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Let me be clear: What Britain needs now is a strong and stable area of high pressure; 29-31C in the south and 22-26C in the north will do fine, IMO.

Looking very good from both ECM and GFS for a spell of some very nice weather from mid next week onwards Almost as good looking as it was for Theresa May from a similar distance away! Let's hope the models serve us better than the polls did in terms of advising us how things will end up!

We have good agreement now on the flatter outcome for mid-next week (pending the delayed ECM 12z), but this is in fact a case of 'lose a little, win a little' because the flatter jet encourages a strong north-eastward ridging of the Azores High by the weekend while also propelling a lot of warm air in our direction to accompany it. At that point the surface conditions will depend heavily on the position and shape of the high pressure. The GFS 12z opts for a very round area of HP that becomes just off the coast of N. Ireland by Sunday, with warm air aloft but a relatively cool surface flow off the N. Sea affecting many eastern parts - though I believe the impact is overdone by the model, and temps should be higher than the mostly low-20s being shown for western parts. The GEM 12z on the other hand has the high stretched right across from the SW as it maintains more of a classic extension of the subtropical ridge across the UK, and with uppers above 10*C for all but a tiny patch over the Solent, it looks capable of producing temps widely in the mid-20s, perhaps high 20s in the usual hot-spots. Going forward, GFS is still trying for a shift in the HP to sit west of the UK but with less enthusiasm than before, while GEM keeps abroad trough to the NW with the extended ridge nicely maintained (quite the flip from the 00z which developed blocking to the W and NW). Hopefully the ECM 12z will be more toward GEM 12z, just as the 00z was

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, no downgrade whatsoever since last night's 12z, we are still on course for a change to increasingly settled and very warm weather during the course of next week as the azores high builds strongly across the uk with plenty of sunshine and soaring temps as we tap into continental air with temperatures into the mid to upper 20's celsius for the southern half of the uk and warm further north too.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly settled / warm spell developing next week as the azores high builds across the uk..a very summery spell looks like its on the way...flaming June.

Evening gang ,really love coming on here for a good read .Iam following all posts most days ,usually when i take a break from nursing my beautiful wife who is very poorly at present ,heres hoping that current mid range models are correct that we could get our summer back soon . Just dont know where the time goes these days ,wont be long now till the winter of hell arrives .so onto the models and the positioning of any high pressure will be very critical ,it all could go bang with storms next weekend or just plain v warm and dry ,or even the high slipping away to open the door to our friend the Atlantic ,all very interesting ,take care all and enjoy our great forum ,the best on the Net , cheers

It's very encouraging news from the latest Ecm / Gefs mean which both indicate an increasingly summery outlook next week and this is reinforced by the latest update from Exeter with a good chance of a hot spell towards the end of next week into week 2..and further ahead sounds very summery too with spells of very warm / hot weather, plenty of sunshine with a risk of thundery outbreaks, especially further south..it looks like this summer will deliver some superb weather!

A very pleasing GEFS 6z mean as we look further ahead, especially from next midweek onwards with a strong surge from the azores high with increasing warmth and sunshine. The mean looks summery which is great to see for the mid / late June period with temps well into the 20's celsius, especially further south.

More like ECM makes less of the ridge, not nothing - but it is indeed a more unstable run with a likelihood of thunderstorms across the SE in particular Sun-Mon. Signs of a new ridge from the west on day 10 although it would probably not be soon or strong enough to save the northwest from seeing a bit of rain off the Atlantic for a time. I'd say this is a more 2006-style approach as opposed to 1995-style. Looks sufficient for 30*C to be breached in the SE Sat and/or Sun given day-on-day heat build. It's an interesting but relatively low probability outcome given the close alignment of the other three. I don't ever dare to fully cast aside the ECM though.

Whatever happens please can we be rid of this cloudy breezy/windy cold nonsense!

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the azores high building in next week, especially later in the week bringing increasingly warm / settled conditions with plenty of sunshine, initially for southern parts before extending to most of the uk..it's classic summer weather as we gradually import hot and humid continental air north into the uk with a risk of T-Storms later, especially across the s / se..summery weather looks set to return.

Evening All.... Ecm and gts show a pressure rise next week, in about a weeks time , ecm makes nothing of it ,gfs shows a bigger build of high pressure. Normal summer output....!!!

Lol Huge difference at five days out, the GFS/UKMO have the jet blowing through the south of the UK, the ECM takes it north of the UK. ECM by day 7 looks like it could develop a proper UK heatwave with a strong broad ridge. Still looks like it will slowly turn settled from the south west, though its progress northwards is still in question and the eventual position of the high doesn't look overly ideal.

I think the high will be worth waiting for, in the meantime it doesn't look too bad, some fine and warm weather to enjoy before the main event!

Indeed there is some fine warm weather at times next week for the south of the uk before the major anticyclone builds in..looking very good to me. :- )

Have a great holiday,im off to greece in august to escape the british summer weather tbh...anyway looking pleasant and dry,in the southeast at least...

Plenty of lovely high pressure from later next week onwards with warmth and sunshine on the Gfs 12z.

You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.

Awesome and unexpected storm tonight, lots of flashing, rumbles and the odd strike to ground! Totally unforecasted

Moderate rain and currently 9c.The reason I know this is were woken by a terrible noise outside the house which appears to have been a fight between badgers or a cat and badgers although to dark to tell. One cat rescued from hedge and we now know the reason the dog was growling earlier this evening as badgers seem to be patrolling round the house every night just now.

a long funnel cloud just past Calshot spit...pretty close...past quickly...the wind was a high roaring sound.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021 agree, next week looking fairly average, westerlies to dominate, would say 17° and showery all week for this location, 20° expected in SE

Wooo! It's my 40th birthday and so far Tresemme has lost her majority and the Glastonbury weather is looking great Just one more week... this time next Friday I'll be onsite.... please let it be a sunny dry festival....

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Jun 2017 to Friday 23 Jun 2017: As next week progresses settled conditions are likely to extend across the United Kingdom with some sunny spells developing, but there may be occasional spells of rain across the north and west, where it will be breezy at times. Feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, especially in any sunshine, and it could become very warm or hot in places over the weekend, particularly across the south. Into the following week, and it will probably remain settled at first, but there are signs that more unsettled conditions are likely to develop. These more unsettled conditions may well be preceded by thundery downpours, particularly in the south, where temperatures are likely to remain very warm or hot. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Had a small storm last night at 11.30pm. Counted five flashes and one rumble on the first flash. I think it sideswiped us which is why I could see the subsequent flashes light up the room but was too far away for the rest of the thunder to be audible. The rain was really heavy which was nice. Sent me to sleep. A storm loving mate of mine who lives to the south of Sevenoaks said it came right over him and was very loud.

No comments this morning? You'd think there'd been an election or something! Still good trends, but subtle differences starting to emerge as to how quickly the high builds, and how it ends up sitting over the UK. GFS quickly pulls the high out west and cools things down, but this ends up as one of the coldest ensemble members: Plenty still anchor the high and keep it warm. It probably won't be until after the weekend we get firmer details, as there is quite a bit of ensemble spread from day 4/5, which will translate into the extended parts of the runs being wrong.

Got woken unexpectedly by a really loud crack! Plenty of lightning including some good close CG's. A very nice surprise!

Where did that come from, like others watered the garden to make sure things didn't totally dry out due to the wind. Woke up to a major thunderstorm lots lightening, plenty of rain, almost overhead That must be around the 5/6th thunderstorm this year so far, pretty good seeing as early June.

The front cells were certainly IC in my area. I couldn't get east quick enough to get a clear view after this, I guess I missed out.. Much better than I was expecting though and I agree the radar looked great

Incorrect I was on the hills just outside of Hythe and there were numerous strikes to ground... Great radar returns too!

Torrential rain and lot's of lighting & thunder really wasn't expecting this don't know what to wacht the storm or the film we started watching lol 3rd. Storm in a couple of weeks.

There was a massive thunderclap here in Dover earlier, it woke a lot of people up (evidently from bedroom lights going on). Some pretty heavy rain right now too.

Loud cracks and now it's psssssssin down.

Thunder, Lightning and Heavy rain in Rayleigh

In Cuxton here with a great view to the south, getting a good light show.

Lots of visible lightening here at the top of the hill in New ash Green - Cloud tops look a little away to the east - say M26 bound- first storm for me here

Had about 4-5 flashes and rumbles here. Still can't believe it as I wasn't expecting much in the way of rain let alone thundery activity

Just seen a few flashes of lightning outside my window but only heard a distant rumble.

absolutely hammering it down now. It took me ages to water the plants this evening if I knew this was going to arrive I would'nt of bothered....lol

3 flashes and thunder here.

I don't know but was a surprise to me, now hearing thunder.

Just saw some IC out toward east London from my 10th floor office view in west London

Been darn sarf for a few days, got wet repeatedly. Visited youngest HC in Edinburgh on the way home today and got drenched just looking for a cafe. Home this evening, got hosed just unloading the car. Garden flourishing, house cold. Not complaining, yet.

Yeah, seems that nocturnal cooling is helping this lot to keep persisting. Heading northeast, fairly quickly by the looks of it.

Good look down in the SE guys,looks good

8th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK with High Pressure rising albeit with a westerly flow to start the week. At this stage it seems likely that this High Pressure will build over the UK by the end of next week. This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend. In the immediate run up to the Glastonbury, there is a wide variety of options with no real certainty. After the gates open Three of the runs shows High Pressure over or ridging over the UK, over the course of the festival, three of the runs have low pressure at some stage, with one keeping High Pressure in control. NOAA Charts 6-10 day charts shows dominant High pressure over the UK, while the 8-14 day charts shows a ride of High Pressure over the UK. Total Rainfall All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 25mm over the next 16 days, so currently looking pretty dry. However slightly further north is much wetter, so a slight word of caution. Ensembles After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, this only slowly dropping back with more uncertainty around the festival start, average pressure back to 1015mb. Rainfall amounts are looking low for the duration of the run. Thoughts Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.

GFS on the left still giving us a hard time as it breaks a low away east from the main Atlantic trough and so keeps the jet flatter and in fact travelling right across central UK. A shallow low is also generated over France which moves NE to Scandi where it encourages the ridge to take on not the greatest of orientations for warmth as it finally manages to build through the UK over the following few days. UKMO keeps things simpler with no breakaway Atlantic low and nothing consolidating over Europe anywhere near the UK, but we do see the ridge showing more sign compared to previous runs of the extended ridge breaking in two. Any split-off would be likely to stall somewhere close to our east and gain some strength as the Atlantic trough drives warm air over it aloft (which then sinks and reinforces the ridge). We'd warm up a fair bit but be at risk of a thundery breakdown occurring before long. It's probable, though, that the trough out west would align similar to what the ECM 00z showed at +168, in which case the Azores High will extend a new ridge to the NE to join with our current run and something similar to that ECM run would follow. - that being a run that showed an outcome that was a bit flatter than the UKMO 12z but without the breakaway low of the GFS 12z, which is optimal for a fast-track to warmth without sacrificing stability. Hopefully the 12z ECM won't follow the GFS 12z with it's irritating complications. I know the 00z yesterday was along similar lines so the outcome likely remains among the EC Ens. somewhere. Seems like we often struggle to achieve those nice neat transitions to a fine spell, but there's still plenty of hope at the moment. Oh and GEM's nice again, for anyone wondering; +144 is close to the UKMO 12z but slightly to the NW with the ridge position, which suggests to me that the reinforcement from the SW remains more likely than the split-off scenario

This chart could also be interpreted as a typical frequency and strength of high pressure across the UK and NW Europe (decent enough) and less low pressure than usual trying to get in from the west. The poleward bulge in the contour lines over Europe further supports this deduction. This is not bad going for a multi-ensemble-run-mean. The anomalously high heights over Greenland could be an issue though, as lows may tend to become low moving N of the UK at times resulting in a changeable W to NW flow. So perhaps quite a variable month overall but with at least an average amount of fine weather to be had. Actually quite similar to your deduction after all - it's only the mid-Atlantic ridge part I'm not so sure about Just one model of course and it will be interesting to see what GloSea5 has been getting up to with the next update from the Met Office that should be online within the next 5 days.

This year is starting to feel downright malicious; having a May that favours spreading out of increasingly thin ice when it was already thin to start with, and then following up with an early-mid June dominated by 'warm blocking' and a Pacific dipole pattern is like a super-villain's master plan to destroy the Arctic atmosphere and ecosystem. Even the smaller details leading up to the June misdemeanors are just right for maximising the level of impact; Day 4 and a ridge centred over the Pacific side joins forces with an elongated trough to send some exceptionally warm (in fact quite hot) air (850s are a reasonable guide here) through Alaska and right over to the Aleutians.Meanwhile blocking over Barents/Kara works in conjunction with a shallow low moving a little west of north toward Greenland to send a wide wedge of unusually warm air through Scandinavia. This one sees more in the way of modification from residual snow cover but not by a lot so it'll still pack a serious punch at the surface as it moves over the 'easy ice' on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Substantial losses may occur in the space of just a week. Day 5 and troughs simultaneously moving into place over N. Canada and the Siberian coastal Arctic act in combination with the blocking to form a bridge of both high pressure and exceptionally warm air. Even allowing for extensive surface modification I can see a large proportion of the CAB experiencing above-freezing temps at least intermittently. Day 6 and the lows have not merged across the N. Pole which would be a good way to cut-off the warm air influx. Now I do still see this as something that could yet manifest after all, but with GFS having moved away from it after considering it on previous days, the chances of that have unfortunately become much lower over the past 24 hours. Only right out at day 9 do we finally see a low moving across the CAB to interrupt the anomalously warm spell... well, mitigate it at least. - but look at that fat finger of exceptional warmth through the ESS... this has been a feature of many recent GFS runs (see 06s and 12z on right), and a source of much disbelief among followers of the Arctic sea ice progression, yet now we have ECM showing something just about as dramatic! This being as the strong blocking behind the Pacific dipole chooses eastern Asia as a vacation spot, while the seemingly eternal central-Asian/Siberian trough activity continues to throw warm air across to that region from SW/S parts of Asia. Back when I was doing studies in Reading, I can recall seeing a reconstruction of sea ice in the 1950s in which one of the early years had a sharp dip in ice extent. I have since found that 1953 saw a similarly persistent central-Asian/Siberian trough well into the year. If my memory is accurate and this isn't just a coincidence... well, it doesn't bode well at all for the Arctic sea ice this summer