Leaderboard

An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atmosphere in better shape for sure than the usual suspect seasons of more recent years that went on to replicate todays rank offerings time after time. Best re-state that again for any who might be on doom-watch Tropical convection has tracked eastward through the Maritimes towards the West Pacific and the associated rise in atmospheric angular momentum tendency encouraged amplification of our downstream ridge ahead of the Atlantic trough in the closing period of May. The Global Wind Oscillation ( which is a representation of total global wind-flows as depicted through ebbs and flows in the jet-stream ribbon) has echoed this pattern with a decent amplitude Phase 4 orbit (to the very start of the month). This is a pre-cursor Nino phase (Nino phases are 5,6,7) and appropriately reflects a peak bandwidth of our neutral/slightly +ve GLAMM ocean>atmospheric circulation coupling The result, for many, a very pleasant 10 day spell of summer-like weather which rounded off a warm and very dry Spring as a whole. However, the MJO signal is abruptly aborting on its eastwards trek and losing signal back towards the Western Hemisphere. The atmospheric response is immediately to scrub the westerly winds added to the atmosphere through the eastwards moving tropical convection (and which had triggered the downstream rossby waves that amplified our Western European ridge). At the same time, after a flip from the seasonal final warming of the stratosphere had seen low heights percolate through the stratosphere right down to the tropospheric level during much of May, there has been some (temporary) low level tropospheric warming developing again, related to seasonal changes between the arctic and mid latitudes (especially in view of the unstable arctic sea ice) The nose of small orange shading (weakly positive height anomaly) depicts this on the bottom of the plot as we start June This has been mirrored by enough of a higher latitude blocking signal to depress the jet stream southwards, engage a steep temperature gradient to fuel secondary lows, and also squeeze out the mid latitude Euro ridge far enough away from us to, largely, shunt the hot and humid tropical continental plume elements of the warm air advection ahead of these depressions into mainland Europe. The SE corner maybe edging the periphery of the higher plume content of the WAA created by the last low, in the on-going chain, this weekend - and which looks to sharpen ahead of its approach in the Atlantic more than its predecessors. As atmospheric angular momentum tendency snaps back with the loss of the upstream eastward moving tropical forcing signal to the weak and indeterminate state back in the Western Hemisphere, then the consequent easterly winds added from the tropics as a result of this depress frictional torque (leading to negative tendency also in mountain torque). This exchange from the tropics (MJO) to the extra tropics ( including mountain torque) is what determines the changes in AAM tendency and jet stream wind-flow which change the weather patterns across the hemisphere. In terms of translating the Global Synoptic Dynamical Modelling (GSDM) to simple NWP synoptic pattern, this process decelerates the jet stream from upstream in the Pacific and across the US - and the sequence of lows is halted as pressure rises across from the Azores and mid Atlantic in the vacuum created by the abrupt deceleration of the jet. The models are now advertising this change quite clearly heading into next week but handling it differently in some cases. I think that the GEFS, prone as it is to West Hemisphere/Indian Ocean tropical forcing bias (and weaker than ECM in terms of modelling the extra tropics) has been susceptible in the last day or so to overdo the signal for amplified Atlantic height rises (as well as arctic heights). Taking into account the fact that the stratosphere/troposphere profile (above) continues to show a cool anomaly quite far down, and that background GLAMM is buoyant, this precludes and rather contra- intuitively questions a low angular momentum response that suggests building an amplified Atlantic ridge to our west and retaining the departing trough into Scandinavia straddling back towards the UK resulting in a cool possibly showery NW'erly. On that basis the current ECM and GEM 10 day ensemble means are good value for the background signals with the Azores ridge stretching eastwards and the default trough overspreading back into the Atlantic - effectively re-setting the default trough/ridge pattern (not Atlantic ridge/UK/Scandinavian trough). Updated GEFS suite still a more amplified Atlantic ridge and stubborn stronger Scandinavian trough, but starting to re-adjust the departing weekend trough away quicker to the NE and the incoming ridge closer to the UK Probably pleasantly warm with low humidity - the orientation and position of High very likely not far enough east for any plume scenarios These are the graphical representation of the latest ECM ensembles for London - representative enough to support the idea of some pleasant average summer warmth through the mid month period Looking further ahead, subject to return of the tropical cycle eastwards once more, that sets up the prospect of another heating trend occurring through late June, as the ridge by this time edges back to the east to re-engage the trough as recently. Therefore more heat and humidity possible as time goes on - more especially late June and into July So reasonable prospect of some fine pleasantly warm weather to banish this weeks dismal offerings to the perspective of a temporary if unwelcome memory - though the trough may return close to north western parts at times. Latest ECM 4 weekly shows continuity from previous updates and reasonably reflects steady improvements for second half of the month and especially late month and into July .

The ecm mean is a lot better than the 0z,at 240 hrs we have the best ridge of high pressure at 1020 than the rest of the world at our latitude,bring it on

Oh!! yes baby

If you are not a fan of heat,look away now,the 12z gfs is a corker and would make for a nice birthday present ok,the 850's are not that warm but it is miles better than prevous runs,i just hope this trend continues and not be a warm outlier.

Just had a small thunderstorm pass through Ashford, saw a few CTC but didn't record any footage. But I did take a few pictures of the wonderful Mammatus clouds today under 2 storms

Thanks for the detailed round-up @Tamara , I keep losing track of the GWO/GLAAM developments as - ironically - I spend so much time working on other areas of research and development . So while on the face of it the model trend this evening resembles a backing-down from having shown too much of an MJO phase 6 response, this is really more of an overdone IO forcing by GEFS (in particular) that happens to bear close resemblance. The usual horrendously large negative GLAAM bias beyond about a week's range. At least knowing of that I was expecting an improvement in that model's output anyway . So now we have two models (UKMO and ECM) moving the weekend low very slowly through to Sun with the SE tasting the fringes of a continental plume - at the risk of some destabilisation impacts perhaps, depending on the interplay with the base of the trough (i.e. with associated upper convergence and divergence regions). GFS remains more progressive but has trended slower over the past four runs. As if for a laugh we then have ECM flirting with a Scandi trough more than the other two, but this looks to be driven not by a GFS-like overcooking of IO forcing but instead a more meridional jet ahead of the large-scale deceleration. This could just be the model showing it's amplification bias - though the range is a bit short for it to be a major factor. For 8 days from now, the evening runs feature one very pleasant outcome, one rather cool but drying up and trending warmer afterward as the ridge drifts east, and one with an impressive blocking high sat right overhead (thanks to split jet setup as explained by CreweCold earlier). Not bad going at all Interesting that it appears GEM may well have some of the negative GLAAM bias that GFS does, though it's also known to over-amplify so the true balance of play is somewhat mysterious.

From best to worst - quite the spread of outcomes still for the weekend low's strength and track. Amazing that UKMO has it so much weaker than ECM and GFS. Anyone's guess going into next week. There seems to be no dominant signal whatsoever. UKMO seems to be the only one even trying to restore an Atlantic trough/NW Europe ridge pattern as would be expected when just considering seasonal wavelength changes against a neutral ENSO background... this stalled Scandi trough idea from GFS and GEM is a surprising one to be seeing for mid-June this year. It may be because by some measures the MJO has just about made it into phase 6 with significant amplitude at the moment, which may be enough to produce a lagged response on the Scandi heights tendency; So it could be a case of hard luck there - but only if GFS and GEM are not propagating the response too cleanly. ECM introduces a major complication in the form of a broad mid-Atlantic trough days 8-10, with the combined picture favouring a changeable regime, most settled in the south and least so in the north. Just one of a myriad of possibilities as we struggle to find a more enjoyable weather pattern as there has been so much hope for by the final third or week or the month.

I am very much liking the way the models seem to be in general agreement with their predictions for mid-June: GFS 12Z: ECM: GEM: Dont know what UKMO might have up its sleeve because they won't let us see that far ahead! If the patterns still look like this in a few days time we would be very close to a warm settled spell of proper summer weather. I wonder if the current unusual degree of consensus between the models means that these predictions are pretty much in the bag? I have to say that a change from the current windy, wet, showery, quite cold (and did I say very windy) weather will be exceedingly welcome in these parts.

Wish you guys would speak english

All depends on what happens around this critical point IMO This is day 8- The 12z shows the perfect scenario where you get enough split of the jet to enable the high pressure to stay in situ for days on end. However, should there be less of a tendency for that inflection of the jet (up through Iceland) then we'd either have a scenario where the HP is readily flattened and thus letting a NW/SE split occur (very common) or a scenario where too much jet energy is being modelled in the northern arm and we see mean jet energy shift S and allow an 'overshoot' of the HP with LP eventually encroaching from the SW. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out because the 12z GFS is advocating a prolonged period of dry and warm weather...

Stupid phone... Sorry for loads of posts

Relentless rain here too, given the dry May its a welcomed deluge indeed Some pics pre-Saturday's thunderstorm to add to skifreak's cracker from the river ness, these taken above the town at bogbain. Had an apocalyptic vibe

And,,,,,,,my feet are firmly on the ground,well,hopefully in the sea come later next week.

The control run is a peach of a run in the latter stages

Just spotted this tiny bit of mamatus on that Heathrow hail shower.

GFS 06z is kind enough to find a path to the mid-Atlantic trough and NW-Europe ridge with the Scandi trough only a transitional feature. Takes until Tue for the breeze to properly die down though. I wonder if this will be one of the windiest 7- or 8-day periods on record for June?

Not sure how to describe today, but bloody awful certainly fits the bill. Amazing scenes earlier around here with felled branches, flooding and heavy rain making this afternoon's road journey very tricky. My garden rain gauge has measured 27 mm of rain today (over an inch in old money). Here's a photo taken on the way back later this afternoon. The continuous rain had cleared to be replaced with some heavy showers. And still blowing a hoolie this evening! We were meant to get this in April not June!!

Yes,just looked let's not get carried away just yet though,still a week away and hopefully it will get warmer than this nearer the time

That would still be a warm day without particularly decent uppers at this time of year.

The GEM following the gfs?,not quiet but it too is getting there i await the ECM

Relentless rain. Wind wasn't actually anything this morning but that's picked up too. Total write off of a day (but the rain is needed I suppose)

I can't believe how things can change so quick it's worse than what we have had all winter it's really hard to think it's actually June not January heavy rain gales what next snow lol . I know we needed the water but hopefully it will go as quickly as it came because yesterday was nice here.

If I can find one 'bright side' to today, at least I'm not going to need to water the veg patches and the garden in general for a few days at the very earliest. Oh, extracted another 40+lbs of honey on Sunday, so that breaks the 100lbs mark overall so far this year. At least as far as the bees are concerned it's been a good spring. Slightly worried that something has happened with the queen in one hive though as it's not looking 'happy'. Hopefully, nature will prevail and they'll create a new queen without needing too much help from us.

You aren't imagining things Summer Sun... the centre is much further west than was modelled a couple of days back. Sunday actually looks pretty warm on the UKMO run for the SE.....the brief pulse of heat is also there on the GFS and ECM this morning, but is more pronounced on the UKMO. Looking much quieter thereafter, but no heat wave on the cards.....for now.

Is it me or has the low at the weekend tracked a bit further west compared to a few days back? I'm fairly certain UKMO had Saturday's low right over the UK on Sunday's 00z and 12z

This year is starting to feel downright malicious; having a May that favours spreading out of increasingly thin ice when it was already thin to start with, and then following up with an early-mid June dominated by 'warm blocking' and a Pacific dipole pattern is like a super-villain's master plan to destroy the Arctic atmosphere and ecosystem. Even the smaller details leading up to the June misdemeanors are just right for maximising the level of impact; Day 4 and a ridge centred over the Pacific side joins forces with an elongated trough to send some exceptionally warm (in fact quite hot) air (850s are a reasonable guide here) through Alaska and right over to the Aleutians.Meanwhile blocking over Barents/Kara works in conjunction with a shallow low moving a little west of north toward Greenland to send a wide wedge of unusually warm air through Scandinavia. This one sees more in the way of modification from residual snow cover but not by a lot so it'll still pack a serious punch at the surface as it moves over the 'easy ice' on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Substantial losses may occur in the space of just a week. Day 5 and troughs simultaneously moving into place over N. Canada and the Siberian coastal Arctic act in combination with the blocking to form a bridge of both high pressure and exceptionally warm air. Even allowing for extensive surface modification I can see a large proportion of the CAB experiencing above-freezing temps at least intermittently. Day 6 and the lows have not merged across the N. Pole which would be a good way to cut-off the warm air influx. Now I do still see this as something that could yet manifest after all, but with GFS having moved away from it after considering it on previous days, the chances of that have unfortunately become much lower over the past 24 hours. Only right out at day 9 do we finally see a low moving across the CAB to interrupt the anomalously warm spell... well, mitigate it at least. - but look at that fat finger of exceptional warmth through the ESS... this has been a feature of many recent GFS runs (see 06s and 12z on right), and a source of much disbelief among followers of the Arctic sea ice progression, yet now we have ECM showing something just about as dramatic! This being as the strong blocking behind the Pacific dipole chooses eastern Asia as a vacation spot, while the seemingly eternal central-Asian/Siberian trough activity continues to throw warm air across to that region from SW/S parts of Asia. Back when I was doing studies in Reading, I can recall seeing a reconstruction of sea ice in the 1950s in which one of the early years had a sharp dip in ice extent. I have since found that 1953 saw a similarly persistent central-Asian/Siberian trough well into the year. If my memory is accurate and this isn't just a coincidence... well, it doesn't bode well at all for the Arctic sea ice this summer

Half an hour ago, HDR phone shot as the storm was bearing down on Inverness before I u-turned to the Starbucks coffee lounge in the Palace Hotel! Still flashing away round about. Is that a wee funnel above the left bank beyond the Church?

I nearly put Tuesday 6th of November Very windy cloudy start Temp 11.7c

I remember seeing this picture on Flickr at the beginning of December 2010.. it's of Cookridge Street in Leeds. I always thought it was very atmospheric. Almost like it was taken 100 years prior.

I've lifted this from the in depth model thread as it seems pertinent in view of the lovely 12Z run from the GFS. Nice assessment from GP, all based on teleconnections. You are suffering the 2007 bit currently (get it out of the way quick ) but the 1995 redux is showing in all its glory from next weekend. Just a reminder of what the charts looked like for back then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=6&hour=12&year=1995&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=era

It was a shall we say an interesting trip today to work . My trip got diverted due to trains cancelled. When I got off to wait for the bus it seemed like monsoon season it was driving rain and I kid you not there was around 10 dumped broken umbrellas at the bus stop. Anyway on the way home I dodged the showers but did get this shot of a shower and rainbow nearby . The rainbow was very low in the sky it actually surprised me .

Lets hope the trends improve , about time we had a hot dry solstice. Been a while.

I like the look of that,12z gfs air pressure for my location,yes the control and op are at the top end but the majority are there

GFS 12z showing around 22c for that time period in my area at least. I hope it doesn't go higher and repeat the conditions a few weeks back. I know most of you would relish 30c from now until the autumn, but 21/22 is enough for me; a fan is still useful and the nights are not as sticky.

Ecm comes to the party too...as others have said, you don't need really high 850s in summer to get a nice day. As long as you have a clear high pressure, temps will climb into the mid 20s with 850s around 5-8c some of the time. As ever, more runs will be needed to nail down a change in pattern, but tonight's output is a great start.

High pressure building in from the SW at 168hrs on the ECM,the 192hrs should just about do it i would of thought. not quiet but getting there,i feel that this is going to be a good run from the ecm

Bank that GFS op run all the way. Hopefully the ECM will back it later.

Was just going to say the same as I am "Singing In The Rain " today as the whole farm was needing this even the cattle are lying out in the open getting washed. Currently very wet and 10c

The last three hours had 26mm the last 24hrs total 46mm the last 48hrs total 57mm.... lovely June so far.... since 8am been pretty heavy to torrential at times..... 10c.... hoping weekend dries out going to wedding Saturday and BBQ Sunday then getting bathrooms ripped out Monday going to take three weeks to do three bathrooms.... plus new huge boiler...plus tenants from London move in to my old house this Thursday.....

Well...I'm sure this should have warranted a yellow as driving conditions are poor, A road is really slow. Dread to think how my allotment is getting on. (ok, it was nice going to sleep listening to the wind in the trees last night..but it's pretty wild out there this morning). @stainesbloke @lassie23 Had no intention of buying a melon but we went for a country drive and ended up in this garden centre where people were just snapping up these melon plants for a pound and I though what have I got to lose!!

I've found planting melons closeby has really helped my marrow grow

But it does not get the point across, I have searched using Google and cannot find any reference to the word in meteorology so why use it? Simple words mean far more than clever phrases. I suggest this as an ex senior weather forecaster.

5th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) Remaining mostly unsettled this week, with west to South West winds favoured towards the weekend, with Low Pressure in control especially Saturday with moderate rain currently modelled. Next week it steadily turns more settled as high Pressure builds in from the West to South West; currently fairly good inter model agreement with the ECM also supporting this development. Thereafter model agreement breaks down but no real sign of massively unsettled weather at this stage. NOAA Charts A continuation of the theme, unsettled day 6-10, a bit more settled days 8-14. Total Rainfall The 4 runs now have total rainfall over the next 16 days, between 1 and 2 inches, this is partly due to today’s heavy rain now excluded from the runs, and also that the models have gone for a drier spell of weather than expected last week. Ensembles Remaining unsettled conditions expected from Monday to Saturday, with heavy rain possible on Saturday. After this turning a lot more unsettled by the middle of the following week with High Pressure, however very little agreement in the run up to the festival. Longer Term (up to T+384 16 days) Of the 4 daily charts, three have some degree of High Pressure, the other has Low Pressure over southern parts of the UK [18Hz].

I'm very surprised there is no with trees in full leaf there should be IMO.

Gotta love accuweather - promising me 6 thunderstorms before the end of August ...

Thank you for the welcome the 'powers that be' get specific warnings from the MET office but all that comes down to me is the notification when we are expecting certain conditions which cause significant damage to the network. high winds, snow, torrential heavy rain, all that jazz. problem is the ole MET office isnt always too accurate, many is the time we have geared up for a 'storm'; got loads in on overtime and then.... nothing happens. Thunderstorms are quite an interesting one, you can get a massive storm which hardly hits anything then some small cell with only a few strike hits with total accuracy and causes a small very regional problem.

Yes I think you are right on the two sharp topped peaks being Carn Chuinneag, there was a thunderstorm over that direction yesterday but alas we just got the rain and distant thunder.

Best storm in years here currently. Lightning every 10 to 20 secs altho shrouded by rain so mostly flashes and pea size hail.

Disagree, I think it's interesting weather the models are showing next week and some of us need the rain.

Good afternoon everyone, first time poster. A nicer enough day so far up here in the Highlands and pleasantly warm in the sun. This picture is looking south towards the Mountains of Easter Ross.