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Some sleet and wet snow up here in Shetland. A dusting of lying snow on the higher ground at the moment. Temp currently 1.9C, dew 0.7C, Wind NNE @ 21 kts

It's late April but there are still snow warnings! A wintry snap on the Gfs 6z with sharp frosts and snow..an echo of winter is on the way.

After mid week and a cool showery couple of days, there is brief ridging before the next intense upper tough starts tracking east en route from the energy repository in northern Canada on a strong jet running west-east. The associated fronts with this system will approach N. Ireland and Scotland 00z Saturday and traverse the country tracking SE over the next 24 hours. And this is where it gets complicated again, The upper trough continues on its merry way but it deconstructs over the UK as the high pressure in eastern Europe/Scandinavia, along with the HP to the south west intensifies creating quite a complex arrangement of cut off lows with the pertinent one to the east. This results in a not bad looking surface analysis with reasonable temps and still not much rain around This evolution is bound to be adjusted over the next couple of days so not much point in dwelling on detail. So in a nutshell the mid week cool showery weather will give way to unsettled weather from the west by the weekend which in turn will be replaced by more benign high pressure at the beginning of next week with temps on the rise.

Indeed. Cold air now in Shetland. We have already received 6 cm of lying snow today at sea level.

So like others have said, a few very chilly days ahead with an air mass which could produce a mix of hail/sleet or even snow in the heavier showers. Just to show how interesting this Spring has been, the models if correct could switch us from late winter to early summer potentially. It does appear that we will initially build a weak area of heights over Scandinavia which starts to prevent the eastwards advancement of Atlantic weather systems before we see a deep Atlantic trough develop with the winds potentially swing around towards a southerly quadrant. GFS similar So a cold week to come followed potentially by a rapid warm up at the start of May, the models possibly hinting at an early taste of summer. We will have to wait and see but given we have seen some unseasonable warmth and then potentially snow falling just about anywhere this week, it is perhaps no surprise that we could see another switch back to a large temperature anomaly.

Welcome! Previous thread was getting rather long and so the door to a new Scotland Regional Weather Chat thread has been unlocked! Be very careful as you enter this place; there may be a lot of hail, sleet, blizzards and ice in the next few days, which may cause all sorts of nasty accidents upon your arrival! And don't be too greedy and keep all the snaw to yourselfs. You must think of those lovely Southerners and let them get in on the action! Previous thread:

Fine breezy day but a bit overcast,weeded garden and dry conditions fried weeds but will not sow anything till next weekend. Cattle still in till next weekend Another May turnout.Currently 6.5c The chang to cooler conditions just starting to come across the Firth this evening Dog has secured the best seat for the cold spell next to the rayburn cats and humans can find somewhere else.

Here comes the cold blast on the Ecm 12z, safe to say tues / wed will be a lot colder than monday in the south with sunshine / wintry showers.. there is a chance of temporary lying snow, especially on hills and tomorrow could be very wintry across parts of scotland with heavy snow. Frosty nights to come too..an echo of winter during the next 2 / 3 days from the arctic.

Ducklings On the way with a snack

Quite a pleasant May day from the 06z after a mixed weekend

Amazing contrast from north to south tomorrow on the Gfs 00z, pleasantly mild in the south and bitterly cold across parts of scotland with heavy snow!

Evensong

Looking like GFS 12Z is too progressive regarding atlantic systems making much inroads into england next weekend, UKMO 12Z/GEM 12Z go for a drier scenario with a strong scandy high blocking any atlantic intrusion leading to a very chilly easterly setting up early May on GEM 12Z, as it's almost May you have to favour a blocking scenario when westerlies are traditionally at their weakest.

Looks like the I'm in Heathrow about to leave the UK model is correct again and it will snow at home tomorrow !

Getting a handle on the evolution over the next 14 days is no easy matter at the moment using the NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies.Although there is agreement on major pattern changes no agreement as yet on how these will run.In the 6-10 period all agree on the Atlantic trough with the eastern European ridge intensify and stretching NW north of the UK and various interpretations of the role played by the Azores, Towards the end of this period the GEFs and EPS retrogress the trough and have the high pressure becoming much more influential and thus more benign and pleasant weather over the UK with temps on the rise. In general they all continue this theme in the next period but I emphasize in general because it becomes a tad complex, In a sense the EPS is the most straight forward with the trough running a long way south east of Iberia (cut off lows ahoy) and the high pressure ridging just to the east of the UK. Ergo gentle zephyrs from SSW and temps significantly above average. Note the GEFS pays a fair amount of lip service to this idea and NOAA a bit of a nod. I suspect it will take a couple of days or so before the situation becomes clearer. Either way the situation is encouraging

Hello peeps. Thought I would drop in. Not a bad day weather wise and could lend to a north beds walk later. Not looking forward to the cold spell coming up, got plants under cover for now but they really should be out now so not doing them any good.

In a nutshell, the first half of the new working week becomes unseasonably cold from the north with wintry showers and night frosts with temporary lying snow at times, especially on hills and further north.

Some moorland birds at their nest sites, yesterday. there were 30+ birds in this flock Back home, Jackdaws have decided home is a (fortunately disused) chimney pot.

I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average. In fact, with that scenario we run the risk of going very very wet eventually.

All through my life springs have had these sudden winter type cold snaps and with strong spring light you can get the most wonderful arctic skies with great cloudscapes and colourfull sunsets, These can last in our neck of the woods till mid summers day as the frequency of N and E winds is high until then with settling snow on the mountains stiil not unusual in June. My mother who was a Londoner said" spring did "nt happen in Scotland summer arrives on the 1st of June" And when she first came here was absolutely amazed to be reading a newspaper outside at 11.00pm in June with our long summer days so there were compensations

An easterly in July or August would be great. May or June might be a bad thing for those after the sun.

probably be marginal here

Indeed, a spell of heavy snow is expected across northern Scotland tomorrow..weather warnings have been issued. Looking at the Gfs 12z..it looks snowy up north tomorrow.

Thin layer of cloud this morning, but sun peeking out occasionally, making it pleasant enough for any outdoor activity. Temp 10C and no wind. Not relishing the prospect of the forecast Arctic blast, but some rain would be welcome. Water levels are very low. West Water, Glen Lethnot.

Can't speak for others but the most I want out of this upcoming spell of weather is a few dry, cold days. i don't want cold rain and if I can't have snow in winter I certainly don't want it now.

The Ecm 00z shows a cold snap incoming from the north , especially for tues / wed with sunny / clear spells and wintry showers, widespread night frosts with icy patches and a chance of temporary lying snow here and there but more especially on hills and further north.

Just as a benchmark for cold, these are all the sub-5.0 lowest averages for 24 to 26 April (and the daily records which belong to the coldest two -- snow fell with these for certain -- 1908 was by a wide margin the coldest): rank _ YEAR ____ AVG CET ___ incl record (bold) for date (non- records in ital) 1 ___ 1908 ______ 2.23 ______ 0.5, 1.8, 4.4 2 ___ 1981 ______ 3.37 ______ 3.5, 3,3, 3.3 3 ___ 1989 ______ 3.97 ______ 3.1, 3.6, 5.2 4 ___ 1873 ______ 4.03 ______ 3.2, 3.2, 5.7 5 ___ 1808 ______ 4.30 ______ 5.2, 3.2, 4.5 6t___ 1827 ______ 4.43 ______ 3.9, 4.4, 5.0 6t___ 1906 ______ 4.43 ______ 4.2, 5.3, 3.8 6t___ 1950 ______ 4.43 ______ 5.3, 3.2, 4.8 9 ___ 1853 ______ 4.83 ______ 5.7, 4.0, 4.8 10___ 1857 ______ 4.87 ______ 5.5, 5.3, 3.8, 3.3, 3.1 (colder 27th-28th). (same tables, four day interval 24-27 April) rank _ YEAR ____ AVG CET ___ incl record (bold) for date (non- records in ital) 1 ___ 1908 ______ 2.95 ______ 0.5, 1.8, 4.4, 5.1 2 ___ 1981 ______ 3.88 ______ 3.5, 3,3, 3.3, 5.4 3 ___ 1808 ______ 4.15 ______ 5.2, 3.2, 4.5, 3.7 4 ___ 1857 ______ 4.48 ______ 5.5, 5.3, 3.8, 3.3, 3.1 (colder 28th). 5 ___ 1873 ______ 4.63 ______ 3.2, 3.2, 5.7, 6.4 6 ___ 1989 ______ 4.68 ______ 3.1, 3.6, 5.2, 6.8 7 ___ 1906 ______ 4.68 ______ 4.2, 5.3, 3.8, 5.4 8 ___ 1950 ______ 4.98 ______ 5.3, 3.2, 4.8, 6.6 9 ___ 1853 ______ 5.23 ______ 5.7, 4.0, 4.8, 6.4 (13t___1827 ______ 5.53 ______ 3.9, 4.4, 5.0, 8.8 ) Three years not in the original table moved ahead of 1827 when the fourth day was added, those were 10. 1888 (5.38), 11. 1860 (5.45), 12. 1799 (5.50), also two others were tied with 1827 (1778, 1813) In recent years 2016 had the lowest averages, 6.4 (24-26) and 5.93 (24-27) (the 27th was only 4.5 last year and the 28th only 3.9). The three days 26th-28th in 2016 (avg 4.5) would rank 5th coldest had they occurred three days earlier. As it happened, they ranked tied for fourth coldest with 1919 for that period behind 1857 (3.4), 1782 (4.23) and 1808 (4.47). (added in edit) ... the 25th to 27th averaged 5.0 (4.5, 5.0, 5.5) in 2017. The 24th at 8.3 made the comparisons with the tables above 5.93 (24-26) and 5.83 (24-27). As cold as that was in 2016, the first five days of May 1979 were colder (avg 4.3). Coldest 27th to 29th was 1826 with 3.8 (from 4.6, 3.0, 3.8). Very cold spells at the end of the month include 28th-30th of 1782 (3.2, 3.1, 3.8). avg 3.37 ... 1808 stayed cold with 5.2, 4.0, 5.5 to end the existing cold spell (see tables above). avg 4.9 ... 1856 had one very cold day (29th at 0.7) and this anchored an average of 4.07 for the last three days. ... 1945 averaged 3.87 (from 4.8, 4.2 and daily record for 30th 2.6). ... In 1951 the last three days were 5.0, 5.0 and 4.4 C. (avg 4.8). Record low for 27th was 2.7 in 1919 -- this cold spell did not quite make the tables (3d avg for 24-26 was 6.6, 4d for 24-27 was 5.6). (record lows are all in the discussion but this will put them into easier recovery mode, I included 23rd since the 1908 cold spell began then). 23rd __ 2.6 1908 24th __ 0.5 1908 25th __ 1.8 1908 26th __ 3.3 1981 27th __ 2.7 1919 28th __ 3.0 1826 29th __ 0.7 1856 30th __ 2.6 1945

I notice Matt H considers this frontal wave may cause a few headaches for forecaster Mon/Tues vis significant snow in central areas

Yes you're right about June, snow stopped play during a cricket match on June 2nd 1975 at Buxton and then there was a hot summer..can't remember when it last snowed on Christmas day though. Anyway, cold snap on the way..18z rolling

Easy to spot the UK

I find the quite impressive part of this evening's gfs is the speed it cuts off the Atlantic around the T200 mark. it drops the deep trough spawned in N.Canada into mid Atlantic and rapidly intensifies the east European ridge in conjunction with Azores which disintegrates the trough to our east to set up a surface high cell over Scandinavia.Which of course places much of the UK into an easterly flow. Not unsupported by the GEFS but I would not expect this evolution to remain unchanged over the next few runs. Sidney was quite phlegmatic when I mentioned the short lived northerly.

Did not see that coming. Really shocked at that.

So, now that the Madness of Easter has passed ( they were here in bigger droves than last year! ) and we can breathe quietly for a few weeks, I notice a definate chill in the air! It was quite nice yesterday sitting in the sun, so long as I had shelter! Snow for some next week, which means rain and sleet for us, but don't switch the heating off yet! Like Northern Lights I also saw my first swallow on Tuesday, and there are wee lambs by the bucket load!! Boy, are they in for a shock next week!

See who turned up this evening, a bit ragged, but a day earlier than last year.

This little brown bird caught my attention this morning, a Corn Bunting - I think - or maybe a female Reed Bunting? Wagtail pair are setting up home in the Barn or thereabouts. Eyes up now for the return of the Barn Swallows. They should be back, all being well, by the end of the week. Edit: Finally decided the bird in the daffs is a female Reed Bunting

I love the uk climate, warts and all. It's full of variety. Some of us could see snow falling between Mon / Wed, colder in late April than it was at christmas.

This happens every time Karl, every run under the T120 timeframe shortens cold spells by small steps, the intensity of the cold is toned down more and more......and then its GONE, or almost gone like this time. Maybe thats why we never saw SM posting who would have taken some interest surely, seen it all before.

Well the cmc is cooking with gas Pete And the anomaly is not a million miles away from the others.

Seems relevant since the topics about CET? And I'm talking about April's CET....

always sunny too, by the posts? and as you say not even in CET zone

What a strange, unwelcoming place this site has become.

Exactly

is Sheffield in the CET zone?

i'm reporting on my area like others do...so CET = Central Edmonton Temperature

April could turn out cooler than March.

Sorry what has this to do with the CET ?????

Looking possible then that December 2015 will be warmer than the preceding November, March and April for the 2nd year in a row.

I expect that 'near record cold' will continue to be put back and downgraded.

And, as out of place as it sounds, only four years after the coldest Spring in 122 years.