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Remember late April last year? That day of the Arctic plunge produced one of the best days of weather in my weather memory. It had everything- hail, sleet, snow, thunder and some beautiful cloudscapes. We've had months and months now of a mainly HP dominated weather pattern. Time for a change now.

This link from Matt H is well worth a read using various charts to explain what the probabilities of weather is in the very near and more distant time slots. Using the anomaly charts, is still not really clear what the 500 mb flow will be in 6-10 days time or further out. However, NOAA is reasonably consistent with itself and does suggest that within a week we will be seeing a 500 mb flow from amore NW'ly direction bring rather cold conditions. ECMWF is, this morning, not a million miles from a similar suggestion but GFS is fairly different. For cold fans, it may be worth watching how this playes out over and beyond this weekend. With the Jet-stream pretty likely to be over the UK it does look like being an interesting week or so model watching. Personally I hope the idea of a southern UK ridge wins as dry and warmth are what I would like now. Anyway the usual links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Anything that is shown within the NWP is theoretically possible, regardless of the timeframes involved. So yes, it's proof that the back end of March can deliver wintry conditions (with uppers comparable to Dec 2010). Don't know why you have tried to show him up there?

The GEFS 6z isn't alone indicating an anticyclonic late march / early april because Exeter is also mentioning an increasing chance of high pressure becoming more influential towards the end of March with largely settled conditions bringing a risk of night frosts with some sunshine too and into next month continues to show a blocking signal with the emphasis on fine weather with average / above average temps but still with a risk of night frosts, it's still only a relatively low chance but hopefully continues to develop and bring the uk a prolonged spell of pleasant spring weather later this month and well into April.

Indeed it is but no great surprise when the nearest cold air is Franz Joseph Land and snowflake is downtown Boston. Time to role the boulder across the entrance

The influence of the high pressure begins to break down on Friday with the passage of a small perturbation crossing Scotland followed quickly by fairly weak fronts associated with the main depression away to the north west. There is still a touch of N/S about the analysis with the HP still exerting influence to the south thus quite a windy flow from the westerly quadrant.So sporadic rain and temps still above average. At the beginning of next week the next upper trough approaches from the west and deconstructs, courtesy of the east European ridge, which results in a shallow surface low pressure area to the west, and then the south west of the UK, but more importantly facilitates the next surge north east of the Azores HP. This duly happens and for the rest of the week there is a high cell over the UK with cut off low to the south west. Ergo a period of dry weather with temps around average but likely some sharp diurnal and possibly longitudinal variations. Now last night's anomalies did indicate pressure rises to the west, moving slowly east, after a very brief unsettled period, and the GEFS this morning continues the theme so perhaps a quiet confidence keeping in mind it's a fair way down the line.

Except it's deepest FI, and has zero chance of coming off!

The GEFS 6z mean shows plenty of Azores high influence from around day 9 / 10 onwards, especially further south so a pleasantly warm anticyclonic late march is possible..fingers crossed

For those who miss TVN chasers, there is a new platform online, launched overnight and Brett and Brandon are streaming on it: https://livestormchasing.com/map

And back to polite & friendly Model Discussion from here on in please..

Do you know how NWP works? We have seen such wintry spells in March before...we have historical evidence...some of such from just 4 years ago. This allied to the fact a solid maths based model can churn out such scenarios is proof enough for me. Don't know what else you require? You're arguing over nothing and to pick him up on something so trivial was just pointless.

A chart predicting something over half a month away is 'proof'. What planet are you on? lol

Agreed, one wild goose chase too many! Hope we see high pressure building in later this month..I think it will.

I've given up on arctic plunges in deepest fantasy island..would rather see a warm plume or a big fat high sat on top of the uk.

Ends with a beautiful Arctic plunge bringing snow bearing uppers Would be interesting to get something like this...just think of the convective landscapes.

Hello 18th Dec 2010 in mid March 2017. And the uppers ARE comparable - even heading south across the whole country, which is proof you can get a good cold spell for over half the year rather than just the winter.

Just flicking through the GEFS 6z shows plenty of support for a pleasant anticyclonic late March period.

My goodness it's so quiet in here, very sad. The Gfs 6z is a changeable run with temps around average and plenty of early spring variety, even some snow for a time up north and during low res high pressure builds in across the south of the uk with a spell of pleasant late march weather, a recurring theme of the gfs in the mid / longer range, hope its on to something like the glorious 18z last night which was as good as it gets for late march with wall to wall sunshine and low 60's F.

The ecm has the trough disruption early next week but rather than facilitate the HP ridging it just encourages ingress of energy from the north west with the HP pushed SW and thus an unsettled picture with temps trending below average Signs right at the end of the belated appearance of the Azores. So still a long way from done and dusted,

Morning all, currently northbound on the M74 for a few days in Braemar to explore the Cairngorms on a mountain bike with the other half. Snows looking a bit sorry for itself and not much fresh snow forecast, but on the plus side will be able to explore much higher up on the bike than normal for the time of year. Will post some pics on here this week if there's some good visibility.

Fully agree, I'm ready for some proper warm and settled weather, especially after the upcoming Atlantic dross.

Coming from someone who was constantly commenting on about how March this year was looking to bear similarities to March 2013, back in early Feb. You don't own the model discussion thread, we can all judge/scrutinise what other people say if we like, it's a public forum. It was initially a light prod that you went and turned into something more. And I wasn't even quoting one of your posts! Lol Subject closed as you wish.

Latest synoptic guidance as a less settled spell gets underway. View the full article

What a gorgeous sunny Spring day!! Just been out on my bike in the sun. Loving it!! Perfect bike riding weather!!

Yup - a beautiful day, much better than expected. Pleasantly mild and sunny. No idea why people would want rain instead of this.

ARPEGE (12z) pretty much following on from it's 00z Driest for longest in the east and south on Friday By Saturday we're left with a few showers away from NW Scotland where we could see some snow on high ground The early hours of Sunday sees another band of rain and hill snow moving west to east and dying out by early morning further east

Thanks for the link, will be using that heavily when the severe storms return. Love the deep south / Alabama drawl of Brett Adair and co! Apparently already 4-5" of snow across parts of New Jersey and it's only just the start of the storm before the winds pick up.

GFS following on from yesterday Rain spreading to most areas during Friday Saturday sees the rain becoming lighter and more patchy during the morning with most parts dry by the afternoon Saturday night sees another band of rain spreading across the country this clears fairly early on Sunday with any remaining rain confined to the west

Mild and wet for sure

Agreed, all in all its not looking bad and this current very mild and largely settled spell is most welcome. Tomorrow will be locally warm in the east and south..The first mention of warm makes me think of the summer to come.

As I'm sure everyone is aware high pressure is set to dominate in the southern half of the UK this week whilst the north remains fairly windy with the odd inclement outbreak courtesy of the Atlantic. That is until Thursday when the upper trough over the eastern seaboard spawns a little low which deepens and tracks east be over Scotland by Friday bringing rain (snow on the mountains) and quite strong winds to the north as the high pressure is temporarily relegated south west. I say temporarily as this does herald a brief period where the energy and troughs tracking east gain some ascendancy in the never ending warm.cold interactions This results in a windy and wet weekend in the strong westerly airstream before a new low tracks rapidly north east across the Atlantic to be Faeroe's by midnight Tuesday. with associated fronts bringing more wet and windy weather. From here it's question of, will the Azores make a spirited comeback?

Morning all Five weeks since the end of the last cold spell as the HP block retreated rapidly SSE into Europe. I had thought we would be seeing clear signs of the next change in the patter away from the milder Atlantic set up but I suspect the movements in the stratosphere indicated by Singularity above have a lot to do with the fact the PV is reluctant to fully displace and offer the possibility of heights rising to the NW (or indeed NE). Looking first at GEM 00Z for the early hours of March 24th: Earlier charts showing quite a southward plunge of the jet and attendant LP systems appear to have been overdone and this morning shows a more northerly aligned jet and a fairly uneventful synoptic evolution with a not terribly active Atlantic keeping small systems going W-E to the north of the British Isles. Decent conditions for the south for the most part. ECM 00Z at the same time: No Greenland heights at all and although the model makes more of the brief trough disruption at the weekend by the end of next week it's business as usual with a broadly SW'ly flow and the jet well back to the north. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Something rather different - HP centred more or less over the British Isles with more than a hint of possible retrogression to heights over Greenland. This was hinted at in the GEFS yesterday. It comes to nothing as a new Atlantic LP smashes through to the south of Greenland and the jet quickly takes over. The 06Z OP: HP in charge but a much more mobile and flatter scenario with a strong northern jet sending LP well to the north of the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS show plenty of spread: The Greenland HP option isn't dead and it would also be fair to say there's a solid minority with colder air over the UK. That being said, there's been a clear step away from some of the colder options being shown yesterday (the 00Z OP being an exception). The PV continues to weaken as the month progresses but doesn't displace favourably so it may well be that this year March will come in like a lamb and go out like one as well. None of this means there can't or won't be a late cold spell in early April but the odds have lengthened somewhat this morning and it may be we'll have a long spring before a move in to summer.

Youre probably right , but March is the most fickle of months and Mr Winter Wants Mr Spring to obey orders .....and what do you get.....A Fight!!!

Models are showing a very typical westerly pattern, azores high exerting influence, PV locked to the NW, rather classic default conditions, hence reason many have deserted the forum, especially at this time of year, such conditions bring very non-descript weather with little in the way of interest in terms of a break from the norm. From a personal perspective the current synoptics make for rather dull viewing, but more interesting than a high pressure slapped across us, or even worse just to our NW, with cloud invading the country on a mild NW wind. Traditionally as we move through the second half of March the PV finally breaks down and we shake up the northern hemispheric base winter state in exchange for more interesting non-westerly type airstreams through April and May, when a cold northerly/northeasterly, cyclonic spell, or indeed southerly plume can spring up from nowhere. In the meantime, its a case of watching the sea-saw action of the azores high and the atlantic trough, northern parts most unsettled with some heavy bouts of rain later in the week and trending chilly, southern parts staying fairly dry and mild in the main.

I heard there is a chance of 18c 64f in parts of the s / se tomorrow afternoon and looking at the Ecm 12z I can believe it..a nice taste of early spring warmth and the midweek chart looks excellent too for many. Further ahead it becomes more changeable and less mild although thurs / sat look mild further south and cold air flirts with the far north at times.

ECM 12z sticking to it's 00z run with nothing too bad for the weekend now the deep lows seem to be staying north of us - some wind and rain yes but also some drier spells not a washout by any means

Hopefully things will pick up when the first proper warm spell arrives but in the meantime, the model output isn't dull viewing and the next few weeks should prove interesting with quite a mobile pattern and temps up and down.

I think most have fled now looking for warmth, after what a lot of people considered another disastrous winter in terms of snow, or even if clinging on for hope have lost interest due to how close we are to spring

I'm surprised it's so quiet on here, some interesting model output and a wide variety of weather is expected during the next few weeks..it's such a shame that there has been a mass exodus and we are not even mid way through March.

We are going through a pretty quiet period currently and the next few days continues with a fairly benign outlook,pretty dry away from the far north and quite mild. Looking towards Thursday onwards things do seem set to change as Atlantic mobility picks up again driving fronts across us and bringing in some lower temperatures. Fax for Thursday shows the coming change The high being squeezed away with some unsettled weather for at least a few days,more especially further north closer to the low pressure moving across towards Scandinavia. It's interesting to note the large difference in temperatures between N.Scotland and C.and S.England that are often seen in March either side of the jet. A sharp drop in values as the cold front comes through so likely snow squalls higher up in the north and maybe lower down up there as freezing levels drop behind the passage of the front. With the jet looking like wavering across the UK in the medium term there could be more interest as temperatures and wind direction vary day on day as at this time of year the Arctic cold is still just to our north as it battles with the Azores high for supremacy.

The next few weeks looks like a fluid weather pattern, generally changeable with some settled weather at times, mainly further south (most of this week for example looks settled & mild further south) but we can also expect some unsettled spells too, especially further n / nw. As for temperatures, generally around average, swinging between above and below the seasonal average, cold enough at times for night frosts and for snow on hills / mountains, particularly further north (Scotland)..pretty normal mid / late March conditions on the whole.

The Gfs 00z still shows a risk of some snow later this week across the hills / mountains of northern uk so some welcome snowfalls for the scottish skiing industry who have endured a very poor season..hope they see an upturn in fortunes while there is still time!

The differences between this morning's det runs may well just be down to the interpretation of the phasing/timing of the cold/warm air interaction as the runs progress.

Significant differences between ECM and UKMO this morning Now that ECM has suddenly come up with something different we're going to need more runs before we can call the weekend It wouldn't be the 1st time ECM has found a new pattern ahead of the rest

Although the ecm also has a slight hiatus next weekend and the beginning of next week it is not so emphatic regarding the Atlantic intrusion and relegating the role of the HP

Keep the faith legritter, I've not given up either on some wintry excitement as there is still plenty of time for snow and frosts. I noticed there is some snow on the Gfs 18z for some northern areas later in the week..good for some skiing on the scottish mountains.

I was watching 'Grand Tours of the Scottish Islands - Northen Skye: A Land of Giants and Fairies' on Friday night and was struck by how much part of the island Fladda Chuain looks like Scotland from above. It is down to the angle of the airel shot. Enjoyed the programme and you can still watch it on the BBC iPlayer. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07w4fhk/grand-tours-of-the-scottish-islands-series-4-4-northern-skye-a-land-of-giants-and-fairies

On a more mundane note Sidney had a spot of bother with a Rook.

Had another visitor to the lake today, although apparently it's been around a couple of days. Decided to perch in a tree on the island so difficult to get clear line of sight.

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