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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/06/17 in all areas

  1. 18 points
    Alas, due to my absurd difficulties I've snapped three images from my video until I can get into line. First two are CGs (although I cannot fathom why the second pic, which was so close, only seems to have captured the bottom half of the bolt) while the third is in the midst of what I felt was a downburst.
  2. 14 points
    Alright, so now I've managed to sort the pictures out properly (was posting from my phone earlier!) please find the full set from this afternoons 3.30pm storm over Bexley... So I knew something was going to happen on the way home when I could see the shape and size of this thing, it looked proper Usa style. I stopped on some backstreets I know with the most unobscured view I could get (difficult in the suburbs I know). Panoramic shot... Decided to quickly head home but just had to stop on the main road I was on and take a picture of the storm as it was looking meaner by the second This was the view to the north... Pulled up. Wait whats that to the north east?... Cheeky scud? Then turned to my south and saw scud condensing out on thin air and saw it was startng to rotate. I've seen enough storm chasing videos to know what that meant and quickly got into position as the scud tightend into a rope and a beautiful, but short lived (20-30 seconds at the most) multi vortex funnel cloud formed right infront of me... After I got in the thunder and lighting started and lated a good 30 mins. Very loud. Seems to have headed off to Essex now. I thought today was going to be a total bust but I'm very happy to be proved wrong. Hope others have just as much luck, These storms are wild.
  3. 7 points
    All things come to those who moan apparently ... Unbelievable. Can also hear distant thunder. Happy now. Whoever said moaning was a waste of time?
  4. 7 points
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-06-02 06:50:23 Valid: 02/06/2017 06z to 03/06/2017 06z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE/ STORM FORECAST - 02 JUNE 2017 Synopsis Upper longwave trough over the North Atlantic advances eastward towards the UK on Friday, a cold front lying from SE Scotland down across NW England, Wales and far SW England at breakfast time pushes slowly east today, to lie appox. Humber to Dorset by midnight tonight. A warm and humid airmass across SE UK ahead of the cold front will become unstable this afternoon with surface heating, supporting development of a few thunderstorms. … SE ENGLAND and EAST ANGLIA … Warm/moist flow off the near continent across the above areas ahead of the cold front to the west will become increasingly unstable into this afternoon, as temperatures reach the high 20s centigrade in sunshine while low to mid-level lapse rates steepen as colder air arrives aloft with eastward advance of upper trough. GFS develops 300-600 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across the above areas, weak surface convergence and increasing large scale ascent as upper trough approaches from the west should be sufficient to allow a few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon during peak heating. 30-40 knot 500mb SWly flow may organise storms into a few linear clusters capable of producing localised high rainfall rates (20-30mm per/hour) which may lead to localised flooding. Directional shear will be fairly weak though, so storms will tend to produce only small hail and locally gusty winds. But have included a MARGINAL risk of severe weather for the risk of flooding/treacherous driving conditions.
  5. 7 points
    Just wait, we'll be back to the wrist-slashing soon enough!
  6. 6 points
    Beautiful convection over C London just now. Alas, working from home today. Note the pileus cap in the second and third photos. They're so close to me but no cigar, unless that detonating line shimmies east.
  7. 6 points
    This whole thing is just so sad, I can't even begin. When even states that were heavy on industry say they are still going to abide by the agreement, that should tell you, you made a terrible decision. But I can't see this narcissistic oaf doing anything other than throwing a tantrum.
  8. 5 points
    Way too much moaning in here tonight, it's the start of summer and its the uk..typically mixed weather ahead, plenty of variety..something for everyone.
  9. 5 points
    Good grief, what utter nonsense. As for the models, unsettled for the foreseeable, more so for NW - with the best of conditions in the S and SE!
  10. 5 points
    OMG. Just had a downburst of some sort. Brief total white out (about 30 seconds), leaves flying around, large hail and frequent CGs. Incredible. Definitely falls under the heading of severe!!!
  11. 5 points
    Some nice convection going up to north of where I am now in Beckenham, SE London
  12. 5 points
    As far as temperatures are concerned, no complaints from me as the seasonal ( longer range ) models, GloSea5 etc must be indicating above average to very warm and even hot at times, especially further south so I'm happy with the latest update.
  13. 5 points
    When large swathes of your region has a chance of a storm, but you do not.
  14. 5 points
    As far as I see it, ECM and GFS are in the process one again of correcting downward a kick in the jet stream and so adjusting the mean ridge position west toward the UK and W. Europe having initially placed it almost in W. Asia. For some reason whatever causes these errors in those two models seems to affect GEM less. Things when get very interesting as an MJO pulse combines with an unusually 'wiggly jet' as part of a wavenumber-5 pattern that typically produces extremes of weather toward the western extent of ridges - which is where we might well be.
  15. 4 points
    This really has gone way over your head hasn't it? Your statement of the theory and logic behind the agreement is just a wealth distribution?! That say's it all really. India and China will increase their emissions for the next decade,fact. They have to feed themselves,they have to live. Their starting line is way behind the US but at least they have started. Your statement "The idea that the US needs to do more so that other countries can do less or even nothing is ridiculous." now that is ridiculous. Look who consumes all those products manufactured by these countries. Trump is just playing the protectionist card to both boast his appalling term as president and deflect the issue that he is the worst US president in history. Please name one who's record in the first 100 days was worst?
  16. 4 points
    A good livestream overlooking London for us northerners missing out..
  17. 4 points
    Following my post just how - this is encouraging from UKMO as the big trough off the U.S. is clearly slower with a more amplified jet stream ahead of it. UKMO was second only to GEM in spotting the more settled outcome for last week. GEM is now rather explosive-looking for Thu though, and barely gets the next Euro ridge set up before breaking it down: ...but again, this is all far enough out in time for much adjustment to potentially occur
  18. 4 points
    Hello I was deliberately unspecific there; extreme heat, thunderstorms/excessive rainfall and strong winds are all possible outcomes with such a setup. Drought would however require the pattern to adjust further west than looks likely at this time and even then it would take many weeks of persistently dry, often hot weather to produce one. This morning I am shocked at the sheer strength of the low being modelled to cross the Atlantic days 8-10. This currently looks to be an over 2-sigma event i.e. more than two standard deviations outside of the 'norm' i.e. very unusual indeed. Such large and powerful storms have the ability to shift the longwave pattern against the backgroud signals which is worrying as that typically means eastward of what would otherwise occur. The remnants of the B-name Atlantic tropical cyclone in Aug 2014 had this effect and led to a cool showery month instead of a warm, sometimes thundery one as was looking likely to be the case otherwise. I sincerely hope the packet of energy that fuels this major storm does not manage to journey across so smoothly and instead gets involved with some developments along the way that lower the remaining potential energy for LP development. Ireland's tree population would not fare too well if this came to pass - good thing it's still over a week away with plenty of time for changes!
  19. 4 points
    Wow apparently Ipsos Mori show a 10 point drop in the Con lead! From 15 points down to 5 points. Still waiting for the full tables. Posted in the wrong thread but I'm sure this poll will go down well in here. Still waiting for the official confirmation , I read this on twitter but the source is normally reliable .
  20. 4 points
    Current CO2 output per capita in the US is over twice that of China. Also, China doesn't get a free pass until the 30s, they've agreed to peak their emissions around 2030, which for such a rapidly growing economy will require a lot of effort between now and then. The Paris agreement is about limiting the damage from climate change, and helping less well off countries to develop renewable energy capacity is an element of that. Of course, if you don't think climate change is a problem, or isn't real or that it's a Chinese conspiracy - you may well doubt the motives behind it, or claim it's only about wealth redistribution. The US pulling out of the agreement puts them in the same category as Syria and Nicaragua. Syria of course has it's own major issues and Nicaragua thought the agreement wasn't enough!
  21. 3 points
    Not a bad performance here - managed 8mm of rain in a one hour spell that included several lightning strikes. So mustn't grumble. Made even better by being sat in my local supping Adnams Southwold bitter watching the High Street turn into a river! I was going to post that it's all over as the action moves into the North Sea, but then blow me, another couple of lightning strikes showing up this evening near Harlow! Radar 19.20 Lightning 19.30
  22. 3 points
  23. 3 points
  24. 3 points
    Been **ssing it down here. Very unusual to have puddles on my garden as soil very light and friable.
  25. 3 points
    If Dugdale had an ounce of sense she'd be distancing Scottish Labour from the Tories at a rate of knots and pushing for an anti-Tory vote in Scotland. If Scotland returned 0 instead of the 7 Tories Britain Elects predicts it could yet prove critical. Pull Corbyn towards staying in the EEA as the most straight forward least damaging solution to Brexit and if there isn't a Tory majority then there is a chance for Labour to avert an IndyRef in the short term not through blocking but through cooperation that leads to a compromise that is close to squaring the circle of how the home nations voted last June as we can get.
  26. 3 points
    the first pic is the hole above my house and the other, facing south and north.
  27. 3 points
    The latest UKMO update seems reasonably confident that the end of next week to turn warm for most and even very warm for the Southeast with the Northwest getting the more unsettled /rainy conditions, but even here temps well up to average. C
  28. 3 points
    Clearly, the snake-oil salesmen have 'won' a victory of sorts; however, in the long-term/greater-scheme-of-things, I doubt it'll make all much difference: with the costs of fossil-fuels set to go 'through the roof', Trump's anti-Climate Change rhetoric will be as vacuous as all his previous donations to human 'wisdom' have been... Only an idiot would exchange solar power for a dirty, smelly and inefficient coal-fired boiler? Though, with the current, seemingly endless appetite for pseudo-/anti-science, we are all being forced to endure, there are demonstrably a fair few idiots out there? Indeed, judging by what's currently happening, both here and abroad, 'phone-an-idiot' might be seen as the fastest way to one making one's first million...
  29. 3 points
    Looking at the morning output, the westward correction takes the ridge more into the mid-Atlantic (the fabled Scenario B). Fans of heat wanted the ridge just to the east of the British Isles (Scenario A) being propped up from the mid-Atlantic trough. That has happened but the trough has now started to move eastward again dragging everything along with it and the eastward correction does us no favours leaving us under the trough. FWIW (and that's not much), I do think the next correction will see us benefitting from the ridge but that may be late June/early July and that's often an optimum time for high temperatures if the synoptics are right and we can import some hot air from points south.
  30. 3 points
    Maybe was written by RD - she seems to be into everything else! Styx I've never seen Alex Salmond struggling for answers in his life. Struggling to get a word in edgeways with a ratty interviewer yes, but to give answers to their questions, no.
  31. 2 points
    Not cold though, and the lows, on the ECM at least, are not currently forecast to be that deep - more like 990mb (small difference I know). Some seriously warm and moist (gotta love that word!) air gets churned up our way through next week. Could be another round of beefy convectiveness for some
  32. 2 points
    Yes Frosty we could certainly do with the water tables topping up around here. The GFS advertises a wild start to the new working week, With possible gales for S/W coastal areas and the channel.
  33. 2 points
  34. 2 points
  35. 2 points
    I was wrong when said subsiding - on storm no. 4 or 5 now - and this last one is very good
  36. 2 points
    The more he antagonises the world when it comes to the enviroment the more people will put up a stronger fight. So his stupidity may actually have a silver lining imo.
  37. 2 points
    I'd say anywhere from there down to Aldeborough would be the preferred area.
  38. 2 points
  39. 2 points
  40. 2 points
    Try our very own Netweather radar - got the option of turning on/off lightning too! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
  41. 2 points
    There's a huge cell rapidly building to the E-SE of here. Looks like a proper thunderstorm! Very warm and almost stifling here in the sunshine.
  42. 2 points
    Sun out here again, feeling tropical. Lots of convection going on all around.
  43. 2 points
    Yes, front has now reached a line from the Wash to the Isle of Wight. But fingers crossed there's still a few hours of storm potential here in the far east of the Region. The storm moving NE just south of St. Albans is still active and some bright rain echoes developing and moving towards Cambridge, Chelmsford and Ipswich. I'm hoping they develop sufficiently for a downpour and rumble. Radar & Realtime Lightning 13.50
  44. 2 points
    No chance of storms here but definitely a lot of convection which is refreshing to see
  45. 2 points
    Yes Summer Sun, the difference still there out to 168t as shown on the extended N. Atlantic chart from the UKMO. A continental drift shown on that one. The same time chart from ECM shows a maritime flow for most. Take your pick, I know which one I prefer ! C
  46. 2 points
    UKMO and ECM are a bit different this morning at t144
  47. 2 points
    Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017 ISSUED 07:26 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 07:26 UTC Latest guidance continues to trend towards a reactivation of the frontal boundary this evening/overnight with showery outbreaks of rain developing over the Midlands into East Anglia - questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with this, but given some marginal elevated instability have extended the LOW threat westwards to cater for this potential. That aside, still some uncertainty as to how things will evolve this afternoon with regards to surface-based thunderstorm potential over East Anglia / SE England - early initiation (11-14z) is still signalled by some NWP output. Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. There is the potential for some elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and drift into SE England late Friday morning. Then, given enough insolation, combined with low-level convergence, a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating. Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time. There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas. A few scattered heavy showers will also be possible Friday afternoon across parts of Scotland, perhaps weakly-electrified given strong shear but marginal instability - hence an eastwards extension of the LOW threat level. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02
  48. 2 points
    From looking around the various forecasting sites it looks like a chance for a few thunderstorms in the far east today - East Anglia and SE England. All the forecasts I have seen have the speed the cold front moves east as a possible spoiler as if it moves through quicker than expected then it pushes the storm risk east with it. Some forecasts show the cold front itself pepping up overnight but I am unsure how thundery any rain on the front would be by this stage as all the CAPE is pushed eastwards by the time it reaches the south-east. The exception to this is the NMM which keeps the CAPE hanging around long enough for the cold front to move into the area of CAPE this evening, this would likely yield a line of thunderstorms through the evening. It is just one model though, the GFS pushes the CAPE east and out of the UK much faster. I am unable to see the WRF as the site I use seems to be down. If I was in East Anglia or the far SE then I would be considering the risk of a few storms this afternoon and then a very slim risk of some more later this evening. Where storms do occur they could contain lightning, maybe fairly frequent and gusty winds. Hail seems less likely, but torrential rain could occur in any storms giving a risk of flooding. Anywhere west of a line from the Wash to Brighton seems to far west today (unfortunately).
  49. 2 points
  50. 2 points
    Of course it makes sense. As BFTV said, CO2 emissions are over twice per capita in the USA than China. Yes, they have made some reductions but surely you understand that China is in a vastly different position development and demographics wise and can't just create an instant abrupt change in their CO2 trend. Of course, China should reduce emissions as soon as possible too. Maybe there's flaws but in this situation no deal is definitely not better than one with limitations. The UK has been more successful than the USA in making CO2 reductions and also have a large national debt, so I assume we should also withdraw, along with all the other countries in this situation? Also those numbers seem odd given the agreement to try and limit things to 'well under 2C'.. is that assuming that (in contrary to what you said) that NO ONE makes any other effort than initial statements/already confirmed policies or something? Given the significant reductions by some countries (including the US as you mention) without such an agreement in place, surely there is potential for a much greater reduction than those figures? Yes, I'm not sure how realistic the 2C target is but I don't think that because it has flaws the US should just withdraw and do nothing. Your last bit is approaching conspiracy theory level..they did a very good job of convincing practically every country on Earth then. Sorry but I can't see your logic. Do you actually think climate change is an issue? I agree that legally binding would be better and there's much further to go, but with Trump's approach, we won't be going anywhere (except backwards perhaps).
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