that's not a fair fight but 1846 managed to come within 1.5 deg of tying both halves of the year (9.5, 10.8). The first half of 2007 is the warmest on record at 9.70. This month needed to finish 17.1 to tie that mark. Using 16.0 as a provisional it comes out to 9.52, same as 1846 and tied for second warmest. The last time a second half was cooler than 9.6 was 1892 (9.5) so the chances are slim to none probably. These are the five closest attempts to match first half with second half ... YEAR ___ 1st half __ 2nd half ___ difference 1676 ____ 8.58 _____ 9.08 ____ 0.50 1896 ____ 8.89 _____ 9.79 ____ 0.90 1683 ____ 8.00 _____ 8.92 ____ 0.92 1822 ____ 9.48 ____ 10.62 ____ 1.14 1796 ____ 8.43 _____ 9.60 ____ 1.17 In more recent years, 1993 managed 1.28 (8.85, 10.13) and that ranks sixth slightly ahead of 1878 and 1840. Those were the only years to come within 1.4 deg of matching . If we then look at the first half of the following year and how that compares with the second half of any given year, a slightly smaller difference is found (0.48 in 1845 (second half) to 1846 (first half) ) from 10.0 to 9.52. Waiting two years, that same first half was only 0.1 colder than 1844's second half (9.62). As to the differential from year A first half to year B second half, first half of 1828 (8.83) and second half of 1829 (9.15) provide the smallest difference, 0.32 deg. The closest separation of a colder second half two years after any first half in time was 0.09 (9.33 to 9.42) from first half 1686 to second half 1688. The closest separation in time that provides a warmer first half appears to be second half 1683 to first half 1686, the increase there was 0.41 (8.92 second half 1683 to 9.33 first half 1686). This was the only increase in that set.
  40. 1 point
    Summer of 76 for me, week after week of sun and heat or the winter of 78/79, week after week of snow and cold. I've clear memories of both and in both cases have seen nothing like it since.
  41. 1 point
  42. 1 point
    Again the signals for July are pointing to increased Azores high influence which could then lead to very warm continental incursions, at least for the southern half of the uk with the north (scotland & n.ireland) staying generally more changeable / oceanic but from mid July there continues to be potential for a very summery spell to develop, initially across the s / se and then extending north to most / all of the uk as time goes on..still plenty of summer to come! Still some changeable blips even further south but generally it's an improving picture compared to this week.
  43. 1 point
  44. 1 point
    So..... I should really just copy and paste my post re Tuesday's weather ....Different day... Same s#$t springs to mind.. Im feeling almost as gloomy as the weather!! Im sorry but pishin rain and gloomy dull coupled with 12c TWICE!! in a week in High Summer disnae float my boat........
  45. 1 point
    I hate 30c no beating around the bush. HATE IT. However i do expect it to be a bit warmer hence the fact I brought clothes and shoes that are for summery days. 24/25 at most please.
  46. 1 point
    The two sides to this June
  47. 1 point
    Blimey Ice Man you really do like a good old moan , now I like 22c 23c 24c 25c but if you want a good old BBQ etc it's nice to have a spurt of heat you can then comfortably go to the beach , swim in the sea jump in a cold pool of course not all possible if your working but the chances are you'll get some time off in a week long heatwave like we've just had to enjoy the advantages of a heatwave , each to there own of course but can't we all just sacrifice a few days of hot weather to those that like it , any way I hope you enjoy the deluge this week , as I say each to there own .
  48. 1 point
    This time tomorrow, I think many will be saying come back summer, if you think today was poor, tomorrow looks abysmal for many especially northern england, some places will struggle to hit 13 degrees under persistant heavy rain and strong east wind - will feel more like October! than late June. It always surprises me to think we can get colder days in the height of summer than in December when the tropical SW wind rages strong! - maxes of 15 degrees easily achieved..
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    Cairngorm Summit Forecast for Saturday 24th June Feel like Temperature of -6c and light Snow.Half tempted for a trip out on Saturday,Maybe the most snow I will see for the rest of 2017/2018 C.S