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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/06/17 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-06-02 06:50:23 Valid: 02/06/2017 06z to 03/06/2017 06z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE/ STORM FORECAST - 02 JUNE 2017 Synopsis Upper longwave trough over the North Atlantic advances eastward towards the UK on Friday, a cold front lying from SE Scotland down across NW England, Wales and far SW England at breakfast time pushes slowly east today, to lie appox. Humber to Dorset by midnight tonight. A warm and humid airmass across SE UK ahead of the cold front will become unstable this afternoon with surface heating, supporting development of a few thunderstorms. … SE ENGLAND and EAST ANGLIA … Warm/moist flow off the near continent across the above areas ahead of the cold front to the west will become increasingly unstable into this afternoon, as temperatures reach the high 20s centigrade in sunshine while low to mid-level lapse rates steepen as colder air arrives aloft with eastward advance of upper trough. GFS develops 300-600 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across the above areas, weak surface convergence and increasing large scale ascent as upper trough approaches from the west should be sufficient to allow a few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon during peak heating. 30-40 knot 500mb SWly flow may organise storms into a few linear clusters capable of producing localised high rainfall rates (20-30mm per/hour) which may lead to localised flooding. Directional shear will be fairly weak though, so storms will tend to produce only small hail and locally gusty winds. But have included a MARGINAL risk of severe weather for the risk of flooding/treacherous driving conditions.
  2. 7 points
    Just wait, we'll be back to the wrist-slashing soon enough!
  3. 5 points
    Some nice convection going up to north of where I am now in Beckenham, SE London
  4. 5 points
    As far as temperatures are concerned, no complaints from me as the seasonal ( longer range ) models, GloSea5 etc must be indicating above average to very warm and even hot at times, especially further south so I'm happy with the latest update.
  5. 5 points
    When large swathes of your region has a chance of a storm, but you do not.
  6. 5 points
    As far as I see it, ECM and GFS are in the process one again of correcting downward a kick in the jet stream and so adjusting the mean ridge position west toward the UK and W. Europe having initially placed it almost in W. Asia. For some reason whatever causes these errors in those two models seems to affect GEM less. Things when get very interesting as an MJO pulse combines with an unusually 'wiggly jet' as part of a wavenumber-5 pattern that typically produces extremes of weather toward the western extent of ridges - which is where we might well be.
  7. 4 points
    Following my post just how - this is encouraging from UKMO as the big trough off the U.S. is clearly slower with a more amplified jet stream ahead of it. UKMO was second only to GEM in spotting the more settled outcome for last week. GEM is now rather explosive-looking for Thu though, and barely gets the next Euro ridge set up before breaking it down: ...but again, this is all far enough out in time for much adjustment to potentially occur
  8. 4 points
    Hello I was deliberately unspecific there; extreme heat, thunderstorms/excessive rainfall and strong winds are all possible outcomes with such a setup. Drought would however require the pattern to adjust further west than looks likely at this time and even then it would take many weeks of persistently dry, often hot weather to produce one. This morning I am shocked at the sheer strength of the low being modelled to cross the Atlantic days 8-10. This currently looks to be an over 2-sigma event i.e. more than two standard deviations outside of the 'norm' i.e. very unusual indeed. Such large and powerful storms have the ability to shift the longwave pattern against the backgroud signals which is worrying as that typically means eastward of what would otherwise occur. The remnants of the B-name Atlantic tropical cyclone in Aug 2014 had this effect and led to a cool showery month instead of a warm, sometimes thundery one as was looking likely to be the case otherwise. I sincerely hope the packet of energy that fuels this major storm does not manage to journey across so smoothly and instead gets involved with some developments along the way that lower the remaining potential energy for LP development. Ireland's tree population would not fare too well if this came to pass - good thing it's still over a week away with plenty of time for changes!
  9. 3 points
    the first pic is the hole above my house and the other, facing south and north.
  10. 3 points
    The latest UKMO update seems reasonably confident that the end of next week to turn warm for most and even very warm for the Southeast with the Northwest getting the more unsettled /rainy conditions, but even here temps well up to average. C
  11. 3 points
    Looking at the morning output, the westward correction takes the ridge more into the mid-Atlantic (the fabled Scenario B). Fans of heat wanted the ridge just to the east of the British Isles (Scenario A) being propped up from the mid-Atlantic trough. That has happened but the trough has now started to move eastward again dragging everything along with it and the eastward correction does us no favours leaving us under the trough. FWIW (and that's not much), I do think the next correction will see us benefitting from the ridge but that may be late June/early July and that's often an optimum time for high temperatures if the synoptics are right and we can import some hot air from points south.
  12. 2 points
    Good evening all. A little late but here is a new thread for the start of the Summer Quarter. The 12z models all show a similar theme during the next week or so with a move towards a rather changeable south westerly pattern. A few snapshots of the 12z ECM for the next week shows an ongoing presence of low pressure to the north and west with occasional ridging further south from a somewhat suppressed Azores high. so as often the case in this pattern the warmest and brightest conditions will favour locations further south and east.Some showers or rain likely for many of us at times. OK then please continue discussions below.
  13. 2 points
    Try our very own Netweather radar - got the option of turning on/off lightning too! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
  14. 2 points
    There's a huge cell rapidly building to the E-SE of here. Looks like a proper thunderstorm! Very warm and almost stifling here in the sunshine.
  15. 2 points
    It now looks like the formation of heat low over Paris Basin. This will move into the North Sea ahead of the cold front pushing into Central Eastern England now. As I mentioned on Tuesday a delay of this clearance to fresher air mass will now be delayed until later tomorrow in the SE . The cyclostomous development ( flabby low ) will open the isobars across Eastern and Central areas of the England with some thundery rain down East Coastal Regions for a while longer before clearance to maritime airmass takes over. Looking to Monday a storm brewing heralding a windy start to next week before pressure rises again in the south bring warmth to end the week. Good weather viewing to be had . A bit for everyone. C
  16. 2 points
    Sun out here again, feeling tropical. Lots of convection going on all around.
  17. 2 points
    Yes, front has now reached a line from the Wash to the Isle of Wight. But fingers crossed there's still a few hours of storm potential here in the far east of the Region. The storm moving NE just south of St. Albans is still active and some bright rain echoes developing and moving towards Cambridge, Chelmsford and Ipswich. I'm hoping they develop sufficiently for a downpour and rumble. Radar & Realtime Lightning 13.50
  18. 2 points
    No chance of storms here but definitely a lot of convection which is refreshing to see
  19. 2 points
  20. 2 points
    Just flew in from Austin, TX. 19c at 3000ft and a little lumpy with tops up to 6-7000ft with bases at 5000ft+
  21. 2 points
    Yes Summer Sun, the difference still there out to 168t as shown on the extended N. Atlantic chart from the UKMO. A continental drift shown on that one. The same time chart from ECM shows a maritime flow for most. Take your pick, I know which one I prefer ! C
  22. 2 points
    UKMO and ECM are a bit different this morning at t144
  23. 2 points
    Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017 ISSUED 07:26 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 07:26 UTC Latest guidance continues to trend towards a reactivation of the frontal boundary this evening/overnight with showery outbreaks of rain developing over the Midlands into East Anglia - questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with this, but given some marginal elevated instability have extended the LOW threat westwards to cater for this potential. That aside, still some uncertainty as to how things will evolve this afternoon with regards to surface-based thunderstorm potential over East Anglia / SE England - early initiation (11-14z) is still signalled by some NWP output. Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. There is the potential for some elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and drift into SE England late Friday morning. Then, given enough insolation, combined with low-level convergence, a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating. Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time. There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas. A few scattered heavy showers will also be possible Friday afternoon across parts of Scotland, perhaps weakly-electrified given strong shear but marginal instability - hence an eastwards extension of the LOW threat level. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02
  24. 2 points
    From looking around the various forecasting sites it looks like a chance for a few thunderstorms in the far east today - East Anglia and SE England. All the forecasts I have seen have the speed the cold front moves east as a possible spoiler as if it moves through quicker than expected then it pushes the storm risk east with it. Some forecasts show the cold front itself pepping up overnight but I am unsure how thundery any rain on the front would be by this stage as all the CAPE is pushed eastwards by the time it reaches the south-east. The exception to this is the NMM which keeps the CAPE hanging around long enough for the cold front to move into the area of CAPE this evening, this would likely yield a line of thunderstorms through the evening. It is just one model though, the GFS pushes the CAPE east and out of the UK much faster. I am unable to see the WRF as the site I use seems to be down. If I was in East Anglia or the far SE then I would be considering the risk of a few storms this afternoon and then a very slim risk of some more later this evening. Where storms do occur they could contain lightning, maybe fairly frequent and gusty winds. Hail seems less likely, but torrential rain could occur in any storms giving a risk of flooding. Anywhere west of a line from the Wash to Brighton seems to far west today (unfortunately).
  25. 2 points
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