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Showing content with the highest reputation on 13/02/17 in all areas

  1. There is typically a lag time of around 10 days for an MJO-induced Rossby Wave to reach high latitudes (Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady-state linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1175–1196) - phases 8 more favourable than 7 for UK so like you say around the 25th, but not because of the subsequent return to phase 7 shown on the GEFS, but from the current phase movement through 8 and 1. The GFS forecast for it move back into phase 7 around the 24th may not have an impact until into early March. For example, MJO went into phase 7 on the 9th Feb, 10 days on from then we can compare the phase 7 composite for amplitude >1 with the forecast GEFS z500 mean for the 19th Feb, not too dissimilar upstream other then the lower heights downstream over Scandi Feb MJO composite for phase 8 with amplitude >1 (below), 10 days from current phase movement into 8, takes us to around the 25th, IMO movement from 8 into 1 more favourable than 7 into 8, but obviously MJO propagation in 8/1 and the resultant increased amplification of Rossby waves into higher latitudes does not automatically = blocked/cold/snow for us unfortunately, as more mesoscale changes in the atmosphere can ruin prospects. However, we do also have the wave number 1 warming helping to displace the sPV over toward NW Russia / northern Scandi after its current return to northern Greenland / N Pole area. This appears to have the immediate response of increasing the 500mb zonal flow over far N Atlantic into Scandi, but with time height rises / amplification transferring east over N America under a stratospheric high developing and moving east towards Greenland may allow height rises over N Atlantic and perhaps into Greenland to end the month. Of course, I could be completely wrong, the atmospheric patterns don't always follow the historic composites of oscillations and/or there is disconnect between the trop and the strat. But I think there is some positive indications from both the MJO movements and next sPV displacement to give tentative signs of winter returning at the end of this month and into early March. Not ideal, as snow tends not hang around as long as Dec-Jan, but don't be fooled by the warm up and early Spring feel over the next 10 days or so.
    27 points
  2. Oh hang on, what's this... GFS has started to pick up on that ridge moving out of Canada which can be traced back to day 8. It's enough on this run to initiate something of interest.
    17 points
  3. As posters above have said, we now turn our attention to what is possible at the fag end of winter. I looked back at the synoptics of a few blocked winters like 1963/4 and 1975/6 and noted that the tendency for heights to reset themselves in places that did not support cold and snow was a strong one. And because these changes are so slow in themselves it can be frustrating. Like watching a GFS high in FI which follows us around like a mosquito. However, even in these unfavourably blocked winters their is usually a decent cold shot or two. So while I cannot say whether the last train has left the station, I wouldn't throw away the ticket yet. And when the synoptics are right, then March can deliver proper winter. Take the example below. 10cm of snow on the south coast, which for 2 days did not melt at all in brilliant March sunshine and was still lying in the shade a week later. If only!
    8 points
  4. Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual. I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare. Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate. Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential. I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise. Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.# If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable. If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this.... *Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands. Barmada Casten
    7 points
  5. Looking at the models, I think that's pretty much it as far as a cold spell is concerned for the rest of February. It looks like a generally unsettled and much milder outlook with just short-lived colder incursions, mainly across the north and some brief quieter interludes with fog and frost, chiefly in the s / se.
    5 points
  6. To put the 81° 29′ ice free extent in summer into context, over the last 3 months we've regularly been ice free north of 82°, and even north of 83°N just before Christmas. That's in the middle of winter too. The warmth and ice loss back in the early 20th century just isn't at all comparable to now
    5 points
  7. The GEFs continues it's upstream transition to a GOA ridge and a vortex lobe N. Canada leading downstream to a zonal Atlantic with faint ridging to the SW and S. As of last evening some indications of a Scandinavian trough late in the day which may, repeat may, be reflected in some Pm incursions. Meanwhile back at the ranch not a great deal to report with the transition of the high pressure from the east to the south west and south and the westerly flow promoting Atlantic incursions around the ridge. Ergo mainly dry in the south with temps around average or above. As an aside this morning's 100mb chart at T360 is not adverse to the vortex/trough influencing the UK.
    5 points
  8. Good agreement on the displacement SSW / Near SSW happening between ECM anf GFS now. hello cool showery spring with wintry PPN! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2017021300&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=228
    5 points
  9. Nice looking charts in the reliable timeframe . Mainly dry , rain at times in the north and west , mild . Roll on summer
    4 points
  10. (Ellan Wood, Carrbridge and Loch Morlich / Glenmore the morn).
    4 points
  11. Summer of 72 - I remember it well. My last summer of freedom before starting at big school. I got taken to the school uniform shop and dressed up in some dreadful stiff, dark blue clothes that I quickly outgrew but weren't replaced (for the obvious reason) till next year. I spent the rest of the summer with this huge dark cloud hanging over me, and it didn't lift till I left school. Nearly all the teachers from that era are dead now - I keep an eye on the local paper still cos there's a couple left...
    4 points
  12. The updated ECM weeklies overnight for the next 4 weeks show above average temperatures with precipitation starting to increase during late Feb and early March
    4 points
  13. Saturday - Cool , damp with light rain at times, dull & grey Sunday - Cool, damp with light rain at times, dull & grey Today - Cool, damp feeling but dry so far, dull & grey Oh, there may have been some wet snow falling on Sunday evening but I'd lost interest so only very briefly glanced out past the blinds.
    4 points
  14. OK, I know it's not the end of winter (although it may well feel like spring later this week). I just want to say that personally its not been too bad a winter. I would love a repeat of Dec 2010, or Jan 2013 etc etc but at least I have seen snow falling on four days (in two spells) and had settled snow (ok not much, but def there) on two mornings. We have also had a lot of epic frosts (down to - 8 deg C) which has meant a lot of car scrapping. I am a long time resident of west wilts and I remember many years pre internet watching the farming forecast, desperate for a hint of snow. My recollection is probably shaky but in the years I recall with some accuracy, from 1985 onwards, I would say a typical wilts winter was not that snowy. I think too many people have unrealistic expectations and tbh false memories if they think winters now are 'modern' or some such. Surely the recent colder ones (2008-2013) should knock that one on the head?
    4 points
  15. Seems that Exeter are putting some credence in the MJO signal towards month end judging by hammonds forecast. ens means not buying into it a yet and GFS members varying run to run as to how many see it. As ian mentioned the other day, are the models slow to react to the signal?.
    3 points
  16. Sorry, I don't look at them face things, the only one I use is the celebrating one when we get an 80's run come out.
    3 points
  17. Hence with the emoji . Sorry there was a bit of sycasm , it couldn't be any worse really
    3 points
  18. Still pretty good agreement with the anomalies this evening. Still the main lobe of the vortex around Franz Joseph area but signs of it becoming more complex with another lobe around N. Canada. Still the trough in the western Pacific and western Atlantic with the ridge in N. America producing some very positive anomalous temps.Thus a continuation of the upper flow swinging out of North America setting up a zonal westerly pattern that swings around the ridging in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo little change to the previous general analysis of the southern half of the UK remaining predominate;y dry as systems tend to impact the north west. The detail as usual to be sorted by the det. runs. Temps around average or slightly above. The 10-15 period continues the readjustment of the vortex with a stronger N. Canada/Greenland lobe. the retrogression of the N. American ridge to the GOA and thus a more definitive zonal flow with the decline of the ridge in the eastern Atlantic. The GEFS is bowing a little to a trough over the UK and mid Atlantic ridge. All this would tend to suggest a generally more unsttled picture for the UK with temps still around average or above.
    3 points
  19. The ECM improves in terms of some potential towards day 9 and 10 and the GFS moves in the other direction. I think the issue still remains the reluctance of the outputs to remove a chunk of the PV over ne Canada. Theres no chance of ridging north whilst that remains there. If more amplitude does appear upstream then the troughing to the east from day 8 to 10 is well placed. It still overall looks a bit messy and complicated, the Azores high is trapped in and can't escape nw because of that shortwave energy off the ne USA. I still wouldn't rule out some cold towards the end of February , theres certainly a good source of that to the ne and any more amplitude upstream could deliver that south into the UK.
    3 points
  20. Another fact to consider is the period a lot of members were born and growing up. Due to the fact there was a marked increase in number of colder and snowier Winters in the UK from the 1940s (early-mid 1970s excepted) to the 1980s, anyone who's at least in their late 30s or early 40s will have a skewed perception of what a British Winter should be like. Consequently it reminds them of more care free days, and when it does happen it reignites that spark within and gives them something of a natural high. But maybe the Winters since then are much more typical ie usually mild with little snow, with just the occasional colder and snowier one. Then again some of us younger ones who can't remember the more regular cold Winters of the 1980s are still snow obsessives, and like myself can only remember as far back as the less regular and generally shorter lived snowy episodes of the 1990s. The last 4 years for many of us though has been especially bad in this regard, but hardly unprecedented and a few successive years with little to no snow here is to be expected from time to time in our climate. It may seem like a long time since 2013 and even 2010, but it isn't really. We simply can't expect snow nirvana every year and if we're willing to live here we should really just except that as any Winter approaches there's a good chance we'll get little in the way of snow. We'll get another half decent one eventually just by the law of averages alone, but when we do we should remember a less desirable one is never too far away.
    3 points
  21. Warm and sunny today with just a gentle breeze. Loads of palm trees around and lemon trees.
    3 points
  22. 3 points
  23. No significant change in the anomalies this evening from last evening and they are all on the same page. In the 5-10 range the vortex over Franz Joseph land.trough eastern Pacific and western Atlantic with a ridge situated in eastern N.America (some intense WAA), Thus a fairly weak jet tracking SE out of N. America and then NE around the Azores ridge situated to the SW of the UK before settling on a upper flow from the WNW over the UK. This has all the indications on a N/S split as systems track around the HP with the south remaining dry. Just how the detail of this split materializes depends on the det runs interpretation of colder/warmer air phasing but certainly the percentage play remains a fairly quiet period interspersed with the odd unsettled foray from the Atlantic with temps significantly up on this weekend. Still some significant changes as we proceed. Upstream a lobe of the vortex N. Canada, retrogression of the N, American ridge to GOA. With the main arm of the vortex now over NE Europe and the positive anomalies weakening to the SW of the UK a more zonal westerly flow ensues with perhaps a period of more unsettled weather with the temps possibly varying around the average
    3 points
  24. A couple of images from this morning and at dusk from the new Summit Webcam on Aonach Mor in the Nevis Range. Check out the updating images at http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/nevisrange/ .
    3 points
  25. 2 points
  26. If you consider that a nice looking chart then you must love UK's default weather, wet (but not tropical amounts) and generally the average uk winter bordering spring / autumn temps.
    2 points
  27. I see the GFS 12z operational has now even robbed us of the eye candy that was appearing post 300hrs. Let us hope that Nick F is right in his well thought out and composed post.
    2 points
  28. Hi Barmada-Casten. This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather, It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.
    2 points
  29. It would seem that the dramatic weakening of the Westerlies of the sub-arctic Stratosphere at the start of February has not amounted to much; we have had a few days of easterly winds but no real low temperatures and snow (only got to -2C where I live in the North Pennines). Other factors, perhaps the unusual warmth of the far NE Atlantic and the effects of the strong Westerly QBO phase have meant that pressure has not remained high enough for long enough to the north of Britain to deliver real cold air to the entire country. However, predicted polar stratospheric warming at the 10 mb level is predicted to lead to a possible reversal of stratospheric Westerlies over the sub-arctic near the end of this month, vis: Lets see if this can result in some real cold-weather synopsis in early March 2017! If this month is anything to go by the effects of the unusual warmth of the far NE Atlantic and Westerly QBO (by then combined with the strengthening sunshine and lengthening days of March) could well mean persistent high-pressure in mid-latitudes- i.e. over Europe with lower pressure over the warmer far NE Atlantic leading to quite benign conditions instead. We shall see.
    2 points
  30. Agreed i lived in Exeter for nearly 20 years and worked a lot in Somerset..often you would go years with little or no snow.
    2 points
  31. Excellent post, couldn't agree more. All this desperate chasing of cold at 10 days out isn't going to make it actually happen, as this winter has clearly demonstrated. We do not 'deserve' snow, we live on a mild rainy island where snow will always be an occasional (Scotland and high ground) or rare (everywhere else) exception. Unfortunately, fantasy is always better than reality and people will believe what they want to see and then have a meltdown when it doesn't happen!
    2 points
  32. And the uk deserves a proper cold spell! however, it looks like the models are taking us towards a much milder and generally unsettled pattern.
    2 points
  33. 2 points
  34. I really do feel sorry for the cold/snow lovers out there. I'm not a fan of the cold at all, but i would never begrudge cold fans a decent winter and they've been let down for the third year running:( Unfortunately I feel the correct synoptics for cold will arrive at the wrong time of year (April/May) when it's not conducive to proper cold and will spoil spring which would suck
    2 points
  35. Here are some photos from near Dovestones on Sunday. It was a near blizzard at the top, luckily as the snow wasn't large flakes it wasn't a whiteout but the wind was pushing us and the snow stinging your face when you faced it. Also a video here from the summit of Indians Head: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLZvMLC05SA And one on the climb down:
    2 points
  36. Should have visited December 2015, it was T-shirt weather then!
    2 points
  37. At D7 this morning UKMO, ECM and GFS all show high pressure nearby it's just where it will sit as to whether we get westerlies or a northwesterly
    2 points
  38. Morning all Back to the output after a busy weekend which saw falling snow but no settling snow in lowland East London. I said last week my view was we would move into a 21-day milder spell of weather from Tuesday (after six days of below average temperatures in London) as we had, as is often the case, a pre-spring warm up in mid to late February before early March sees a pattern change to something colder again. Where are we this morning ? Starting with the situation next weekend and UKMO opens with a benign offering as the Azores HP ridges from the south of SW albeit with an interesting orientation toward the British Isles. ECM at the same time: Note the absence of the Iberian LP on the ECM output. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A bit of a halfway house - conditions settling from the SW though quite breezy over the far north of Scotland. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: So the models all pretty much in the same place with UKMO if anything on a slight limb this morning with the small Iberian LP. Moving on.. GEM at T+240: ECM: GFS offers something different: This may just be a question of timing but note how the LP systems are further south over Scandinavia indicative of a stronger dig of the PV in that area and that leaves the British Isles in a cooler W or WNW'ly flow with some quite cold air not far away from Shetland. Switching to the Northern Hemisphere view, here's the same time: The PV has cleared Canada but is sitting to the north of Russia/Scandinavia closer to the Pole with enough residual energy back over Greenland to prevent heights. Further into FI and a lobe of energy sheers off and heads south sending the trough down right over the British Isles so colder unsettled conditions would return: Not entirely unsupported by the GEFS but a strong cluster wants to keep the PV over Canada/Greenland by the end of the month. We've talked about the next warming due in 10 days or so - the 10HPA profile enters March looking like this: If the next warming is the one that really shreds the PV - fine - I'm not surprised to see no immediate tropospheric response and as Ian F suggested the other day, maybe it won't have an impact but it's too early to make that call. However, as that's outside the range of most publicly-available modelling (bar CFS), we won't know for a week or so but I've seen little to change my overall view though GFS OP's traditional FI tease this morning might not be wholly improbable. We're done with cold for now but we're not done with cold - I think it unlikely we'll see anything before the very end of the month and I maintain three weeks in the new pre-spring pattern before the impact of the next warming (and the traditional lag) offers the next opportunity for something more amplified. I also think a prolonged N'ly outbreak is the form horse rather than anything from the East and while lowland snow options will be limited, for those with altitude and those further north, there's plenty of time for significant snow through March and nothing I've seen so far suggests the possibility and even the probability of a renewed wintry outbreak early next month isn't on the table.
    2 points
  39. Beautiful, Knocker. I'm looking forward to an early Spring. GEFS mean anomaly is also going for mild mild mild. I may be seeing 14 degrees in a few weeks, which would be spectacular. One can't help but feel that if a turn around in model output is coming, it will manifest if the 6-8 day range, rather than looking into the depths of FI. It would be a little too simple to be able to countdown Spring from 15 days out :-)
    2 points
  40. If the QBO fails to reverse again then a lot of people are going to be left wondering quite where we go from here. National debt, hard Brexit and climate chaos - and with ISIL not far away. Truly it would be time to head for the hills....
    2 points
  41. So its "Snow people" now, and not snowmen,.................... And people still wonder, how could brexit and trump ever have happened ..lol.
    2 points
  42. There! there!,it's nice to see people getting out about looking for snow and posting some piccies although it has been a pretty dismal winter here,i managed to get out and head up to Warncliffe woods,and surrounding areas of Bolsterstone and are only a few miles from me so here are my pics from today,ok the snow wasn't deep but it will be memorable as my dog and daughter had fun,and me too Warncliffe woods a wood nere Bolsterstone and my dog and daughter having fun,before the drive back home. P.S,will we have another blast at the end of the month?,watch this space and in the meantime,enjoy spring next week.
    2 points
  43. I'll be haunting this thread till early March, then I go into my semi-hibernation mode. Loving the extremes I tend to post less when they're less possible. March can be a funny month, even more so down here with some large variations in temps. I've had mid twenties in early March and also a few ice days, for the UK even with that moderating effect of the sea around its still possible to get some good snow, its more about getting the right synoptics. Of course there are certain things you can't have this late, inversions aren't going to happen and easterlies from the Continent unless they come in tow with a PV chunk injecting deep cold into the circulation won't deliver. The best sourced air generally as you head into early March is from the ne/n, the thing of course with any northerlies at this stage is you don't get stuck with showers just on windward coasts, inland convection normally kicks in. In March timing is quite important, I remember when I was still living in West Sussex we had a few northerlies and some heavy convective snow showers which managed to last long enough towards evening, then clear skies saw temps drops quickly preserving the snow. Of course if you have low dew points a decent snow cover can last in the shade during the day so as much as we'd all have preferred to see some good snow in the heart of winter, we can't turn the clock back and can just hope for something interesting late Feb/early March.
    2 points
  44. Close on 4 years now without more than 1cm of snow that lasted more than an hour, utterly depressing!
    2 points
  45. Not quite as dramatic as @Northern Strath's, but a few snaps taken on a walk from Slochd back to Carrbridge via Sluggan. ~2C, fairly calm and dry but overcast. Sun only broke through very briefly, mainly over the hills in the distance.
    2 points
  46. 6 weeks today British summer time will be back
    2 points
  47. Cool but pleasant here today with outbreaks of sunshine after a low of -3c Sitting here bored and waiting on the rugby so here's a few from yesterday's dog walking up glen affric. The place always reminds me of camping with the family as a nipper and that great Weir's Way episode where it snows like hell all over wee Tom and his bunnet, a time when winters really kicked your erse not this tame stuff we get now
    2 points
  48. Officially gave up on snow, probably the earliest ever, my interests have turned to early spring warmth, this winter has been sooooooooo bad.
    1 point
  49. Had bitter winters in the past in the UK, but things are warming up here too.
    1 point
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