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Showing content with the highest reputation on 22/02/17 in all areas

  1. Interesting ECM run but the sort of output that leaves you thinking shame it didn't appear a few weeks back. As you head into March you really need to tap into deeper cold than whats on offer on the ECM. I think for those looking for a last proper gasp of winter we're going to have to see a lobe of the PV drop south which could happen if the pattern retrogressed. A shortwave complicates matters on the ECM which stopped better ridging nw into Greenland, overall it looks like a coldish start to March but nothing dramatic at this stage. If the ECM was on the right lines in terms of pattern which of course at this range is a big if, then you'd need to see the pattern retrogress so energy from the upstream troughing disrupting se a ridge building nw in towards Greenland and a chunk of that PV to the ne being pulled sw to help develop much deeper cold to tap into, the trouble some shortwave energy circled red develops earlier and then hangs around.
    13 points
  2. METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower stratosphere overruns the baroclinic zone and warm conveyor. The dry air descending from the lower stratosphere is characterised by higher potential vorticity (PV) values, which induces cyclogenesis as can be seen by geopotential contours. This descending dry air my also be responsible for a sting jet on the SW flank of the deepening low as it crosses central UK and out into the N Sea, near backbent occlusion The upper shortwave trough digging SE over the Atlantic, seen as kink in the jet immediately behind the low, also plays its part on Doris's RACY, by pushing it on to the poleward (cold) side of the jet stream and also into the left exit as it crosses EIRE and UK, which allows rapid deepening too. Left exit of the jet (along with right entrance) is a developmental area for lows, because this where upper air diverges - causing air to converge at the surface to fill the void and thus lower pressure.
    12 points
  3. With an MJO signal in the Indian Ocean and a stratospheric vortex persistently displaced toward Asia it seems the ingredients for blocking to our NE are there, but the road that the model runs which follow this script are keen to take on the way there leaves not a lot of cold air to be brought our way, resulting in a nuisance chill and little more. Then we have the sporadic signal for the Atlantic jet to remain strong and keep things mobile for us instead. Possibly the tropospheric polar vortex just doing its own thing rather than aligning with the stratospheric one. I wonder if we might see a halfway house of sorts which sees strong westerlies over a mid-latitude block. Sounds all too familiar doesn't it? Not hard to figure out why I've been silent for quite a while; ever since the massive modelling fail with respect to mid-Feb there's been a distinct lack of particularly appealing charts to discuss (or at least, within the 10 day range). Tomorrow was briefly an exception but it has since gone too far with the wind and not far enough with the cold air component. Best case scenario - but not a particularly likely one - that I can see on the cards for pleasant weather is ending up with a mid-lat block but either positioned far south enough that we avoid a nagging easterly or (best of all but also the least likely) aligned in conjunction with a low over Europe in such a way as to send relatively warm air in our direction from the eastern Med. For cold weather sufficient for widespread lying snow we'd need to see a proper annihilation of the stratospheric vortex and then get very lucky with the orientation of the major building blocks. Not sure I'd want to play that game after such a diabolical winter season in terms of defying our attempts to anticipate it's behaviour (worst I've known since I started paying proper attention a decade ago). Okay, time I ditched the morose hat and moved on. Here's to an entertaining spring season 2017
    12 points
  4. Really exciting Gfs 12z tomorrow with a snowfest across parts of northern England and Scotland with blizzard conditions and up to 12 inches in places, drifting in the strong winds and that's the other feature, Gale to severe Gale force winds for a time. I would love to be in the middle of that snowy sweet spot!
    12 points
  5. Morning All- Things still developing nicely for a last roll of the winters dice - I must admit it was lovely here in the sun @18c on monday- anyway the best chart thus far is the UKMO 168 showing blocking developing to the NE as the atlantic fades away to the south...
    11 points
  6. Hmmm conditions at first glance suggest that there is a possibility of a sting jet occurring as already mentioned (been watching to see which way the models will go). Quickly developing storm with an occlusion beginning to wrap around. In theory around the tip of the occlusion if the gap between the occlusion and the cold front is narrow you could get a sting jet. There are one or two negative signs for sting jet occurrence over the UK in current forecasts. Firstly as Atlantic storms go it is not that big or deep, next the gap between the occlusion tip and the cold front does not really narrow until it starts to leave the UK. Key areas likely to be south of a line from Liverpool to the wash with some models suggesting winds gusting to over 80mph with a second area Wales through to South East with gusting winds up to 60mph. With quickly developing storms being notoriously hard for models to pin down I would take those areas with a pinch of salt. Slight risk of weak tornado on the back edge of cold front crossing the south east and maybe at the triple point crossing the borders (unlikely as the instability is not right) and by the looks of it blizzard conditions in the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your view its all best guesses based on modelling and there have been plenty of occasions where potential strong winds , sting jets or blizzard possibilities have been downgraded very close to the event. Stay safe.
    9 points
  7. Can keep an eye here. http://eumetview.eumetsat.int/mapviewer/ Visible VIS only by day. IR10.8 INfra-red interesting and WV is the water vapour where you watch for the dark areas, the very dry stratospheric air, if it starts to entwine in the centre of the low tomorrow early = Explosive cyclogenesis. Still slight confidence wobbles about north/south track. Will affect snow areas most, but could add other parts of ENgland into the Amber criteria
    9 points
  8. The pattern is becoming blocked from 192z onward no matter where the vortex resides.March could become interesting.ECM will get there eventually
    9 points
  9. Can see the very dry air here too on the Water Vapour WV imagery (dark areas) http://eumetview.eumetsat.int/mapviewer/
    8 points
  10. Exciting times for parts of the north tomorrow, heavy snow with 20-30 cm for lucky areas.
    8 points
  11. We are going to see snow in and around parts of the Central Belt, perhaps carnage on the higher and in particular more exposed parts of the A74 and M74, very high winds across much of England -> All leading to big media coverage, spectacular snow footage on TV, big interest to going skiing generated and realistically not one single skiable run at the five Highland areas this weekend. The Ski Areas will miss most of the snow, not get as severe drifting as the stronger winds are further South, then be subjected to silly Munro Level temperatures, incessant rain (at least in the West) and Storm Force SW'ly winds on Saturday. Meanwhile after 56 inches of snow in 36hours (thats when they passed the 500 mark for the season and its now at 556) this is Kirkwood in California, the lucky few who've been trapped in Kirkwood for the past 3 days as State Route 88 remains blocked by snow on one side of Kirkwood and by avalanche and mudslide debris on the other!
    7 points
  12. I can't see very much mild weather on the Ecm 12z run, for the most part it looks rather cold with 526 / 528 dam across the uk next week. It's a generally unsettled run too..not spring like at all..a chilly start to march. :- ) Height rises to the NE with scandi high forming it looks increasingly blocked later with the Atlantic held at bay.
    7 points
  13. Couple of images we've put together to show the areas at highest risk of disruption from the wind and also the snow.
    7 points
  14. A cool start to March from GFS 12z op. Maybe something lurking in the woodshed
    7 points
  15. The Met Office are now mentioning the risk of Storm Force winds. The Fsxx this morning showed a more active inner cold front. Don't worry too much if you are on the edge of an Amber or YEllow warning area. This low is going to deliver very windy weather across a large part of the UK. A gust of 60mph could cause a tree to fall and disruption. The main core area which could see damaging gusts over 80mph runs from Merseyside, N.Wales through N,mids, S.Yorks across Lincs into East Anglia. It is still be analysed as a setup that could produce a sting jet over the UK, which is when the exceptionally strong winds occur. Very difficult to forecast exactly where, often closer to time a red-warning is issued, is it looks to be at mornign rush hour, not overnight. It's been windy enough for northern and eastern parts today from the low near to SCotland, hopefully people won't think Doris has already started. This does look nasty for Thursday morning, lunchtime for eastern areas. Never mind the potential snow fall S.Scotland into Norhtern England.
    7 points
  16. Can we drop the north vs south thing please, it's tedious and is a quick fire way to ruin what has up to now been an interesting thread.
    7 points
  17. What? The storm, or you being born
    7 points
  18. Good evening! I decided to panic buy at my local ASDA. No rolls or milk left on shelves thanks to me Generator is ready. Candles on standby. Shipping Forecast duly listened to see where Storm Doris is. Longjohns looked out. Spikes for shoes looked out. Snow tyres fitted to car. Checked in on all my neighbours see if they needed anything. Snow shovel ready. Filled up pale from council grit bucket. Bring it on!!
    6 points
  19. Similar dates in 2010 brought huge snowfalls under a stalled occlusion to the Northern Cairngorms and Strathspey, I think the bulk fell on the 25 and 26th from a quick look at old charts. As for 2001 I recall a huge fall on CairnGorm overnight Tuesday 6th into Wed 7th March and it fell in mostly light winds after a stormy Tuesday, however a synoptic pattern that stood out from 2001 that brought another one of that years huge dumps was this in early Feb: A similar 'triple stack' showed up in the models for late Feb 2010, the charts didn't end up quite as neat and tidy as those three lows lined up, but the effect was similar: Something in the order of 72 inches of snow on the CairnGorm plateau from radar returns in 2 and bit days - leading to this at Glenmore:
    6 points
  20. Latest video update on Doris from Jo: Video: Storm Doris to bring disruption - wind, rain and snow
    6 points
  21. some meto detail picked up from a friend of a friend, confirms a slushfest for many imo and some awesomeness for those with elevation Some further detail on today, tomorrow’s snowy forecast and then rain on Friday and Saturday: Today: will remain windy over the far north of the country, with the far north of Lewis, the far north of the mainland, Orkney, southern parts of Shetland and the northeast tip of Aberdeenshire covered by a Yellow Warning for Wind until 1500 today. There are no plans to change this – we’ve seen gusts into the 70s over the Northern Isles this morning and this will slowly ease through the rest of this morning and early part of this afternoon. Tomorrow: Just before midnight tonight, rain will start to spread in from the southwest heralding the arrival of Storm Doris. This will spread north and eastwards during the course of the small hours, bringing snow to high levels at first and then down to lower levels across southern and central Scotland by morning. By dawn, we’re expecting it to be snowing over a large part of central and southern Scotland making a very tricky rush period tomorrow morning across this area with snow settling above 150m and a slushy/sleety mix at lower levels. The snow should start to clear from western areas late morning, and should clear the east coast by mid to late afternoon. In total, we can expect to see 10-15cm of lying snow accumulate over 150m, with some local accumulations of 20-30cm possible here. Over D&G and the western Borders wind speeds will also strengthen during the course of the morning, leading to blizzard conditions over higher areas. For the far SW, gusts could reach 50-60mph for a time mid morning tomorrow, so areas west of Newton Stewart have been included in a wider Yellow Warning For Wind (which also affects the majority of England, Wales and some of NI). The main impacts from wind itself are expected to be confined to areas south of the border, where an Amber for Wind was issued yesterday. For the snow, we have just issued an Amber Warning for Snow for most of the Lothians, Borders, Lanarkshires, East Ayrshire and northern D&G. This is valid from 0200 to 1800 on Thursday and based on a medium likelihood of medium impacts. Sitting behind this will be a Yellow Warning of Snow for a wider area, extending over much of the rest of the West of Scotland area, into southern Highland, Aberdeenshire and the higher parts of Tayside, Forth Valley and Fife – this based on a medium likelihood of low impact and also valid 0200 to 1800 on Thursday. At lower lying elevations, heavy persistent rain could give rise to some surface water issues through the morning, particularly so over the Solway Firth area, where we expect to shortly issue an additional Yellow Warning for Rain, valid approx 2200 this evening to 1400 on Thursday, based on a medium likelihood of low impacts After the band of precipitation clears during tomorrow afternoon, showers will occasionally bring further spells of rain or snow during the night and Friday morning, but we’re not currently expecting these to cause further resilience issues. Later on Friday, we’re expecting milder air and band of heavy rain to move in and persist for much of the night and then further spells of rain during the day on Saturday. We are keeping an eye on this as the heavy rain and melting of lying snow could have the potential to cause a few impacts. As an early heads up, we’ll be issuing a Yellow Warning for Rain for Argyll & Bute and much of Highland, and this will continue to be reviewed in the coming days.
    6 points
  22. Another scandi high forms during the Gfs 6z low res through early March..always nice to see a scandi high
    6 points
  23. My flights have been changed so I'm looking forward to watching this go tits up from home!
    6 points
  24. How do you know I won't cheat? My wife reckons that I tend to exaggerate measurements!
    5 points
  25. high and might=comic Pit, you post the most negative comments about just about anything on here. If I feel they are in the wrong then I post as such, plenty of evidence over the years about that. Nope don't use smilies pal, me age you see, approaching 80 and some things are beyond me!
    5 points
  26. I can't help it, I'm already telling folks in the office not to expect me tomorrow / I'll work from home. I'm sooooo... jinxing this for everyone. Sorry. Or at least everyone within a 5 mile corridor of the A68/A720. And probably @mardatha too.
    5 points
  27. Morning all, Is is just me or has the 0z GFS taken the system ever so slightly further north? Anyway an interesting couple of days to come. I think this one is really hard to call and I won't be making any snow depth predictions, unlike last time! Those with a bit of altitude (even 100m) may do rather well. Locally, with the wind off the sea I wouldn't be expecting much if any accumulation along the coast in Dundee and NE Fife. The likes of Sawel, Blitzen, Big Innes & Benvironment may do rather better!
    5 points
  28. Just an initial comment to say that last night’s anomalies showed no inclination to move away from the evolution that has been indicated on previous runs.. So just to reiterate the EPS 10-15, the GEFS 00z will be available shortly, we still have the GOA migrating NW, strong Canadian vortex and trough mid Atlantic. And ridging over the UK and east of Iceland with positive anomalies. Ergo the upper flow backed SW and temps a little above average. This morning's GEFs is along similar lines Back to the here and now. Not to dwell on tomorrow’s storm as it will be covered elsewhere but the gfs has it 978mb Carlisle at 06z on it’s way the North Sea 973mb by 12z. so a short lived swathe of very strong winds in a corridor north of the Midlands and possible strongest near the east coast. Still time for this to be adjusted. After that a deep Atlantic low tracks NE to Iceland with associated fronts traversing the UK Friday/Saturday The beginning of next week heralds the expected amplification and by Tuesday we find the upper trough over the UK with strong ridging mid Atlantic. On the surface this translates to quite deep surface low 978mb over Ireland which has tracked SE as the jet swings around the resurgent high pressure but by the time it reaches the UK it's filling from an initial pressure of 958mb From this point the energy emanating upstream, and the semi block to the east causes the trough to deconstruct and the ridge forced NE ending with a cut off upper low to the south and high pressure to the east. This is not an unfamiliar position but I've no great confidence that this how it will evolve so best left there.
    5 points
  29. Slightly more obvious ridging thrown NE on the 0z GFS UKMO with a slight wedge at 144 One of those situations where we could evolve to cold quite quickly
    5 points
  30. I hope @mardatha has some diazepam and a kitten to cuddle for her hubby, tomorrow is going to be a long day for that gentleman.. With set-ups like this in the past we've often got waaay over the MetO predictions, so fingers crossed for all you guys in the firing line, hope youse get pasted Few rogue snow showers here this morning to get us in the mood for whatever rolls in tomorrow. Plenty pictures please people
    4 points
  31. It seems that Storm Doris will conjure up some weather of interest. It's been a dull and disappointing winter with not a lot happening, especially as far as typical winter weather goes. We've had two occasions of lying snow, one in early November and one last month bringing 1cm. There have been a couple of winters poorer than this but it's been pretty disappointing after the promise in November - which had the best of the cold. In the absence of cold and snow, at least there's been an absence of the more unpleasant varieties of winter weather. Anyway, tonight is set up to be pretty interesting. This sort of event involves fine margins between nothing and a pasting. I'm sure some will be very successful, the Borders in particular and I'm looking forward to your reports and pics. I'm currently in Bearsden, which is just outside the Amber zone and given the winter so far, I'm cautious of my prospects. I'm hopeful of seeing snow or possibly some accumulations, but depending on whether factors are on my side then I could be rewarded with a snowfall to remember the winter for. I'm under 150m, and might be on the wrong side of the heaviest precipitation, but this set up is a bit of a lottery so you can never be sure what to expect which makes things pretty exciting. I'd settle for an inch, but whether I see something better or nothing at all remains to be seen. Good luck everyone.
    4 points
  32. Satellite imagery suggests Doris is developing a centre but not yet in an early stage of explosive cyclogenesis around 54N 19W, tracking more or less due east towards Belmullet. Will update on my assessment of explosive stage which I expect will be around 23z near the Irish coast. The fact that the centre tracks across land will have little bearing on the outcome, a very dangerous windstorm will develop for a wide swath of north-central England and north Wales as well as a few parts of Ireland well exposed to WNW wind direction. This is the key to your local forecast, I would think, more so than exact track, is whether or not your location is exposed to topographic channelling or downslope lee waves from a direction of about 290 degrees. There will be very sharp gradients between damaging and just moderate winds on that basis. Because of the rapid intensification factor, somebody's going to see gusts near 100 mph from this. My estimate of the track of maximum winds would be south Lancs to south-central Lincs, the northern edge of damaging winds a bit hard to estimate because of the inlfow of strong northerlies in the wake but something like Glasgow to north of Newcastle or Berwick. I'm sure we will have quite a range of reporting of wind effects because of the dynamics of this storm, check out your local topography and assess whether or not a 290 deg wind will be forced between hills, or blocked out without enough slope to allow lee wave formation. If you have a gentle slope down towards you from that direction and you're anywhere near south Yorkshire to east Midlands, look out. You could get a lee wave enhancement.
    4 points
  33. Sorry for butting into your thread, but I'm looking at everyone's tonight in anticipation of tomorrow! What a lovely name for a dog! What breed is he? Dogs love the wind and ours have always seemed to get very exuberant in it. Snow - a physical and mental reverie! Stay safe though, all of you...
    4 points
  34. Just don't forget to let the dog back in before going to bed! It'll kind of ruin the day if you look out in the morning and and notice a frozen pair of ears sticking up out of the snow.
    4 points
  35. The ARPEGE does have a tendency to go one step beyond when modelling wind gusts. It did the same with an area of low pressure that affected Southern areas and the Southeast a little while back. It's certainly going to be nasty, though.
    4 points
  36. All we need now is Hawsey popping up with his accumulation estimates and we're all screwed
    4 points
  37. The only thing that'll make me feel better for being in the central belt a sodding week too early is to sit in front of my wood burner pretending I'm back up there, while hoping the garden trees,in this normally weather dead zone, survive the mild *spit* wind. Please, please post eleventy billion photos to help mitigate my poor timing and facilitate this unhealthy fixation with being back in snowy Scotland. Thank you so much! Really hope you all have the amounts you want, especially Catch!
    4 points
  38. There has been a lot of reaction to the name Doris, especially on social media which is what the naming was really for, which has helped highlight this storm. I hope the snow gets as much attention in the warnings as the winds. It has been very windy today so people may have thought that was it for NE Britain. Those newspapers who named Doris at the beginning of the month have been quieter with the usual horror stories , as they've already used their Doris hype
    4 points
  39. Met Office currently live on Facebook about Doris
    4 points
  40. I think I may just go apply to work for the MetO .... I put out the amber warning and 20-30 cm a day and half before them haha! In all seriousness, could actually be pretty awful in parts tomorrow, feeling a wee bit hopeful now being inside the amber area and 200m of elevation, please please please don't f**k it up this time winter! Hopefully we can get some really decent photos too.
    4 points
  41. Yep - let the downgrade begin. Latest Euro4 shows it as a higher ground only affair too. Edit: I must have viewed the warnings before the updates were complete! I'm now in an Amber warning area which has surely just about killed any chance of seeing snow! A yellow is usually enough to achieve that LOL
    4 points
  42. Bouy info here > http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095 might be some interesting data from some of the bouys in the North Sea (62121, 62144, 62145, 62148 & 62149)
    3 points
  43. No significant changes with the EPS this morning in the ext period. Still find the GOA ridge retrogressing and a strong Canadian vortex, albeit becoming a bit more diffuse. and the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic. With some ridging south of the UK and to the east of Iceland the upper flow backs WSW thus temps are a little above normal.
    3 points
  44. I suspect that early March may be a bit early for any significant plume event.
    3 points
  45. Where is everyone.. we have a very interesting spell of weather ahead, alas its a very fluid rapidly changing set up, and watching the classic wave development on Thursday will make for good viewing, in a winter devoid of anything particularly noteworthy of note, indeed the fact we have waited until 23 Feb before the fourth named storm of the season occurs tells it all - compare that to last winter.. The outlook for the foreseeable remains as changeable as it has been for a good 6 months now, indeed we are probably looking at the most topsy turvy spell of weather since last spring. At this time of year, the forum always suffers from a mass departure of posters unless we have freezing temps and snow on the cards - well we have snow prospects for the north at least, at the outlook has quite a bit of wintry potential longer term. Back to the models, ECM quite interesting this evening suggesting a more southerly tracking jetstream and a very slack pressure pattern to our north, ripe for high pressure formation. UKMO and GFS suggesting a more typical ridge/trough formation, with less likelihood for high pressure to build in from the north. Haven't checked the met long term forecast today, but yesterday's indicated significant potential for cold conditions mid month, BBC hinting at this as well as we enter March.
    3 points
  46. The main change in our current "forever Autumn" is the persistent cloudiness. In summer what sunshine does occur is in the small hours before most of us wake. Come breakfast, the grey lid has already slammed down and stays until sunset. Again, dry stats don't tell the full story. Stats might "prove" that 2016 is warmer than 1984 but in '83 and '84 it felt much warmer because we actually saw the sun most if not all of the day. All that incident IR on the skin which you don't get in modern sunless summers.
    3 points
  47. Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in the main upper trough in mid Atlantic during tomorrow. Initially on the right hand side of the developing jet stream; the trough becomes diffluent and thus the surface feature deepens quite rapidly as it transfers across the jet to the left exit area. It is a classic wave development into a major storm, even being given its own name under the system brought in a year or two ago. It certainly has the potential to cause disruption with the winds. Snow on higher level routes on its northern flank also along with the gale or sever gale force winds. No major rainfall problems though, I would imagine, other than local surface flooding as the low does travel quite swiftly. Its actual track and depth will be interesting to watch,well it will to me. No charts but just refer to the GFS output on Net Wx, look at the 500 mb and msl chart and compare it with the chart for 300 mb to see what I have mentioned above. Just back and read 62-63's post, thanks for the comments, not time tonight, and I had not realised there was a dedicated thread either, mods please transfer if you feel it appropriate
    3 points
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