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The battle of the seasons... Big summer heat still holding across the west of the USA, and the bitter cold starting to bottle up across the pole.....ready to spill its way down to the UK Greece for the winter months!

Interesting as the CFS majority of the time has been going for a below average October, T2M wise.

GFS and UKMO still showing the jet angled sw to ne bringing pulses of warmer air across the south between the occasional fronts. Days 3 and 4 Looks quite decent with warm sunshine towards the end of the week with maximums in the low 20'c quite possible in favoured spots. We do see those fronts then, coming through by Sunday with some rain before more ridging from the Azores high. This looks to be the continuing pattern as we go into next week before signs of the jet flattening out somewhat and winds turning more westerly bringing more of a cooler Atlantic feel. 2m Temp. and rainfall graph for C.England shows that gradual cooling off expected in week 2 although at present there is still a lot of dry weather expected away from that north western corner where the Atlantic systems continue to be more active.

The joy i felt today was something special,over 5hrs in 36c plus temps in a room with no ventilation ,no ac obviously,mosture dripping off the walls and to walk out to that loving wrap of cool 15c air was fantastic,long long may in continue.....very selfish i know.

Good, had enough of above average temperatures.

Its great to have interesting postings on a forum which is the best and interesting around ,And yes the silly season will soon be upon us ,wish we had this Forum 30/40 years ago i could have saved money on Met office Fax charts being posted ,mind you still that uncertainty at five days out ,currently things i think becoming more mobile as October approaches ,its great to be able to look in more as family commitments have now improved with elderly relatives ,looking forward to the silly season ,cheers all .

Looks like some firming up on details now. What tentatively looked like a build of pressure may be scuppered by the deepening low. Looks pretty windy at times, especially so in the NW. Some warmer interludes in the SE.

The chart Matt uses is based on a single run of the CFSv2 rather than a multi-run mean such is the chart I posted yesterday - but the general theme is similar so the model seems to be holding fairly steady at the moment. There are hints of a generally north-westerly pattern from GloSea5 too. Just how soon it sets in, though, is far from clear. Note that by 'generally' I mean with the usual variations around, flows from the NW being the most frequent. The question is then whether to place much stock in the models or not. That's where the research comes in and where I am seeing some very interesting signals - but as you know, I can't give those away, sorry!

Morning campers Much the same (again) today. All depends on how the high builds over the UK as to how nice it may or may not end up. GFS builds it in: Still there at 312, turning fairly warm too:

Whilst it's a bit quiet in the thread i thought for Winter lovers it is of some interest to view the latest GFS Op.run NH view to see the first signs of the building Arctic cold modeled over N.Siberia as we progress through to month end. 2 images at the 850hPa level- first at T24hrs and then at T240hrs showing the gradual spread south of sub-zero temperatures over there. this area, apart from Greenland, is usually the area to see the first lying snow of the approaching Winter. A look at the temperatures expected at the surface over the next 2 weeks so in a few days the region will go below zero-day and night as the cold settles in. Early days and just for fun really but we can see already the effects of the sun going below the horizon in the high Arctic as the upper air cools rapidly and the Polar Vortex starts to expand as we go pass the equinox.

This is a short validation report on my summer forecast published in this thread on 16th of May. The temperature forecast was generally good and somewhat conservative. I gave a CET of 15.9 overall, and reality was 16.4 C. The summer was expected to rank 79th warmest out of 358 all time, and ranked 39th. Of the more recent summers (since 1949) the prediction ranked 19th out of 68, but reality was 12th warmest. The monthly estimates were 14.8 (0.5 below actual), 16.8 (0.1 below) and 16.2 (0.8 below) for an average monthly error of 0.5 C, in each case somewhere between 1981-2010 normal values and what was actually recorded. The forecast began to falter more towards the end of August which was a very warm spell for most. Comments about the anomaly pattern being such that northern areas would not be as relatively cool compared to southern areas probably did not show much skill, the higher anomalies were in the southeast but it's probably true that parts of the southwest came in relatively closer to average. Predicted warm spells ran earlier than what actually happened, if I had gone with a two week lag it would have verified. Also, I said that the pattern might cough up one very warm day like 2015 did, and that certainly happened (record high 23.6 on 20th July). The predictive discussion of precip appears to be fairly good, perhaps some readers could help me out on this, but I went with the idea of a wet summer in parts of the south trending to dry in parts of Scotland. From what I've seen and read on line, the actual patterns were more complicated but there were certainly very wet spells in the south and as mentioned in the discussion, in northern France which saw severe flooding in June. Mid-July and late August were given as particularly wet possible periods, not sure if these stood out against other candidates or not. The prediction was based on a muted blocking pattern with occasional weak zonal periods, and this is about how the circulation behaved, there were frequent spells of southerly winds making their best impact in counties east of a Hampshire to south Yorkshire line, and I was probably expecting perhaps more southeasterly component at times, than what actually happened, but the weak zonal periods that did develop were about what I had in mind. In North America, what actually happened was a widespread warm anomaly with a trend to cooler anomalies in the west towards the end of the season, and a displacement of the core of heat from the west-central states early in the season to the east coast by August. The hurricane seasonal forecast is ongoing and seems en route to some validity with one hurricane landfall already, an event not seen for several years of general sparse tropical activity. There was even a comment in the forecast that if it had a bias it was conservative and the expected error was towards warmer temperatures. So on that basis, I am reasonably pleased with the outcome of this forecast. Working on a winter forecast, I figure the autumn will continue to be generally mild and occasionally stormy, at least to the last third of November (nudge, nudge, wink, wink). In the longer term, some years with summers of very similar mean CET to 2016 include 1775, 1783, and 1794. All of the winters that followed those three were exceptionally cold. So this is a good sign perhaps, not sure what my research is going to tell me during the coming month, back in October to reveal my 2016-17 winter forecast.

October C.E.T. averages and extremes 20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985 20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011 13.3 ... warmest month 2001 13.1 ... second warmest month 2005 13.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 2006 12.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831 12.5 ... 2013 and 2014 CET 12.3 ... tied 13th and warnest of 18th century 1731 11.3 ... mean 2001-2015 11.0 ... 2015 CET 10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2015, also 2012 CET 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692 6.4 .... second coldest 1817 5.3 .... coldest 1740 0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895 ___________________________________________________________________________ Enter your October forecast in this thread before end of Friday 30th September without penalty, or during the first three days of October with increasing late penalties applied. Good luck.

Today's models suggesting the atlantic will power up somewhat next week, kicking into touch ridge development from the SW and more significantly ushering a generally much cooler spell of weather. Indeed signs the azores high may be forced to ridge NW and the trough becomes slow moving and anchors itself down across the country locked in place by height rises to the NW, end result would be a chilly NW flow as we approach October. All along way off, and the next few days promise further rather quiet conditions, with wettest cloudiest conditions reserved for the NW, whilst the SE holds onto generally fine pleasant weather with respectable temps for late September.

A Thames freeze-over late on. A cold 7.9C.

ECM has much more in the way of low pressure interaction - thus preventing the high from becoming as dominant as the GFS run. I guess as we move nearer the time these difference will be ironed out!

Keep it going Matt, nicely presented for experienced and less so is how I see your postings-thanks It could be even more read come the 'silly season'-which we all know is getting closer.

This weeks syntopic guidance blog from Matt is online now: Synoptic Guidance - The Week Ahead - 19th September

There may have been a few more spotless days but I wouldn't agree about the much weaker part where geomagnetic activity is concerned. In that respect, activity was stronger last year than in the year of maximum. It takes a while to wind down. 2014 2016 to date. Compare the Bartels music diagram for 2009 - that's a signature we want to get to for further testing the theory of cold winters at solar minimum. Sources. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/

These charts are coming up again and again for the end of the month. Perhaps humidity rather than heat will be the theme unless the high pushes further north. However the Atlantic is looking a lot more active now - albeit on a SW-NE axis so still a warmish pattern the further south and east one is - so I think high pressure is going to have its work cut out to get established right through the country. I would also add a very alternative cluster is showing up on the GEFS ensembles, which shows low pressure barrelling through Scandinavia between T240 and T288 - the GFS 06Z is on the same page as this: and of course the ECM op hinted that this might be its next step after D10, too: So possibly some warmer days to end September but could it then be all change for October, with pressure finally rising towards Iceland and a much cooler W to NW being permitted?

SAI theory is based on the rate of advance south of 60N with the highest correlation being about 7th Oct-7th Nov. It's not performed the last two winters really however i'd say that the advance in 2014 was an anomaly because the starting position was so high even if we kept the gradient we wanted.

I wish we could all stop posting their links on here to be honest. They are nothing more than clickbait and as weather enthusiasts we should be doing all that we can to reduce their publicity, not increase it. I agree entirely with you @crazysnowcatz4. They make a mockery of meteorology and just add fuel to the "forecasters always get it wrong" fallacy.

Like I said further up the thread I am not really a fan of this subject and it's effects on the UK 5 thousand miles away. But I find it interesting to see the progress of the snow cover and how early it covers Siberia. It's mild at the moment by day in most areas but certainly a large drop in temps over the next week across the Sakha Republic in Russia. No doubt there will be widespread snow cover in the next 7-10 days. Temps will be struggling to get above freezing this time next week and will probably stay that way until April

The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11229-016-1198-6 (Open Access)

Nick Stokes has written a piece on HADCRUT 4 updates CRUTEM (HADCRUT) versions are documented and accessible https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/crutem-hadcrut-versions-are-documented.html

Sunset was due to be 7:12pm yesterday here. Because of the dank,cloudy and rain it was dark here just before 7pm. The slide to autumn well underway now.

16.9 to the 19th 3.0c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Oct 2016 to Wednesday 19 Oct 2016: There is currently very low confidence in the details through October, however the most probable scenario is for a continuation of the unsettled weather. Bands of rain are likely to cross the country with stronger winds at times, these intermixed with some drier episodes. Northwestern parts should see the wettest weather and stronger winds, with southeastern parts favouring the best of any drier weather, though still perhaps some rain at times. Temperatures probably averaging out near normal, though during any colder spells overnight frosts becoming increasingly likely, mainly in the north. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Goodbye winter chill: Britain set for MAJOR HEAT SPELL as hot air sweeps in next week http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/712206/UK-weather-hot-spell-heatwave-September-continent

Looks like the high pressure finally after 3 weeks of control is giving up (?) and the power of Atlantic is coming back, Both ECMWF, GFS and GEM agree on this. Below normal temperature for the first week of October also

Looks like I'm stuck under the only bit off rain in the region more or less. Wish it was winter, would probably fall as snow in the heavy bursts lol.

A nice, still and misty morning here. My eyes turn to Majorca over the next week where I will be holidaying. If this is anything to go by, then I could well be seeing some incredible storms out there!

Shetland last night.

not much yet but there should be significant increases in siberia over the next week to 10 days. watch this space.....

The monthly looks more like that, albeit with a suggestion of the flow tending more toward the NW at times: Big changes in the second half perhaps?

Must say tonight's Ecm is looking very amplified and increasingly benign, even possibly for parts of Scotland and N Ireland, as we go through next week owing to that huge swathe of high pressure down over Southern Europe which seemingly refuses to do a hike. Can only hope at this early stage that this feature will not become a major player during the upcoming season.

Pretty much a west or southwesterly flow throughout tonight's ECM the odd low gets close enough to bring some windier and wetter spells (Sunday could be the day to watch out for) but most pass to the north or west with temperatures around or a bit above average

The Geomagnetic Blitz of September 1941 https://eos.org/features/the-geomagnetic-blitz-of-september-1941 Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. The illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather.

For whatever reason, the latest from CFSv2 is keen on a very settled first half of October: You may dream of chilly nights, foggy mornings and mellow sunshine, but you may not take this model too seriously

We're running the vote for the competition over the Autumn We extended the deadline a few times for people, and due to this didn't start the votes just after the tours as planned, then decided a good time to run it would be once summer was out of the way.

and this year it's been extended from just WIND, to wind, rain/flooding and snow!

Ahhh I love this thread soooo much! Makes the run to winter so much more exciting!

2016/2017 storm names

Hey folks. Moving to Newcastle today, so time to update my location and start posting here. Looking forward to a winter with much greater snow potential than I've been used to in southern Ireland!

The CFS model has been showing December blocking for a while now and is backed up by the Glosea. I have found if the seasonal models converge on a +NAO then it's nearly always nailed on. It is encouraging we have some consensus towards a HLB in the seasonal modelling thus far.

Over two hours of thunder & lightning. There wasn't much rain to begin with, then the heavens opened! Not as much fell here as it did, East of the region, but it was how quickly it totalled up. 21.6mm falling very fast! It is a lot fresher today, and windy. It still made 20°C Temp: 17.3°C - Hum: 61% - Dew: 9.7°C - Bar: 1015.88hPa - Wind: NW @ 10mph.

the following is from further research which I believe can be a significant in our understanding of how our climate changes over time. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently received a renewed attention. In our particular case, the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation. The abstract can be found here. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453

That is very much a post-watershed image. Phwoar.

Lower solar activity does seem to promote more of a -ve NAO type pattern, as we saw in the winters during the recent solar minimum. So it may increase the chances of colder and snowier winter weather around here. Back during the actual "Little Ice-age", global temperatures were generally about 1C cooler, and the Arctic had much more ice and was 4-5C colder during winter. So even if we saw the same weather patterns that brought the bitter winters of the LIA, they wouldn't be able to bring the same depth of cold today. As for global warming or cooling, there is no evidence to suggest that it will reverse the global warming trend. Even during the last minimum, which was the longest/quietest in a century, global temperatures and accumulated heat continued unabated. Here are a few studies that looked at how a grand solar minimum might effect global temperatures during the 21st century. On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes? Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the 6 Maunder Minimum stop global warming?

Wavy Gravy ..... the NOAA ENSO blog always pick such cute titles. What did one ocean say to the other? Nothing, it just waved. If you look at the map of one-week average sea surface temperature, you may have noticed an interesting feature along the eastern and central equatorial Pacific: a series of waves along the edge of the “cold tongue”. The cold tongue (that term always gives me the heebie-jeebies) is a narrow strip of cooler water right along the Equator that’s present during neutral and La Niña conditions, and is strongest between July and November. It comes from deep ocean water that rises up near the South American coast, and is then spread westward by surface currents. El Niño’s warming reduces the cold tongue. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2016-enso-update-wavy-gravy