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Showing content with the highest reputation on 14/02/17 in all areas

  1. well if the charts are right : fasten your seatbellts - its an idea
    11 points
  2. Nice chart but I'm not thinking of spring just yet, still waiting for our first proper cold spell of the winter
    10 points
  3. Oh no, not sure anyones in the mood to chase another easterly! Unfortunately we seem to be stuck at day 10 for any charts that show some interest. I'm giving it a few more days to see if any of these charts actually move forward but we seem unable to shake off the PV to the nw and that makes things complicated as we've seen for much of the winter. Unfortunately we're not seeing the MJO currently force much in the way of trop response something that was noted by NCEP in their update and even though the MJO is in record breaking territory in terms of amplitude its not counting for much at the moment. I'm giving it to Friday to see concrete signs of some changes otherwise I'm going to close this book on winter 2016/17 and put it in the promised much but delivered not very much category. Last winter was promised zip and delivered zip!
    8 points
  4. As you say ,no clear evolution yet ,but I,m hoping a visit from the North at end of month ,today's gfs not the best for cold lovers ,think it's a case of just waiting (yet again ) for the Hunt ,great forum gang ,I, v been lurking of late as nursing my 94 yr old mother in law who passed away last week ,cheers gang .
    8 points
  5. Joe B tweeted this 24 hours ago strongest phase 8 MJO in 40 plus years record forecasted now on BOMM, NCEP, ECMWF, JMA Amazing Just went through major warm phases 5,6,7 GFS is quite consistently playing with N/NW incursions near the rear end of February I've noted. Hopefully, we see a much better response to this, it might take till March to really emerge.
    7 points
  6. This high is in no rush to leave bar some rain in the far north and west most areas look like staying drier than average
    7 points
  7. Lovely sunny start, although branches swaying in a stiff breeze. 5.2C. Forgive my obsession with satellite images from Sat24, but I really enjoy taking a look in the morning, not just to see what's happening in the UK but to take a look around Europe too. Today is typically informative, showing the Low to the west of Ireland and its associated straggling occluded front stretching from the Med right up through the West Country and Ireland. The cloud on the front is streaming in a NW direction, whilst the front slowly edges east. Looks like East Anglian favourite to hold on to sunshine the longest today. Oh, and you can pick out the snow cover over the Alps, Pyrenees and mountains of Norway and Sweden!
    7 points
  8. 6 points
  9. Chasing day 10 charts has been the theme of this winter for the coldies. Why stop now? Lol
    6 points
  10. Back in familiar territory chasing Ecm cold potential at T+240 hours..does any coldie have the strength left for that?
    6 points
  11. Had tae read that twice HC! The first read had ye pure teuchtered up in a heavy Tweed Jaikit and a Kilt. Big Innes
    5 points
  12. Signs of cooling further east in the GEFS further out are now making me raise an eyebrow. This seems to have been gradually increasing over recent runs and now both control and op have joined the shenanigans. Nothing more than academic interest though at this range.
    5 points
  13. Let's keep this thread moving. There's some real spring eye-candy coming up around D10. This will get the daffodils out: [ ** EDIT: REMOVED as changed with 06Z run!! ] All depends where the ridge goes though, too much sting in the Atlantic and it will just topple back over us again: Coldies could do with some Valentine's Day strat-love, really Or some MJO love?
    5 points
  14. That's the spirit, don't give up as there is still plenty of time left for a proper cold spell to develop..Yes the models show a milder changeable outlook but coldies need to hang in there.
    4 points
  15. Pressure rises from 995 to 1010 just off the northern coast of Norway from day 9 to 10. Optimal place for the UK to receive it's long over due proper easterly Yes, it may well be a transient pressure rise but I will be keeping an eye out on future runs.
    4 points
  16. Hello MWB, Funny you should say that. Before I retired my office was based at Euston Tower a 31 storey tower block. My workplace was on the 27th floor. In marginal snow situations there were occasions when there was snow falling outside my window but by the time it reached ground level it had arrived as rain. Kind Regards Dave
    4 points
  17. This upcoming warming is quite interesting, as many wave 1 events in the past seemed to push the PV towards our side of the hemisphere, but the GFS has been consistently modelling the PV at 10hPa to be displaced well to the east (although this is still in the extended range). Today's 6z shows the possible effects of this, with downward propagation resulting in a nice stratospheric ridge over Greenland at 30hPa, and there are signs of a ridge beginning to build at 100hPa at the end of the output. It is only one run so caution required, but something to keep an eye on. EDIT: Fixed the images.
    4 points
  18. Not a lot of rain on offer from this mornings UKMO away from the far north and west
    4 points
  19. I'm looking forward to the morning runs now. Much more than I thought I would be lol
    3 points
  20. The anomalies this evening continue the theme of the pattern change that they have been indicating for a while with the transition occurring across the 5-10 and 10-15 divide. Consequently in the 5-10 period we are looking at a rather complex vortex with the main lobe still around Franz Joseph Land but interest with the N. Canadian lobe gaining momentum. Thus the strong ridge over N. America weakens and begins the retrogression to the GOA Meanwhile we still have some positive anomalies in the eastern Atlantic with some ridging from the Azores thus a retention of the fairly strong W/WNW flow around the high pressure. Ergo a continuation of pretty dry weather in the south with frontal systems forced NE. Temps average or above. As always the precise details as to the phasing of the warm/cold air down to the det. runs In the ext period the transition is complete with the N. American ridge replaced by a trough and with the suggestion of a Scandinavian trough and even one from Greenland to mid Atlantic it all has a zonality look portending more unsettled weather forthe whole of the UK with temps around average.
    3 points
  21. Ahh March 2012, what a month! March is always an interesting month with regards to model watching, can give some mad charts! Considering the signal for blocking coming from the BBC's Weather for the Week Ahead Forecast for February's end, a March 2012 or 2013 scenario may not be out of the question.
    3 points
  22. Looking at the Gfs 6z, the cornish woodshed could record 12c today but for many it still feels a bit chilly although temps are higher than recently but during the rest of this week it's set to become mild, especially further south and west with temps as high as 13c in places. There also looks like being a lot of fine and bright weather with just bits and pieces of rain, mostly across NW uk.
    3 points
  23. Every day for the next 10 days has a forecast high above 10C. No rain either, so that's fine by me. Sick of this damp, cold rubbish. Bring forth an early taste of spring.
    3 points
  24. Tbh Nick,this has been a winter when alot of the background signals etc have acted a little strange to what we would expect. Just wish we knew what was driving what and the order of the coggs lol.
    2 points
  25. Well it turned out to be a cracking afternoon. The wind dropped to a light breeze, the sun was out and the temp soared to 13C and Sidney was out cavorting.
    2 points
  26. Volitle model outputs indeed a split average zonal or heights over the uk or north south split dryer in the south but what is noticeable it's the polar vortex trying to get over to the siberian side. But there's no clear evolution very dissapointed plenty of egg on my face that's for sure. But anyway might as well hunt for some early spring warmth.
    2 points
  27. I think it would be snow at the top of the Shard, BA
    2 points
  28. Still quite chilly with the wind but the skies look something like a balmy spring afternoon (without the balmy warmth) lovely day
    2 points
  29. Spring would be nice The last thing I want is a March 2013 redux where it was +14C on 6 March and then -14 on the 24th!
    2 points
  30. Next weekend looks really pleasant on the 6z, really quite spring-like for most of the uk as the Azores high starts to ridge in.
    2 points
  31. CFS now going for a rapid transition to a weak/moderate El Nino The latest weekly El Nino update (yesterday) is here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
    2 points
  32. Whilst the mood music for another SSW increases for about 10/12 days time, the zonal wind flow on the last two ec, runs has shown an area of stronger flow around 50/ 60N 300hpa setting up in about a weeks time which slowly exerts itself further down towards day 10. this trend will mean it's unlikely we would see any blocking at a high enough latitude to advect cold enough uppers to nw Europe before months end. (Other than a very brief lee northerly toppler). I guess no one was expecting to see anything before then in any case but it would put paid to any hopes of a quick dash to colder conditions appearing from nowhere.
    2 points
  33. Before we write winter's obituary,there is a signal in FI for ridging to our West and the trough dropping over or to the East of us.Will it gather pace?
    2 points
  34. I can't see anything notably cold towards month end although looking through the 12z gefs clusters thereis evidence of the jet coming south again with some signs of lower temperatures after this weeks warm up. T300hrs groupings for example http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cslp&HH=300&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= and the mean chart Of course at that range the mean smooths out the flow somewhat but some signs of a UK trough there. An even chance of some transient polar maritime shots as mobility increases in week 2 especially further north where some quite cold air is lurking.The overall pattern though just lacking enough amplification for anything more currently.
    2 points
  35. I wonder if we'll squeeze a 15C out of this cycle ... after all the recent cold it could feel slightly tropical. Just flicked through the GFS 0.25, and see that 13C is quite possible every day for the next 10 days - that's quite something for February.
    2 points
  36. It's amazing how a little sunshine can deceive one to thinking its warmer than the actual temperature suggests lol .. ...what do you wear in Summer a fig leaf?
    2 points
  37. Seems that Exeter are putting some credence in the MJO signal towards month end judging by hammonds forecast. ens means not buying into it a yet and GFS members varying run to run as to how many see it. As ian mentioned the other day, are the models slow to react to the signal?.
    2 points
  38. 2 points
  39. (Ellan Wood, Carrbridge and Loch Morlich / Glenmore the morn).
    2 points
  40. Summer of 72 - I remember it well. My last summer of freedom before starting at big school. I got taken to the school uniform shop and dressed up in some dreadful stiff, dark blue clothes that I quickly outgrew but weren't replaced (for the obvious reason) till next year. I spent the rest of the summer with this huge dark cloud hanging over me, and it didn't lift till I left school. Nearly all the teachers from that era are dead now - I keep an eye on the local paper still cos there's a couple left...
    2 points
  41. Well, I've just been having a quick look at how the CFS see's Spring 2017 panning out... March does look like it could be a month of many weathers. April looks fairly high pressure doninated. And by the time we get to May, the high pressure seems to have slipped further south, although still covering the southern half of the UK. So based upon this, I'd say that with the exception of March, we could be looking at quite a dry and warmish spring!! But will it pan out like this? ... Time will tell
    2 points
  42. Well, we've passed the point of mid winter, and day light is slowly increasing... So the long range freak in me is naturally starting to think ahead to spring, and what will it bring? Will we get a March like 2012, and an April like 2007 (or 2015), followed by a hot and thundery May? Or will we get that taste of winter like March 2013, and April 2016? Or will it be a season of many weathers? What would you like Spring 2017 to bring to us here in the UK? Personally I'd like to see traditional month of March, a month of many weathers, ranging from snow, with strong squally winds, to that first nice seasonal burst of spring warmth, but with cool nights, and an occasional foggy start. As for April, I'm all in favour of some squally showers, before slowly giving way to pleasant sunny days. And finally, the month of May, this is the time when I like to see the first true burst of summer heat, so I can get the barbecue out accompanied by a good old thundery breakdown So what are everyone else's thoughts, hopes and wishes for spring 2017? PS. Mods, if I've put this in the wrong place, or I'm too early, then feel free to move or delete as required.
    1 point
  43. I want a March 2013 rerun. Especially as this Winter's been pants. Warmth can wait until April. After all many people like September to be an extension of Summer and in less than ideal ones many see September as the last bastion of hope for some warm and settled sunshine, so I don't see the rush for warmth in March. It can and often has snowed then of course. There's about 5 months after then for potential warm, sunny and of course thundery opportunities. For a month though where snow is still possible, but doesn't fall into the unlikely category such as April (very unlikely) , May (especially unlikely) and even June (extremly unlikely, but happened in 1975) I'm going to wish for it.
    1 point
  44. Sorry, I don't look at them face things, the only one I use is the celebrating one when we get an 80's run come out.
    1 point
  45. I find all this very entertaining. We are surrounded by water on every inch of this island. The synoptics really do have to be so so right for us to have a prolonged cold spell. for me the holy grail will always be 2010. It is always said, get the cold in first and the snow will follow, and to some extent that did happen, but it was a short lived period. What I have enjoyed is the freezing days where as each day went on the frosts got more and more sever in January, to show that there was about 6 inches of ice on Danson lake. Have to say we were incredibly unlucky with the last beast from the east. The synoptics changed over a 5 day period, which reduced our chances to wet snow on Saturday. Is still much better than last year. think we had 14 consecutive hard core frosts which is good for me.
    1 point
  46. Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual. I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare. Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate. Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential. I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise. Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.# If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable. If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this.... *Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands. Barmada Casten
    1 point
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