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Showing content with the highest reputation on 24/12/16 in all areas
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Well...well...well.... what better chart to see me off for Christmas. Won't be posting for a couple of days as it's Christmas and it's time for my family to have my undivided attention. Merry Christmas every single one of you fantastic people. I sincerely hope you all have a good one. I'm happy with this!! Ho ho ho WOW WHAT A THING OF BEAUTY31 points
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Merry Xmas everyone So reviewing the last 24hr Yesterday evening inc pub run Joe B's, Judah Cohen and Michael Ventrice and others tweet they are all in agreement about us entering a cold period come the start of Jan. More colder blocked options appearing on 18z Ens so not over until the fat lady sings (she has been back stage for 6 weeks now) SM reminds folks it all low amplitude stuff so more Amps required to lighten things up Pub run ends with discussion over if we can gets snow in Saraha we can get it here. Morning Not a good start to the day from Gfs, its pretty much cancelled even the toppler! Folks reminded wet wind mild for Christmas day, mother in laws can be visited. However ECM is more amplified and 192 is an improvement on GFS and its clear from the start ECM wants to be in the spot light today, it’s a cracker with reinforced Atlantic amplification thanks to our Canadian friends Mr Vortex At 144T UKMO has pretty good vortex split and more like ECM. GFS has picked up an idea and dropped it , wearing flip flops again not joining the party. Afternoon Not a lot of discussions as folks start their Christmas shopping. 6z is slightly more amplified, moving towards ECM is it going to join the party. Up to new year high pressure will bring a quiet end to the year with variable cloud. Unsettled, often cold start to the New Year to start but for how long brief northerlies or something better. GFS 12z shows interest deep into FI (T240) and discussions around wether BBC is bias. Evening (pre pub run) Eyes down for ECM ECM 12 z boom chart for 3/1 T264 would be epic unstable cold airstream incoming on ECM , the building blocks will all charts show a flip. Would the ECM even in FI give us anything better the ice on the car ? GEFS support some more tilt NE which could support more of the good stuff (snow) Day 10 indicate sight of more amplification towards Greenland is feasible. Cold 4/10 (2 for potential and is 3/1/17 the new buzz word) Key today ‘potential’ not 'sustained' and more amplification required Hansom, pretty models (end November) became Scumbag faggot , punk into December but bells ring out for Christmas day. what will GFS show us tomorrow ?29 points
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Well, folks, I guess, what with all the models in agreement - Snowmageddon is nigh - it's time bid you all good night, a merry Christmas and a happy New Year...All we need hope for now, is that Santa doesn't make a return visit and take back our meteorologic presents...24 points
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Wouldn't it be ironic if we got a very cold spell in early January when all the background signals are poor! In early December all the background signals were great and we ended up with a three week Euro Slug. Its the last time I listen to all that MJO, zonal wind, Strats, QBA, etc nonsense, in the 1960's all that waffle didn't exist we just had the BDC............Bloody Damn Cold! Andy21 points
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21 points
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Last evening I said I would do a more detailed post so here goes. Picking up really on what ba posted above about changes he sees. The 6-10 anomaly charts have differences with one another although the GFS and NOAA 6-10 are more alike than the ECMWF version. They both keep a fairly flat contour flow across the Atlantic. ECMWF looks more like the NOAA 8-14 output. The question this poses is which version of these charts will be proven to be right. I usually tend to take the NOAA outputs before the other two when there are differences but this is not always the case. Over the past 2 years as each model has been ‘tweaked’ there are a number of times when the EC-GFS outputs IF they are similar show marked wave length changes before NOAA does, be it shortening or lengthening them, and they turn out to be nearer the upper flow in that time scale. Perhaps the differences show over the past 12 hours or so are to do with any colder outbreak being a short lived one. In all honesty I do not know. I would suggest that during the first week of January a colder flow (from the NW) will develop over the UK and western Europe. How long that lasts is probably beyond the ability provided by the anomaly charts. I sometimes look at the NAEFS output and have been known to use the 30 mb temperature chart for some idea beyond the 14 day time scale. Also looking at the GFS MJO output. All these links are given below, apart from the 30 mb temperature chart which I cannot find, but this was posted last evening if you scroll back. So a waiting game but with some real hope of at least a few days for cold lovers in early 2017. ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NAEFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=6&map=1&runpara= GFS MJO http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml finally found the 30 mb temperature chart http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/21 points
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Merry Christmas to everyone on Netweather and for all the coldies, let's hope for a wintry early 2017..we sure deserve some luck!20 points
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Looking at todays output and a few things are clear to me. What does not seem likely is a sustained block towards Greenland and as a consequence we are unlikely to see prolonged, deep cold. More likely is a 3 day N/NE,ly before turning less cold. At this stage I don't expect much snowfall for my location due to the flow from the N,ly not being sustained enough. However on the bright side the less cold period appears shortived as further cold outbreaks from the N/NW seem likely. Overall im pleased because an unsettled, often cold start to the New Year is far better than the boring weather pattern we have seen this month.18 points
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I think we the models will firm up on what to expect at the beginning of 2017 in the next 48 hrs would not be surprised to see some Stella runs in the next few days, Just like to take this opportunity to wish Paul,all the team,and all the gang on here a Great Christmas. C.S18 points
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This is the chart I want to see. Not very often in tandum do you get a huge Canadian Pacific High and Canadian Atlantic/ Maritime high. The Arctic cold wave can then only escape via the Euro / Asian route. If it holds, expect some real winter cold in early days of January 2017, including the British Isles. C17 points
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Last one from me tonight. I've been santa and laid out all the kids presents but wanted to check out the ecm ens averages. A real sight of beauty on the t240 chart. Again as always draw a line from us to Alaska. On the east side we had the pv and low pressures on the west upstream, we have the pressures at 1015 or above and no pv to speak of. A classic high delivering chart imho.16 points
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Says it all really. The perpetual phasing of the cold/warm air within the long wave pattern with the strength of the energy emitted upstream (strong jet) neutralizing any permanent block and limiting the UK to cold incursions from Pm NWs which may of course include brief northerlies as systems track E/NE Down checking on Sidney earlier and he was just digging up his winter store. Be afraid; be very afraid.15 points
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And here she is!!! -12 nearly there and -16c not out the question thereafter, with December North sea temps and low heights, thundersnow and huge PPN rates a strong possibility.14 points
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There's no denying that GFS was pretty dreadful, however the ECM has definitely lifted spirits with a really encouraging run, albeit into the unreliable time-frame. The evolution between 216 and 240 shows a renewed push of heights back towards the west of Greenland and if there was a 264 it would possibly have shown an NE/ENE'ly. Of course at this range there's no point in looking at the detail, but it's nice to see anyway So typical of the GFS to spot a trend then drop it just as the other models start to agree with it. Anyway, it's only the weather and it's Christmas after all! As my Christmas festivities begin today I will unfortunately not be getting on here for the next few days (although I might manage a quick post party 2.00am perusal) so I just want to wish you all a very merry Christmas and happy New Year. Finally, extra special thanks must go to the mods who have to control the unruly rabble that makes up this weird and wonderful place.14 points
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ECM........! Sorry mods first boooom of the season!!! Excellent ecm !!!11 points
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11 points
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Looking at 850's 10 days out is a waste of time except for a bit of fun. It isn't about the day 10 chart anyway, it is about what is around the corner from that chart if it verified. We actually couldn't wish for a much better chart if we want cold and snow in early January as that trough would dig SE and winds swing NE with - 8/12 uppers, snow and ice days pretty much a certainty from there.10 points
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10 points
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Can't believe I'm commenting on a D16 chart but hey it's Christmas - There's a trend developing here and I like it. It's the trend where each attempt at the northerly gets better and better until BOOOOOOOOOOM!!9 points
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9 points
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Yes Marcus but note the ridge coming off ne America - that's going to retrogress the pattern again - and it does !9 points
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Another cracking run from ecm so a happy boy tonight am I. Remember folks this was always set to get going the beginning of jan which is at the moment still fi so just the trends folks just the trends !9 points
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Awesome Xmas present from the ECM! It may be gone by tomorrow morning but let's just enjoy it tonight.8 points
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8 points
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18z GFS fi is my ideal and most stress free way of getting a big Easterly in, i wish that the run went further because you would see something special but more importantly i hope it verifies.7 points
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Cannot believe it's Christmas day already tomorrow,that year went fast it's been a fascinating four years of model watching for me in here and may it continue i just would like to wish everyone including the net team a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year now back to the models gfs 18z is slightly less amplified at 180hrs but more amplified off the eastern seaboard.7 points
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Well maybe there is a Santa? Today's 12z model output has certainly been a great boost to those of us who like a taste of winter with the chance of seeing some white stuff! Nice to see the GEFS 12z 850 hPa tables ending the run with just 2 or 3 members out of 20 with positive 850 temps for London and 50% with temps below -5C. Let's hope the 18z keeps up the festive cheer!7 points
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Now there's a very nice 240hr chart from ECM That could easily evolve into something formidable given a split vortex and the bulk of the energy on the Eurasian side of the globe. One to watch - and BTW Merry Christmas to you all whatever the weather!7 points
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The roundest high on record? So far this and the UKMO 12z are the only sources of much cheer from the 12z runs so far, the latter much more seriously of course. MJO products don't match some of the recent analysis (e.g. by Nick F yesterday) at all with the supposed eastward propagating Pacific wave so who knows what's really going on. Time to go and restore my merriness7 points
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7 points
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Uk meto is pretty good imho and gem is half decent. ecm is rolling out and at t192 is a cracker singing perfectly to tune. The only fly is gfs and I am wondering whether it's right or just isn't seeing a key event. Tbh gfs is bloody awful is keeps the pv intact etc with only pm incursion likely. Ecm though very good7 points
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On behalf of everyone here at Netweather, I'd like to wish everyone on the community a very Merry Christmas. I hope you have a fantastic time6 points
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6 points
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The synoptics are really starting to get into the Christmas Spirit now, maybe we will have a New Years resolution from the weather models to provide us with lots of snow for a change, in early January ! Ho Ho Ho! Merry Christmas and a Snowy New Year to one and all.6 points
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6 points
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The later 00z gefs are not without interest froom a cold pov as already been mentioned. A cold easterly on the control run and a decent mean Ht anomaly chart for such a possibility At least current outputs are trending towards a more amplified NH pattern towards NY so more opportunities for this sort of evolution will show.6 points
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Then my alarm clock went off. Lol love that to be right though:)6 points
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For the first time in a few suites, the eps have stopped retrogressing the Atlantic mean anomoly (both heights and mslp) in the 8/12 day period. a small shift ese from yesterday's 12z. The euro heights drop and join up is therefore shifted a little se away from the uk in that timescale. Is this the beginning of a movement towards the GEFS? they have moved a bit towards the eps in the latter stages re the lowering of euro heights somewhat. however, they seem keen on a sceuro high anomoly again later on, though getting much further north than we have seen thus far. note the ECM op 00z was pretty good in expect of the mean output from yesterday's 12z EDIT: the eps run continues in a similar vein to yesterday's output, the scrussian low anomoly backing west across Europe but not quite as far west and south in w Europe as the in conjunction with the mid Atlantic high being a bit less amplified and slightly further east. Heights over France end the run with no indication high or low. That's a worry - we already know that given the chance the euro heights have proven resilient thus far. of course if you look at the eps v GEFS, one has an Atlantic upper ridge and one a scandi by day 15, blend the two together .................5 points
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Oh such a familiar story ... GFS picks up a cold pattern, then as the other models latch onto the idea the GFS drops it (and the ens largely drops it too). Atlantic height rises in such situations are very precarious. Something colder looks likely but low level snow still requires a lot to happen ... if that's what you're looking for, best not to look beyond T168 too much right now, except if living in the world of dreams is your goal!5 points
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I imagine everybody is conversant with the expected weather tomorrow but if not a wet wind and mild day is expected everywhere as the effects of storm Conor are felt. the exception will be the north west where it will become very windy later and overnight.with gusts in the 80mph range. Listening to the shipping forecast these last couple of days and the not infrequent use of violent storm 11 is a reminder of those who happen to be at sea, The anomalies were discussed yesterday evening and there is no significant change this morning in the ten day range so on to the det. run Once we get Conor out of the way a familiar scenario ensues with ridge amplifying over the UK and the upper trough edging east and deconstructing so by mid week we find the cut off upper low on it's way to north west Africa and the positively tilted European trough also about to deconstruct. From here the HP bows under intense pressure from energy emitted from the intense vortex and via mainland North America, combining on a very strong jet from the WSW, and slips SE which allows fronts from the west to impact the west and north west bringing rain with the south continuing to remain fairly dry It is at this point that the plunging Arctic airmass over N. America sets off another amplification wave and ridges quickly build in the western Atlantic and travels east whilst another burst of energy travels east over the top before descending into Europe, Now that sounds familiar. A quick summation. The HP more or less in charge until the end of the week with the south being the main beneficiary as it slips SE The west and north west remain more susceptible to the frontal systems encroaching from the west. Temps pretty variable around the average.5 points
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Evening all- no change from the earlier post- Near zero chances of a greenland high in the near term ( sub day 12 ) thereafter - possibilites depending on how slow the strat zonal jet gets & if we get any decent wave break forcing from the trop, however to be fair this winter ive seen page after page littered with MJO this & that when in reality its added very little to overall hemispheric proceedings - especially in our neck of the woods... I take little notice of it now unless there is something major within the forecast- which hasnt been the case - all very low amplitude stuff.. S5 points
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My kitten-cat (I don't how he's weather-related exactly?) is a bit of a nutter: He(?) likes food that I throw across the room, attacks my feet, and licks the skin off my scalp when I'm meant to be asleep...But he'll make a wonderful companion! PS: I've just discovered that he's afraid of my Celtic drum!5 points
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I know where you are going wrong. You should play Mogwai's track 'Mogwai Fear Satan'. That is a beast of track. No need for the whole album. If you are seasonal then you could play the track 'Like Herod'. I've seen a cat jump vertically from sleep when the guitars kick and after a quiet lull. This was not intentional! It was been a 'normal' windy day here. Got lively on occasion and peaked about 3pm but nothing out of the ordinary. Our ginger tom Beaker passed away a few months ago due to cancer at only 4 years old.The Xmas present my wife & I have got for each other is a rescue cat called Luka. Best Xmas present ever. He seems to be settling in quite well. It will be nice to have my rain alarm back as Beaker used to punch his cat flap on repeat in disgust!5 points