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Yesterdays post focussed on the downsides behind the less appealing NWP which has been juggling with the much more appealing amplified responses to CW polar stratospheric weakness. On that basis I felt quite complimented by my description of "cautious optimism" I wonder if the upside angle of todays post might constitute a leap from sanguine caution to wilder abandonment? Want some of that 'return to Maritimes' forcing traction? Its almost insidious for sure, but first tentative hints of joys to come seeping into the just updated GEFS and ECM tropical convection suites. Is the next angular momentum upsurge coming into view to ramp up amplification/stratospheric weakness to another level and further evidentially support the cross polar profile and those week 3 and 4 decidedly yummy extended ECM profiles? The timing on this could be very fitting.... Based on the fact that the atmospheric circulation remains largely disconnected anyway with a higher atmospheric angular momentum tendency than suggested vs the ENSO base state, then the ante is upping to increase 'upside' to this disconnect prevailing throughout - as lifespan time keeps running out for the expected course of this Nina (the end of the year). The ECM model is increasingly bullish now in terminating this (disconnected) contract into the heart of winter - and the majority of models are heading more and more towards a shortfall of the Nina threshold and ENSO neutral prevailing over the coming weeks. With AAM already disconnected to the Nina base state, then this neutral trend would may augur better still for sustained atmospheric buoyancy to capitalise on strong Eurasian stratospheric feedbacks courtesy of excellent autumn snow cover and favourable ice weakness over Kara/Barents - and help drive home programmed amplification attacks on the vortex and an -AO/AO profile beyond the New Year. There are dominoes certainly to fall before then, but in a wildcard winter, such a wider abandonment scenario is not beyond my own feasible comprehension - if todays focus switches with more emphasis on possible 'upsides'. The 30 day moving SOI, right now, up to the last week of November, underpins how much of a departure has occurred over the course of the autumn. The disconnect continues...and with time running out to meet those previous forecast expectations. Something should give quite quickly one way or the other.... On daily increasing evidence basis there are at least as much grounds for any Nina-esque Pacific Ridge being the cross polar friend rather than the mid latitude upstream foe I cautioned of yesterday. The Global Wind Oscillation has already rebounded straight back from quite high amplitude Phase 8 (following the end of the recent MJO cycle) back to Phase 4. The fall in total GLAAM has been restricted just to parity, after that overstretched +ve disconnect at almost +2SD! This leaves the atmospheric circulation precisely where it was at the end of October (just ahead of the previous, then imminent tropical forcing spike) and that is in spite of the considerable downward inertia of an atmospheric angular momentum correction (as discussed in recent updates) that balances flux budgets following active tropical cycling through the Pacific This limited fall, set against ocean base state, is ahead of the return of the IO/Maritime forcing coming slowly into view and which would spike angular momentum positive heading into winter proper and really ramp up the prospects for amplification, taking maximum advantage of that early stratospheric weakness. On the basis of such a timed spike in AAM, the natural change in seasonal wavelengths heading from December to January would work natural magic on the NH weather patterns seen in other neutral ENSO/+ve GlAAM, solid Eurasian snow cover years ....Heights from southern Greenland, Iceland to Scandinavia - and with the Global Wind Oscillation orbiting in Phases 5/6/7 (as recently) rather than threatening Nina phases 1,2,3. The continuing failure for ocean/atmosphere coupling to properly occur against downside pressure, further increases my own suspicions harboured since late summer that, although its still too soon to be absolutely certain, some consensus opinions of both the potential effects and longevity of this event may have been overcooked. If, and it is still an if at the moment, this does prove to be the case then the downside floor (described yesterday and which still exists) of -ve GLAAM/weak Nina, westerly QBO and decreasing solar cycle = increasing threat of stratospheric vortex recovery and +AO/NAO profile pendulum ......swings more and more the other way to +ve inclined GLAAM/neutral ENSO constructively augmenting sea ice, SIA and SCE feedbacks = potential for Jan SSW. That would beat a drum as icing on the cake for mid winter prospects I really shouldn't get ahead of myself, but I have nevertheless indulged regardless. ..

In-keeping with the winter forecast the latest EC monthly is remarkably consistent over a signal for further high pressure dominated patterns across the U.K. and to the north. Especially by week 3 and week 4, which takes towards Christmas the signal for extensive northern blocking remains with a large positive pressure anom to the north and northwest of the U.K. covering most of Greenland and Iceland. In essence the longer term signal for northern blocking through Dec is maintained once again in this latest update. All to play for moving forward... Regards. Matt.

...except GloSea5 has been signalling it even longer :-). The new EC Monthly is especially interesting, because we know pulling -ve temp anomalies (across S'rn UK in this case) out of a hat in longer range models by week 4 (it finishes 25th Dec) is quite uncommon. But it fits our current broad expectations mid-end Dec.

It’s not been a good 23hrs nick. 7 pages last 23 hrs shows a distinct lack of excitement. Last nights 18z showed its face and was given short shrift, so no' lock in' on that pub run, most members went home well before closing , saying well its better than a Barlett Those pesky short waves remained creating merry hell. The GFS ops were all over the place one too many whiskies. So a new day , Black Friday……Very apt Remember GFS charts 0Z 6z and 12z charts crawled back to a ECM solution yesterday. Unfortunately, the UKMO ended up in hospital alone, when the GFS 12z should have joined it, Which is a reminder, let the updates run their course before knee jerk comments after 4 seconds into the run. These have consequences for the models and the very early summary by members for the 12Z were far too positive. Today GFS 0z,6z, s*** more back tracking then Donald Trump and the northerly has gone to bed But Wait GFS 12z makes up for yesterday’s crap and gives us a northerly at T210 and a hurricane at T264 , its saying to us. Will keep these F***** on here till May. ECM showed lots of cold air around, wow ! not here though, ‘maybe a easterly T168 ?’ Nope its sh** . If your looking for cold ignore the most reliable model recently. Even at T240 it shows mild. Hospital food awaits for that F*** model. GEM + amplitude+ short wave lets see how that goes at T168. UKMO may work with a few tweaks , sure dynamite required Models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal.(no sh** Sherlock) Where is that high going to settle next week watch this space.? Folks talking of front loaded winter went into hiding today… mid December late December is now in vogue for cold Tamara patience is the key and some other stuff. Cold 2/10 (2 for background signals) On a positive note Dzalinda (Russia) forum members are horrified at the lack of diurnal range. got a max of -38.8c and minimum of -44.9c yesterday poor sods.

And relax................ and SMILE. A Santa surprise perhaps.

Answering the E'ly question and essentially impossible to say. Given longer term signal for northern blocking then would suggest it's a greater possibility than compared with 12 months back... Mainly all I want to say is don't get caught up on individual model runs, despite many doing. At the moment the medium and longer term is highly uncertain and anything could crop up, as exampled by the spread in the 12z GEFS Regards, Matt.

Here's an idea why not stop stressing over every run and ens suite? why not assume that come mid dec, we will indeed see low anomolys to our south and east (the south ones come after those to our east back across us) with high ones to our west and north. Watch the main players on the hemispheric view and see if you can see how we are going to end up in that place by that timescale. If some wintry looking charts crop up before then, assume that they will be fleeting or not verify at all. Look for the reasons they won't happen rather than the reason they will. take the glass half full view for the time being. you will feel better for it and if the white stuff does arrive mid dec onwards, you can enjoy it that bit more having avoided the daily stresses of the ups and downs.

I think in fairness, because there has been a lot of talk of height rises to our north over the past weeks, with also statements that this year could well be a front loaded winter, it has ultimately orchestrated posters expectations that December has to deliver or we could miss out on cold opportunities. When an opportunity shows itself deep in fl and repeats itself, even has ensemble support, it can get you ahead of yourself, "this is it, here we go" only for it to disappear over the next runs. We are only human, and writing about your dissappointment and sharing others disapproval of the weather models is actually a form of therapy! We aren't all experts on here, we are enthusiasts. The only way to manage your own expectations, and I struggle with this one, is don't get carried away when you see a few runs in fl that show you exactly what you were expecting and hoping to see. ill take this, maybe it's our strong high pressure, that not everyone wants to see, that will drift north in medium range and unlock the cold gates for the UK! time for a break for me, see you all for the 12z

The latest London ens graph for 2m temperatures shows a large amount of spread as we start the new month. Rainfall low which suggests a blocked outlook around the UK,at least for a week seems the likely outcome.. The spread in temperatures probably due to where the high settles,a little further north would allow a colder feed off the continent such as shown for this coming Sun/Mon. The cold air coming down and around the high from the Scandinavia trough to our east.Mid day temps just above freezing in the south and sub-zero further north. Beyond the next few days? who knows with such a wide spread of solutions to the NH pattern it's one of those times that a mean chart doesn't show the whole picture and a deeper look at the clusterings in the gefs stamps may give an idea of trends. Have a look at the gefs for a week today T168hrs anything from a strong northerly to a UK high is there-more volatility than normal quite early on as underlined in that first graph. .

I really think model fatigue has set in for some!.....go and have a lie down, take a couple of anti-depressants or something, in all my years on NW I've never seen such a gaggle of over-stressed, over-hormonal, and knee-jerk reaction posts by some as I've seen tonight.....either that, or some folk have been on the sauce, or are just insane....either way, chill out, enjoy the ride, and what will be, will be as there are far more important things in life to worry about than not having enough blues strategically placed on a chart!

How about this for an Omega block

The last time these two models (well, their ancestors) were so consistent with such a signal for so long was surely in the run-up to Nov-Dec 2010? Just sayin' With EC looking interesting week 3 onward, that's 10th Dec onward, and the latest GFS stops on that date, with the Arctic profile just starting to break up again. If that doesn't calm some peoples' nerves, I don't know what will.

Call me crazy, but I still have a feeling the models will start to show a swing back to colder in the next couple of day's It's not often at 144-168hrs the charts continue showing the same out come down to 0hrs, so there is no reason why they should start now. I still think a Northerly of sorts will happen sometime next weekend on wards. The Northern hemisphere is primed differently this year, Polar Vortex is all over the shop & so are the charts..... BRING ON THE 12z

Yes, we must keep our spirits up! GEFS 11-15 day forecast: "Northerly flow directed at Scandinavia around main #polarvortex center suggests #cold weather for Northern Europe soon after #winter starts." Dr. Cohen.

Really! Tonight was positively happy compared to some I've known. And anyway we're not supposed to be totally sane or deliver emotionless posts, that's part of the appeal of the thread. If you think tonight was bad wait for the next easterly drama with -15 uppers shown hurtling towards the UK only to be scuppered by a misbehaving shortwave!

Absolutely! I cannot see what the Met office see but I can see that the forecast strat profile at 30mb is an unusual occurence compared to recent times. A Canadian warming has been a prelude to some good early cold periods including the 'Daddy' of them all. Patience required and a realisation that things have changed a lot with regard to overall atmospheric conditions in the intervening decades.

Many posts have had to go as off topic and are not suited to this thread. Hundreds of members log in here for constructive Model Discussion every day and so that is what we like to deliver/uphold. Please think before posting, As any 1 liners/Point scoring/Moaning/Ramping or use of over-emotion will be removed to keep the thread clean/clear and educational, There is also a Winter Hopes/thoughts thread already open and now a Model moan/ramp thread.. Please continue discussions on what the Model Outputs are showing, Thanks.

ECM is as dreadful as it gets tonight with the UK thrust into very very mild air post day 8- There hasnt been 1 decent cold outlook from the ECM since it landed this week & it has thus far easily pegged the GFS which has continually backtracked on any cold- The only crumb of comfort is all the mildness comes day 9 / 10 with opportunity of change to a colder blocked high still flagging at 168... very poor couple of days models....

The winter forecast for 2016/17 has been released, and is named 'A Winter Of Wildcards' There are two versions to view: Full Winter Forecast 2016/17 Winter Forecast Summary The forecast this year has been written by Tony Wells (Lorenzo) and Matt Hugo, and as you'll see it's an immense amount of work that they've put in to put it all together, so a massive thanks to them both for doing this. A change this year is that we're going to be issuing updates to the forecast, which will be published after mid-month throughout the winter, to look at how things are progressing, and detailing any changes which may have a knock on effect across the rest of the season. Here's to a fun winter!

Yes Knocker, but my Cohen GEFS tweet was for the period 6th to the 10th Dec. And it shows the cold coming into Scandinavia and Europe as per what the tweet states. The important thing is, if you then look forward ahead, as per the ECM weekly update from today, it suggests that the cold air then moves further south and west so that nearly all of northern Europe becomes pretty darn cold. To save people looking back I'll post both illustrations again:

For newbies in terms of the ECM heres the T168hrs chart. The red arrow is the warmer air heading north this normally helps to build high pressure to the east of that low, WAA to give it its more met term. The black arrow is where you want to see some energy go from that low, this in terms of lower heights(lower pressure) gets underneath the high near the UK , this stops it sinking. If all the energy from that low goes ne then effectively its like a weight on the high forcing it to sink.

Well you can see the dividing line between the warm and cold air it's the exact shape as the outline of Britain. Is someone having a laugh

Can't say as I have, TBH...In some ways it's like we've been teleported back into the 1960s, when 3 days' forecasting accuracy was your lot...Long may model-uncertainty continue!

Good consistency between GFS 18z and this mornings 00z which isn't great if we still hoped for the Northerly Shortwave parks itself in just the wrong place again, only minor difference is the pattern is a little sharper and so a touch further West UKMO is flatter so little encouragement there for a quick route to cold GEM not a million miles from GFS at 120, just with different timing of the shortwaves running over the ridge meaning one doesn't park in the worse possible place for amplification as with GFS. Bit of an outsider that but it shows how small differences in shortwave development and timing can bring very different results for us. GFS FI, again good consistency overall with the 18z. So it is pretty much as you were from last night with some good news and not so good news for the mid term but overall big picture looking promising for cold weather fans with several possible routes to cold. What we really need to see though is a cold set up modeled with some consistency and to get inside the 144 range. GFS ensembles suggest this northerly saga still has some legs yet. At 144 some are better placed than 18z and some worse placed to bring a Northerly but overall they are around 15% improved by my rough rule of thumb.

Thanks 101 ! Much appreciated. Aberdeen beach this am

I go on holiday on 27th December. The law of sod dictates that a week long crippling blizzard will insue from that date, until my return on Jan 3rd, when my plane will usher in an air of the tropics....

Well then, after nearly two hours spent watching the GFS come to nothing more than it did this morning, I will, ironically enough, bugger-off and watch Pointless!

Huge fan of this page, but already beginning to see exhaustion setting in. I have learnt so much in the last few years by reading between the lines and trying not to get hung up on the one liners. Having been a follower of this for a good few years, here is my take on the model output at moment. The swings are huge. From deep deep cold to mild mush, there is of course a huge difference to this time last year. This time last year we had absolutely no signs of cold, this year we have a vortex which has been on holiday, unable to decide where it will go for a number of weeks. The feeling I have is that we could be on the cusp of something great or just get caught in no mans land frustrated as cold pools vere into the mid atlantic. I love a good storm, but I am really not seeing where this jet will become mobile in the short term. Is exciting and I think a chill pill needs to be handed out, if as has been said by we minutely look at each run four by GFS then it is frought with danger. please don't let the sniping and one upisms get your backs up this could be a hugely exciting winter period

Keep the faith, I think the MetO have a tone of confidence, ironically the short-medium range is causing more of a headache, I'm not a fan of this erratic behaviour in model output but this is typical when cold solutions wants to bubble to the surface. I'm fairly convinced there will be no proper cold spell early Dec a northerly snap is all, good if it rocks your boat. In real wintry blasts they're usually the first to pick it up. Throwback to December 2015? Not to fret it will be gone come the next one

Think some people need to relax a little bit. Yes the gfs06z isn't a great run. But I'm sure I've just checked my calendar and it's only the 25th of November. 7 days is a long way in model output a lot can and will change. With the noises coming from the professionals on this site I think as we enter winter proper we could see some nice charts cropping up. Just a case of hanging in there and not to over analyse every signal model run.

To be honest, the models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal. I believe this is a consequence of records low sea ice, record cold Siberia, QBO being stuck and lack of PV organisation. It is unprecedented, and believe we have hit a tipping point in the climate which cannot be resolved by the models.

Actually really......some of the posting is ridiculously OTT, and as has been requested god knows how many times over the years, sensible model discussion is encouraged. There are plenty of other threads on NW if anyone wishes to moan about the weather or compile posts which would otherwise be considered off topic in this thread...One-liners, over-negative/over dramatic posts have absolutely no place in this thread, all it does it help derail the thread and put off people from posting, as well as giving inaccurate information regarding the outputs...stewfox's ironic post (which you liked) is a perfect example of what I'm talking about ....as I've mentioned recently, a bit of character and sense of humour & passion is certainly an advantage in this thread, but there is a difference between that and the melodramatic stuff that gets posted......personally I'd love a bunch of charts showing snow that actually verifies, but I won't lose any sleep if it doesn't, unlike some seemingly!

Looks like the GFS has now given up the ghost and caved in completely after days of throwing out some colder solutions. In typical GFS style its now much more progressive over the USA and flatter in the Atlantic than the ECM. Whilst the ECM can be a bit wayward post T144hrs it hardly ever continues with the wrong solution for days within that timeframe. This is now two abject failures by the GFS in two weeks and it looks like normal service has been resumed with it constantly playing catch up.

Looks like the GFS is ready to wave the white flag on the Northerly if the 06z ensembles are to be believed which is odd given the signal strengthened if anything in the 00z set. ECM is a good run if you like dry chilly weather with frost but taken at face value it is followed by long draw Southwesterlies and very mild weather. We could muse about the possibility of a Scandi high another week down the road but otherwise it is pretty desperate stuff if we are looking for cold in FI. I suspect we will maintain a more amplifed pattern than that though so doubt it is leading the way to a pattern change. ECM ensembles have totally moved away from any real cold and mostly go for temps around normal to above normal for early December after a chilly start, A few very mild runs probably reflecting patterns close to the Op but huge scatter and a few chilly runs too so not a lot of information there other than no signal for real cold. Given all that, it is a case of taking long term forecasts at face value and looking forward to our first cold spell toward mid December that leads into a white Christmas for the optimistic cold weather fans. November will end a fairly chilly month and there has been a fair bit of blocking, just mid latitude blocking that never quite set up in the right places for an unseasonably cold blast. Early December looks like more of the same so we await charts that show the blocking getting into the higher latitudes to enhance our cold prospects. I kind of hope the phantom northerly is completely put to bed this evening as a break from willing cold and snow charts into reality is needed Time for a rest and to come back refreshed to chase down those Winter charts - in actual Winter! (We all know this evenings output will probably lure us back in though and we are still in an amplified pattern so something can, and probably will, crop up very quickly )

Okay. I get that as the stratospheric vortex stretches out toward N. America as the wave 2 attack builds, there might be some enhancement to westerly mobility in the Atlantic sector, this helped along by the fact that during periods of strong poleward wave flux the AO can head neutral to at times positive... but the GFS 06z looks way overblown in terms of the magnitude of response. Feedback loops spiraling out of control. By contrast, the 00z produced phenomenal blocking to have a good go at fending off the westerlies and if anything that seemed too far in the other direction. The ECM 00z is close to a good balance. As I said last night - my main hope for the lead-up to mid-Dec potential is fending off the wind and rain as much as possible while the major poleward transport of heat and moisture takes place (which admittedly looks tragic for the sea ice situation - if we were all incredibly selfless individuals we'd be hoping for as little poleward heat flux as possible to save the Arctic... or at least we would if that made a jot of difference to what the weather got up to ).

Well done Tony and Matt on a well presented and detailed forecast - I will have a look in a bit more detail later but agree wholeheartedly with the direction winter will take. Fingers crossed and good luck guys.

Very pleasant And Sidney is smelling the coffee

SAME thing happens within the model thread every year.. Someone's expectations are publicly burnt at the stake and others worries are drowned in a lake - and then the thread starts again with the mods warning everyone to behave - then it happens again. ...been there, read it slept in the t-shirt. We're living on an Island where the main topic of conversation is the weather, like it or not. THREE days forecast is the acceptable hope (but not specifically in a small back yard 3 miles north of croydon et al) we have to see the bigger picture which as it turns out isn't as easy as it sounds. Long term influences, trend and analytical observations way beyond the understanding of folk like me are WHY we're here on this fab forum Behave, be polite, ask questions and learn Over-and-out for yet another year

Steve sorry it is not a very poor couple of days models as their only spewing out data every other hour and produce a mean cold, mild, hot. wind. rain. snow. sleet. ect ect... What is fustrating for me however is these posts that call for a change to a cold pattern at 10+ days away (yes I know you have your science behind your reasoning and respect that but don't you or mods think that should be for the lrf's thread?) as a lot of people who takes pros talk for gospel and hang on it usually end up disappointed. personaly : i am all for a cold and snowy winter however lrf's and such statements should never be taken gospel which people has done so already such as +4 weeks down the line. cohen predicts and fergie this or gp predicts that. Dispite and I love reading their take on proceedings going forward these posts should be valid in the lrf prediction territory and if wrong never mind. However mod thread a popular thread this time of year and we get a lot of let's say 'long time listeners and no posters' who are facinated by winter weather come here daily to check what popular posters are saying and from my prospective it's wrong telling your grandma to prepare for cold weather +2-4 weeks in advance.

More support growing in the GFS 12 Ens for the Northerly. It not over to the fat lady sings

Down to detail from here but blocking to NW a building theme again. I am of the opinion that there'll be a lot more cold conditions around than mild. I think the GFS is getting a feel for the way ahead. Because of the vortex set up or lack of I don't think we will get a 'clean' set up like a prolonged Scandi or GHP. Amplified yes, and although the GFS run seems chaotic I think chaotic could be a decent description of the pattern ahead. Those feelings remain and yes 12z likes it ! Expect more ups and downs but very nice to see the 12z come back. Normally when GFS flips it doesn't come back with a vengeance so chances are there BFTP

Thank you for all the comments - much appreciated, hellishly difficult forecast to piece together this year.

lol...I think I'll wait and see how the weather rolls out before reaching for my cutthroat razor!

Well all I'd say with regard to people perhaps feeling a bit deflated: Two weeks ago the NAO was forecast to be at below -3 around now.. As things stand, it's not even below -1. So the forecast is way, way out. I made the point a while back that all those nice charts never got any closer than around day 9/10, and lo and behold, it's been proven right. Moral of the story - don't get too carried away with eye candy forecasts that are out in the distance. Chances are you may well be let down!

Forgetting what people want/don't want, Likes/dislikes.. Lets please just discuss what the models are actually showing. There is far more to them than just cold/snow..

This sums up some of the prats posting in the model thread! Excellent stuff. Lol. It was worth going through the model thread to end the day with this....

Adding to the lovely captures from Catch, here's some pics showing the last of the light up here today. Usually take the dog around Loch an Eilein once or twice a week, it's always beautiful but particuarly so today. The pinky/purple light provided a lovely background to me slipping on my erse repeatedly on the icy forest trails. Currently -5c (Nice white Cairngorms almost blending in with the sky in 1st pic)

Before I go tonight, worth noting that meto month ahead forecast in the middle part of Nov 2010 quite often said 'Turning colder with snow to the higher ground in the north" look what happened;) Just a nice teaser

Haha, if I was on holiday and that was forecast, I'd unbook it, might sound sad but I couldn't miss it for anything , extreme snow lover here haha

It's understandable though, it's not even winter yet, but it feels like we're 2 months in already! It's been a relentless month of model watching so far. Think ive lost the plot around 12 times so far