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This morning's gfs run. Wednesday midnight sees the main low Faeroes en route east and a weak front tracking south east during the day. And so on to Easter. After brief ridging Friday sees the next low just south of Iceland and associated fronts already impacting the north whilst the south remains under the auspices of the hogh pressure, temps around average.The trough tracks ESE and by 12z Saturday is in the north of the North Sea and the wind has veered NW but still mainly effecting the norther half of the country where wtemps will be a tad below average with the south still remaining predominately dry. From this point there is a fairly rapid transition and in the next 18 hours the low tracks south east into Denmark veering the surface flow northerly, introducing cooler air to all of the UK, with showers in the north and east, before the high pressure cell slides in from the west. The high cell continues to slide east, albeit quite slowly, so Monday looks like being a benign quite pleasant day (according to this of course) before the next upper trough arrives Wednesday midnight and the fun really begins with the previously indicated surge of the amplification and strong ridging to the west. From this point the trough tracks south down the North Sea introducing much colder air into the UK but the detail obviously best left at this time. EDIT And this morning's GEFS anomalies continuing to support the above

People keep talking about upgrading this and downgrading that but the detail for the Easter weekend was never pinned down and in fact still isn't. People expect far too much from the models, outside of the reasonable time frame, forgetting, or deliberately ignoring their current scientific limitations. In winter you can say this in spades when the cold cabal are in full hysterical mode.

Saturday midnight the ecm has the low just east of the Faeroes with rain into the north so not dissimilar to the gfs. 24 hours later it is just east of southern Norway with Azores starting to edge in from the south west. Again not a million miles from the gfs. It then diverges significantly from the latter by developing a shortwave in the circulation of the depression way out west which tracks very quickly east to phase in with the circulation of the low to the east and traverse central England later on Sunday. Thus some rain and temps hovering around average. This quickly departs east to allow ridging into the UK on Monday This quickly gives away as the next depression steams in from the west and the associated fronts impact the north Tuesday morning. The amplification to the west then gets underway. Pick the bones out of that but it's obvious the place to be over Easter is in the south west with Sidney.

There's a bit of a way to go for the coldest easter! That was -12.5c in Braemar on 31st March 2013

Evening All! The BBC has said tonight that sleet and snow will be falling across Scotland tomorrow and they say a cool down? What are they on ? Get them out of there studio This coming week will feel "COLD" As for the Easter period , this could well turn out to be the coldest Easter on record? BBC/METOFFICE are like a Chocalate teapot

Hello! Tonights gfs and ecm ops suite suggest a continuation of the benign drier than average conditions ,with temperatures below average , so lets not use the word cool, cool cool at this time of year , it feels cold ,cold cold with the latest synoptic outlook

Nothing to me that suggests 'cold, cold, cold' in the reliable timeframe- looks at worst slightly below average for many, and not even below average further south. Pretty sure 15C is above average for London for this stage of April in fact.

Yes the ukmo 12z looks more settled by Easter Sunday and the Gem 12z improves too with high pressure gradually taking over.

Well UKMO is quite a bit different for Easter Sunday from it's 00z... 00z 12z

Well talk about chopping and changing about, gone is the very cold northerly and we now have more of a cool northerly for Easter, still cold by night but some lovely sunny weather for many areas and temperatures not to bad by day, gone are the 6/8c's that were showing up yesterday in the Southern half of the country and in are the 11-14c's, particularly the further southwest you go. South coast will be the place to be over Easter. We would have all been pulling our hair out by now if this was a couple of months back, every single northerly blast that has shown up in the charts has been downgraded in the end, I have come to the conclusion now that there must be something seriously wrong with the models.

The EPS 850mb mean EDIT The EPS still looking at the high pressure setting up to the west next week and thus a cool northerly.

That's a fair point, Knocker. I certainly don't think the Easter weather is in any way "settled" as yet and intra-run variation adds to the confusion. I do think the key is the extent to which the trough digs SE over the North Sea on Saturday. Some earlier modelling suggested quite a plunge into the southern North Sea which encouraged a height rise to the west oriented more North-South and maintaining a N or NE flow - something like P10 on the 06Z GEFS. What we are now seeing is a more ESE'ly drift into southern Scandinavia which restricts the N'ly plunge and keeps heights to the SW and these build back across keeping the Easter weekend fairly benign before a second attempt at what I shall call "the plunge" after Easter. At T+168 (Easter Monday), there's broad agreement in the GEFS for a new LP to develop south of Iceland and it's what happens to this that drives the FI evolution. Move out to T+240 and you can see the OP and the majority lowering heights to the E and SE over Europe and introducing a cool N or NE'ly but the big spread is Eastern Greenland - this is between those Members which develop Greenland heights and a ridge S or SE and those which build heights from the mid-Atlantic NE but lower heights over Greenland. The latter option leads to the jet sinking the HP while the former locks in the colder airflow. At T+324, this divergence becomes enormous - look at P12 and compare with the OP for example. The modelling has consistently shown the possibility of Greenland heights in low-res but they've rarely come into high-res so caution is very much the watchword. The repeated plunge of Arctic air with associated Greenland heights has been consistently and persistently modelled in high-res but has not so far come into low-res. This may be because of the continued persistence of PV energy over NE Canada and NW Greenland - this has, throughout spring, encouraged MLB rather than HLB but as it dissipates (final SSW anyone ?), there is the potential to import that warmer air into Greenland and encourage blocking and I wonder if the record snowfall recorded might strengthen that blocking as we move further into spring but that's an observation for another place. Yet, it hasn't happened - the PV energy has persisted and held back the development of HLB - once again, until we see it strongly in low-res I would be cautious. For now, it looks as though Easter will be unremarkable - neither warm nor cool, probably near average with perhaps a warmer day or two in the south but also a little rain for all at some point and perhaps something a bit more defined for NE Scotland and NE England.

A quick look at the anomalies for the 10-15 confirms what they have been indicating for a couple of days and that is the amplification with strong ridging to the west of the UK, Thus next week could well see the upper flow veer northerly with temps a a fair bit below average, Can't post the EPS but it agrees with the others and the middle of next week has the surface high west of Ireland and 850mb temps in the -5C in the northerly

The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly cold and unsettled Easter Holiday weekend..much different to this weekend..understatement

According to the GEFS 12z mean the Easter holiday weekend weather deteriorates after a decent Good Friday in the south. It becomes more unsettled, windy and colder.

Well apparently easter is traditionally colder than xmas...although I think the gfs ensembles is overdoing the average a tad...

UKMO looking possibly even better if you are liking the idea of a white Easter.

Today looks like being the warmest day of the year so far with 24 to possibly 25c in parts of southern / eastern england..perfect day for a BBQ across most of southern uk..a perfect summer's day!.

I think it is almost a given that any pronounced colder weather will be post Easter weekend. Quite a few of the gefs showing -8c 850 temps pushing down across much of the country post Easter.

I actually don't think the Easter weekend will be bad at all, at worst it's likely to be sunshine and April showers, some heavy with hail and thunder but they would die out if high pressure nudges in as shown on the ukmo / gem 12z and any cooler / colder air would be negated by the increasing strength of the sun which is already as strong as early september.

Sunny and 25C is about the best we can get at this time of year, I doubt we could go much better to be honest. Still the outlook doesn't look like a washout. Still days like these are not exactly great, sunny until mid morning and then overcast as cloud built up. A typical stable north westerly.

Today's 06z GFS would see the CET steadily falling for almost two weeks before reaching about 7.5 C where it stays late in the period (24th-27th), Easter weekend looking slightly milder than yesterday's run but that near-record cold arrives later in the week around 18th-19th instead, so net effect is the same. Our lowest forecast IIRC was 7.9 C. The GFS can always be wrong on 10-day cold spells so this is not a done deal. The drop will be gradual at first, predicting 9.0 by Friday, 8.3 by Sunday, and 7.5 by Wed 19th.

Much warmer today than it was this time yesterday. So much for a cool down today. 15.7°C.

Once upon a time though Knocker, if you can remember that far back, northerlies occasionally verified from out at D7/8/9 and produced a decent arctic blast, maybe only 1 or 2 out of 10 but it did used to happen in the Dec-April period particularly when there was some sort of model and ensemble agreement. But in the last couple of years its been 0 out 10 and I have lost count of the number of times that a northerly has been showing up in that time frame, what signals do the models keep picking up for the D7-D10 range that are always wrong then? In fact everything is usually shifted many hundreds of miles to our east, surely there is a way of correcting these errors. Now I'm not complaining about not having a white Easter but a bit of convective weather could have made a change if it was going to turn colder anyway

9.9 to the 9th 3.4 above the 61 to 90 average 2.4 above the 81 to 10 average _________________________________________________ Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

Morning all As expected, a glorious weekend. My part of London reached 23c yesterday afternoon and it's no exaggeration it was more like July than April. However, that's on the way out for now and although it's a fine morning again the maximum here today is likely to be 13-14c which is pretty close to where it should be and would still be pleasant under sunny skies (currently). Easter beckons and it's fair to say there was plenty of uncertainty over the coming long weekend and points thereafter with more than a hint of something more akin to late winter on some of the output so where are we this morning ? This morning's look takes us to Thursday April 20th: Starting with GEM: GEM was perhaps the most bullish for an Arctic outbreak but has watered down the evolution somewhat this morning. During this week, HP remains close to the SW but that doesn't prevent a couple of brief NW'ly incursions before the HP declines on Good Friday and we get a more notable N'ly on Easter Saturday. Pressure tries to build back to the north and there's a brief E or ESE'ly flow before the HP migrates back SW and we finish with the above. The Atlantic looks set to roar back with a lobe of PV energy dropping south. I'm not convinced but we'll see. ECM 00Z at the same time: A very different evolution. A messy Easter weekend but not too bad though LP never too far away and from Easter Monday a strong build of heights to the NW though signs of the PV setting up again over NE Canada and the heights looking to collapse but a few days of cool NE'ly winds especially for the SE corner with rain or showers but not too bad for the far NW. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Not a million miles from the ECM evolution this morning. As with ECM, we just about get away with Easter but it'll be nothing like as warm as yesterday but useable for most though likely to be some rain for all at some time that will be outweighed by dry weather especially in the south. It then turns very cool and unsettled immediately after Easter. Into FI and the HP sinks rapidly south but the evolution remains messy with heights rebuilding strongly in Greenland while the trough is shunted south. Looking at the 00Z GEFS and the Control isn't too far from the OP though the N'ly is more intense. The Panel shows a lot of uncertainty into next week - a number of members follow the OP and keep heights over Greenland or to the NW but a significant minority are breaking away from that and there is a mix of solutions on offer. As we've seen repeatedly since mid February, the modelling of Greenland height rises is wonderful in low-res but falls apart in high-res. The problem remains the continuing reluctance of the PV to move or die away from NE Canada even in the throes of final warming. A pool of very cold air remains preventing the push of warmer air north (those Members which successfully build Greenland heights either dissipate the cold pool or send it further west into Canada). In summary, yesterday's summer-like warmth isn't likely to be repeated until, presumably, summer. We're not looking at a chilly or cold washout for Easter at the moment and most will, I think, have dry and useable weather. A spell of cooler, more unsettled conditions at some point (Saturday seems the most likely) in the long weekend is probable but heights rebuild and most will get away with it but after Easter it's more uncertain with a strong likelihood of a few fays of cool wet conditions for the SE from a NE'ly or N'ly set up though GEM offers the possibility of a return to HP conditions. In truth, it's still very uncertain and FI is really T+120 or even sooner at present.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean pretty much mirrors the operational with regards to the Easter period..i.e..becoming unsettled and colder and during week 2 it stays chilly with high pressure to the west and low to the east / northeast..day to day ebb and flow determining surface conditions.

But don't we all just love a bit of weather drama!?

The Ecm 12z ends cold and unsettled, I'm sure there would be some snow around on hills next weekend, especially further north as well as frosty, icy nights and good news for Easter skiing on the scottish mountains.

Easter Monday could be quite a nice day the further west you are in any sunshine as pressure begins to rise again Before that a chilly start to easter it might be a plant planting weekend as thing stand

Well that worked out pretty well! I thought I might get a few critical comments for suggesting 25C was possible ten days ago, so glad to see that work out too!! Good work EC monthly/GEFS means!! About time! Beyond Easter weekend, well, you can well imagine this ridge to our west moving in shortly after IMBY, very upbeat about the weather coming up, a NWly in April can be quite decent in the sun down here!!

Every day is a bonus!

Indeed, and what a difference a week makes, even the SE gets some of the white stuff by next Sunday night on this run.

Well, yesterday was crackin - up to 18 C according to the car. Today more hazy, but nice the morn and 14 C. Clouding over now. Breezy both days, but still t-shirt weather! Few phone pics from walks with the dugs; weather, flora and fauna etc. Gorse is almost in full bloom and very fragrant to walk through at the moment.

Well what can I say? We struggled to get uppers as low as this throughout most of the winter A bit of a nudge west of that high and we'd be looking at some decent polar based convection

26c in SE England academic I know but Ben Nevis sumit is showing -2c and snow showers,that is some 28c difference C.S.

Could make for some higher than usual temperatures too under any summer anticyclone or plume setup.

This prolonged period of below average rainfall shows no sign of stopping If this continues into May parts of the south and southeast might be starting to get close to water restrictions as summer arrives

Nudging towards 23C back at home a "much cooler" 17C here in Winchelsea with a cooling onshore wind more ideal really. I'm pretty sure the London area will top 25C pretty good going for early April.

The Ecm 00z looks changeable, windy at times and feeling much colder than this weekend and especially today. There will be some fine weather with sunny spells, particularly across the south but also spells of rain followed by colder showery conditions with sleet and snow on hills with overnight frosts and icy patches.

This prolonged period of very little rain continues for the south and east Easter weekend whilst not spectacularly warm does at least look dry away from the west and northwest

A wasp's nest in one's living quarters may be intolerable, but:- http://www.rspb.org.uk/our-work/rspb-news/news/286461-what-use-a and Tony Juniper, in his excellent book What Nature Does for Britain, calculates that the services of pollinating insects are worth £400 million a year. It’s really high time we started loving the bloody things. Few people even study them. Their stings mean wasps are among the most under-researched of insects. https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/why-all-civilised-people-should-love-wasps/

They have weird feet, unfortunately didn't get a chance to see them

It's not been too bad for those on Easter hols this week, and this weekend promises more warmth and sunshine. Good that at least some of the recent fine weather has coincided with a weekend. More people will start their holidays this weekend, so I'd imagine the roads will be busy Friday with people wanting to enjoy Saturday. The March 2017 summary is out from the Met Office. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017/march Like April can be, such a month of contrasts. 14cm snow in Co. Durham and 7cm snow in Midlothian and 22.1C in Kent by the end of March

Table of entries for April 2017 CET forecasts Temp _ Forecasters _______________________________________ Statistics (italics) 19.7 ............................................................................... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775) 16.3 ........................................................................ warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945) 14.0 ... LETTUCING GUTTED 11.9 ... STEVE B 11.8 ............................................................................................................ warmest April (2011) 11.7 ... 11.6 ... RELATIVISTIC 11.5 ... 11.4 ... 11.3 ... 11.2 ... DAMI, TIMMYTOUR (+1d)............................................. 2nd warmest April (2007) 11.1 ... HAMMER50, RADIATING DENDRITE, 11.0 ... PORTLAND PAUL 10.9 ... ED STONE 10.8 ... CHRIS.R 10.7 ... POLAR GAEL 10.6 ... DOCTOR32 ........................................................................................ 3rd warmest April (1865) 10.5 ... SUMMER SUN, DANCERWITHWINGS............................................. 4th warmest April (1943) 10.4 ... BORN FROM THE VOID ............................................ 5th warmest April (1798) 10.3 ... BOBD29, GAEL_FORCE ................................................. 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987) 10.2 ... ROGER J SMITH, MARK4 ................................ CET for 2014 (tied 8th 1794, 1796, 1944) 10.1 ... PEGG24, STATIONARY FRONT ................................ 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945) 10.0 ... B87, DANIEL* J10 (+1d) .................. 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, incl 2009) 9.9 ... STEWFOX, MAN WITH BEARD, REEF, MARCH (+1d) 9.8 ... COSTA DEL FAL, VIRTUALSPHERE, COLDEST WINTER, DAMIANSLAW, MARK BAYLEY, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER 9.7 ... SUNDOG, DON 9.6 ... SIMSHADY, MULZY, GODBER.1, DUNCAN McALISTER (+1d) 9.5 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, JONATHAN F., SYED2878 9.4 ... SEASIDE 60, I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, THE PIT 9.3 ... LET IT SNOW!, JONBOY, DAVID SNOW, DAVEHSUG 9.2 ... WEATHER26 9.1 ... MAPANTZ, STARGAZER, SINGULARITY ................................................. average for 2007-16 9.0 ... THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (+1d) ...... average for 2001-2016 and 2015 CET 8.9 ... WEATHER-HISTORY ............................................................................ average for 1991-2016 8.8 ... CONGLETON HEAT, MIDLANDS ICE AGE ................... average for 1987-2016 and 2010 CET 8.7 .......................................................................... average for 1986-2015 8.5 .......................................................................... average for 1981-2010 8.4 ... VIZZY2004 8.3 ... JEFF C 8.2 ... 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 7.9 ... SNOWRAY .... .... ..... ..... ....... ..... average for all data 1659-2016, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800, 2008 CET 7.8 ... 7.7 ... 7.6 ... 7.5 ........................................................................ 2013 and 2016 CET 7.4 7.3 ... ................................................................... average for 1659-1700 7.2 ... ... ... ... 2012 CET 5.8 ... ... ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century) 5.4 ... ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837) --0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772) --0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799) ____________________________________________________________ 56 forecasts were "on time" and five more marked (+1d) one day late ... 61 total median is 9.8 _ this is also the most popular choice. later forecasts will be added in

Stopped off at SWT Balgavies this afternoon but stayed for longer than expected The three folk in the hide had drifted away around 4pm, but while I was watching the antics of this little fella: I was delighted and surprised around 4.40 to catch the return of, probably, one of the regular Osprey breeding pair here.