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Enjoy the summery conditions during the next few days across southern uk as we scoop continental warm air up from southern europe with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius. There could even be some T-Storms across the s / se on Friday.

The ECM weeklies show week 2 having below average temps with week 3 showing no strong signal Precipitation wise week 2 looks wetter than average for many especially so in the NW - week 3 sees more of a split developing wetter in Scotland but drier for most of England and Wales Week 4 (19th to 25) has warmer and drier weather returning

Why am I getting a sense of déjà vu reading the posts tonight? Happens every month, people having knee-jerk reactions. Let's at least begin June before we start writing it off.

Models showing typical early summer fayre for the foreseeable, a classic euro ridge/atlantic trough scenario, but unlike recent weeks, some real oomph to the jetstream, which will result in the trough having greater influence than ridging, and consequently a rather unsettled spell to start summer, significant frontal rainfall in NW parts most probably, warmest driest conditions reserved for the SE, but temperatures overall not to far off the early June average. A case of a return of the westerlies.. maybe... Tomorrow will bring another smashing Spring day, in what has been a rather excellent Spring overall for mild/warm dry sunny weather.. following on from a very benign autumn and winter, perhaps too much to ask for such conditions to reign supreme through summer, but summer is a long season, and the weather of early-mid June rarely sets the tone for the summer as a whole, its late June when the signals become clearer.

Yup. Remember people posting horror charts earlier in the month, showing low pressure over the UK. They never came to fruition.

I'm back from an even longer winter hibernation than usual -- I've not been on any Model Output discussion here since October. As ever, uncertainty (and some early June unsettledness) seems to be prevailing in very recent output. For now. I agree with opponents of writing off the whole of June though. Not needed, and definitely not wise meteorologically. I think I said the same last summer though, so I'll try my best to confine myself to actual output discussion now,. Thanks for all charts posted and for insights -- people really know their synoptic stuff here.

Longer range, the CFS seems to be pushing the height anomaly further and further N for July, what was once a strip of mid latitude heights which lay across and to the S of UK has now pushed further N to stretch into S Greenland As for closer to the present time, the model goes for an unsettled June, though perhaps warm at times too

Stunning evening sat in the garden under clear sky with wispy pale pink Cirrus and a half moon, 18.2c after 22.0c max.

You're right tbh an unsettled spell in any month of the year is normal albeit colder in winter warmer in summer That's the beautiful British weather

Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017 ISSUED 18:47 UTC Wed 31 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Given enough insolation during Friday, combined with low-level convergence, then a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty at present - in general, should the front arrive as quickly as suggested by some NWP guidance, then the risk will be greatly reduced, a slower arrival would result in a bigger area at risk. For now, a SLGT has been issued for those areas with the best potential, but this may be tweaked as confidence improves nearer the event. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers later in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

Caught some convection late afternoon whilst going out for a walk.

I'm not sure it's uncertain at all. Pretty good agreement for an unsettled couple of weeks. It's only the finer detail of how far East the various troughs can get there by determining the likely severity of the unsettled period. June as a whole does not look pleasant at all.

That's ok, this thread dated 1st June onwards has been started on 31st May lol. Those of us in CS England need to hope the Cold Front gets held as far West as possible on Friday, otherwise a very warm/humid morning will just become a dull, wet afternoon.

BBC showing thunder storms possible for us in the far south and east tomorrow evening, hope they make it across the channel again! Was truly epic on the 29th, never seen lightning anything like it in all my 36 years! I was going to walk ove the beach that night but I bottle it.. Being female and on my own with only 5% battery at 1am in the morning I didn't want to chance it. Feel Gutted I didn't just go over the beach looking back at how epic it must have looked without the visual obstructions blocking my view of the horizon.. Was still awesome from my front door step but bet it was mega watching it unobscured all the way across channel . Apparently was 190000 strike rate in a 72hr period! And was the largest storm on the planet at that moment in time! Just amazing.

To be fair the massive storm we had here a few days back was the first one since 2014! Very often northern France less than 25 miles across the water from me here has super epic storms nearly weekly (daily lately) this time of year and we don't even see a pep. So I do feel your pain!

Morning all June is nearly upon us so will it flame or fizzle ? A fairly non-descript start in London Town today. Looking to the early hours of Saturday June 10th and where might we be ? Starting with the GEM 00Z at T+240: A fascinating evolution from GEM this morning and a move away from what we've seen of late. The trough slowly extends across the British Isles over the weekend and into early next week but the next LP out of North America slows down allowing heights to build but mainly from the north rather than the SW. The LP than fills and swings SE toward Iberia and we end with a strong HP ridge to the north from centres over Greenland and just north of the Faeroes and the British Isles in a warm ESE'ly flow. Probably plenty of sea fog to eastern and southern coasts but inland areas and particularly those in the north and west would be enjoying fine and warm weather. ECM 00Z at T+240: A very different evolution but one which hinges on the movement of next week's LP from North America. While the GEM model slows the LP down and eventually disrupts it, ECM is more progressive and incorporates the second LP into the remnants of the first keeping the British Isles unsettled and cool with rain or showers for most. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: It's a recognisable blend of GEM and ECM in that the second LP comes in and stalls close to the British Isles. The ridge is thrown slightly to the east and while the south east fares well it may be too far away for western areas and as the trough fills and moves in the unsettled conditions become more widespread. Further into FI and strong HP builds first to the SW and then to the NE leaving the British Isles in a warm but increasingly unstable ESE'ly flow. The Control gets very strange disrupting the LP to the south then sending it back north or north west. HP builds briefly over Scandinavia but loses out to the thundery trough from France leaving the British Isles in a warm or very warm unstable thundery set up by mid month. Looking at the 00Z GEFS at T+240 and it's a mixed bag of options. It's perhaps symptomatic of a lack of a clear signal. To conclude, some residual warmth into the coming weekend but the LP which has sat out to the west and allowed the ridging and the warmth will finally move east across the British Is;les through the weekend and into the early part of next week. From there, it all depends on what happens to the next LP coming out of North Atlantic and GEM, ECM and GFS all offer different solutions with consequences down the line which either leave us very unsettled or potentially in a very warm and unstable thundery "plume". It's hard to call at this time and as ever more runs are needed.

Nice one SupaCell! - Here's mine One of the most charged storms I've ever witnessed, a true Thunderstorm event with everything but a tornado lol. There was countless strikes far worse than these below and one even struck a house nearby

Much fresher tonight a bit breezy and 11c.See the top of Cairngormis almost at freezing point. Anyhow the amount of growth we had recently shoud sustain the cattle for a week or two if it stays cooler

We're on course for the warmest spring on record here with a mean of 10.4C, beating the previous highest of 10.3C set in 2011. March was the warmest I've ever recorded and May is set to follow in its footsteps, comfortably beating 1992 and 1999. Worth noting that out of the ten springs with temps 1.0C above average or more, only one (2003) has seen a summer follow with a mean of 16.2C or more. All but two were wetter than average aswell.

My, really busy in here this morning! I suspect the charts are not showing heat and storms, is that why? For sure the 3 anomaly charts, see below, are not, it looks a rather unsettled spell for a week or two. Unless of course the charts decide otherwise, seems a bit unlikely to me for at least a week anyway. At least I don't now have to water the garden every day. Every cloud has a silver lining as the saying goes. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html slight signal for ridging over Europe on the GFS http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Do they? Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and not match its implication. There isn't any further comment needed really.... So, lets look at such a recent pear-shaped extract from almost a week back. A good illustration of why these summary posts can be so useful - for continuity purposes update and review of progress ....as well of course also any departures from expectations.... They are easily found in anyone's profile... Notwithstanding the obvious indicated ascendancy of the trough into week 2 as expected (first full week of June aka next week) the broad-scale pattern is not any departure from that outlined in that previous post extract - and there remains plenty of inertia within an embedding seasonal default Atlantic trough and downstream ridge signature to re-amplify the Euro ridge and adjust the warm air advection profile back towards at least some of us With geographical re-assignment of the UK an unfortunate human impossibility option to change things, whatever the knowledge and standing of the weather NWP observer, this type of summer pattern always favours southern and eastern UK more than north western most parts of the UK. Still, much better to be starting the season with the default tipped towards a trough/ridge profile than a ridge/trough one. It is, after all, very hard to achieve warm air advection and any plume scenario whatsoever around the top of an Atlantic ridge into an upper cold pool trough... Whilst the more changeable and mobile outlook arrives from the coming weekend, but only after some further very pleasant and warm weather this coming week, its been notable already in the last couple of weeks, how often operational models have attempted to raise pressure over the pole and towards Greenland and force the jet south beyond the t144 period - but then adjust back to the Atlantic trough/downstream ridge profile. Plenty has already been said about this previously in terms of the default summer pattern Some will continue to angst over (seemingly) every face value operational suite no doubt as I understand completely that it suits the purpose. ECM 12z unfolds already. I am equally sure further outputs will suggest more horrid "write offs" of *insert period of choice* In the days ahead and when time permits I would continue to watch on tropical forcing upstream to start to adjust the pendulum back towards downstream amplification of the Euro ridge and renewed warmth from the continent. Irrespective of what it shows, in that regard it will be interesting to see the updated ECM weeklies from week 3 which suggested support for that on Friday. For anyone who resolutely sticks to the dark side though, week 3 takes us from about mid June. If a happy pill doesn't materialise, or the recommendations made here simply doesn't wash, then someone with a crystal ball who can make to measure/manage expectations to any personal wish list will definitely help. Or maybe the model moods threads is the more suitable place to mutter darkness of the models (or apparent soothsayers) instead.

A brand new thread for the upcoming summer. What will it bring, I am hoping for plenty of hot sunshine and thundery plumes. Old thread is here: If you feel that mother nature is dealing you a cruel blow and you are not getting the storms you desire then the No Storms Club is always open. Please feel free to drop in and moan, I am currently a member myself as there has not yet been a storm over my house this year. Hopefully this club will be empty as this summer progresses Next opportunity for anything convective will probably be Friday, although this is currently on a knife edge as it could get shunted east to the point where the plume completely misses the UK. After that we still have the chance with an unstable showery set up for the weekend.

Also next week sees potential too

To be honest Quentin , I have not got a clue where it is I just took a stab in the dark so to speak Tom

Well its humid and still and a bit overcast here in South East Kent today. Intermittent sunshine. I've ust seen on BBC weather it looks like we could be seeing some more stormy weather again tomorrow evening. Looks likely to be very far east and may not even make it over the channel but its worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Paul put some nice photos from yesterday on FB don't think he would mind me sharing it with the class I think it was somewhere on the Kansas border Tom

Up at 5am sleep not happening and brain kicked into gear. So hot black coffee is being sipped. However, when I went to be we were staying here in Irving for another night so not a huge lot of driving to do today and so it shouldn't be a challenging day - famous last words. Yesterday evening we walked down to a sports bar down the road Aspen Creek - I had salad with my starter which I decided to have for my main course. There was so much salad it came in a wheel barrow. The starter that I have for my main course was quasidelias or something like that - I had to bring quarter of it away because it was a huge plate full. After a brief walk around Walmart looking for a sim card for my phone and for the others to get a few items we came back to the motel. Not sure where the team ended up. I might check later. Today is change over day so there will be a lot of shuttling and room changing as tour starts to kick in My room is ok I turn the AC off but regretted it when I woke up boiling hot. I have now also be reunited with my reading glasses. It was pretty hard filling in the form on the plane. I think I got it right but with out glasses it wasn't easy.. Customs man didn't even look at it. Hopefully photo of Newfoundland from the plane Tom

Yep, this coming friday evening could have some potential. Lets wait and see nearer the time if we get anything. I'm hoping for another mcs but I don't know if thats asking too much at this stage? Would be nice just to see some frequent lightning with varied colours (love the different colours you get, especially orange and pink) instead of the odd rumble and flash but I'll take what I can get.

Another spotless day ,38 days so far this yr. 70 days since june 1st 2016, so almost 20% out of the last 365 days.

Stunning grab! There is something awe inspiring and thrilling about MCS'. I just hope we get more of them this year. I can't think of two consecutive days of such large, electrified storms. Does anyone know the combined lightning totals for Saturday and Sunday?

That's 9 miles! Amazing

I watched the livecam that night from our hotel abroad and I thought my phone was playing up. That truly is EPIC!

Still haven't got round to sorting out some of my footage from Sunday's MCS. In addition to the great footage posted on here, I've been enjoying some of the footage from the SW's pasting on Saturday. Watch this as one example...

Ok so I'm at best western, this place is lovely, massive room, nice and fresh, a million times better than my motel in Los Angeles! Be good to meet everyone soon! I'll keep checking this for replies!

I've been to a wedding in Priory Hall - a truely wonderful venue. Full of olde worlde character and lovely grounds! Subject to change at this range, but here's the current forecast from the Arpege model for next Saturday. Not looking too bad with any showers staying out to the west of the UK and temps climbing from 19C at noon to 22C by 17.00. That wouldn't be too bad! 12.00 14.00

I was just having a look at some of my IP camera's footage, and found this:

The Met Office Fax chart below has the cold front posed to push through the British Isles over the coming weekend to replace a couple of nice fairly warm days to end the working week with rather more unsettled conditions. However, as always it will not be that straight forward. You will notice the height thickness values still strong over nearby France and what looks like a development of a possible heat low formation. Some models develop a cyclostomous development ( flabby low ) to coordinate over the North Sea. If this happens as indicated on the latest UKMO , this would obviously change the forecast for the weekend for thundery and warm weather to persist in SE Britain. The Longer term N. Atlantic forecast model from the UKMO develops a ridge of high pressure from the Azores across South of Britain with the Atlantic Low centre not as progressive as the other main models. So in a nut shell , still a lot to play for in the outlook , starting with the uncertainty as I have mentioned for this weekend. C

Bliss to yourself is another person sleepless night!! Worst time of the year by far when the hot and humid muck makes a visit. So tiring it really makes work hard.

Had an excellent storm here last night. Lightening in the distance from about 11.20pm, sat outside watching it come in until rain got too heavy at about 1am. Was an excellent show, from about 1.30am to 2.30am was constant strobe lightening and fork lightening and deep cracking rumbles that made the house vibrate! Few even made me jump! According to all the weather reports it wasn't ment to make it as far south and was ment to be more west and north of me but i am really glad it did end up here cos thats the first decent storm we've have had since the big one back in 2014 with the big shelf cloud. Really was amazing, feel very lucky to have caught it

You're so right. I have just experienced the best lightning show ever. And its still rumbling on. I only moved down here in August last year and I'm so glad I did. I've had frosts, snow and got the brunt of storm Angus that took my gazebo away. All I needed and wanted was a storm and I couldn't have asked for more. Very happy

I feel your pain. I was heading south towards Woking yesterday afternoon for a landmark family do when it all kicked off on the Penines

Note how the planes are avoiding the storm...

Android smartphone users, grab this app! https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;y=49.9382;x=0.3677;z=8;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; Got these with it last year.

Heavy rain here, and this cloud base:

Here we are now near Horsham Sussex

Just a few snaps of that thundery front, in the SE as it passed over Deal.

Yes indeed, temperatures in the mid and high twenties are a tad underwhelming aren't they - especially when a UK settled warm/hot spell is restricted to a mere week and perhaps a day or two longer A relocation to the tropics solves disappointment in such a way as its possible to bask at a less tepid and sustained 30c + all year around Speaking of the tropics, the opening week or so of June sees easterly trade winds strengthen http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Trade-winds This the result of a convection signal furthest away from us in the Indian Ocean, which will act to dampen atmospheric angular momentum tendency The upshot of this is that rossby wave alignment will re-configure from upstream with emphasis likely to switch from the continent (notwithstanding the on-going uncertainty of timing of eventual breakdown of current increasingly very warm/hot spell) towards the Atlantic with some interplay between the Azores ridge and the Atlantic trough. This implies a somewhat flatter pattern over UK and NW Europe and temperatures closer to normal to a little above at times the further south and east one heads. No wash-out by any means and still some usable summer weather to be had. However, once the tropical signal migrates eastwards and atmospheric angular momentum tendency re-boots , the pattern will re-amplify in our mid latitude sector and more widespread settled summer service should be resumed with the prominent Euro ridge returning and the trough banished away well to the NW. Its then most likely a case of something of a replay of what we have with heat returning north from southern Europe. Enjoy the lovely weather

Yesterday's storm!! In dorset It was amazing in Dorset/Weymouth, I have a nice video of rotation and a momentary funnel that appeared right above me in a quarry at crossways, didn't look like scud!! Will try and upload later