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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/12/16 in all areas

  1. For clarity GFS 12z gives cold christmas eve, mild start for Christmas day turning colder after 9/10am for majority supporting charts attached. Subject to change of course. A simple 'temps will rise this week', is not correct as we would be at 20c by christmas day. 3pm Christmas Eve 9am Christmas Day Midnight Christmas Day 3pm Christmas Eve 9am Christmas Day Midnight Christmas Day
    36 points
  2. Just for a bit of fun, it is worth mentioning that winter isn't over. In fact by one measure it hasn't even begun! The astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2016 and ends on 19 March 2017. Winter doesn't start for two days!
    27 points
  3. Assuming by 'Christmas' you mean at least Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day (rather than the traditional twelve days of Christmas) this is still a pretty wild comment, if I may be so bold. There's nothing 'very mild' about the 24th: Nor the 25th: Nor indeed the 26th:
    24 points
  4. That's an anomaly chart showing 2-4 C above average. Still probably cold for west Russia and Eastern Europe. luckily January looks colder, don't lose your winter coat just yet Sidney, you might freeze your knockers off!
    19 points
  5. In the first place it's too early to say what 'will' be happening and in the second place there is absolutely nothing whatsoever 'very mild' about those T850 hPa upper air temps I posted up. With the -5C dam consistently over large swathes of the country on the 24th, 25th and 26th it will also feel bitterly cold in the biting north-westerly wind, which will often be at gale force on exposed parts. There's a curious phenomenon about weather. When we're sitting under one set of conditions we easily forget what it's like when it changes. The end of this week is going to bring a bit of a shock to the system.
    18 points
  6. That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....
    14 points
  7. 14 points
  8. Wow - on the basis of a long range forecast for several weeks of 'above average temperatures being slightly more likely than below average temperatures' you are going to write of the whole the winter for any cold and snow - amazing.
    12 points
  9. Yes, Atlantic ridging, something the Met Office are hinting at. 06z finishes with this mouth watering result. Yes, I know it is at the very edge of FI, but lovely to look at and dream all the same.
    12 points
  10. In the relatively reliable time span the MetO forecast for Glenshee Ski Centre (which I'm pretty positive is for the lowest part of the ski area, at the summit of the road) has the temperature only rarely and briefly breaking 0C from tomorrow through to Sunday. Any snow that falls on the Scottish hills this week is either likely to stick, or be blown off.
    11 points
  11. Well, very low confidence...!! As expected. We will see whether ECMWF Monthly this evening keeps banging the blocked drum, or switches and offers the much more mixed signals of GloSea5 (slowly progressive, some blocking, but ensembles unconvincing re ultimate outcome). Dominant signal for remainder of winter (albeit as previously discussed, a divergence in ECMWF & GloSea5 output) is for broadly +ve avg temps (some colder phases possible); +ve NAO (mostly, with possible exception part of Jan) and SPV remaining stronger now. Broad GloSea5 pattern ultimately favours high pressure to S of UK, helping perhaps to keep things drier overall but there's equal probabilistic weighting on +ve/-ve PPN anomalies. December Contingency Planners doc offers further context.
    10 points
  12. Now I have a little aptitude test for you ..... "Which of the patterns in the grid matches the pattern in the image shown below it? You have two minutes to answer this question." Yes... It's a trick question. The answer is "None of them". The grid shows the GFS ensembles for the 19th December as modelled on the 9th December. One or two of the postage stamps have the current high and low pressure systems in roughly the right place but most of the other details of today's actual setup are misplaced, or missing altogether. However, It seems to me that the weather generated on the ground would not have been vastly different in reality if many of the possible solutions had actually occurred, so the GFS was, broadly speaking, barking up the right tree. This is how I imagine the 10 day model predictions should be seen - likely to be in the right ballpark with the correct teams playing but with no idea what the actual score will be on the night....
    10 points
  13. Hmmm Posted Friday at 00:20 EC MONTHLY: again like last run. Blocked & dry anomalies developing 1st half Jan as heights move W to north of UK. Colder than avg anomalies southern UK 2nd week Jan (not seen that signal for a while!). East-NE flow. So continuity between last runs and ditto with GloSea5. Don't shoot messenger. Just describing the output: not making any comment on outcome. 81 people like this -- GFS 06hrs somewhat advertising this...
    10 points
  14. You know things are bad when charts from 46/47 and 62/63 start to get rolled out.
    9 points
  15. I was responding to the comment that Christmas will be 'very mild.' According to the current models it's simply not true.
    9 points
  16. Agreed: available evidence including this evening's ECMWF Monthly leans more towards +ve MSLP anomalies initially to our SE, then migrating west to sit just west of and across the UK through early to mid-Jan, with accompanying below avg ppn anomalies and broadly +ve temp anomalies. Looks promisingly more settled versus the next few days; rather similar to last week's run but without any 'colder blocking' evident in the pattern, at least on face value. I've only had a cursory look at the output however: will examine all the 4 week stamps & clusters later, when more time available.
    8 points
  17. It should be noted that even last winter there was chances. Just December 2015 largely skewed our perception on the overall winter. There will be chances don't write the winter off yet.
    8 points
  18. One minute people are saying LRFs are gospel and so winter's over, next minute people are saying what's the point of spending money on LRFs because they can't be trusted! Come on guys make your mind up!
    8 points
  19. -5C 850hPa upper pushing much further south on this run on Christmas Eve, now touching much of the country. Going to need to wrap up warm in those winds for any last minute shopping. Brrrrr.
    8 points
  20. This is going to be a nightmare for forecasters given the low won't be forming till Thursday GFS Para 00z Maybe some back edge snow in the north and west Plenty of changes ahead in the coming days no doubt
    8 points
  21. Well, well at last Low-res/FI GFS op update showing more interest for coldies as major amplification upstream takes place, leading to ridge north over UK and Norwegian Sea, then into a Scandi High - which is less reliant on a troughing undercut across SW Europe from the Atlantic but more reliant on cold pool dropping down across Russia into Europe. However, with no height rises over the pole not sure how this cold so easily gets pushed down from the arctic into Europe. I was thinking yesterday that it's been a long time since GFS or ECM gave coldies some eye-candy ... so long overdue. But being the depths of FI and no strong teleconnections signals other than GFS creeping into low amplitude 7/8 MJO phase, not sure this will appear again next few runs. Otherwise in the reliable, 06z GFS op another conveyor belt of deep lows in high res - bombarding the UK with little respite between. One on Friday, which could be the second-named storm of the season (Barbara), then perhaps Conor on Xmas day. More lining up next week to make a move across the N Atlantic, though hopefully as suggested on a more northerly track. Although Xmas Day low still looks worse for winds on GFS ops, Friday night's storm still needs to monitoring, as the models may not have the correct handle on depth and pressure gradients yet at this range, Friday's low could turn out deeper than Xmas day's low, certainly 00z EC was hinting at this. Strong 200mph+ jet and a lot unusually warm air being drawn into these lows emerging off eastern seaboard sourced from SE USA and Bahamas are a recipe for rapid intensification if phasing is favourable. Given the v. strong W/NW flow in wake of Xmas day's low, should be less modification at the surface of air sourced from a frigid southern Greenland and Labrador than a lighter flow, so we may see snow get to lower levels in the NW in the evening when the cold air kicks in. Certainly blizzard conditions for the Highlands I imagine.
    8 points
  22. How often do models predict warm and it turns out cold ? The GFS 18z on 9th dec had -8c uppers over kent yesterday You can see SM frustration as the snow shovel had been bought.
    7 points
  23. Will we ever get rid of heights to our S?? I'm reading Fergie's post and thinking maybe it's just one of those winters! No matter what happens output wise, that HP to our S emerges triumphant.
    7 points
  24. 7 points
  25. So why headline a post and make the comments you have (in your normal manner) when the post to me seems quite an objective one?
    7 points
  26. It's quite funny looking at the yellows and oranges on the above chart how they can paint a picture of mildsville. Yet on closer impection i would love to live in a country that has above average temperatures of -12. Perfect for roasting those horse chestnuts on xmas day
    7 points
  27. Good to see that even your silver linings are getting (pardon the pun) thin on the ground, Karl... That said, the GFS in FI, together with the MetO's latest updates are looking increasingly optimistic...We have of course been there before!
    7 points
  28. I'm supposed to be driving from Inverness to the far NW of Sutherland on Christmas morning. I think I'll be bringing camping stove, food, flask, shovel, large saws, ropes.... A few years ago did this and it was ferocious driving along by Loch Stack, sheets of water coming off the loch reducing visibility. When I reached the destination we said 'oh it's not so bad here'... then were physically unable to get out the passenger side of the car because of the wind!
    7 points
  29. Gfs is more progressive with its cold air on Christmas Eve. Colder and more precip = more snow
    7 points
  30. Before we have the 10th winters over post on 19 dec lets see what the GFs 18z brings Lets see how much PM we can get in the next week, rather then worry about March just yet.
    6 points
  31. THankyou again for your input Ian. The way I see it we unless the ecmwf monthly backs glosea5 tonight we will have the two best lrf tools in the world going in somewhat different directions , yet presumably from very similar initial data. I think what people need to understand is that both of these systems are still to a certain extent experimental and this is perhaps not made enough of when the the likes of John Hammond do their presentations on the BBC website.. There is no doubt now that the December part of the forecast is completely blown. Yes some may argue that there was blocking but when you go out of your way to say that the blocking will be in a position to bring more easterly or northerly outbreaks with an increased risk of ice and snow and in fact the blocking brings you a mild Dec running some 2.c above normal then one has to see it for what it is. This is not to attack he Meto office or Ian or John Hammond in any way because I have the utmost respect for the organisation and those that work in it .THe meto and ecmwf are least trying to push the science forward. But just to say that we are nowhere near where we need to be yet to make consistently accurate seasonal forecasts..
    6 points
  32. For any new members on here It is not F1 - that's motor racing It is FI - please don't be confused between the two
    6 points
  33. Yep, latest ecm agrees with this. Another winter down the pan!
    6 points
  34. If we assume for arguments sake that mild is above 0 850s then this shows quite nicely that the mild interludes are quite small and quickly reverted back to normal pm or rpm air. Btw this is from the 12z ens for southern England
    6 points
  35. Just looking at the coming few days and a real pickup in the Atlantic jet is already showing it's hand upstream with the first shot of colder air hitting Scotland by Wednesday.Rain with strong to gale westerlies and quite extensive snowfall for the Highland region by the looks. These unsettled conditions then extending south through the week. We can see on the gfs for Friday the 2 lows one close to north west Scotland and the next one due to arrive Christmas day just leaving Newfoundland-just look at the strong jet all the way across fed by cold flow off the Arctic Canadian/Greenland area coming south into the milder Atlantic air. During the transient spells of polar air it will feel quite chilly everywhere with snowfall showing up across higher ground in Scotland and some other northern areas from time to time. A very mobile pattern at least until beyond Christmas is now looking odds on with severe weather warnings quite likely for gales from those 2 lows as we get closer to the time.
    6 points
  36. Such strong Greenland highs are a common trait of NWP trying to model mslp at 3000m high on the Greenland plateau! So surface pressure maps over Greenland don't truly reflect the pressure over the plateau, rather they reflect the frigid cold air on the plateau. If the temperature changes on the plateau the pressure maybe a lot lower the next day. The 960mb seemingly so nearby is actually more accurately depicted as the low is over open ocean/ sea level. In an ideal world, NWP should blank out the mslp lines around mountain ranges and plateaus such as Alps and Greenland respectively.
    6 points
  37. well looks like first low on GFS is some 150 miles further north , but at 4 days plus still time for change ,Secnd low not updated yet but think this one will be the more active one .I was a bit disappointed with this mornings ecm but at this range it could be all change this evening ,perhaps Met off update soon can shed some light on medium range outlook ,medium as in 7/10 days ,will be interesting If they still mention high to our west , crikey what a roller coaster ,hope we can get a few cold shots soon ,cheers ,
    6 points
  38. 00z EC suggests the deep low modelled passing north of Scotland Friday night looks like it could pack more of a punch across the north and west than the Christmas Day low, as the latter is further north in track. Long way off, but could be quite wintry across the north and northwest Xmas evening/night where we have the showers - as colder polar air filters in from the west. Frosty elsewhere. So looks like we could see a white Xmas in the north in terms of falling snow.
    6 points
  39. Yep. Don't want people to be looking for Lewis Hamilton at the end of the GFS 18Z. I know its bad but not that bad lol.
    5 points
  40. I think the "very low confidence" bit of Ians post just highlights how futile LRF can be. Lets just wait and see what unfolds before coming to any firm judgements.
    5 points
  41. Just hoping that met office modeling of high pressure setting up to our West in new year is correct ,computers may be saying high to West but it could rear it's head further east and south as a SLUG ,oh how I hate SLUGS ,or they could be on the ball and hopefully we can see a link up to our north ,time will tell ,cheers
    5 points
  42. Never fear frosty, winter will fight back, I can feel it in my bones!
    5 points
  43. Ay Nick, its a long time we have seen a chart like that. Probably would end up with a potent Easterly. However, as you say its a long way off and you real cold starved fans in Blighty will be very wary to get excited at this time, especially having been lead down the garden path so many times this past few winters. Shorter term, the Festive Period forecasting must be causing a bit of headache in getting it spot on, even in this daily time span. C
    5 points
  44. Yes 6z much better in FI as the high ridges to scandy, i fear its a mirage but coldies really do deserve a change of fortune!
    5 points
  45. Bit worried about this so I honestly hope it downgrades. Noticed that Joe B is calling for a 2/3 week mild spell in the east across the pond and thereafter, from about the 15th January, getting hit with cold again. If it does indeed relent for 2/3 weeks over there, what would that mean for us over here I wonder? Will have to keep a close eye on this now as a couple of local male relatives were supposed to be going across to Edinburgh to family for Christmas dinner. Forecasted winds as they are at present would close the bridge for sure. I may end up with a couple more at my table. (It's a man thing, they wouldn't be able to cope!} Erm........that is the second large flock of geese I have seen this morning flying back to where they set off from in October? ( I know they are the same ones because they are still wearing their flip-flops and sunglasses!)
    5 points
  46. Once again it's a Meh kind of morning. Yesterday temps stayed very steady around the 11c mark even into late evening. At least I don't have to put the heating on during the day and we only had one small fire on last night. I am watching the charts and forecasts avidly for the weekend. Both XC and Metcheck are forecasting gusts of 80+ mph on Christmas day. Baaaaaaad! Just as we are sitting down to our Christmas dinners....... off goes the power! Nae roasters! I'll just need to make do with mashers instead! If that's the worst that happens I'll be quite happy. I may sound flippant but I'm really rather concerned, so I'd best get off and check out the battery situation and get my oil lamps cleaned, trimmed and fillled ready for use!
    5 points
  47. 5 points
  48. First thing to say this morning is that the GFS is making no concessions to the position adopted by the ecm last evening so this morning's ecm run is not without interest. The problem area as far as the UK is concerned remains the complex vortex Canada/Greenland which is generating upper troughs via the Canadian vortex swinging south east across North America and tracking east on the jet or breaking off from Greenland and even phasing the two. The upshot of all this is according to the GFS we are still looking at two nasty looking depressions at the end of the week and over the weekend and it doesn't get any better after that. The second depression is looking particularly nasty with possible gusts up to 90kts over Scotland. And the GEFS anomaly is also making no concessions to the ecm and basically supports the det run which it should do at this range
    5 points
  49. Some great posts tonight and a great read, seems the models are really struggling with the energy coming from the Atlantic whipping up some nasty lows. Ecm is short term pain for long term gain. Giving us a mildish Xmas once again but on a positive shows ridging towards Iceland and maybe giving us some proper cold in January. Gfs wants to blow away the UK on Xmas but with PM mixed in giving many a chance of the holy grail of winter, the fabled but elusive white Christmas but afterwards firmly puts the Atlantic storm train back in charge and flattening any potential ridging. It's a hard choice but I am rooting for the GFS. I am with Frosty and dreaming.
    5 points
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