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Really potent Arctic blast by late April standards early / midweek according to the Gfs 6z with snow just about anywhere and some very sharp damaging frosts, especially over the snow fields on higher ground. I'm looking forward to it!

morning gang ,not posted lately but i am lurking and reading ,very interesting charts and a big thanks to all regular posters who keep this forum buzzing ,lets hope someof us get to see some white stuff ,cheers gang

Post cold shot, there are some stunning synoptics emerging through FI (if it was winter). All looks a bit familiar with N blocking taking hold as we head into May, with the jet pushed well south

Great looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean for the first half of next week if you like unseasonably cold wintry weather direct from the Arctic in late April..which I do!

Reminds me of the back-end of April 1989; not only was it darned cold, it was followed by a very fine summer...So I'm hoping on knocker's analysis coming off, as a warm-up will be very welcome!

Looking at this morning's anomalies and last nights NOAA the only thing one can say with any conviction is that we looking at a pattern change next week with the demise of the amplified meridional pattern and the unwanted colder spell. Upstream not too bad with the twin lobes Franz Joseph and N. Canada with associated trough Scandinavia and the negatively tilted one orientated into the Atlantic. It could well be the handling of these troughs that is causing the disagreement downstream Although no strong anomalies NOAA and the GEFs are attempting to build a ridge in close proximity to the UK whilst the EPS is making much more of the Atlantic trough. The latter evolution would tend towards more unsettled zonal weather than indicated by the other two. Hopefully this wil quickly get sorted and the det runs start to agree. indications are that temps would still be little below average but rising. Looking further ahea, again no agreement with NOAA tending to be the odd one out although that is possibly down to the longer time period but they are all on the same page, The Atlantic trough takes centre stage but with significant postive anomalies to the north and east of the UK the upper flow backs south west and temps edge above normal. NOAA has gentle westerly upper flow. Actually on reflection GEFS isn't hugely different to NOAA, it's the EPS that pushes the trough further east.

UKMO follows on from last nights t168 by cutting off the colder winds from Thursday Given the lighter winds and strong sunshine now temperatures would be starting to recover by day with quite a pleasant feel

The Ecm 12z is showing a late Arctic blast during the first half of next week with 520 dam thicknesses! widespread sharp frosts / ice is likely and Snow will feature and not just on hills either..maybe even thundersnow!..looking very interesting for coldies next week with a potent cocktail of wintry weather by late April standards!Enjoy

Its been way to warm and dry for the last month and now winters back, I wonder what sort of Summer we are going to have.

I've waited 6 months for a decent Northerly..better late than never I say Nice looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean next tues / wed

After a chilly period next week temperatures begin to rise just in time for the bank holiday weekend especially so for the south and south west

Hello Folks ...an extremely cold air mass from the gfs this time next week and its still sticking to its guns , What weather can we expect??? Everything but the Kitchen sink , well perhaps we might get that if we have a small tornado....

One word sums up next week. CONVECTION. After all, it is April. Get your cameras out.

The late snow is excellent news for anyone going on an end-of-season break to one of the 'late closing' high resorts! But I don't know what you think Julian, it seems to me to be a trend that early season is becoming increasingly unpredictable with regard sufficient snowfall for resorts to open properly, whilst just as resorts close in late season the snow arrives!! Frustrating or what......!! And while I'm here, may I say a big thank you for your excellent weekly blogs over this last season and the hard work you must put into writing them every week. Much appreciated!!

These really are some poor outlook charts for my neck of the woods...this cold unsettled spring continues well into May

I think it will be "diluted" by the time. For this week, hards frosts were predicted last week: did not have any. I am certainly not looking forward to damaging frosts together with all the horticulture and landscape industry, and I am not even talking about my flowering fruit trees in the garden.

Well the cmc is cooking with gas Pete And the anomaly is not a million miles away from the others.

Afternoon all Just a brief thought or two from me. The 06Z GEFS is all about northern blocking in FI, whether that's to the NW (OP) or NE (Control). The main scenarios seem to be either: 1) Heights to the NW or NE are close enough to influence the UK and keep us in a mainly dry pattern with winds from the north or east. 2) If the heights develop too far to the north, the gap exists for the trough to take over which is in effect a combination of the Atlantic trough and the cut off Baltic trough migrating back SW. In that scenario, we turn much more unsettled with rain and showers. Both options are on the table and it's a toss up for me which one wins out. The next Bank Holiday could either be dry, cool and fine or a warmer washout and all places in between.

Some pics from nearby Ski Areas in Slovakia, Zdiar - Hight Tatras,cca 45cm, Mlynky-Slovak Paradise 40cm, from this morning.

The term was coined by Jon O’Rourke, a regular contributor to USW. It is used to describe a line of showery precipitation which forms in a NNW to NNE airflow, typically from Pembroke to Cornwall. This often results in frequent showers, or even more persistent rain, in quite a narrow band. When this occurs a narrow strip can receive quite a high rainfall total, whilst the rest of the south west is virtually dry. It is by no means an unusual phenomenon, occurring several times a year, particularly in autumn and winter. The long fetch across ‘warm’ water from the Irish Sea to Cornwall, provides the right conditions for showers to form. The shape of the Pembrokeshire Peninsula has the effect of concentrating this unstable northerly flow, in the same way as an obstruction in a stream would concentrate the flow around it. The resultant line of often heavy showers is a convergence zone. The long and narrow Cornish peninsula protrudes into this line of precipitation, and often has the affect of intensifying it further. Below are just 2 examples from 2008. http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/216

Yes it's all looking very exciting for a time next week and I'm all of a quiver. Monday sees most of the action in Scotland before we really get into the swing of things on Tuesday with a cold northerly with some wintry showers on high ground and exposed areas, Wednesday sees the ridge nudging in but still cold with possible snow showers concentrated to the north and west and the east coast. Thursday sees fronts winging in from the Atlantic to bring an end to this two day wonder. Such a shame.

Fans of unseasonably cold action packed weather will be in nirvana next week with the potent Arctic air, strong sunshine and heavy showers with thunderstorms, hail, sleet and snow with local accumulations and significant snow on hills and mountains in the north and not forgetting sharp night frosts and ice..winter bites back.enjoy it coldies, we haven't had much to cheer about in the last 5 months!

Indeed I've noticed that too I think that's not a bad theory. Very green and lush juxtaposing with ground level. Well I live next to a woodland, definitely a 'premature' maturity feel. It has not been overly sunny spring.. today for instance overcast throughout, there have been no frosts since early February it has been really quite mild. Not much rain whatsoever.

Nice looking potent Arctic blast on the Gem 12z which prolongs the cold spell to thursday and there is an increasing risk of wintry ppn and some of us will see snow, especially on hills and with sharp damaging frosts and icy patches..a taste of winter in late April. Better late than never eh coldies

A quick round up, good snowfalls as mentioned above for parts of Austria with 60cm and 55cm respectively for Obergurgl and Mayrhofen with excellent on piste conditions up high. Elsewhere across the Alps a continuation of the thaw. A lot of precipitation expected for the Alps next week according to GFS.

very realistic post, know that'll happen, so my favourite charts on here posted earlier by SS

An enhanced risk today in the Oklahoma area. My target today would be Bristow, some nice wind direction change with height plus the HRR shows individual cells developing from around 18z. The road network isn't bad either with good south/east options. could be an interesting night ahead. Next Friday is looking pretty insane at the moment! In fact, i'd be racing south NOW!

Argh bloody phone! Sorry Daniel, I was trying to edit it so I typed the below: I do a lot of ground mantiance for sites all over the south right down to the coast. Some grass requires now a cut every week some every 2 weeks at the moment. What I have noticed this year is the crazy amount of leaves and thick foliage already out on the trees and shrubs. I'm sure you've noticed while driving the thick tall grass on the roundabouts etc and Duel carriageways. What I think is happening like in the photo is the trees and shrubs have gone into over drive because of the amount of strong sunshine and very warm temperatures. If I took a photo now of the oak in my garden and sent it to you had you been out the country, you would have thought is was late June early July. So they require more moisture to accommodate this crazy growth spurt bought on by the near perfect conditions but lacking one thing. Moisture. So all the big trees and new growth is sucking up every drop there is left in the ground. Okay your bigger trees will be way down into ground water, but younger trees and shrubs won't be. I've noticed dead rings huge ones under trees recently like a near perfect circle around the tree. Could be I'm talking crap, just a theory

It always gets watered down, every cold spell did in the winter. I think snow will be limited to northern regions only.

That chart is about as cold as it gets for late April I would think. 12z runs shortened the cold spell, 18z has extended it again slightly into Thursday with HP staying slightly further west. Some snow showers and more organised bands of snow/sleet showing up almost anywhere.

UKMO extended shows the colder flow of air getting cut off at t168 as the high edges in further from the west

Yes it certainly looks like a late taste of winter is on the way according to the Gfs 12z..The S word is going to be used several times next week

If I see a flake of snow this week i'll eat my Macbook. 27 months and counting.

Starting to see the effects of the great lack of rainfall. It shouldn't be like this in April!! The marathon route goes right past me it does make a racket and well you can't get anywhere due to the road closures aside from on foot. At least the weather conditions look good for them.

I would imagine a trough in the flow enhancing shower activity perhaps. Similar to plume events when the most instability is out west but the thunderstorms head northwards to the east.

Hit a brief high of 18C in the sun in Dyce yesterday. I wonder how log it'll be before we see that again? This morning it's 7/8C with lots of grey cloud and patchy rain. Won't complain too much cos we probably need some rain.

Mr. shifty

Probably have a good foot and half here this morning. Meh, i was wearing shorts last week. I'm a seasonal weather lover. This for sure is not seasonal

Don't get me wrong, if I see falling snow this late in the seasonI would find it quite exciting, but I'd still rather be able to sit outside comfortably in pleasantly warm sunshine!

See I just love seeing snow, whether it's settling or not. If it's falling from the sky and I can walk through it I'm happy.

Evening all , Ecm dilutes the cold a little but certainly a Thunder storm chart for the uk this time next week.....

I never said May was summer did I? And the irony of that post is that September isn't a summer month either!

Can't say I feel the same. I'm personally not interested in fleeting sleet and snow showers that have a virtually zero chance of setting during daylight hours! I love winter, but we're nearly in May and I want beer garden weather now please. For the second year in a row it's looking chilly for my visit to the Reading beer festival...

Bit of a dreary day here with a cool feel and not much sun until now, which is a bit late. As for the melodramatic rain posts, I'd love some heavy rain to soak my allotment. I use hoses but when it's dry like this every old bugger is hogging the taps all day and the pressure is crap, so it takes hours to water the whole 2 plots. Saying that, I would not like endless rains and Atlantic rubbish. Some heavy nighttime frontal rain, thundery showers and plenty of warm sunshine to go, please

Talking of which it was raining earlier this afternoon..as we put the washing on the line to dry!

A low of 1.7°C this morning, which is 3°C lower than what the MetO forecast. Pretty cloudy today, and for the foreseeable. I'm not looking forward to any of this colder crap, even if it does bring a sprinkling of rain. Temp: 12.6°C - Hum: 69% - Dew: 7°C - Bar: 1035.56hPa - Wind: W ~ WSW @ 6mph.

Yes very strong agreement now, could get some snow almost anywhere I would think particularly where any organised PPN turns up evening and overnight through to mid morning. Something to look forward to there later in the run as things could start to warm up again nicely in early May.

And fine you don't want rain, there is no need to be so rude to the people like myself that need some rain or worry about the fact we just haven't had any. All I wanted was enough to wet the garden you'd think i'd asked for a monsoon the way you carry on. have a nice training sess.

The Met O site suggests above average temperatures June-August with at or below normal rainfall! link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob By the 30 September we will know the answer Above average T and below average rainfall would suit me personally but make for a lot of watering in the garden.