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Looking way further ahead, the EC seasonal has updated today. The GH500 anomalies throughout the winter are signalling fairly significant high-lat blocking. What I'm liking about this is that it's reasonably consistent with last month's run. Pinch of salt, definitely, but for coldies there is hope.

Well well - an interesting 48 period of model watching - 24 hours ago the models moved away from the retrograde scenario & replaced it with hope of a warm southerly - Now just 24 hours later thats been shunted away east as the Upper trough repositions to the south / south west of the UK - delivering cool ENE winds.. interesting...

The EC seasonal has updated today. The GH500 anomalies throughout the winter are signalling fairly significant high-lat blocking. What I'm liking about this is that it's reasonably consistent with last month's run. Pinch of salt, definitely, but for coldies there is hope.

Yesterday you were looking at January as it showed above average temps and calling it realistic!

Channel lows in East to North East winds then knocker - just what we like. Let's hope the Nov update is still showing this.

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW.

Models flip flopping a bit over the last 24 hours with regard to the medium timeframe i.e. 120-168 hrs. UKMO, GFS and ECM all showing trough development over the country by the end of next week, its trajectory determined by heights to our NE and SW paving a direct hit for the UK. So a possible 'cyclonic' interlude by next weekend, bringing the first proper bout of precipitation all month for many, perhaps something quite heavy and long lasting and it would feel cool. I'm not looking beyond next weekend, as the longer range outlook will hinge on how the trough develops. Still very interesting charts for October, far from the default westerly zonal onslaught, with quite anomlous high heights to our north.

Now if this chart come off and it was 31st October Halloween is would certainly be spooky . its so interesting this year as since I joined I can not recall such conditions at this time of year with regards to the big picture . Good or bad a great learning curve for me as a novice trying to understand everything.

Largs felt summer like today. Went through there today on the motorbike. Took the Old Largs Road to Greenock instead of the coastal road which I love. I wasn't disappointed. Kept my speed down as it was often single track and the road is popular with cyclists & sheep. First photo of is of Loch Thom and the second is in the descent into Greenock looking north.

Fab camping weather in Glencoe this weekend

Hmm well the models are certainly heading towards a more unsettled mid-range outcome now. Low pressure to our north west gets squeezed between heights to our north east and rising pressure in the Atlantic resulting in a trough developing close to the UK. There are differences in the location of this low, the UKMO has it over the UK, the GFS develops this over central/southern Europe before drifting it slowly towards us. Not a usual pattern again for October and certainly not the increasing westerly influence we would usually expect.

Again a reminder that this the Model discussion thread everyone.There are threads to expand on Winter prospects so please all let's get back on topic. Thanks.

Still stunningly blue here as well although standing in the sun in totally calm conditions you can feel that its summer strength has gone. Finished taking in bales this morning so thats harvest over. Currently only 11c in spite of sun.Very dry air at 55%RH My neighbours below me making the most of the stunning day

i wouldn't worry about short term variations for now, tentative good news is, from ian ferguson, the EC seasonal is showing HP anomalies over Greenland/N-NW of the UK. from november right through to february! back to now, how will the track of TS Matthew affect the models now it is predicted to travel east into the Atlantic rather than curve back to the Bahamas?

Lovely Sunday morning. Snow shower last night settled at 1800m level on the local mountains. Feels crisp and wintery. C

Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.

That should wake the coldies up from their summer hibernation, well those not already seeing snowmen outside their windows!

The Jet Stream seems to have stopped for the weekend on the ECM as the Low hardly moves:

I'm changing gear into cold ramper mode The GEFS 12z perturbations show some chilly scenarios during late october and these indicate possible arctic maritime airmass heading our way.

Cool and chance of heavy showers in the easterly midweek with England under the influence of the trough to the south and south east. Then the conduit from Canada comes into play with active troughs running around the Atlantic HP down over the UK portending an unsettled and quite wet weekend. And right at the end of the run there is an Arctic plunge with a deep trough over the Baltic.

A bit of good news for today then.......

Well it all does depend on where the upper low sets up shop and thus the surface low as can be seen on the latest GFS run so as to stay on topic. If that drifts SE then the wind will back SE and be rTm and in this context one must keep in mind sea temps around the UK being above average.

Speaking of OTT cold rampers!

A chilly feeling Ecm 12z this evening with a nagging Easterly flow for most of the week ahead and the other feature is the trough later in the week that sticks over the uk for several days..so, in the days ahead its cooler than average with sunshine and showers, the showers especially in the east with the best of the dry and sunny weather further west and then becoming more generally unsettled...certainly seasonal!

I think I hinted @ this with the October AO ( thus far ) supporting the follow on through the Winter...

'Fergie weather' mentioned it yesterday in the E.N.S,O Thread "Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW". and in he's words he also said (below)

Since it is 'that time of the year' again, leaves are changing colour and temperatures are slowly dropping, thoughts on the upcoming winter are slowly taking shape. With the unusual QBO 'wobbles' it proves to become an interesting, maybe even a surprising, winter yet again. Judah Cohen did a nice write-up of the current state of the Arctic Oscillation and its meanings for the upcoming winter: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Winter of 2015/16 and some thoughts And also one looking back at our winter last year, where the bounds of predicability are being tested: http://www.aer.com/winter2016 From the very same article: And that is what makes seasonal forecasting so interesting. Is there order in the chaos called the atmosphere? And if so, can we find it? The first answer appears to be yes: there is a Hadley cell which is a regular feature on our planet, there is a stratospheric polar vortex in winter, there should have been a regular QBO... The second question... we have found some order, but is it enough to be able to issue seasonal forecasts with skill? Probably only by understanding the system better we can answer this question. Stratospheric picture Back on topic: the stratospheric polar vortex is quickly taking shape again. At 10 hPa it is clearly there already. ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere at 10 hPa. Source: FU Berlin. Lowerning our view for the moment, the polar vortex at 100 hPa is rather elongated still. In fact, it nicely shows the blocking features present over Scandinavia. That one is developed all the way to the surface. ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere at 100 hPa (left) and GFS analysis at 500 hPa and the surface (right). Sources: FU Berlin and Wetterzentrale.

There's a bit of a difference in the ECMWF model, UKMO model and GFS model this morning. The ECMWF model shows a weaker low to the W of Ireland introducing less of an E breeze. However, the UKMO model shows a low to the S of SW England introducing an E breeze making it feel chilly in exposure. However, unlike the ECMWF model and UKMO model, the GFS model shows a somewhat weaker low over SW England instead of in the Atlantic approaches. There's obviously disagreement in the models, but seen as the low is not very significant, there's not a lot to be concerned about.

Winter 46/47 several years before my time but having read past weather logs and some weather diarys and my parents memories i would say a very interesting winter ,with snow from many different synoptic set ups ,oh how i wish . And of course in early March 1947 the big blizzard with fronts gradually becoming stuck across central areas ,something for everyone bring it on .62/63 I Remember in Bristol the early evening started Wet ,it had been a wet day ,then came the sleet followed by snowflakes Massive flakes ,this fell all night followed by more during early morning [sorry night of boxing day into 27th ] then a slight thaw set in untill 29th dec ,Low pressure over biscay sucked in cold air again with a raging blizzard ,very deep snow with many places isolated .several more moderate falls occured in our area but heavier falls elsewhere ,but generally high pressure clear nights and bitter .December 2010 on paper yes v cold but only two light to moderate falls in our area ,but some parts did well some virtually zilch .I found winter 78/,79 delivered a good bit of snow .of course for me February 18th 1978 here in somerset the great blizzard , And 1981/82 several good snowy spells with one very heavy fall in January .Also the winter of 1939/40 cold and snowy , take care all .

Is it me or since the really warm 00z runs from this morning theres seems to be an increase in heights across iceland and greenland and more undercutting of low pressures into the continent continuing the cool temps!!wouldnt be surprised if theres is no plume at all by tomorrow mornings runs!!

Whilst there is some sniffing around the Atlantic trough getting far enough east and becoming sustained enough to bring a mean southerly component to the flow, the eps post day 10 continue to paint high anomolys to the wnw and low to the ese as a result, temps remain on the low side of average post any temporary recovery to average/slightly above.

If we don't get a decent winter can we blame BREXIT? Seems to be the reason for everything not being right now and in the future.

Good spot this one, saw this today too. Even up to 10hPa it is looking rather unimpressive and elongated/stretched as well on the EC charts. One thing I have found with those EC charts though is like any model, sometimes beyond 144hrs, or even less, what they show one day has no relevance to what they are showing a few days down the line. It is, however, interesting that it seems particularly 'sluggish' to get going this year, especially regarding the level of organisation, you can see this over on the zonal charts on the NASA site. Whilst not a like-for-like comparison, I tweeted the following on the 19th of October last year looking ahead towards the end of the month, clearly whilst this relates to the 10hPa level, it seems a far more organised and 'powerful' feature as last October progressed compared to how it has started this October... Unlike this time last year when the 'writing was on the wall' regarding the winter overall, or least the opening thrid of it, this year it is certainly a different ball game. The situation with the QBO in recent months is certainly very different, the likes of the SAI, as per Cohen has proved to be a 'bust' for the last few years, so less weight is being put on that setup, or it is in my opinion. There's certainly a foundation of signals, like there are every year, but the difference this year is there are a lot of unknowns which, in itself, does make it far more interesting and exciting. It'll be interesting to publish the winter forecast towards the end of November, in association with Lorenzo (Tony), but especially if the organisation of the strat vortex continues to be far less than as would be expected, then it really will be a difficult forecast to produce this year. All those 'having a go' are in the same boat really, even over in the US, differences and variations continue to be in evidence. Will certainly be interesting to see how things go with the strat vortex in the coming weeks, one thing I will say though and that is I think there is little chance of this winter being a repeat of last winter and, if it is something more 'average', then that will certainly be, at times, noteworthy in comparison to the likes of last year. Regards, Matt.

Quite strong Greenland blocking at the end of the run

While out for a run this morning I got caught in one of the showers. It left a parting gift as it drifted away though

Will you never cease promoting this rubbish.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt Some good news is that not only has the PDO continued to decline but now that seasonal wavelengths have changed, the warm blob near Alaska is starting to promote a trough which should weaken those warm waters further.

would seem the winter rutting season is already here amongst a few members!!! anyway looking at the current set up things look calm and very pleasent high pressure seems in control and typical autmn fair.the nhp and pv look to be going hammer and tongs to dominate but it looks a stand off atm.interesting looking as a novice at the qbo and enso ete and where that will go heading into winter? mild or cold who nos and the struggle the pros are having should be an indicator that its up in the air!!! chill and enjoy,whatever the weather

So, I would presume this is suggesting a colder than average Winter then? A high to the N and a low to the S mean E winds...

I think we all know that cold in October is very unlikely to be extreme and at best would only result in some frosty nights and mornings with snow even if it happened only ever likely to be marginal and short lived. However it would at least give us a feeling that Winter is approaching and to be frank make it seem much more seasonal. I always think that by Halloween it should feel cold as well and Bonfire Night is also a time that's associated with having to wrap up warm for. I know at the end of the day even if we had cold weather now it by no means indicates snowmagedon come actual Winter but it would at least psychologically give us the feeling that there could be a good Winter approaching. Whereas mild weather now can give you the feeling of more of the same. I know this isn't necessarily so but what it's like now can certainly either boost or knock confidence.

Stunningly clear sky this morning - Caithness bathed in crisp pink light!

Well there is some guidance MWB It's tending to keep positive anomalies in the Iceland area whilst declining the Scandinavian block and thus returning the upper flow to the westerly quadrant.and perhaps with temps nudging a little above average.

One can hope so. Unless you belong to the mild gang led by the infamous Knocks. I think we're due an exceptionally cold February I believe 2012 was the last cold one here - a sustained cold assault from the north and east from December to late Febuary would be wonderful. If only I could script it.

Walking on water. Or under it.

It was the third largest drop from one month to another. Not surprisingly the seven largest drops occur in either Sep to Oct or Oct to Nov. and this increases to nine out of ten of the ten largest drops, Nov to Dec enters at that point. 1. September 1740 (14.0) to October 1740 (5.3) managed 8.7. 2. October 1807 (11.4) to November 1807 (2.9) was 8.5 3. September 1895 (15,4) to October 1895 (7.1) was 8.3. 4. October 1921 (12.8) to November 1921 (4.6) fell 8.2 5. October 1684 (11.0) to November 1684 (3.0) was 8.0 6. October 1851 (10.8) to November 1851 (3.1) was 7.7 7. October 1861 (11.8) to November 1861 (4.2) was 7.6 t8 October 1679 (11.0) to November 1679 (3.5) was 7.5 t8 September 1880 (14.5) to October 1880 (7.0) was 7.5 t8 November 1981 (7.8) to December 1981 (0.3) was 7.5 The largest drops in all twelve pairs of consecutive months are Jan to Feb 5.0 (1983) 6.7 to 1.7 Feb to Mar 4.0 (1883) 5.9 to 1.9 Mar to Apr 1.6 (1780) 7.9 to 6.3 Apr to May 0.6 (1755) 10.0 to 9.4 May to Jun 0.5 (1833) 15.1 to 14.6 June to July 2.0 (1858) 16.8 to 14.8 and 1676 (16 to 14) July to Aug 3.6 (2006) 19.7 to 16.1 Aug to Sep 6.4 (1807) 16,9 to 10.5 Sep to Oct 8.7 (1740) 14.0 to 5.3 Oct to Nov 8.5 (1807) 11.4 to 2.9 Nov to Dec 7.5 (1981) 7.8 to 0.3 Dec to Jan 7.1 (1828-29) 7.4 to 0.3

I have done a search and cant find this person ? Are they on the forum ? However I have already told the mother-in-law ,we cant come over on boxing day because of the forecast for heavy snow. So like last year the 93 year old is going to walk the 12 miles to our house.

I'm afraid stats can only be a guide,only one person knows what this winter is going to do.Mother Nature will i'm sure frustrate,tease and lead us up many a false trail over the coming months,but that's what makes it so interesting. It's only weather by the way though so everybody should be entitled to their view,banter..oh yes,more than that,no,out of order no matter how strong your view is..It is the silly season so we better enjoy it!

Well, its time for me (And many on here!) to come out of my Summer hibernation! Hopes for Winter 2016/2017? After the horrible (Mild) couple of winters we've had to endure, I'm hoping for at least two weeks (Occuring around Mid-December) of snow, cold, ice, the whole shi-bang to happen. Even a bit of mist and fog will beat last Winter, no problem, and thats saying something! So yeah, I'm with the majority who are hoping for a cold and snowy winter. Looking at all sypnoptics for a cold winter, we have the follwing (So far- current of 7th Oct 2016): -Low Solar Activy? Check! -Advancing Eurasia Snow Cover? Check! (Needs to advance 60N) -More Active Hurricane Season? Check! (Thoughts with the people of Hiati!) -ENSO - Netural, but on "Weak LaNina side - Enhances more blocking! -QBO? Doing something strange - Still in wQBO - Slowily going into eQBO though! -Strat? Well not cold yet, but will rapidly cooling down during October and November. -NAO? Exspected not to be as active as the last couple of winters! Currently, the AO has gone negative and, as the brillant @StevenMurr has been alluding to, is something which corelates to a "blocked" winter. I have this quote from the "Model Forecasting Forum" which yet expands on the October -AO theory: blizzard81: Absolutely. Many of our harsh winters have been preceded by blocked Octobers - the Octobers of 46, 62, 78, 85, 09 to name just a few :-) ^^^^^We all know what happenened in those Winters, don't we? Anyway, lets just wait and see! It's gonna be a hell of a roller-coaster ride, no doubt! ~mpkio2~

So.... based on the assumption that the AO comes in sub -1.5 for the month the winter best fit analogue would be 2012/13- The wildcard being the QBO - as it was recorded westerly again in September - although it didnt change that much from August > Sept toward any more positive- Also the solar flux this winter will be lower- as it stands ( as a prediction based on the oct monthly AO ) theres an above average chance of at least one Winter month with an AO below -2.5, correlating around 0.7 to the NAO state... if I was a betting man there appears to be an above average chance of at least 1 below average month - A bit like last year - December a very high probability that it was going to be +VE its not about definates - its about probabilities- S

Living in the southeast I would love a 1987 set up with a scandi high, strong north east winds, sea effect snow and sub zero days followed by a few channel lows for good measure. Not too much to ask?