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Netweather will be gathering a choir made from members to sing the forums version of 12 days of Christmas. (in this case 7 days) On the first day of Christmas my true love said to me: A cold long fetch Easterly On the second day of Christmas my true love said to me: Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly On the third day of Christmas my true love said to me: Three channel lows Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly On the fourth day of Christmas my true love said to me: Four whiteouts Three channel lows Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly On the fifth day of Christmas my true love said to me: Five snow ploughs Four whiteouts Three channel lows Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly On the sixth day of Christmas my true love said to me: Six wild goose chases Five snow ploughs Four whiteouts Three channel lows Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly On the seventh day of Christmas my true love said to me: Seven swans a skating Six wild goose chases Five snow ploughs Four whiteouts Three channel lows Two undercuts and a cold long fetch Easterly

Had a week off from models - positive NAO brings out the very best and very worst of times. 10 days in and our front loaded cold forecast looks shot to pieces, given winter is DJF - then you can continue to split hairs on is this 01 Dec > 15 Jan etc. For me no cosying up or denial, stuff is wrong. The vortex intensification is wild and blocking via ensembles and longer range outlook is still there! Completely off the hook.. few things about the forecast I want to call out and really they are quite simple.. Wildcards - we have them - the QBO easterly shear zones have switched within the last Vortex Intensification period, that Solar NAO caveat is in everyones face right now. MJO - Indian Ocean is like cinema and popcorn just now ( includes cyclones). Seasonal and Agency modelling... huge questions, you write a forecast then have a theory and look for support - 4 months of ECM consistency, UKMO support and no other models in strong disagreement. Then. Whooosh. If that's not a Wildcard winter then I dont know.. For front loaded cold am still halfway point is mid Jan, I don't care to finesse the forecast any further. It's a rotten start but I genuinely feel not the full story this winter. It's only 10 Dec. Will review all on appropriate thread later.

Right, I'm gonna break the rules myself just to say, Mods, break out the 'ban hammers' cos I'm fed up of trawling through dross in this thread. One liners, mild or not mild arguments, to BBQ or not BBQ etc. There's been enough warnings already, time to get tough or its going to be a very long winter irrespective of what the weather brings.

+2. I expect many more as well Its one of those times when its hard to keep adding new information as we are stuck in something of a rut at the moment, which in itself is a statement of the obvious However, what is clear is that this winter is already looking like one where a route to a cold pattern, this side of the pole requires the following to happen 1) Return to tropical/extra tropical feedbacks that characterised a lot of the autumn - which links to: 2) A +ve atmospheric angular state which provides a tropospheric amplification mechanism to promote wave breaking into the stratosphere alongside both the feedbacks from the SCE (Snow cover extent below 60N) and the Kara sea negative ice anomaly which enhance the Siberian High, amplify the Jetstream in the troposphere, weaken the polar vortex and destabilise (warm) the stratosphere Without an atmospheric circulation that is conducive to downstream amplification, then the Siberian feedbacks are neutralised. This, through the type of low angular momentum pattern we have started heading into which favours strengthened, flatter polar jet, steepened gradient created through cold air out of Canada/US > Western Atlantic and inability to amplify northwards any downstream heights in the European sector. The current steep descent in relative angular momentum says more about the significant extent of the atmosphere/ocean disconnect that has existed through much of the autumn than it does about how far AAM itself might actually fall. To illustrate that perspective, look at the previous steep drop on that chart shortly after the middle part of November - this was echoed by a previous large scale high amplitude Global Wind Oscillation Phase 8/0 (and back to 4) orbit .... and also coincided with the last unsettled westerly spell (incorporating Storm Angus) on 20 November. If we consider that the models are programming another ramp up of energy in the Atlantic according to another low(er) AAM phase,, then I think it is significant that the long wave pattern has adjusted westwards(discontinuous retrogression) compared to November - and the storms and their secondary developments struggling to extend as far eastwards. Assuming the atmospheric cycle can rebound again in terms of angular momentum and a return of the GWO to Phase 4/5, at the same time as the above Eurasian feedbacks seasonally beat a stronger drum imprinting stratospheric warming, then its not too difficult to see that height rises to the North and North East are quite conceivable as we head further towards and into January - naturally helped by seasonal wavelengths adjusting the synoptic pattern favourably for us We know that wQBO acts against the constructive feedbacks mentioned above through strengthening the stratospheric vortex, but we also know from other similar ENSO years that a stratospheric upper/lower disconnect is quite possible - especially where there are strong Eurasian feedbacks to assist this. At present the tropical signals continue to frustrate timing of another uptick in AAM an re-amplifying the pattern - and something of an enigma persists in terms of all the signals either contradicting or cancelling each other out. But as can be seen, all the reasoning behind the stand-off(s) as discussed are not negative, looking ahead, by any means. A switch back to a "constructive" tropical signal (in simple terms one that works in tandem with the ocean/atmosphere disconnect that helped assist the -AO profile ^^ appearing in the autumn) will still make a significant difference to the present highly underwhelming synoptic patterns by NWP - but I suspect that signal, if it is to come, now much more likely to come into the extended period radar. The "make or break" often mentioned on this thread, for me at least, effectively depends on an end to the current "destructive" interference ending sooner rather than later - so the type of virtuous cycle described above can provide a lot more to smile about as we get closer and closer to the end of 2016. Those are the facts, that is where the hope lies that luck changes accordingly. Especially as the dominant Annular Mode (whichever way) couples much more tightly by January

As usual IDO you are painting the mildest slant on what is actually shown. Perhaps if you showed the Met O values for mid December for various places and the predicted value, as has been pointed out to you, the maximum value between 12 and 1800 Z, folk could make their own mind up on the correct terminology?

Whoah.....hang about. That can't be allowed to pass unchallenged. Do you *really* think Prof Adam Scaife - and the Hadley Centre scientists - sit in their monthly Seasonal Team meeting at Exeter and stare singularly and unscientifically at UKMO output and then dismiss everything else out of some sort of 'confirmation bias'?? The Contingency Planning 3-month document (which, stress, is a *probabilistic*, not *deterministic* outlook) is based on the consensus reached at those monthly meetings and written-up shortly afterwards. At those forums, the collective output across a number of respected seasonal modelling centres is viewed comparatively with weighting applied; and detailed areas of global forcings/teleconnections discussed. This includes output made available to UKMO from ECMWF, MeteoFrance, NCEP, plus Japan/Korea/S Africa and many others. Indeed you will often see reference made in those documents to where agreement exists between GloSea5 and "other seasonal forecast agencies/models". This isn't some cursory exercise of pulling bits of CFS off the web and comparing to UKMO products: it's a rigorous piece of scientific scrutiny with a duly critical approach applied. The fact remains that as of mid Nov, excellent agreement on broadscale pattern existed between GloSea, ECMWF Seasonal and MeteoFrance-Climate. Not dissimilar output appeared in other (less highly weighted) models such as CFS. Note that at NO point did UKMO probabilistic forecasts lean to 'very cold' categorisation: merely a higher than average chance of colder than average. Anxious that certain media types would blow it all beyond proportion to ape 2010-11, Adam blogged in detail on the UKMO website to offer context to the last two 3-monthly outlooks that were issued. To suggest Adam and his team "took eye off ball" out of some deference to an in-house model firstly ignores the cross-model support available to them at the time. Secondly, it's actually quite insulting for a guy who has published or co-authored so many peer-reviewed papers in the field of seasonal to decadal forecasting; SSW's; etc etc. Whatever has gone pear-shaped so far in Dec, I'd wager Adam could explain unhesitatingly. And by the way: with cluster 1 of today's 12z ECMWF heading into building strong +ve GPH anomalies and rising MSLP above Scandinavia with a resultant easterly flow just before Christmas, it's also too early anyway to utterly dismiss what Glosea leaned to originally.

OK- so that isn't a particularly impressive block but I ask you...was the Jan 2013 block impressive in terms of absolutes? No. Also I'm highlighting it because such a scenario (with much more impressive MSLP numbers) has been floating around the GEFS for a couple of days. I genuinely do not know whether your aim on this forum is to act as forum WUM but you do sometimes convey a strong sense of wanting to be so.

I guess I'm just not seeing signs of the trough disruption necessary to get the undercut we need. It is encouraging the more pattern backs West and the stronger the block though. BREAKING NEWS The signal for Northern blocking in GFS ensembles in run up to Christmas is strengthening.

Afternoon All- well the first nineth of winter has passed & thus far apart from the x2 nights of very seasonal frosty weather at the start of the month its been all down hill from there, at the end of tomorrow we will be circa +1c above on CET & nothing in motion to stop it- I would be revising my guess ( sadly ) for this month to a landing zone of between 6-7.5 at this stage :(- Anyway, in terms of modelling the status quo is still evident with an airmass up from the south / south west / west across the next 10 days - no SE airmass? - well we get the wind 'maybe' but the airmass is a long way behind. Here is the closest the continental air gets its way back over germany - later in the week we get a smidgeon of a wave over the UK & as a result some colder polar air gets held at the surface for England into next weekend- so possibly some frost then under the inversion- Whats important to remember though from the inversion is that we can get a cold inversion & a warm one - & post next weekend we have some VERY warm air moving into Ireland & Scotland - penetrating ESE with time So that temporary cold air trapped at the surface will be mixed out- Next 7-8 days then mild/ very mild with 2 days of chill in the air. - Chances of anything better ( from the East ) less than 10%- theres no undercut or any suggestion of that developing- even todays UKMO 00z 144 that has been touted as good is infact warm & wet with no undercut. So then the rest of Dec, Im afraid I dont share Any of GPs thoughts on the high retrograde west - ( im pretty sure it was forecast to already be in the models ) but its a very low end chance for at least +9 days.. As ive posted the expectation ( for me ) is the 'burst' in 10 HPA zonal winds stratospheric will propergate downwards this week & next - with a forecast peak of approx 40 & 45 M/S - ( remember the december ave is about 30-35 across the piste. ( todays is along the upward curve @33.4M/S Is there a disconnect / non propergation - NO ! The next 7 days from 12 hours to 168 clearly shows the increased speeds propergating downwards in 60N - it would be clearer if the scaling on those were ^^ in 5 M/S not 10 ! In terms of the pattern, the vortex is modelled to be stronger & stronger, although because its come from a lowish base its still slightly displaced from its usual position but generally from our quadrent the jet is riding up over iceland & dropping back SE over central europe seen nicely here Therefor the conclusion is much the same as it was 3-5 days ago, continued westerlyness for 10-12 days at least poss longer- no retrograde ( as per some forecasts ) & no easterlies ! chances as follows: *Westerlies to day 10 or a deviation there of: 70% *Pattern backing sufficient enough pre day 10 to advect some sub <14c thetas from the SE about 20% *Snow cold arriving from an Easterly 10% Finally a word on the GLOSEA/ECM Long rangers - I as have many others have been critical of what the output was, more especially recently as they both continued to tout northern +VE pressure to the North of the UK- however in retrospect for December its done quite well- Here are the height anomalies for the first week of Dec- so with the core of the focus from Ian being that +VE anomalies would be North of the UK - you could say its been a moderate success ( so far ) whats missing - & something that maybe if it shows again we need Ian to comment on isnt so much the +VE to the North but the troffyness ( is that a word!) to the South & East as part of the forecast was to highlight westward propergation of cold air towards the UK from the East, so personally I think a score of 7/10 early doors on that one for the glosea / EC outputs.. !! Also did we get an answer from Adam S on why the seasonal models are essentially ignoring the zonal wind burst in favour of more of the same ? @fergieweather Are there any positives today, well just the one for me - the GFS ensembles ( whilst theres no mean ) have just flattened the peak of the zonal wind burst now around day 12-16 with a few members dipping off- We know the OPs have indicated a few chances of a SSW from that time so thats something to monitor over the next 48-72 hours - In terms of blocking projections- much the same, the velocity of the westerly wind will make it very difficult for any cross polar blocking & any MLBs with high wave amplitudes so no possibility of any true GH, best we get later on is slight atlantic amplification or some higher amplitude on the scandi high to force the cold west more... Low chance of a white Xmas at the moment... Cheers S @Dangerous55019 Todays CFS 00z CFS control have the peak of the zonal burst first few days of Jan then minor possible minor warmings at that timeline on both with the zonal wind dropping to November levels again second & third week of Jan - allowing the higher probability of HLBs again - S

Signs now of the blocking pattern becoming more favourable. Be in no doubt - we are in a very blocked atlantic pattern, and so far a very dry season as a result. 3 key observations tonight. Firstly MJO forecast solid. Clear shift towards 6-7-8 with no sign yet on any spoilers in the Indian Ocean. Secondly the vortex shape is also coming good. From 30hpa down to 70hpa a clear twin lobe shape forming, with consequent space for height rises to our north. 70hpa diagramme for the start of Xmas week below: But finally important to note the ongoing GEFS forecast for the GWO. This is our ENSO disconnect condition and we dont really want to see it dropping through a 1 - 3 orbit. The current forecast is set to do exactly this, but it has been one of the ongoing peculiarities of the season so far - the fact that the ENSO suggests a drop into 1 - 3 but the atmosphere refuses to follow suit. Forecast below - but evidence of the last few weeks is that the forecast may well continue to be off target. Is this what is causing such strange behaviour from the models in not picking up the signal that the big long rangers such as GLOSEA are seeing? Is that signal about to win out? Conclusion: the days of mild coming to an end as we return to a more neutral temperature profile and then look to see the block extend to the north. Modelling says NE. GP says NW. Frankly after the comments and depression on this thread over the last few days all I'm looking for is a movement north first of all. If that can happen then we can worry about the details later. Gut feeling of weeks ago that winter would start from approximately mid month - perhaps now last third - still a definite possibility.

If it's 7c outside the last thing on my mind is "shall we do a barbecue"? My missus would punch me if I made that kind of suggestion in December at such temperatures and rightly so.

No, they're the maximum temperatures for the 6 hours leading up to 6pm.

I'm not debating whether it's cold or mild, I'm correcting you when you said it was the maximum at 6pm only. And yes, I'm sure.

Where do you get that from? The vast majority of the GEFS for Christmas day show cold, dry and calm. One or two even show a few flakes of snow. The exact opposite to what you claim.

Just don't get this persistent need to bash the MetO. As gottalovethisweather's excellent post (couple of pages earlier) shows, and we see time and time again, FI got it's nickname for very good reason and anything much past days 4/5 is incredibly difficult to forecast accurately. This forum would be a starker place without Fergieweather's input and I'm amazed he remains so steadfastly generous in sharing an inside line when so often people on here (thankfully a minority) are too quick to criticise.

I think a coldish surface pattern is looking more and more likely for the Christmas period. The 3 anomaly charts I use to give an idea of the weather type are now fairly consistent with one another. That is they each show the centre of gravity of the upper high being somewhere around sw Norway 6-10 days from now. The NOAA 8-14 keeps this idea running as well. Exactly where either the upper centre and even more so the surface centre will be on any one day is not for this type of prediction. A raging Atlantic does not look likely over the Christmas period though, but the further NW one lives in the UK then the more likely to have less influence from the ridging. latest charts as usual below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Beyond that, not my area of abilaty to make much comment. Taking a look at the MJO, my simplistic approach, and the GFS version shows it with almost no effect on our upper air pattern nor does the prediction show it developing any. Both in very low amplitude.Desperately searching for some comfort for cold and snow fanciers neither the AO (predicted to go way above the zero line, nor the NAO, hovering both sides of it, give any comfort. Not surprising as neither of these are drivers, simply effects from how the models suggest upper and surface patterns are most likely to be. So, at best, on current guidance, some white frost in places for Christmas but highly unlikely in the next 14 days or so for any white to fall from the skies.

It isn't up for debate as far as I've seen IDO. However what is up for debate is the latitude the high can gain traction to, the orientation of advection on its western limb and how much falling of heights we can get across Europe. What may seem like minute, insignificant vagaries within these parameters will have large ramifications going forward towards Christmas (seeing as we're still being trop led). Given your vast expertise on all things meteorological, I'm surprised that you cannot see this?

Oh dear! I wasn't for a moment referencing the scientists in my comment; they have access to such varied output. I was talking about forum members' expectations and relying wholly on one scenario. Thanks for the very detailed reply, it has given good insight into the models the Met office use and I know how difficult it must be to try and sort out the different signals.

Can't reproduce entire meteograms from EC but here are ENS windroses for Reading, 22-23 Dec. Note (in major contrast to previous run) how whilst a SW flow quadrant (as per majority model climatology for that period) remains still the stronger signal by 23 Dec, we now have the 2nd largest - albeit oh-so-slightly - as an E'ly. Whether a wild goose chase (given recent ensemble roller coaster) or an incipient turning-point is now unfolding, we shall see. Jury out.

There is nothing strikingly different between this evening's anomalies with reference too the upstream pattern except the EPS has the Aleutian HP/vortex/troughs a tad further east. This would appear to make the difference with the ridging to the east of the UK between the EPS on the one hand and NOAA/GEFS on the other. The latter have the ridge slightly more amplified with the surface centre probably around southern Norway whilst the EPS has ridging to the south east of the UK with perhaps the centre to the south. Thus perhaps an upper flow slightly more veered than the other two and therefore systems tracking further south. It's all a bit knife edgy. As we move into the ext period there are changes upstream as the Aleutian ridge has declined except with NOAA but the vortex and trough(s) are still in rude health although the disagreement with orientation between the EPS and the GEFS is still ongoing which probably accounts for the continuing dispute vis the HP adjacent to the UK. NOAA and the GEFS are still quite amplified with positive anomalies over Scandinavia whilst the EPS remains flatter. So we are still looking at a SW upper flow but quite weak over southern Britain and one couldn't exclude the latter coming under the influence of the surface high. This probably wouldn't be the case with the EPS

Hi Doghouse- I think in a nutshell Id love to sound like usual self- however theres got to be 'some' reality- when the chance arises I will be the first one singing its praises, however as it stands you have a total dome of warmth over NW Europe with & the jet continues unabated over the top. Id rather just post the reality than hopecast a cold spell just to safisfy everyone. All things considered the next opportunity comes around day 11- ( other than the slim chance at day 7 ) why? Everytime theres a wave of energy exiting the states or developing across the atlantic then theres the chance for change for NW europe - however the backdrop to that is a deep area of vortex setting up shop over canada so theres not likely to be to much window for change when theres so much energy exiting eastwards our way- The route to cold ( as I think ive tried to highlight a few times ) is the scandi one as that high pressure can remain in situ in a strongly positive AO scenario - so most of the mid lats are mild apart from the area in the immediate SE vicinity of that Scandi High- Talking of AO & realism - the medium term mean has trended towards +2 on the scale - that is significant in terms of that index- very difficult to protract cold out of that- but as said not impossible. With a little bit of luck that xmas is at day 16 theres time to have a run at a festive cold spell - we would need continuity from the 22nd ish.... S PS - UKMO is poor tonight, just not as poor as the GFS, the amplitude of the high is way to low to promote undercutting- you need a high pressure central point around Norway as a minimum to get that -See the 2 charts below 1 is good, one is UKMO If we take the day 1991 started 4th & 5th the AO was positive...! Before dropping out when the high migrated west

Numerous posts discussing White Christmases have been moved to the White Christmas thread (because, funnily enough, they're off topic) Is it REALLY that hard to stay on topic?

What can we do when almost the entire GFS suit flip flops from blocked to mobile run to run? Quite simply stop following each run out into far F1 and compare like with like at these extended times.

Worth keeping an eye on the jetstream forecast profile. Longer term as we head towards christmas it shows a split flow developing and signs perhaps more energy will transfer into the southern arm, if this occurs, it will be the key trigger that is required to force the central core of the euro ridge to build northwards, we could easily end up in a trough disruption/slider low territory - with heights crucially lowering to our south. Such developments won't be seen in the models for quite a few days yet, much will depend on the pattern over the USA/Canada - as I said yesterday there is a signal for a strong build of heights/ridge over central/east USA which will cut off the cold air supply feeding off the NE USA seaboard which is fuelling the jet into high gear presently, this in turn would result in a less marked temp gradient, end result a sluggish jet, probably becoming unstuck against a mighty block to our east. We have some good foundations for a colder pattern as we end the month - far better than the past 5 Decembers at this range I would say..

Today South Wales, south west and southern England will be cloudy with rain tracking east, which will be heavy at times, clearing the SE by this evening. Remaining mild. So on to the GFS this morning and as usual restricting this to the next ten days. The long wave pattern is essentially the same but with more amplification and some new adjustments vis the trough and HP towards the end there is a continued move towards a more blocked scenario. The last couple of runs briefly indicated a plausible and quick route to cold by having the very strong NE jet disconnect the ridge and channel energy on a diverse path SE and feed a cut off low to the SE. This is now off the table but is replaced by probably a more likely, and interesting development. But to start a little earlier. To start the week we have a ridge over the UK with the main upper trough out west. A small low breaks off from this and tracks SE, disrupting the ridge and bringing unsettled and showery conditions to all of the UK on Tuesday. From here the familiar story of the next upper trough tracking east whilst pushing the HP so that by T144 the next low is over Iceland with the associated trough running south west of Ireland with the surface fronts a little further east over Ireland. From here the fun and games begin in earnest. Much amplification takes place as the trough rapidly deconstructs and the Azores HP surges north east and we actually end up with Rex Block at T204. From here the HP moves east to be centred over Denmark whilst out west a large, complex, negatively tilted upper trough is orientated NE Canada to Iberia leaving a lot of surface lows dotted about. After that it's a raging battle between the big beasts but best left for another day. So a quick summation weather wise. After some showery outbreaks Tues/Weds the next frontal system hits the block on Friday and fizzles out and thereafter dry as an easterly component becomes established. Temps above average to begin with and becoming cooler in the easterly regime.

Now I've just shocked myself - I've just checked every op run - GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, ARPEGE, UKMO - and apart from the UKMO they ALL show trough disruption against the block. That means the GFS 18Z idea is not in the slightest an outlandish one. Indeed, the JMA has arguably a better Scandi high on it. And the UKMO may disrupt later on, maybe? It will be entirely about how far heights can push north into Scandi. There's a real chance!

Let's keep it sensible and friendly please guys. I know the charts are underwhelming currently but please keep on topic and hold back on personal digs. Thanks all.

I'd be more concerned if it was Christmas tomorrow. As it happens, it's two weeks away, so put the kettle on and stop worrying

Yes, well it was hard not too really, week after week of blocky updates, then the carpet rug swept from beneath us... sigh. I'm moving to Florida, might get some decent uppers in winter there.

I think the main problem is some of us got sucked into the front loaded winter hype nonsense and the current models / weather has made a mockery out of that..can only hope for better runs.

We would struggle to get any surface cold off the continent on this ECM run next week end with the high too far south. I was looking to see if the second pulse from the Azores high around T168hrs would do enough such as the GFS mean and looking at the gefs 2m temps for C.England would give max's around 4-6C ,some night frosts and some brighter conditions for a few days.Where the main high settles makes the difference between something reasonably seasonal or maybe a rather mild and more cloudy south westerly. The former is only crumbs when many of us are looking for the whole loaf but probably preferable to most of us given the alternative.

I'm getting mixed messages here again!

Sorry to jump out of the learners amateur wilderness, please may say that the above is a great example of how to be be polite but constructively challenge another post in such a way that us lesser knowledgeable readers can both learn and understand. This is a great site as a learning resource with both professionals and very knowledgeable enthusiasts. It is a shame that some posts have been disrespectfully bullish or demonstrating a little knowledge becomes dangerous when posted based on opinion and not facts. Bottom line is that we are ALL learning but at different levels both professionals and enthusiasts alike. Moderators sorry for off topic post. Many thanks to you all.

Well - maybe... but polar north westerlies for low lying areas usually means wind and cold rain. Pretty grim and I would suggest more grim than a frosty block. Right now we need to wait patiently for the locale of the block to shift because it has setup in the worst possible place for us. But it is a very strong block and the suggestion towards Christmas is that it will move north. A strong block - even a Rex block to start with as Knocker referred to previously- gets us tantalisingly close to proper battleground Synoptics as per 1991 or 1996 or perhaps even a bitter feed as per 1987. For that reason I very much hope we will not end up under marginal NW air streams. Dont see it happening anyway. The key now is patience and whether the GWO can stay away from orbits 1-3. As I posted last night the GEFS keeps seeing the Nina footprint hitting the atmosphere but so far this season it hasn't. If that is maintained then the current modelling of a U.K. Block will be undercooked. If the ENSO disconnect can continue to work in our favour then the block ought to be much higher lat than that. im still very excited by this winter. Most positive feel for many years. So much that can still go right for coldies. The ongoing misery and negativity of some posts frankly has no place in 2016/17 when background drivers are so good. First 10 days of December has brought some pretty painful reading to this thread with toys strewn everywhere. Let's see what the next 10 days brings........

Come off it , its not that mild

I've run through the individual perts at 384 hrs. 50%- yes 50% have some form of appreciable northern blocking or immediate route to blocking. That's a significant cluster.

On a positive note, all these depressing charts are in F.I. (whenever that is...) therefore the only way things could get worse is if the F.I. charts actually verify. And when does that ever happen!.........

I'll be viewing the outputs from behind the sofa tomorrow! It won't be a case of looking well into FI as we have done for signs of hope. Given the set up and the very fine margins my newly designed EEPPS( early exit poll projection system) could well call the Scandi high election by as early as T96hrs or even a bit earlier! It really is that dependent on events within that timeframe. By latest T96hrs we'd have a good idea of the upstream pattern and whether the trigger shortwave is favourable. As much as I'd like to be up that early to watch the drama of the GFS 00hrs run unfortunately being a bit of a night owl means I'm usually only just turning in by around 2am !

I have that same hopeless feeling I had last Dec reading some of the posts today, very depressing stuff..The word underwhelming sums it up.

Yeh, Steve snap out of it man. Why not join with GP and find a route to cold instead of sounding like IDO. Come on, ye know ye want to

I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...Charts like this are continuously being signalled within the GEFS so there is a signal there somewhere as we look towards Christmas.

Starts off at about 0C at 850 level Knocker- small blob off Norfolk Rapidly expands and cools to just about -4 some 18 hrs later

Given that White Easters are statistically more common than White Christmases and, that March can be an extension of winter (1970, 1975, 1979, 1996 & 2013 to name a few) I am not going to write off an entire season just on the basis of what December 10's GFS and ECM suggest...Get a grip, peeps?

If you look at the last ECM46 ensemble mean chart (Christmas week) for 500-1000 thickness - you can see why models are having such difficulties in solution. Such a narrow corridor between quite extreme thickness values and just tiny oscillations in the pattern give very different outcomes as surface conditions. It could be some time before this is resolved.

Looking at the GEFS for Christmas eve/day, which at that range is as realistic as looking at the Op, quite a few showing a cold flow. Some showing nasty storms and a few even showing snow. With the current model uncertainty, any one of them could be the outcome by Christmas. Also, not one of them is showing what I would consider "mild" even the ensemble mean is showing around 4°C on Xmas day. Edit- I missed one. One of them is showing mild.... only one....

Mild in most of Europe? Best check the charts. This is Europe and most of it isn't mild.

Still using meaningless 'D16' mean charts I see? My money is on a cold blocked Christmas with possible snow. I'm feeling confident that something is afoot.

Edit. Just in case people are wondering why these early morning posts look a little odd it is because I do a running commentary with my thoughts as the run comes out and then edit in the next thought etc. Never thought to mention that before. GFS 00z good continuity with 18z with marginal improvements early Jet profiles 144 00z/18z comparison. leading to a sniff of undercut at 144 and the pattern upstream is also slightly more amplified. Only negative is the jet is a little more powerful My bones tell me that any Easterly is a red herring and it will be the Atlantic we will eventually look to for blocking be it a retrogressing pattern or Atlantic ridge - but then bones aren't very scientific. Quite a few changes upstream to recent output on this run though and the PV not looking very organised. By day 10 things look quite different to the 18z with blocking in control and potential for retrogression. Edit Well that escalated quickly Good ol' GFS FI. Other than GFS FI Atlantic hurricanes though two things of note First decent continuity with 18z for better amplification and potentially better blocking say 72 through 120. Secondly the huge changes upsteam which suggest the output could still be quite volatile through early FI

The 10th Dec is going to be one of the most important days of model outputs this winter for the UK. The 00z suite is crucial. That scandi high needs to gain traction over the next 24 hours.

The overall base state is a weakened jet for the foreseeable, the resurgence forecast next week probably a very temporary feature and caused by the cold air spilling out of Canada, longer term forecast is for significant ridge development over much of central/east USA cutting off the cold air supply - very quickly - snap!