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Showing most liked content on 02/06/17 in all areas

  1. 18 likes
    Alas, due to my absurd difficulties I've snapped three images from my video until I can get into line. First two are CGs (although I cannot fathom why the second pic, which was so close, only seems to have captured the bottom half of the bolt) while the third is in the midst of what I felt was a downburst.
  2. 7 likes
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-06-02 06:50:23 Valid: 02/06/2017 06z to 03/06/2017 06z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE/ STORM FORECAST - 02 JUNE 2017 Synopsis Upper longwave trough over the North Atlantic advances eastward towards the UK on Friday, a cold front lying from SE Scotland down across NW England, Wales and far SW England at breakfast time pushes slowly east today, to lie appox. Humber to Dorset by midnight tonight. A warm and humid airmass across SE UK ahead of the cold front will become unstable this afternoon with surface heating, supporting development of a few thunderstorms. … SE ENGLAND and EAST ANGLIA … Warm/moist flow off the near continent across the above areas ahead of the cold front to the west will become increasingly unstable into this afternoon, as temperatures reach the high 20s centigrade in sunshine while low to mid-level lapse rates steepen as colder air arrives aloft with eastward advance of upper trough. GFS develops 300-600 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across the above areas, weak surface convergence and increasing large scale ascent as upper trough approaches from the west should be sufficient to allow a few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon during peak heating. 30-40 knot 500mb SWly flow may organise storms into a few linear clusters capable of producing localised high rainfall rates (20-30mm per/hour) which may lead to localised flooding. Directional shear will be fairly weak though, so storms will tend to produce only small hail and locally gusty winds. But have included a MARGINAL risk of severe weather for the risk of flooding/treacherous driving conditions.
  3. 6 likes
    Beautiful convection over C London just now. Alas, working from home today. Note the pileus cap in the second and third photos. They're so close to me but no cigar, unless that detonating line shimmies east.
  4. 6 likes
    Good Morning BB, A gross over-exaggeration if I may venture to say. I know that you detest anything that might be conceived as being left of the political spectrum and like to lump all of us that do not hold your views as left wing rabble rouses. I fall into the over 50 age group and it is enlightening for you to acknowledge that people of your and my age just walk into the polls in a stupor , ignoring the issues , and just voting Tory as we always have. I am sure that us Daily Mail, Daily Express and Daily Telegraph readers are not influenced by the papers' rabid right wing hate-drenched articles. Seriously though we do not all vote Conservative, because some of us even in our age of dotage have a social conscience and want to see others benefit from the wealth that is being created in this country, rather than ending up in the hands of the few. Kind regards Dave
  5. 5 likes
    Way too much moaning in here tonight, it's the start of summer and its the uk..typically mixed weather ahead, plenty of variety..something for everyone.
  6. 5 likes
    OMG. Just had a downburst of some sort. Brief total white out (about 30 seconds), leaves flying around, large hail and frequent CGs. Incredible. Definitely falls under the heading of severe!!!
  7. 5 likes
    As far as temperatures are concerned, no complaints from me as the seasonal ( longer range ) models, GloSea5 etc must be indicating above average to very warm and even hot at times, especially further south so I'm happy with the latest update.
  8. 4 likes
    A good livestream overlooking London for us northerners missing out..
  9. 4 likes
    Current CO2 output per capita in the US is over twice that of China. Also, China doesn't get a free pass until the 30s, they've agreed to peak their emissions around 2030, which for such a rapidly growing economy will require a lot of effort between now and then. The Paris agreement is about limiting the damage from climate change, and helping less well off countries to develop renewable energy capacity is an element of that. Of course, if you don't think climate change is a problem, or isn't real or that it's a Chinese conspiracy - you may well doubt the motives behind it, or claim it's only about wealth redistribution. The US pulling out of the agreement puts them in the same category as Syria and Nicaragua. Syria of course has it's own major issues and Nicaragua thought the agreement wasn't enough!
  10. 3 likes
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    Been **ssing it down here. Very unusual to have puddles on my garden as soil very light and friable.
  12. 2 likes
    May dull throughout and showed zero empathy for the disabled woman . Corbyn good start , hit the buffers on Trident and took a while to recover but finished well. The Trident drama was saved somewhat by the girl in the audience who woke up the audience to the reality of using it. I doubt that will get shown on the media clips. I suppose the question is which is the more immediate danger for the public lying on a hospital trolley for hours and dying of dehydration or getting nuked by the lunatic in North Korea!
  13. 2 likes
    Yes Frosty we could certainly do with the water tables topping up around here. The GFS advertises a wild start to the new working week, With possible gales for S/W coastal areas and the channel.
  14. 2 likes
    The more he antagonises the world when it comes to the enviroment the more people will put up a stronger fight. So his stupidity may actually have a silver lining imo.
  15. 2 likes
    Pint of Thatchers by any chance ?, pretty much semi retired myself , after a heart attack a few years ago. I've done my 41 years
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  19. 2 likes
    There seems to be a small breeding ground for storms just NE of Guildford, judging by the NW radar. While the first storm just passed to our north west in Surbiton, as I mentioned to @stainesbloke in the storm thread, a storm fired up directly in the tail of it which is now delivering very heavy rain. Others seem to be developing in the same area, albeit not electrified. They appear to have grown out of nothing. EDIT, think we just got a rumble of thunder.
  20. 2 likes
    Yes, front has now reached a line from the Wash to the Isle of Wight. But fingers crossed there's still a few hours of storm potential here in the far east of the Region. The storm moving NE just south of St. Albans is still active and some bright rain echoes developing and moving towards Cambridge, Chelmsford and Ipswich. I'm hoping they develop sufficiently for a downpour and rumble. Radar & Realtime Lightning 13.50
  21. 2 likes
    No chance of storms here but definitely a lot of convection which is refreshing to see
  22. 2 likes
    If people going to Glastonbury get any/or have any good weather photos, do share them please, we can use them in the weather blogs. wellies, puddles, rivers through tents, sunshine, crowds, flags, sunset, tents, stalls, the stage. Not close ups of individual people but just scenes with a weather tinge. That would be great. EMAIL [email protected] with Glasto Photo JO as subject ta
  23. 2 likes
    Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017 ISSUED 07:26 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 07:26 UTC Latest guidance continues to trend towards a reactivation of the frontal boundary this evening/overnight with showery outbreaks of rain developing over the Midlands into East Anglia - questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with this, but given some marginal elevated instability have extended the LOW threat westwards to cater for this potential. That aside, still some uncertainty as to how things will evolve this afternoon with regards to surface-based thunderstorm potential over East Anglia / SE England - early initiation (11-14z) is still signalled by some NWP output. Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. There is the potential for some elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and drift into SE England late Friday morning. Then, given enough insolation, combined with low-level convergence, a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating. Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time. There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas. A few scattered heavy showers will also be possible Friday afternoon across parts of Scotland, perhaps weakly-electrified given strong shear but marginal instability - hence an eastwards extension of the LOW threat level. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02
  24. 1 like
    Jealous, had 1.6mm today. Hoping we get a good soaking on Monday.
  25. 1 like
    May seemed the less wooden of the two, answering people by name and referring back to them, making eye contact, Corbyn much less personal and looked like he was making a speech rather than answering the question. Not sure where he gets the idea that you can dictate to your shifts to your employer though. Honestly thought he was going to walk off during the questioning over Trident, defence is definitely his Achilles heel.
  26. 1 like
    She came out fighting and got a massive help by being diverted onto mental health (which is in her manifesto) when she was just about to get a spanking on the NHS. No damage done. She'll probably get across the line as a result. Corbyn doesn't look 100% comfortable imo.
  27. 1 like
    Well done Donald Trump!!!
  28. 1 like
    Statistically, the warmest period of the year is the last week of July and first week of August.
  29. 1 like
  30. 1 like
    Seems like they sprung to life along the east coast just after you posted that. Just a few hundred miles too far to the east.
  31. 1 like
    McDonnell was on Sky this morning spouting on about Trump's decision on climate, as if this is TM's fault
  32. 1 like
    The storm earlier seemed quite small when it first started but as it moved off it seemed much larger and it was as it was moving off the thunder and lightning started . I was caught out by it I was returning from swimming with the kids. In just our t shirts . We took refuse under KFC so was watching it move off . I tried to upload the photos I took but the files are too big . The storm close to me seems to be moving away although for a while it looked like it was coming staight towards us .
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    No.....far too sweet....that is the kind of cider anyone outside the West Country drinks....not real (unless it is Thatchers Dry of course) Dry Blackthorn and it's the original version. Anyway i'm wasting post quota here
  35. 1 like
    Its just great now watching how the synopitcs are evolving from hour to hour. Our so called flabby low ( cyclostomous formation ) seems to be centred now over the Thames Estuary. Note how this has the effect of creating a slacking of the pressure gradient over the British Isles and retaining some potential energy in the atmosphere, especially SE parts. Wish I could have access to the mid-day East Sussex sounding to view any potential convectional energy. Still think the SE will stay in the warmth for much of tomorrow with added rain threat for Eastern coastal regions. Cooler maritime air mass now being deflected into NW France with warmth advecting into SE Britain as I type. C
  36. 1 like
    Definite lovely peel from SW. Seems to be heading this way
  37. 1 like
    Who can remember the stonker we got, last year...A day after the main threat had passed? EA can be a strange place for storms...
  38. 1 like
    Torrential storm here in Potters Bar. Got stuck in the pub.
  39. 1 like
    Was the heaviest rain I've seen for a long time! Sun back out now and feeling like Singapore lol
  40. 1 like
    This feels realistic, but hey what is realism in the political world! It shows that the Tories haven't really lost much ground in all honesty. I think there is a sizeable number out there who are still fixated on Brexit and trust May to deliver it - was chatting to an older relative of mine in her 70s yesterday, someone I would have expected to be a Labour voter, and her attitude to the election was all about Brexit. Interesting, because I felt yesterday Labour actually, for the first time, got a very clear message out on Brexit that demonstrated commitment to leaving but also an alternative approach to the Tories. If Labour had been banging that drum a few weeks ago, I wonder if they might have won some "leavers" over. A bit late now, I think. Is that figure for Labour on May 2nd correct? I could have sworn they were on 26/27% at the end of April. I think there will be a slight closing of the gap in the next couple of days, mainly due to Theresa May's "no show". But I honestly think next Monday's "Question Time" may also swing things a point or two. I know a few people who decided not to go for Ed Milliband last time after he denied the deficit being the Labour party's fault on QT. Theresa May absolutely must do well on Monday because 1 or 2 per cent will determine whether she gets a good enough majority to justify the election or whether she has the embarrassment of either having got nowhere or even dropping backwards further. Any guesses for next Thursday's headlines? (Surely a law should be passed banning political headlines on the day of an election!) EDIT: Wow, just seen Labour have hit the 40% mark in a poll. That is a sensational result for Jeremy Corbyn. Who on earth would have thought it - an out and out leftie clocking up 40% in an opinion poll. And a phone one at that!!! Must admit I'm a bit nervous about Corbyn being PM, but also hopeful that I might get this operation I've been waiting for for months now a little quicker
  41. 1 like
    Well the expected reaction to pressure so Trump pulls out. However it seems some states will stick to the agreement.
  42. 1 like
    Now we're talking and summer wants to get down to business on the latest GFS 18z. HP rising mid-June, if only that trough on the west could nudge out the way a little and we could be in 2006 territory. Shame this is just an outlier
  43. 1 like
    Yep, good to see agreement from the GFS and ECM 12z on the plume potential later next week
  44. 1 like
    Observed tonight just off the road a large sign for one of the political parties forty feet up some conifers.Quite original place to put it.
  45. 1 like
    A month of contrasts, and erratic in nature at times, we had a run of very chilly nights early on with frost, but very dry and very sunny, third week was wet, with a very wet day on 15 May, end of the month very warm, 2 successive days maxima at or above 25 degrees, 27 May delivered a couple of inches of rain, and very intense thunder and lightning. After what was looking like a very dry month, thanks to the two very wet days, totals ended up slightly above average. A more interesting May than many of recent years.
  46. 1 like
    The tornado alley storms are pretty much the same, but 100x the scale!! Hot and dry air from Mexico/Arizona and the Rockies plume up over the flat Midwest. But the very humid winds from the Gulf of Mexico make it moisture laden. If only the bay of biscay was as warm!!
  47. 1 like
    Decent day here, sunny and warm almost all day with a high of 20.9°C. Currently 18.2°C.
  48. 1 like
    Oh dear you just don't get it all. The financial situation of the worlds largest consumer economy 26.9% to China's 7.7% is justification alone for the US to shoulder more of the burden. Our impact on the worlds climate is proven,deniers are basically sticking their heads in the sand. Yes China has produced a vast amount of uncontrolled and unregulated output but their political system has recognised this and is acting. So what if it weakens the US financial position,we all have only one home to live on,it will take decades and decades to even make a dent but a start is needed. To moan and whinge about how it weakens the most powerful consumer without giving a different solution show's a lack of understanding i'm afraid. We have now are running out of chances and time to sort this. Trump could be the tipping point i'm sad to say.
  49. 1 like
    when i was a kid i used to make my own compilation cassettes by taping songs from the top 40 run down on a Sunday..you had to pretty quick with the buttons so you didn't get whoever was doing the rundown talking over the into or the back of the song...im sure i wasn't the only who did this
  50. 1 like
    @J10I've signed up to this forum just to say that I and all my friends obsess over your Glasto weather reports every year, thanks so, so much for doing them! We've all been coming here every day since you posted the above hoping for report #1 to appear!
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