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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/06/17 in all areas
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Have to say that those of a summery disposition in the se of the uk should be smiling and even the nw of the country can look forward to a decent period post next weekend - the euro heights asserting themselves against the Atlantic troughing as the runs tick down.3 points
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The ecm extended tonight holds much more promise - polar heights decrease markedly by 240 hours, and the trough pulls back into the atlantic. GFS showing similar too. Please be a trend setter!2 points
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With nothing happening on our shores at present, Turin is taking a bit of a hit http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/piemonte/torino/alpi-graie.html http://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/piemonte/torino/aeroporto-aeritalia.html2 points
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June does tend to be a wet month and the model runs in the last few days look like it's going to be a wet one again this year. Got to admit disappointing charts though but after a dry winter and spring it's got to change sometime.2 points
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A new paper looking at long period central Pacific ENSO trends. Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15386 Discussion highlights. Taken together, our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has had a profound effect on SSTs in the CP, whereby anomalous warming over the last decades is accompanied by an increase in interannual variance. NIÑO4 SST values over the last two decades are likely higher than natural variations over the last 818 years, owing to a combination of relatively high CP ENSO activity and a late 20th century warming trend. In light of our results, it seems plausible that the dominance of CP ENSO extremes in the first two decades of the twenty-first century may continue, albeit with some important caveats. First, the global climate impacts of future CP ENSO extremes will critically depend on the evolution of the mean climate state in the tropical Pacific36,37, which itself is poorly constrained at present. Second, the new Taiwan tree δ18O record is the newest addition to growing archive of high-resolution paleo-data sets that can be used to probe the sensitivity of tropical Pacific climate to a variety of external climatic forcings over the recent past. One such example comes from the early- to mid-Holocene, when some models and data suggest that processional insolation forcing may have driven a shift towards greater CP ENSO activity and less East Pacific ENSO activity37. Should the dominance of CP ENSO extremes continue in the coming decades, investigations of the causes, and consequences, of any past shifts towards CP ENSO may provide some clues about future tropical Pacific climate trends and their global impacts.2 points
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Never seen anything like this progged in June before The 18z GFS is an insane run1 point
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Operational shows nothing of the sort, shows HP being sucked N through UK to reinforce higher latitude blocking? This eventually leads to a N-S split on the GFS with the S rather warm and drier and the N cloudier, windier and wetter. Further on...I've been monitoring the mean CFS output. For July the trend has been to pull the mean heights further NW run on run1 point
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Reports that a tornado flattened a Highland Games field at Cornhill earlier, the radar certainly looked interesting between 3 and 4pm with precipitation intensity > 90mm/hr on the Netweather scale and a big white blob on the old Met Office scale and it looked as if there was some degree of rotation going on.1 point
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A sunny start to the day followed by gradually increasing cloud which brought a few showers early this afternoon. The showers cleared by 1400 g.m.t and there were sunny intervals to end the afternoon. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 14.4c Max today; 16.5c Min last night; 7.1c Grass min; 4.7c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.9 mm Sunshine today so far; 7.36 hrs Mean wind speed; 10 mph SW Highest gust today; 30 mph W at 1011 g.m.t 6 oktas Cu humilis, Sc and Ac Vis; over 80 km.1 point
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Update for the week to June 3rd The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,858,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,681,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -672,000km2, an increase from -612,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -179,000km2, an increase from -126,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 7th lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -60.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -51.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -52.5k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -52.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -75.5k/day. The extent loss so far this June is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 98.7k/day is required (more than -99.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.9k/day (less than 26.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 53.3k/day (50.5k/day with single day values). The extent loss in May was the 12th smallest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.1 point
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15.9 to the 3rd 2.7 above the 61 to 90 average 2.3 above the 81 to 10 average __________________________________________ Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st1 point
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The young Blackbirds have flown the nest this morning, It looks like the Swifts are starting to build a nest in the outhouse now on the wooden perlin and and Wren is still busy feeding the young..1 point
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God, really hoping this year, last year's turned impossible and I know people say a bit of muds OK but it got to the point where even the smallest of things became a massive mission to achieve and I work there with places to charge phones and dry clothes...please please stay dry xxxxxxxxxx1 point
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GFS ofter under-exaggerates the temperatures. I see 31C in central France and darker colours going at the very bottom of that chart so I'm assuming southern France will see slightly higher temps.1 point
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Nowhere near 35C in France. And S Britain looks quite warm, small tweaks could mean warmth moves N.1 point
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Just back from a very pleasant afternoon enjoying the sunshine and music at Day 2 of the Hastings free Jazz and Blues Festival. Although quite breezy it felt warm enough at around 19c under mostly clear skies. Going back for more of the same tomorrow hopefully.1 point
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Odd day. Brilliant warm sunshine down on the beach at Leven this morning, went to Coupar this afternoon and on the way back caught the edge of what must have been torrential rain over Falkland way. More or less dry as we got home but the roads were literally steaming where they had been wet. Got home, wee bit work in the garden and quite a few rumbles but basically dry. Currently sunny spells with some looming black clouds. Warm and humid. Don't think the day has finished with us yet.1 point
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There is nothing in the anomaly charts to suggest the 500 mb flow is going to be conducive to dry and ridge building. A consistent idea for several days now. A glimmer perhaps with GFS with the ridge east of the UK. However looking at the wider scale upper prediction and there seems nothing that would suggest it moving west over the UK? http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html So in the 7-10 day period at least the outlook is for unsettled but probably warmer than average especially the further S/E one lives, less warmth (humid) the further N and W. This is after whatever the models decide to do with the predicted system for the start of next week.1 point
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As promised, here are the results. Monthly - Well done to Polar Gael getting it spot on while Mapantz was 0.2c out and Hammer50, DR(S)NO and seaside 60 each 0.3c out. Seasonal - All Change this month, with a brand new 1-2-3 vizzy2004, davehsug and Weather26. Yearly - A slight change at the top with 1. davehsug (2nd last month), 2. I remember Atlantic 252 2nd (1st) 3. vizzy2004 (8th) PDF and Excel versions available as per normal. May 2017 CET.pdf May 2017 CET.xlsx1 point
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Cantley monthly weather data for May 2017 Temperatures were above average as was the rainfall. This after a totally dry 10 days 2nd-11th Mean=14.2 (13.0) Avge Max=19.6 (17.8) Highest daytime value 29.6 on 25th with the coldest day on the 19th=12.4 Avge Min=8.8 (8.2) the coldest night was 2.9 on the 10 th and the warmest 15.4 on the 28 th Rainfall totalled 54.2 mm with 13.6 on the 17 the wettest, there were 9 days with 1.0 mm or more and 10 with 0.2 mm or more; unusual for the numbers to be so close. Nine days 2-9 inclusive with no rain at all. Two days with thunder (2) none with fog, snow, hail snow or any frost1 point
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Absolutely pointless these updates - just get rid of them please. They change them as often as the weather itself, so you can't get anything more than guesswork from them. Just stick to the short-mid term, these month ahead ones just aren't working.1 point
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