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Superb looking Ecm 12z by the weekend, becoming very warm or hot..BBQ anyone?

Arpege showing a little pocket of 27C for the north of London and the first 40C of the summer for down here. As I said in a status comment, forecasts for here will see June 2003 well beaten - l wonder if some of the suggestions of dangerous heat will come to fruition?

NAVGEM is scary at the end of the run, possibility of 38C in the SE. Slight improvement with the ECM joining the GEM's ideas later in the run, but Scotland never really joins in. Still all to play for but Jesus I hope the upgrades keep coming.

Don't be silly, it's not an issue for most people if it happens at the weekend! Some people actually enjoy the heat- a couple of days of it isn't going to cause problems.

Looking into next week, the Ecm 12z remains very summery with high temperatures..I would bank this run without a moment's hesitation! Turns into a sizzler for the south in particular.

Much the same chez us this weekend, spending Saturday in the west country for my mother's birthday. We drove from a clear blue sky Surbiton to overcast and rather breezy Somerset; heading to Cheddar it seemed to threaten rain, but stayed off to take my mother shopping in the Cheddar Gorge retail spots, and even felt rather warm when the sun came out briefly. Driving back to the London area, the skies brightened up ahead of us and when we got home there was that smell the evening has at the end of a hot day in summer; I think the satellite image you posted @Blessed Weather showed the contrast very well. On a slightly different topic, it would be nice for you to join us on the south east forum @carinthian. Even now I make sad sweeps of my winter webcam sites, all green and empty now; I fully understand your craving for Austria and @Blessed Weather for the Alps:/

The Swallow nest in the garage is beginning to look a bit overcrowded.

Why? The Ecm 12z is showing heat so I'm posting charts and discussing it.

Maybe you should be in the moaning thread?

ECM is very good again tonight, probably the pick of the crop. Turning very warm/hot as the weekend goes on.

Less moaning so far today, good to see Could reach 29c in the south-east midweek.

Interesting cloud ripples on the satellite image this morning as the stiff westerly wind runs over the land. Over the last few days I've been watching this Region enjoy some lovely weather whilst I've been back in Wales to celebrate my Dad's 91st birthday. It's been largely cloudy and very windy back there with some heavy rain Saturday evening. So I'm looking forward to being back in our lovely SE corner of the UK for the coming week as it looks - once again - like we'll be enjoying the best of the UK weather. Wed and Thur looking particularly nice with temps up to 27C. Wed Thur

Given the situation with forcing from the Indian Ocean being allowed too much impact on GLAAM, it's not surprising to see ECM shifting toward GEM (the new king of trend spotting?!) this morning with GFS also making a good move in that direction. Longer-term we see GEM and ECM building ridges across to the north of the heat plume which is one way to prolong the heat but always with the risk of a thundery low pushing up from the south. Typically enough we see GFS enthusiastically bringing a low through having not managed to get the plume across much of the UK in the first place. From past cases we know this is always a significant possibility, but I have seen a similar number of cases go the other way as well . GFS does actually make some attempt to restore a mid-Atlantic trough + Euro ridge combination early into lower-res, before the GLAAM bias forces westward retraction of the ridge. That this has been delayed is notable. The GEFS started to show a split between retracted and not retracted ridges yesterday evening and that has progressed further this morning. Interesting times ahead if you like 'proper summer weather', and it also seems to me that the NetWeather team should consider updating the GEM viewer to include output beyond +144 hours .

The ECM ens support some much warmer air arriving temps would be getting in the upper 20s for the south maybe even just into the low 30s

That's a cracking ECM. 3 or 4 days pushing the 30sC there.

Tonight's ecm is not just a southern heat affair though. You will be baking as well.

More like low 30's celsius for the south at times..epic Ecm run for heat lovers, especially in the south.

High Pressure Building itself again for the weekend especially Sunday for southern areas .

The models are pointing towards a typical summer north / south or north-west / south-east split for the next few weeks with the best weather generally further southeast and the lions share of the cooler and unsettled conditions across the northwest of the uk but occasionally making inroads further s / e..plenty of warmth and sunshine in the favoured areas.

The 06z has had a habit of showing the extreme retrogression scenarios over the last few days though. Not to be trusted at the moment I don't think. There is still uncertainty in the air unfortunately though. If that run came off conditions would be very disappointing for June.

10 days til the Solstice, then it's all downhill to Christmas

Only 139 days until the clocks go back! Can't wait for the long nights of Winter to return.

Very nice though East Sussex is Paul, I'd be heading back to Austria if I were you! As you know, it's a (fading) dream of mine to live in the Alps. Unfortunately Mrs Blessed has other ideas! But good luck with the house hunting in Sussex - I'm looking forward to you joining the banter in the SE & EA forum.

Radio 5 live this morning said 28c for the south-east midweek so I just added another degree

Much better OP runs today, but it is worth mentioning that an ensemble split has developed....with a fair few showing the warmer solution displayed today, and a number still pushing the cooler crud we got shown most of yesterday. Let's keep an eye out and hope this mornings OPs have it right. FWIW the GFS OP isn't the warmest run at all....20% of members bring in extreme heat (>15c 850s).

Not everyone has the weekends off. I do shifts. As for "problems" I'm speaking purely for my own tolerance for heat which ends at 23c. I'm not a complete mope; I'd take settled and sunny any day of the week over the rain and winds seen over the last few days. But as for what the ECM is showing, I have to say I'd look forward more to being executed than sweating in heat like that.

The Ecm 12z is certainly great eye candy and the timeframe is close enough to raise hopes it could actually happen..fingers crossed!

Give me something for as far North as Manchester/Leeds please then I may be able to share your excitement. Its all so SE Biased lately!

Temps likely mid high twenties if ecm came off. Lets hope its right

If the ecm is correct I expect big upgrades on the BBC forecast temps for this weekend.

How can the gfs and ecm be so vastly different in a relatively short time frame. Lets hope the ecm wins out

Am I the only one who thinks this year has been terrible so far? Not even heard barely a rumble yet and it's nearly the solstice. Kent has been the place to be so far.

Potential stands for sod all if it is not exploited. Yet to have had an overhead storm..

I agree. Over the years I have found the GFS 06z run to be the least reliable run. Let's hope the 12z runs go some way to cementing a decent weekend for most of the UK.

Some isolated potential for storms showing middle part of this week atm, though may change. Warm and humid air looks to be drawn north across England on Wednesday between low pressure to the west and high pressure close to the east. Some weak CAPE showing across central and northern England - weak upper forcing but orographic uplift of Pennines could trigger a few isolated heavy showers or storms. Then attention turns to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as theta-e plume / elevated mixed layer (characterised by steep lapse rates) advecting NE across SE England / E Anglia shows signs of destabilising - as upper trough moves in from the west and surface convergence creates increased large scale ascent of the warm/moist conveyor. This could trigger some elevated storms overnight and through Thursday morning before the cold front moves through from the west in the afternoon/early evening.

GFS holds out on the 6z albeit not too bad..

It's not moaning Frosty. It's people airing their views on what the models show. The models, in particular the ecm, have improved overnight hence the much more positive reactions from people this morning including myself . If the models revert back to a less favourable outlook, I for one will not be afraid to point that out.

Interesting, thanks for that info. Broadly close to what the French ARPEGE model shows but it has temps 1-2*C higher at peak in the SE region. I have noticed that the BBC often refers to temperatures on a par with that model. Unlike in late May, there will be very light winds for inland areas in this spell so temp errors should be more down to boundary layer modifications which is a known difficultly for models given parameterisation methods. I expect though that most of the error will be restricted to large urban areas and other hot spots brought about by terrain effects.

May 2018? Cool, grey and breezy here this morning. Not raining though. And no badgers - gosh, that would annoy the neighbours, they think my cats are bad with the digging with a wee scrape here or there (generally on my freshly weeded beds)

Yes what a fantastic run, quite a surprise in all honesty. The GFS also seems to be dropping its retrogression idea at long last. It's amazing how persistent the op runs have been at quite a short time frame, somewhat in defiance of the ensembles. Let's hope this trend continues and that there are no further complications.

Much, much better ecm op this morning. I hope it is on the right lines. I was accused yesterday of being a whinger. I comment on what the models show, which is what this forum is about surely. I just say it how it is, I don't believe in sugar coating. This morning, the ecm and gfs look great for the weekend and at last we have some consistency. Just need ukmo to join the party now.

(puts on old croaky voice) I remember 1976 in southern England - trees going yellow in July due to lack of water. Parents looking worried (Dad bought more wine to compensate). Cracks in the ground in fields. Window frames warping.

The Ecm 12z looks pretty good for the south of the uk, especially the south-east with generally warm / very warm conditions, there is plenty of fine weather too with sunny spells under high pressure / ridges at times too. If I was in the south I would be happy about the upcoming weather in the next week to ten days.

Equally in Winter when they get plenty of snow, you don't here me moaning when we miss out. Best keep quiet if you've got nothing constructive to say. Nothing worse than moaning whining people throwing their toys out of the pram when they don't get the weather they want. Moan in the moaning thread and keep this one clear for model related posts.

Being as this year has been very quiet for me storms wise (only a hand full of one flash one bang storms since January plus one reasonable storm in May around the River Severn), I have to confess that I'm starting to feel really quite storm starved, so I've just been having a look at what the good ole GFS is forecasting, and I came across these gems. And at two weeks away, what could possible go wrong between now and then? *prays to the weather gods*

Quite a few damselflies around the morning that I think are Common Blue but I'm no expert.

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP. A favourite mantra of mine is it is the net collective signals (from the tropics and extra-tropics) that lead the models, not the models that lead the signals - the latter belief of which is how posts appear to be slanted by some on here. Its the net balance outcome of these signals at any given time (which is in constant natural flux) that determines the push and pull of the jet stream and which in turn determines the circumglobal positions of troughs and ridges. We cannot always trust the models to read these signals correctly, and often enough they slam on the brakes into reverse when they realise something else is going on. As posted the other day, a transitory signal from the tropics is adding a modest amount of easterly winds to a global atmospheric circulation that has a decent total amount of westerly inertia in it (relative to the restrictions of an ENSO neutral signal) That total 'westerlyness' of the atmosphere is registered in total atmospheric angular momentum which heading through the first week of June has been running close to +1SD set well against a similar longer term trend of neutral/weakly +ve AAM. . Clearly from that there is more westerly inertia in the atmosphere than easterly - and it is the westerly inertia that promotes warm downstream European ridges - regardless of whether these are always able to extend their influence over the whole of the UK except in the most classic summers for any extended time. The models (especially the GFS with its I/O tropical bias) will be, and have been shown to be already, prone for being too progressive with any attempts to scrub westerlies from the atmospheric circulation and hence break down heights over Europe at the expense of heights to the W and NW. In context, we are some way away from the position of another a summer such as 2011 which had emerged from a strong La Nina event and struggled (and failed) to shake off the shackles of this atmospheric imprint despite the ENSO base state moving away from La Nina during that summer. GLAAM continued to register up to -2SD throughout summer 2011 As a result of this, the summer that year saw tropical forcing concentrated throughout in the Indian Ocean, due to the La Nina footprint. The upshot of an Indian Ocean tropical forcing signal is to decelerate the Pacific jet and amplify the pattern further upstream from the Pacific with the result that the longwave pattern will accordingly adjust retrogressively. In this way the downstream sequence of ridges and troughs evolves into an Atlantic ridge and downstream trough in our sector of the NH. No surprise the summer of 2011 was AWOL of any warm air advection summer downstream ridges and the default was the Pacific and Atlantic ridge and Scandinavian and/or /UK trough. Plenty of illustrations from the archives of that summer, but these few are typical enough. Despite this weeks UK hiccup, the late Spring and early Summer period has already displayed far more inclination to pump up warm European based mid latitude ridges than was seen in the whole of that summer. IMBY perspective distorts this true perception. In the present, total relative atmospheric angular momentum is down, as a response to the I/O signal. It is this which the models are reading in terms of the medium term shifts. But relative AAM is the response to the fluid flux of tropical and extra tropical signals at any given time and not necessarily an indicator of future sustained trends. Hence why caution needs to be taken in terms of extrapolating suggested hemisphere shifts in NWP into any long term trend. In this way, any NWP suggestion of the appearance of a retrogressed Atlantic ridge (and potential downstream trough) has to be judged in perspective as a snapshot in time against the background state of this summer rather than any semi permanent sea change. That also means it has to be viewed within the parameters that the atmospheric circulation will allow in terms of ebb and flow of atmospheric angular momentum. The atmosphere can disconnect from the ocean ENSO default signal to a point as happened in 2011 in terms of the continuation of a defacto Nina signal, but boundaries always exist according to how much both westerlies and easterlies can be added to global wind-flows (the Jetstream) c/o tropical forcing into the extra tropics at any given time. This year, despite any trend towards a definitive El Nino seeming less likely in the foreseeable future that seemed possible not too long back (and which would help boost summer prospects more towards sustained heat) those boundaries are still set some way higher than they were in the likes of 2011. I would continue to view any deviation from the default signal of Atlantic trough and downstream European ridge as an interruption to the status quo rather than any sea change (if it happens at all). The GEFS is almost certainly exaggerating the allowable bandwidth to a low angular momentum state (c/o Indian Ocean forcing) and therefore its modelling (and any other modelling which suggests the same far flung 2011 style La Nina summer pattern) should be taken with a large truck-load of salt. The ridge may ebb and flow east and west, and this will effect how the trough interplays with it, but as stated in the previous post the other day, any sustained switch to a displaced Atlantic ridge and a cool trough is counter intuitive on the basis of evidence available. So no change in overall thinking of before and, for what little it is worth, on the basis of the perspective offered here, a decent enough summer pattern should prevail, in my opinion, even if it isn't the sustained Mediterranean classic many hope for - and will likely stay as a changeable mix of warm/very warm settled spells punctuated by trough/ridge re-loads which see the jet stream dip south briefly before further re-set. Such a pattern will always favour the south more than the north. Nothing IMBY in stating that - its just the way this type of pattern accords with position and latitude of geographical land-mass. Nothwithstanding varying north/south perceptions which are understandable to some degree, there is still far too much glass half empty in here, or disproportional face value judgement and extrapolation of NWP, as per usual. As illustrated, it could be a lot lot worse and there is set to be some days of very good summer weather to enjoy.

It not even like your from the South, you as far North as the poeple moaning. Keep posting Frosty, love Reading your posts

Agreed, I try to be constructive and upbeat but there is far too much moaning again today..it's the uk, I don't know what some people expect..a Mediterranean climate!